Yara International Asa · OSL:YAR
Yara International Asa — Nordea lunch presentation (September 2023)
7 slides from Yara International Asa's conference presentation, Sep 15, 2023
Slide 1: Market update September 2023
Market update September 2023
Slide 2: Fob Egypt rebounded, but buyers retreat, prices anyway somewhere above USD400/mt
Fob Egypt rebounded, but buyers retreat, prices anyway somewhere above USD400/mt, in a USD425-450/mt fob range? 500 450 400 USD/ton 350 300 250 200 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Urea inland proxy China Urea fob Baltic Urea fo
Slide 3: USA and India both important negative drivers for nitrogen in 22/23
USA and India both important negative drivers for nitrogen in 22/23 USA imported 2 million tons less N during 22/23 than the season before, on a net basis, that is a lot! Some due to stronger production, estimated to have increased by 0.7 million tons N, but also due to large carry-over inventories
Slide 4: Urea export from China – picking up some pace
Urea export from China – picking up some pace, will be strong in September, Q4 and onwards a question mark 2021 2022 2023 6000 5000 4000 kt product 3000 2000 1000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Slide 5: European natural gas (TTF)
10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Jan 2021 Feb Mar Apr USD/millbtu May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2022 European natural gas (TTF ) Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2023 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2024 Feb Mar Forward Sep 12 Apr May Jun
Slide 6: Cereal index/urea index – dropping over recent months as urea prices increased
Cereal index/urea index – dropping over recent months as urea prices increased Index 1.4 Urea more affordable 1.3 (increased application rate) 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Urea less affordable 0.5 (reduced application rate) 0.4 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-1
Slide 7: Peak of capacity additions is behind us
Peak of capacity additions is behind us Global urea capacity additions ex. China 1 (mt) India Russia Iran Algeria USA Nigeria Australia Others Production 6.7 6.2 5.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.2 2.3% consumption 2.2 growth2 1.0 0.4 0.7 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1) Urea proje
Yara International — Nordea lunch presentation (September 2023) on 6ix