Alcoa Corporation · NYSE:AA

Alcoa — Q2 2023 Earnings Presentation

40 slides from Alcoa's earnings presentation, Jul 19, 2023

  1. Slide 1: 2nd Quarter Earnings

    nd 2 Quarter Earnings Alcoa Corporation July 19, 2023 1

  2. Slide 2: Cautionary Statement regarding Forward-Looking Statements

    Cautionary Statement regarding Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains statements that relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements inclu

  3. Slide 3: Important information

    Important information Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation contains reference to certain financial measures that are not calculated and presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (GAAP). Alcoa Corporation believes that the presentation of thes

  4. Slide 4: Roy Harvey

    Roy Harvey President and Chief Executive Officer 4

  5. Slide 5: Continued focus on operations amid market challenges

    Continued focus on operations amid market challenges Key takeaways for 2Q23 2Q23 Takeaways ▪ One serious injury (FSI-A) year to date ▪ Financial results for 2Q23 − Net loss attributable to Alcoa of $102 million; Adjusted net loss of $62 million − Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items of $137 milli

  6. Slide 6: Molly Beerman

    Molly Beerman Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer 6

  7. Slide 7: 2Q23 EPS of $(0.57), Adjusted EPS of $(0.35)

    2Q23 EPS of $(0.57), Adjusted EPS of $(0.35) Quarterly income statement summary 1Q23 2Q23 Change Third Party Realized prices ($/mt) Realized primary aluminum price $3,079 $2,924 $(155) Realized alumina price $371 $363 $(8) Income statement highlights (millions, except per share amounts) Revenue $2,6

  8. Slide 8: Metal prices and Alumina segment costs are key impacts

    Metal prices and Alumina segment costs are key impacts Sequential changes in Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items, $M 240 (9) 5 1Q23 2Q23 Change 24 (9) 20 Alumina1 $103 $33 $(70) (21) (70) Aluminum1 184 110 (74) 33 137 Transformation (8) (17) (9) (76) Intersegment (8) 31 39 eliminations Other cor

  9. Slide 9: Taxes, capital expenditures, working capital are top cash uses

    Taxes, capital expenditures, working capital are top cash uses Key financial metrics and cash flow information, 2Q23 and YTD Key financial metrics 2Q23 YTD Cash flow information, $M 871 40 Other 2Q23 Days 31 Pension/OPEB2 2023 YTD Return on equity 36 working capital Cash dividend 50 Interest payment

  10. Slide 10: Working capital change now a source of cash

    Working capital change now a source of cash 2Q23 sequential quarter cash flow information 3/31/23 to 6/30/23 Cash changes, $M 2Q23 Commentary 20 137 ▪ Cash income taxes of $155 million 1,138 included $115 million of prior year taxes; (155) 32 prior year tax payments predominantly 35 990 (115) (46) c

  11. Slide 11: Key input prices continuing to decline

    Key input prices continuing to decline Key raw material global market prices for refining and smelting, 2Q22 to 2Q23 Average market prices of key raw materials1 -44% -30% 0% 766 789 1,296 1,291 552 431 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 Caustic, $/dmt Coke, $/

  12. Slide 12: 2023 Outlook

    2023 Outlook FY23 Key metrics as of June 30, 2023 Income statement excl. special items impacts Cash flow impacts 2Q23 YTD Actual FY23 Outlook 2Q23 YTD Actual FY23 Outlook Alumina shipments (Mmt) 6.0 12.7 – 12.9 Pension / OPEB cash funding $37M ~ $75M Aluminum shipments (Mmt) 1.2 2.5 – 2.6 Stock repu

  13. Slide 13: Roy Harvey

    Roy Harvey President and Chief Executive Officer 13

  14. Slide 14: Maintaining focus on key performance drivers

    Maintaining focus on key performance drivers Update on operations Western Australia Alumina ▪ Mine plan approval process ongoing ▪ Alumar refinery conveyer outage resolved and production reestablished; other major maintenance work finishing in 3Q23 ▪ Providing additional data, implementing enhanced

  15. Slide 15: Improvement expected over time; Alcoa producer of choice

    Improvement expected over time; Alcoa producer of choice Global aluminum market dynamics and Alcoa’s position Mixed current market; improvement expected Alcoa commercial position Current status Future expectation ▪ Alcoa to remain a primary aluminum producer of choice Supply − Domestic producer of c

  16. Slide 16: Positioned well for future opportunities in aluminum and alumina

    Positioned well for future opportunities in aluminum and alumina Alcoa levers for future improvement Operations, commercial Production levels Technology innovations improvements ▪ Optimize Australia bauxite ▪ In process: ▪ ELYSISTM mining and return to improved − Alumar smelter restart − Zero carbon

  17. Slide 17: Focused on improvement

    Focused on improvement 2Q23 Summary ▪ Financial: Net loss attributable to Alcoa of $102 million; Adjusted net loss of $62 million; Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items of $137 million; Cash of $1.0 billion ▪ Operations: Focused on improved operating performance throughout the portfolio and contin

  18. Slide 18: Appendix

    Appendix 18

  19. Slide 19: Maximizing value creation through balanced uses of cash

    Maximizing value creation through balanced uses of cash Capital allocation framework and value creation considerations Capital allocation framework Maximize value creation Return cash to stockholders Maintain strong balance sheet through the cycle ▪ 2Q23 dividend payments totaled $18 million Transfo

  20. Slide 20: Quarterly income statement

    Quarterly income statement Quarterly income statement for 2Q22, 1Q23 and 2Q23 Prior Year Sequential Millions, except realized prices and per share amounts 2Q22 1Q23 2Q23 Change Change Realized primary aluminum price ($/mt) $3,864 $3,079 $2,924 $(940) $(155) Realized alumina price ($/mt) $442 $371 $3

  21. Slide 21: Special items

    Special items Breakdown of special items by income statement classification – gross basis Millions, except per share amounts 2Q22 1Q23 2Q23 Description of significant 2Q23 special items Net income (loss) attributable to Alcoa Corporation $549 $(231) $(102) Earnings (loss) per share1 $2.95 $(1.30) $(

  22. Slide 22: Quarterly income statement excluding special items

    Quarterly income statement excluding special items Quarterly income statement excluding special items for 2Q22, 1Q23 and 2Q23 Prior Year Sequential Millions, except realized prices and per share amounts 2Q22 1Q23 2Q23 Change Change Realized primary aluminum price ($/mt) $3,864 $3,079 $2,924 $(940) $

  23. Slide 23: 2Q23 Financial summary

    2Q23 Financial summary Three months ending June 30, 2023, excluding special items Intersegment Other Alcoa Millions Alumina3 Aluminum3,4 Transformation eliminations corporate Corporation Total revenue $1,291 $1,792 $4 $(407) $4 $2,684 Third-party revenue $894 $1,788 $2 - - $2,684 Adjusted EBITDA1 $3

  24. Slide 24: 2Q23 Segment Adjusted EBITDA drivers

    2Q23 Segment Adjusted EBITDA drivers Segment Adjusted EBITDA sequential changes, $M Segment Segment Adjusted Adjusted EBITDA Metal Raw Production EBITDA 1Q23 Currency prices API materials Energy Price/mix Volume costs Other 2Q23 Alumina $103 (1) 0 24 11 27 (7) (30) (90) (4) $33 Aluminum $184 (10) (7

  25. Slide 25: Aluminum value chain

    Aluminum value chain 2023 YTD Alcoa shipments by product type Bauxite Alumina Aluminum 21.9 Mdmt shipments 6.0 Mmt shipments 1.2 Mmt shipments Intersegment Third party 0% 17% Intersegment 33% 67% 83% Third party 100% Intrasegment Third party 25

  26. Slide 26: Composition of alumina and aluminum production costs

    Composition of alumina and aluminum production costs Alcoa 2Q23 production cash costs Alumina refining Bauxite Input Inventory Pricing FY23 annual cost 20% cost flow convention sensitivity Conversion 37% Caustic soda 5 - 6 Months Quarterly, Spot $9M per $10/dmt 19% Quarterly, 91% with Caustic Natura

  27. Slide 27: 2023 Business information

    2023 Business information Estimated annual Segment Adjusted EBITDA sensitivities $Millions AUD BRL CAD EUR ISK NOK LME API Midwest Europe Japan + 0.01 + 0.10 + 0.01 + 0.01 + 10 + 0.10 Segment + $100/mt + $10/mt + $100/mt + $100/mt + $100/mt 0.671 4.961 1.341 1.091 137.541 10.691 Alumina 103 (23) 8 (

  28. Slide 28: Currency impacts on Segment Adjusted EBITDA

    Currency impacts on Segment Adjusted EBITDA Currency balance sheet revaluation and EBITDA sensitivities impact ($M, except currencies) AUD BRL CAD EUR ISK NOK Total 6/30/23 currencies 0.66 4.86 1.33 1.09 136.44 10.75 2Q23 currency avg. 0.67 4.96 1.34 1.09 137.54 10.69 2Q23 Balance sheet revaluation

  29. Slide 29: Additional business considerations

    Additional business considerations Items expected to impact Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted net income for 3Q23 Expected sequential impacts on Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items, excluding indexed sales prices or currency impacts: ▪ In the Alumina segment, we expect $10 million unfavorable impact

  30. Slide 30: Investments summary

    Investments summary Investments listing and income statement location Ownership Carrying value as of Income statement location of Investee Country Nature of investment4 interest June 30, 2023 equity earnings ELYSIS Limited Partnership Canada Aluminum smelting technology 48.235% Ma’aden Aluminium Com

  31. Slide 31: Alcoa sustainability goals

    Alcoa sustainability goals Alcoa strategic long-term sustainability goals, baseline and progress Goal Description 2015 Baseline 2022 Progress Zero fatalities and serious injuries (life-threatening, life-altering injury or 5 fatal or serious 0 fatalities and 1 serious Safety illness) injuries/illness

  32. Slide 32: Production and capacity information

    Production and capacity information Alcoa Corporation annual consolidated amounts as of June 30, 2023 Alumina refining, kmt Aluminum smelting, kmt Facility Country Capacity Curtailed Facility Country Capacity Curtailed Kwinana Australia 2,190 438 Portland Australia 197 49 Pinjarra Australia 4,700 -

  33. Slide 33: Valuation framework key considerations

    Valuation framework Valuation framework key considerations LTM ending 6/30/23 Adj. EBITDA excl. special items Economic value using market multiple of: i. AWAC joint venture, minus small portions of AWAC JV in Aluminum and + Alumina segment Transformation $264M ii. Ownership in certain mines and refi

  34. Slide 34: Adjusted EBITDA reconciliations

    Adjusted EBITDA reconciliations Millions 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 FY22 1Q23 2Q23 Net income (loss) attributable to Alcoa $549 $(746) $(395) $(123) $(231) $(102) Add: Net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interest 125 (23) (25) 161 (1) (19) Provision for income taxes 234 40 180 664 52 22 Other (inco

  35. Slide 35: Free cash flow reconciliation

    Free cash flow reconciliation Millions 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 FY22 1Q23 2Q23 Cash provided from operations $536 $134 $118 $822 $(163) $(13) Capital expenditures (107) (128) (171) (480) (83) (115) Free cash flow 429 6 (53) 342 (246) (128) Contributions from noncontrolling interest 37 67 64 214 86 36 Distribu

  36. Slide 36: Net debt reconciliations

    Net debt reconciliations 2Q22 1Q23 2Q23 Alcoa Alcoa Alcoa $M Cons. NCI Prop. Cons. NCI Prop. Cons. NCI Prop. Short-term borrowings $75 $30 $45 $25 $- $25 $10 $- $10 Long-term debt due within one year 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 Long-term debt, less amount due within one year 1,725 - 1,725 1,806 32 1,774 1,808

  37. Slide 37: DWC working capital and Days working capital reconciliations

    DWC working capital and Days working capital reconciliations Millions 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 Receivables from customers $898 $749 $778 $753 $702 Add: Inventories 2,556 2,400 2,427 2,395 2,400 Less: Accounts payable, trade 1,752 1,590 1,757 1,489 1,491 DWC working capital $1,702 $1,559 $1,448 $1,65

  38. Slide 38: Annualized Return on Equity (ROE)

    Annualized Return on Equity (ROE) ROE Reconciliation and calculation information as of June 30, 2023 Millions 1H22 1H23 (Net Loss/Income Attributable to Alcoa + Special Items1) Numerator: ROE % = X 100 Net income (loss) attributable to Alcoa Corporation $1,018 $(333) (Total Assets – Total Liabilitie

  39. Slide 39: Glossary of terms

    Glossary of terms Abbreviations listed in alphanumeric order Abbreviation Description Abbreviation Description % pts Percentage points FOB WA Freight on board Western Australia 1H## Six months ending June 30 FY## Twelve months ending December 31 1Q## Three months ending March 31 GAAP Accounting prin

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