Elia Group Sa/nv · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group Sa/nv — Investor Presentation (June 2023)
78 slides from Elia Group Sa/nv's investor presentation, Jun 5, 2023
Slide 1: Plenary meeting of the Elia Users' Group
Users’ Group Plenary meeting of the Elia Users’ Group Monday, June 5th
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 1. Studie Energyville/Febeliec 2. UG 2.0 – voorstel hervorming 3. Feedback werkgroepen 1. WG Adequacy 2. WG Balancing (incl. TF Princess Elisabeth zone) 3. WG Belgian Grid 4. WG Consumer Centric Marktet Design 5. WG System Operations & European Market 4. Diversen 1. Plenaire meeting 13/09/202
Slide 3: Perspective 2050 study website
https://perspective2050.energyville.be/
Slide 4: The challenge in Belgium and EU
The challenge in Belgium and EU Percentage of different sectors in Belgian emissions 2020 (106 Mton CO2eq) Not including emissions for international shipping and aviation Other Energy balance 2019 (TWh) Industry (combustion) EU (TWh) BE (TWh) Waste Agriculture Gross available energy ~17000 ~750 Ener
Slide 5: TIMES-BE model - simplistic
TIMES-BE model - simplistic One large techno-economic optimization including all technologies, energy carriers and processes
Slide 6: The EnergyVille TIMES Be model
The EnergyVille TIMES Be model • Setting a new benchmark • Most detailed, full system optimization model of the Belgian energy system, to date • Cross-vector: covering energy use (fossil fuels, renewables, clean molecules and electricity), feedstock • Cross-sector: covering all supply (refineries, p
Slide 7: TIMES-BE model: Industrial sector representation
TIMES-BE model: Industrial sector representation
Slide 8: The storylines
The 3 storylines Central Clean Electrification Industrial product demand stable Molecules • Direct access to additional 16 GW of offshore wind potential + Population growth buildings, transport Technical renewable potential: 104 GW rooftop PV, 20 GW onshore, 8 GW offshore wind Interconnection
Slide 9: Final energy demand Belgium
Final energy demand Belgium Final energy demand Final Energy Demand (TWh) decreases bya 4 Zon | third : 250 la regardless of the scenario. 200 — 150 Electricity demand more than m0 50 doubles} ; 2020 2030 2050 . . Fossil Electrici Biomass - Biofuels District Heat Clean Molecules in the 3 scenarios.
Slide 10: Residential & commercial
Residential & commercial Renovation & electrification
Slide 11: Where to build heating grids?
Where to build heating grids? • Public data for Flanders • Very location-dependent • Urban Energy Pathfinder https://www.energyville.be/en/research /urban-energy-pathfinder https://www.energyville.be/en/research/ pathopt Publicly available at geopunt.be
Slide 12: Transport
Transport By 2030, investing in more than 2 million Transport - Final Energy Demand (TWh) 100 electric person vehicles would 90 be cost effective and puts us on By 2050, electrification leads to an track to net-zero 2050. efficiency improvement of 80 76% 0 Total energy demand decreases from 100 TWh
Slide 13: Power sector - Generation
Power sector - Generation Power - Generation (TWhe) 240,000 From 2040 onwards the need for flexibility of demand w0,000 NY FA gy x grows drastically: smart charging, heat pump with 100,000 AN FE hydrogen electrolysers. 50,000 = 5 i _ 2020 2030 2050 Fossil Nuclear Biomass Wind Offshore Wind Onshore S
Slide 14: Wholesale price proxy
Wholesale price proxy Access to offshore wind is key!
Slide 15: Annual Belgian energy system costs
Annual Belgian energy system costs • Extra cost wrt 50EUR/ton scenario • 1 to 2-4% of current GDP
Slide 16: Industry – final energy use
Industry — final energy use Until at least 2030, fossil fuel remain Industry - Final Energy Demand (TWh) = 200 dominant i in the industry as final energy ty Nu demand. 140 7 | os By 2050, electrification of industrial io processes leads to an increase of 100 80 x2 co the current electricity demand “
Slide 17: Industry – CO2 emissions
Industry – CO2 emissions 18210 1374 8653 8435 1271 1259
Slide 18: Paths2050: The hydrogen balance
Paths2050: The hydrogen balance • Industry and power system • Synthetic fuels for aviation/maritime • No buildings or road transport
Slide 19: Paths2050: The hydrogen balance
Paths2050: The hydrogen balance • No upscale of green hydrogen production before 2030 • Blue hydrogen can be an interesting transition phase • Import should focus on hydrogen derivates such as ammonia
Slide 20: Taking into account import – export of electricity
Taking into account import – export of electricity • Amount of hours per year with electricity generation cost <40EUR/MWh for electrolysis. TYNDP results are EnergyVille model based on TYNDP data *, ** it is unclear how Agora and PBL results are calculated The TRILATE project: Follow-up project incl
Slide 21: AIDRES WP2: Map industrial sites in the EU27 - RESULT
21 AIDRES WP2: Map industrial sites in the EU27 - RESULT Sector #Production sites Steel 372 Refinery 112 Cement 436 Glass 319 Chemical 258 Fertilisers 39 Total 1536 A production site is the geographical unit that combines production installations from one sector and specific company in space. E.g.,
Slide 22: Fit-for-55 by 2030?
Fit-for-55 by 2030 ? •Renovation & insulation Evaluation limited to CO2 emissions •1,5 M heat pumps • This study does not present policy Buildings projection or prognosis • Belgian CO2 emissions 1990: 120 Mton CO2 emissions excluding net CO2 from LULUCF • Smart charging Transport infrastructure • Ce
Slide 23: More sensitivities
More sensitivities at www.perspective2050.energyville.be • E.g. Small modular nuclear sensitivity with no extra offshore wind available Scenarios with 8 +16GW offshore wind have a structurally lower system cost
Slide 24: Next steps
Next steps The PATHS 2050 coalition scenarios workshops 'Focus topic' • 15-20k€/year for membership fee ~4 years • Scenario definition of simulations Annual presentation Model • Technology driven - press event improvements - 'BE Energy Outlook' scenario modelling • Impact of (European or national) p
Slide 25: Next steps: the Trilate project
Next steps: the Trilate project • Energy Transition Funds • Process modelling (Uliege) • Industrial symbiosis (UGent) • Elia – Fluxys: energy infrastructure needs • Regionalization of hydrogen demand • Link with EnergyVille cross-sectoral modelling • Collaboration with Dutch and German partners
Slide 26: Next steps: the Cirec project
Next steps: the Cirec project • Ongoing energy Transition Funds • VITO teams assess critical material supply • Circularity of material streams for the energy transition
Slide 27: Next steps
Next steps • Energy infrastructure: we need a fundamental re-thinking of the role of energy infrastructure • Follow up project Trilate for long term modelling with Elia and Fluxys • Follow up project Cirec on the role of materials and circularity • European scenarios with EERA community • Cross-bord
Slide 28: Contact emails
Pieter.vingerhoets@energyville.be Wouter.nijs@energyville.be
Slide 29: Hydrogen
Hydrogen • Amendment 13 and definition of green hydrogen via PPA tips the economic balance towards local hydrogen generation, import via shipping will not be competitive. • This may strongly interfere with the ambitions of Belgium as a transit hub for molecules and the efficiency of the energy trans
Slide 30: Carbon capture technologies
Carbon capture technologies • Different literature based costs based on e.g. purity of CO2 stream
Slide 31: Flexibility needs in the energy system
Flexibility needs in the energy system • Growing from 2040 onwards, by 2050 • Hydrogen production in Be remains limited • Central: 18,8 GW • Central: 23 TWh Belgian production and 36 TWh import • Electrification: 5,6 GW • Electrification: Belgian production to 22 TWh and • Clean Molecules: 13,5 GW l
Slide 32: Average electricity production cost
Average electricity production cost Access to more offshore wind and SMR leads to lower production costs • Central scenario leads to average production costs of 94 €/MWh • Electrification scenario leads to lowest production cost of 56 €/MWh, mainly realized by 16 GW of offshore wind availability • C
Slide 33: Scenario overview table
Scenario overview table 2030 2050 Unit Capacity GW 46.07 44.17 45.00 135.17 83.54 128.77 Renewables GW 35.53 35.37 34.95 126.30 76.69 115.67 Fossil GW 7.86 6.10 7.39 0.15 0.17 0.19 Other GW 2.68 2.70 2.66 8.72 6.68 12.91 Nuclear GW 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 5.97 0.00 Other plants GW 0.68 0.70 0.66 0.70 0.
Slide 34: Agenda
Agenda 1. Studie Energyville/Febeliec 2. UG 2.0 – voorstel hervorming 3. Feedback werkgroepen 1. WG Adequacy 2. WG Balancing (incl. TF Princess Elisabeth zone) 3. WG Belgian Grid 4. WG Consumer Centric Marktet Design 5. WG System Operations & European Market 4. Diversen 1. Plenaire meeting 13/09/202
Slide 35: James Matthys-Donnadieu, Chief Officer Customers, Markets and Systems
James Matthys-Donnadieu Chief Officer Customers, Markets and Systems 35
Slide 36: The Users' Group
The Users‘ Group Elia Users‘ Group – current structure Plenary forum* Report back about the working groups’ activities Elia shares information about more strategic issues that are not discussed at working group meetings WG Belgian Grid WG Balancing WG Adequacy WG SO & EU MD WG CCMD Handles issues re
Slide 37: Users' Group: Keep / Improve
Users‘ Group: Elia Users‘ Group – results survey* Keep • Content: feedback from working groups (improvements on format planned) • Membership: limitation to associations • Governance: recommendations to policy makers Improve Reorganisation needed • Content: • 360° view: Integrate view other than Elia
Slide 38: Towards a Users' Group from and for the Users
Towards a Users‘ Group from and for the Users‘ proposed reforms - Challenges to realize the +50% by 2032/34 roadmap Content - Possible 2035-2050 horizontal electricity system evolutions - Discussions & where appropriate recommandations - senior representatives, having clear mandate to represent and
Slide 39: Towards a Users' Group from and for the Users
Towards a Users‘ Group from and for the Users‘ proposed reforms - Challenges to realize the +50% by 2032/34 roadmap Content - Possible 2035-2050 horizontal electricity system evolutions - Discussions & where appropriate recommandations - senior representatives, having clear mandate to represent and
Slide 40: Ambitious European road to decarbonisation will lead to 50% electrification increase
Ambitious european road to decarbonisation will lead to 50% electrification increase in Belgium by 2032 2032 2021 Ambitious +10 TWh electrification Decarbonisation … 55% less GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels +20 TWh Energy efficiency From 9% to 13% reduction of +10 TWh 2022 energy consu
Slide 41: For the next years priorities are clear
For the next 10 years … and challenging … beyond this horizon a lot still priorities are clear… implementation is ahead … needs to be shaped 130 120 TWh 10 year plan 110 90 2020 2025 2030 2032 2035 2040 41 FOUNDATION DEFINITION IMPLMEMENTATION PLAN FUTURE BUILDING
Slide 42: For the next years priorities are clear
For the next 10 years … and challenging … beyond this horizon a lot still priorities are clear… implementation is ahead … needs to be shaped FOUNDATION IMPLMEMENTATION FUTURE BUILDING DEFINITION PLAN 130 120 TWh 10 year plan 110 90 2020 2025 2030 2032 2035 2040 42
Slide 43: Paths to achieve the ambition will require intense interaction
Even if current programs are the foundation of our transition, the paths to achieve the ambition will require intens interaction 2050 FUTURE Offshore Onshore Industrial Industrial Residential Energy mix/new technologies BUILDING Supply chain constraints HVDC technology (…) North Sea Grid dev
Slide 44: Goal of the Users' Group 2.0
Goal of the Users’ Group 2,0: create (mutual) understand, exchange, co- create, recommend….. concerning the evolutions of the horizontal electricity system Understand Exchange User group 2.0 2035 2040 Recommend Co-create
Slide 45: Towards a Users' Group from and for the Users
Towards a Users‘ Group from and for the Users‘ proposed reforms - Challenges to realize the +50% by 2032/34 roadmap Content - Possible 2035-2050 horizontal electricity system evolutions - Discussions & where appropriate recommandations - senior representatives, having clear mandate to represent and
Slide 46: Elia Users' Group: current members
Elia User‘s Group: current members BDRA Aggregator Unions Large users Production Grid Operator
Slide 47: Gathering additional relevant insights
Gathering additional relevant insights Proposed “permanent guest”* • EV Belgium representing complete value chain concerning zero emission mobility => Important source of load increase & flex potential • Fevia Federation of the food industry => Important source of load increase & potential flex prov
Slide 48: Towards a Users' Group from and for the Users
Towards a Users‘ Group from and for the Users‘ proposed reforms - Challenges to realize the +50% by 2032/34 roadmap Content - Possible 2035-2050 horizontal electricity system evolutions - Discussions & where appropriate recommandations - senior representatives, having clear mandate to represent and
Slide 49: Introducing an independent Co-chair
Introducing an independent Co-chair 3 x Plenary meeting/year • Independent, neutral co-chair Topic(s) presented by Elia • Role: • Moderating discussions • Joint agenda determination with Elia Co-chair Topic(s) presented by member/3th • Appointment: party • Elia proposes, UG members approve • Term: •
Slide 50: Do you agree with these principles?
Do you agree with these principles? 50
Slide 51: What is next?
Elia User‘s Group – A Users‘ Group from and for the Users – What is next? June July August Sept Nov Dec 05/06 13/09 19/12 New Members Approach Onboard Co- chairman Approach Onboard Vision UG2.0 Kick-off UG2.0 presented and validated Election co-chairman Internal Revision not necessary with proposed
Slide 52: Questions?
Questions? 52
Slide 53: Agenda
Agenda 1. Studie Energyville/Febeliec 2. UG 2.0 – voorstel hervorming 3. Feedback werkgroepen 1. WG Adequacy 2. WG Balancing (incl. TF Princess Elisabeth zone) 3. WG Belgian Grid 4. WG Consumer Centric Marktet Design 5. WG System Operations & European Market 4. Diversen 1. Plenaire meeting 13/09/202
Slide 54: WG Adequacy
ya group WG Adequacy Oo FE . -—___)
Slide 55: WG Adequacy – Overview of last Meetings
WG Adequacy – Overview of last Meetings Capacity Contract: Feedback Public Consultation LCT*: Functioning Rules – Feedback Public Consultation WG 23/03/2023 CRM** Functioning Rules philosophy #17 External studies CO2 Approach [FOD] CRM Scenarios LCT status update on needs WG 14/04/2023 Cross-border
Slide 56: Main Topics from the last meetings
Main Topics from the last meetings
Slide 57: Main Topics
Main Topics • Public consultation on the Capacity Remuneration Mechanism (CRM) and Low Carbon Tender (LCT) Capacity Contract (06/02/2023 to 06/03/2023) • Elia presented and answered the feedback received from external parties • Differentiation between LCT and CRM • Elia presented the differences bet
Slide 58: Main Topics
Main Topics • CRM proposal on the scenarios, input data and sensitivities • Elia presented how the scenarios and sensitivities encompassing the CRM have been constructed • Elia conducted an adequacy assessment for delivery year 2024-2025 to assess the need to organise a Low Carbon Tender (LCT) • The
Slide 59: Main Topics
Main Topics • Based on a EU decree, every CRM should allow for Cross-Border participation • Elia is working on the Cross- Border CRM with neighbouring countries – France, Germany & the Netherlands • First Cross-Border participation in the Belgian CRM in Delivery Period 2025-26 • The proposed timelin
Slide 60: Main Topics
Main Topics • External studies are ongoing • The cost of capacity study will be kicked off soon • A study about the assessment of net balancing revenues is in preparation • Launch of 2023 CRM Auction Operations • The Ademar platform has been opened for 2023 Auction operations (Prequalification & Fin
Slide 61: WG Balancing
WG Balancing (incl. TF Princess Elisabeth Zone)
Slide 62: WG Balancing 22/03/2023
WG Balancing 22/03/2023 – Public Consultation of Market Suspension Rules – As required by the law, Elia must develop a proposal for rules concerning the suspension and restoration of market activities, in addition to a restoration tariff. A first proposal was submitted in 12/2018, which had been rej
Slide 63: WG Balancing 16/05/2023 (1)
WG Balancing 16/05/2023 (1) – Overview of the 2022 Balancing Volumes & Costs – Elia shared in WG BAL of 16/05/2023 a high-level overview of the 2022 balancing volumes & costs, consisting mainly in the evolution of the volumes and costs of the balancing products (FCR, aFRR, mFRR), the evolution of SI
Slide 64: WG Balancing 16/05/2023 (2)
WG Balancing 16/05/2023 (2) – Incompressibility – Elia presented in WG BAL of 16/05 a few cases of incompressibility (SI > 0) that occurred in March-April, highlighting the root causes (low demand, significant DA solar forecast error, similar situation in neighboring countries…) – To mitigate such e
Slide 65: Task Force Princess Elisabeth Zone (TF PEZ)
Task Force Princess Elisabeth Zone (TF PEZ) Context and scope Inform and consult market players on all relevant aspects related to the Princess Elisabeth Energy Island particularly with regard to: System and balancing integration; Link webpage Market integration; https://www.elia.be/en/users-group/t
Slide 66: WG Belgian Grid
Saiia group WG Belgian Grid Oo FE . -—___)
Slide 67: WG Belgian Grid
WG Belgian Grid Since last plenary meeting: one meeting 17/05 - Tariff proposal 2024-2027: results of public consultation - Access contract: main modifications - Connection contract: main modifications - Incentives: - Hosting capacity maps - MVAr - Cost benefit analysis requirements for generators a
Slide 68: WG Belgian Grid - Tariff proposal 2024-2027
WG Belgian Grid - Tariff proposal 2024-2027 Results of public consultation “Beslissende elementen inzake de voorziene ontwikkelingen in het tariefdossier 2024-2027” - Periode publieke consultatie: 14 februari tot 20 maart ’23 - Consultatie rappport + reacties stakeholder: Beslissende elementen inzak
Slide 69: WG Belgian Grid - contracts
WG Belgian Grid - contracts Access contract Connection contract - Modifications following Regulator’s advice - Parts A & B have been revised and submitted based on: - Harmonize definitions - Regulator’s feedback - Include Multiple BRP - Legislative evolution - Alignment with the Code of Conduct - Te
Slide 70: WG Belgian Grid - incentives
WG Belgian Grid - incentives Roadmap to publication of Hosting Voltage service – incentive MVAr Capacity Maps - Review and recommendations for design optimizations - Continuous activation control - Planning and milestones - Penalties - Recap of Stakeholder comments received - Simplification ~ commun
Slide 71: WG Belgian Grid - incentives
WG Belgian Grid - incentives Incentive CBA Cost benefit analysis on Requirements for Generators applicable on existing and new generating units between 1 and 25 MW - Objectives of the incentive Identify the differences between the prescriptions applicable to existing and new PGMs between 1 and 25
Slide 72: WG Consumer Centric Market Design
WG Consumer Centric Market Design
Slide 73: WG Consumer Centric Market Design
WG Consumer Centric Market Design No meetings organized between last plenary session and today Next meeting planned: 23/06/2023 – 9:30u
Slide 74: WG System Operations & European Market
WG System Operations & European Market
Slide 75: Highlights WG EMD-SO (Q2 2023)
Highlights WG EMD-SO (Q2 2023) European Market Design 1. Feedback Market coupling event 19/04 – Insights in the (local) issues in the capacity calculation process 2. Core Intraday Capacity Calculation project – Info on the regulatory escalation leading to postponement of go-live – Presentation of re
Slide 76: Highlights WG EMD-SO (Q2 2023)
Highlights WG EMD-SO (Q2 2023) System Operations 1. Winter review & Summer outlook – Elia highlighted the risks for incompressibility in the summer period – Stressed the importance of demand response in such situations 2. Emergency & restauration – Overview on status and planning of the System Defen
Slide 77: Agenda
Agenda 1. Studie Energyville/Febeliec 2. UG 2.0 – voorstel hervorming 3. Feedback werkgroepen 1. WG Adequacy 2. WG Balancing (incl. TF Princess Elisabeth zone) 3. WG Belgian Grid 4. WG Consumer Centric Marktet Design 5. WG System Operations & European Market 4. Diversen 1. Plenaire meeting 13/09/202
Slide 78: Users' Group 2.0: proposal not approved as such
Users’ Group 2.0: het voorstel wordt als dusdanig niet goedgekeurd Na discussie stelt de Users’ Group volgende voor o Nood om materiaal WG’en vroeger te versturen + meer ruimte voor discussie o Nood tot verbeteren van reporting vanuit de WG naar de Users’ Group o Oprichting van een “reflectiekam