National Fuel Gas Company · NYSE:NFG

National Fuel Gas — Q2 2020 Earnings Presentation

66 slides from National Fuel Gas's earnings presentation, May 1, 2020

  1. Slide 1: Investor Presentation Q2 Fiscal 2020 Update

    Investor Presentation Q2 Fiscal 2020 Update April 30, 2020

  2. Slide 2: Commitment to safe and environmentally conscious operations

    National Fuel is committed to the safe and environmentally conscious development, transportation, storage, and distribution of natural gas and oil resources. For additional information, please visit our corporate responsibility website at https://responsibility.natfuel.com 2

  3. Slide 3: Message from CEO on COVID-19 response

    A message from David Bauer, President and CEO of National Fuel Gas Company, on NFG’s COVID-19 response “As we confront the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, I am proud to say that National Fuel has continued to safely and reliably provide natural gas service to our over 743,000 utility customers

  4. Slide 4: NFG: A Diversified, Integrated Natural Gas Company

    NFG: A Diversified, Integrated Natural Gas Company Upstream Developing our large, high quality Exploration & acreage position in Marcellus & Utica Production shales(1) 44% of NFG ~785,000 ~610 MMcf/day Net acres in Net Appalachian natural EBITDA(1) Appalachia gas production Midstream Expanding and m

  5. Slide 5: Why National Fuel?

    Why National Fuel? Diversified Assets Provide Stability and Long-Term Growth Opportunities 5

  6. Slide 6: Integrated Model Enhances Shareholder Value

    1 Integrated Model Enhances Shareholder Value . . . Benefits of National Fuel’s Geographic and Operational Integrated Structure: Upstream Integration Drives Synergies: Exploration &  Ability to adjust to changing Production Upstream Midstream commodity price environments  Co-Development of Marcell

  7. Slide 7: Drives Organic Growth Opportunities

    . . . and Drives Organic Growth Opportunities Near Term Strategy Leverages Integration Across the Value Chain Exploration & Pipeline & Gathering Utility Production Storage  Integrated Upstream and Midstream development of 785,000 acre Marcellus and Utica shale position  Drilling program focused on

  8. Slide 8: Impressive Dividend History

    2 Impressive Dividend History 49 Years 117 Years $1.74 per share 4.0% yield(1) Consecutive Dividend Increases Consecutive Payments $3.1 Billion Dividend payments since 1970 $0.19 per share Annual Rate at Fiscal Year End (1) As of April 29, 2020. 8

  9. Slide 9: Responsible Capital Allocation and Asset Development

    3 Responsible Capital Allocation and Asset Development E&P Maintaining Focus on Balance Sheet, With . . . While Generating Steady Production, and Significant Reductions in E&P Activity Level Optimizing Significant Firm Sales Portfolio and Capital Expenditures . . . and Firm Transportation Capacity 1

  10. Slide 10: Leveraging Existing Infrastructure to Enhance Returns

    L4 Leveraging Existing Infrastructure to Enhance Returns Utilization of Existing Infrastructure for Ongoing Utica Development Amplifies Consolidated Returns Utica development on Requires modest investment in Resulting in significant Marcellus pads allows new Gathering facilities to consolidated retu

  11. Slide 11: Significant Interstate Pipeline Backlog

    5 Significant Interstate Pipeline Backlog  Significant Expected Near-Term Northern Access Empire North Expansion Revenues: Delivery: Canada & NY Delivery: Canada & NY 490,000 Dth/d 205,000 Dth/d  Line N to Monaca: $5 MM (placed into service 11/1/19)  Empire North: $25 MM FM100  FM100: $35 MM Del

  12. Slide 12: Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 Financial Highlights

    Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 Financial Highlights 12

  13. Slide 13: Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 Results and Drivers

    Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 Results and Drivers Adjusted Operating Results ($/share)(1) Q2 FY 2019 Q2 FY 2020 Major Drivers $1.07 Oil and Gas $0.97 Natural Gas Prices Pricing(2) $61.01 $58.23 $2.58 Utility $2.12 $0.41 Oil Prices Utility $0.36 Crude Oil ($/Bbl) Natural Gas ($/Mcfe) Pipeline & Net Oil

  14. Slide 14: Earnings Guidance – Reduction Driven by Commodity Prices

    Earnings Guidance – Reduction Driven by Commodity Prices FY2019 Adjusted Operating Results FY2020 Earnings Guidance Key Guidance Drivers $3.45/share(1) $2.75 to $2.95/share  Seneca Net Production: 230 to 240 Bcfe Production & Gathering Throughput  Gathering Revenues: $135-$140 million Non-regulate

  15. Slide 15: Exploration & Production and Gathering Overview

    Exploration & Production and Gathering Overview Seneca Resources Company, LLC ~ National Fuel Gas Midstream Company, LLC 15

  16. Slide 16: Proved Reserves

    E&P and Gathering Proved Reserves Total Proved Reserves (Bcfe) 3-Year Average F&D Cost ($/Mcfe) 3,500 $1.50 $1.32 Natural Gas (Bcf) Crude Oil (MMbbl) 3,099 $0.98 3,000 $1.00 $0.74 2,523 $0.56 2,500 $0.50 2,154 2,000 1,849 $0.00 2016 2017 2018 2019 2,950 1,500 2,357 Fiscal 2019 Proved Reserves Stats

  17. Slide 17: Growing Production within Disciplined Capital Program

    E&P and Gathering Growing Production within Disciplined Capital Program E&P Net Capital Expenditures ($ millions)(1) Near-Term Strategy $600 Appalachia $492  Further reduce activity to 1-rig $500 $400 California $356 $375-$395 development program in summer 2020 (moved from 3 to 2 rigs in January 20

  18. Slide 18: Significant Appalachian Acreage Position

    E&P and Gathering Significant Appalachian Acreage Position Western Development Area (WDA)  Average gross production(1): ~362 MMcf/d WDA - 715,000 Acres EDA - 70,000 Acres  Over 1,000 potential Marcellus & Utica locations  ~90 locations where gathering/pad infrastructure in place from prior drilli

  19. Slide 19: Western Development Area

    E&P and Gathering Western Development Area Marcellus Core Acreage WDA Highlights vs. Utica Appraisal Trend(1) Area of Re-Development  Large well inventory: 70-75 remaining Utica locations on existing Marcellus pads  Marcellus Shale: 600+ well locations remaining / 200,000 acres  Utica Shale: 500+

  20. Slide 20: WDA-CRV Results and Type Curves

    E&P and Gathering WDA-CRV Results and Type Curves WDA-CRV Development Update WDA-CRV Types Curves – Normalized to 9,000’  Tested / currently producing from 35 Utica wells 9.0 in WDA-CRV area WDA-CRV Utica Type Curve 8.0  Avg. CRV Utica Production: ~105 MMCf/d WDA-CRV Marcellus Type Curve  Avg. CR

  21. Slide 21: Limited New Infrastructure Needed to Support Production Growth

    E&P and Gathering Limited New Infrastructure Needed to Support Production Growth Leveraging Existing Gathering, Water and Pad Infrastructure Enhances Returns WDA Well Costs(1) WDA EURs WDA-CRV Consolidated Economics Total cost per well expected ~60% EUR increase to marginally increase expected per w

  22. Slide 22: Integrated Development – WDA Gathering System

    E&P and Gathering Integrated Development – WDA Gathering System Gathering System Build-Out Tailored to Accommodate Seneca’s WDA Development Clermont Gathering System Map Current System In-Service  Capacity: 470 MMcf per day  Interconnects with TGP 300 and NFG Supply  Total Investment to Date: $31

  23. Slide 23: WDA Firm Transportation and Sales Capacity

    E&P and Gathering WDA Firm Transportation and Sales Capacity WDA Exit Capacity Supports Production and Enhances Consolidated Returns WDA Gas Marketing Strategy WDA Contracted Firm Transport and Gross Sales Volumes (MDth/d) 600  Will continue to layer-in firm sales deals of short and longer 500 dura

  24. Slide 24: Eastern Development Area

    E&P and Gathering Eastern Development Area EDA Highlights EDA Acreage – 70,000 Acres 1 DCNR Tract 007 (Tioga Co., Pa) • Utica development resumed in third quarter fiscal 2018 • 35-40 remaining Utica locations 1 • Gathering infrastructure: NFG Midstream Wellsboro • Marcellus Shale expected to provide

  25. Slide 25: EDA Marcellus: Lycoming County Development

    E&P and Gathering EDA Marcellus: Lycoming County Development Marcellus Development in Lycoming County has Resumed in Connection with Atlantic Sunrise  Prolific Marcellus acreage with peer-leading well results  30-35 remaining Marcellus locations – breakeven (15% IRR) consolidated economics of ~$1.

  26. Slide 26: EDA Utica: Tioga County Development

    E&P and Gathering EDA Utica: Tioga County Development Development Focused on Tract 007 Production Area, with Production Underpinned by Firm Sales EDA – TGP 300 Firm Contracts UPDATE DCNR Tract 007 150 Gross Firm Volumes (MDth/d) 125 100 EDA - TGP 300 75 Firm Sales(1) 50 Northeast Supply Diversificat

  27. Slide 27: EDA Utica: Tioga County Development

    E&P and Gathering EDA Utica: Tioga County Development Tract 007 Utica Wells Brought Online in Q2 Fiscal 2019 Tracking Best Industry Results to Date Tract 007 Utica Development Update Tract 007 Utica Well Results vs. Industry 700,000  Production from first multi-well pad (4 wells) Pad K Wells (Avg.)

  28. Slide 28: Integrated Development – EDA Gathering Systems

    E&P and Gathering Integrated Development – EDA Gathering Systems Gathering Segment Supporting Seneca and Third-Party Production & Future Development Wellsboro Gathering System  Total Investment (to date): ~$22 million  Capacity: up to 200,000 Dth per day (Interconnect w/ TGP 300) 1  Production So

  29. Slide 29: Long-term Contracts Supporting Appalachian Production

    E&P and Gathering Long-term Contracts Supporting Appalachian Production Seneca continues to layer-in firm sales contracts to lock-in drilling economics and minimize spot exposure ahead of firm transportation in-service dates 1,000 Seneca Appalachia Natural Gas Marketing Gross Firm Contract Volumes (

  30. Slide 30: Near-term Firm Sales Provide Market & Price Certainty

    E&P and Gathering Near-term Firm Sales Provide Market & Price Certainty Net Contracted Firm Sales Volumes (Dth per day) Contracted Index Price Differentials ($ per Dth)(1) NYMEX Dawn (1) Other Fixed Price ~635,200 650,400 581,800 601,900 574,700 572,500 578,900 570,500 122,500 121,600 $2.22 151,300

  31. Slide 31: California Oil

    E&P and Gathering California Oil Stable Oil Production | Minimal Capital Investment | Steady Free Cash Flow 1 Avg. Daily Production Location Formation Production Method (net Boe/d)(1) East Coalinga/ 1 Temblor Primary 532 Other 2 North Lost Tulare & Primary/ 2 866 Hills Etchegoin Steam flood 3 South

  32. Slide 32: California Capital Expenditures vs. Production

    E&P and Gathering California Capital Expenditures vs. Production West Division Annual Capital Expenditures ($ MM)(1) West Division Average Net Daily Production (Boe) Sespe Sale Closed on 5/1/18 $38 (reduced production by ~900 Boe/d) 8,863 $30 8,033 7,257 ~7,300 $26 ~$25 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018

  33. Slide 33: Fiscal 2020 Production and Price Certainty

    E&P and Gathering Fiscal 2020 Production and Price Certainty 101 Bcf of Appalachian Production Protected by Firm Sales  76 Bcf locked-in realizing net ~$2.16/Mcf (1)  25 Bcf of additional basis protection 280 ~8 Bcfe 230-240 Bcfe 240 ~8 Bcf Production (Bcfe) ~25 Bcf (2) 73% of oil 200 Spot product

  34. Slide 34: Hedge Positions and Prices

    E&P and Gathering Hedge Positions and Prices Natural Gas - MMDth, $/MMBtu Crude Oil - MBbl, $/Bbl Fiscal 2020 Fiscal 2020 78.9 49.3 $2.69 852 690 $64.55 MMDth MBbl 29.6 $2.18 ~72% ~73% 162 $50.52 - - Hedged(1) Hedged(1) Fiscal 2021 Fiscal 2021 118.5 $2.61 696 $64.29 191.2 852 MMDth 46.8 $2.22 MBbl 1

  35. Slide 35: Seneca Operating Costs

    E&P and Gathering Seneca Operating Costs Appalachia LOE & Gathering California LOE Total Seneca Cash OpEx $/Mcfe $/Boe UPDATE $/Mcfe $20.81 ~$19.00 $1.40 $1.32 ~$1.26 $17.91 $0.14 $0.69 $0.67 ~$0.69 $0.14 $0.11 $0.09 $0.07 $0.08 $0.34 $0.30 (1) $0.28 (2) (2) $0.38 $0.32 $0.30 $0.60 $0.60 $0.61 (2) (

  36. Slide 36: Pipeline and Storage Overview

    Pipeline and Storage Overview National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation ~ Empire Pipeline, Inc. 36

  37. Slide 37: Pipeline & Storage Segment Overview

    Pipeline & Storage Pipeline & Storage Segment Overview National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation  Contracted Capacity(1): Empire Pipeline  Firm Transportation: 3,078 MDth per day  Firm Storage: 70,693 Mdth (fully subscribed)  Rate Base(2): ~$944 million  FERC Rate Proceeding Status: Supply Corp.  S

  38. Slide 38: Empire North Project

    Pipeline & Storage Empire North Project Fully Subscribed Project will Provide 205,000 Dth/day of Incremental Firm Transportation  Target in-service: fourth quarter fiscal 2020 (construction underway)  Est. capital cost: $145 million  Est. annual revenues: ~$25 million  Receipt point: Jackson (Ti

  39. Slide 39: FM100 Project - Consolidated Benefit for NFG

    Pipeline & Storage FM100 Project - Consolidated Benefit for NFG Project expected to provide long-term earnings 330,000 Dth/d of new transportation capacity from uplift to Seneca, Supply Corp. and Gathering WDA and EDA acreage positions to premium markets Supply Corp.  Lease to Transco of new capaci

  40. Slide 40: FM100 Project – Significant Investment by Supply Corp.

    Pipeline & Storage FM100 Project – Significant Investment by Supply Corp.  Estimated capital cost: $279 million  Expansion facilities: ~$159 million  Modernization facilities: ~$120 million  Facilities (all in Pennsylvania) include:  Approximately 30 miles of new pipeline  2 new compressor sta

  41. Slide 41: Continued Expansion of the NFG Supply System

    Pipeline & Storage Continued Expansion of the NFG Supply System Line N to Monaca Project  Project: Firm transportation service to a new ethane cracker facility being built by Shell Chemical Appalachia, LLC  In-service date: November 1, 2019  Capital cost: ~$24.5 million  Contracted capacity: 133

  42. Slide 42: Northern Access Project

    Pipeline & Storage Northern Access Project Delivery points:  350,000 Dth/d to Chippawa (TCPL interconnect)  140,000 Dth/d to East Aurora (TGP 200 line) Regulatory/legal status: To Dawn  Feb. 2017 – FERC 7(c) certificate issued  Aug. 2018 – FERC issued Order finding that NY DEC waived water quali

  43. Slide 43: Pipeline & Storage Customer Mix

    Pipeline & Storage Pipeline & Storage Customer Mix Customer Transportation by Shipper Type(1) Affiliated Customer Mix (Contracted Capacity) 3.9 MMDth/d Affiliated Non-Affiliated Outside End User Pipeline 6% 7% 28% 56% Marketer 75% Producer 10% 35% 94% 72% LDC 44% 42% 25% 6% LDCs Producers Marketers

  44. Slide 44: Utility Overview

    Utility Overview National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation 44

  45. Slide 45: New York & Pennsylvania Service Territories

    Utility New York & Pennsylvania Service Territories New York Total Customers(1): 531,400 ROE: 8.7% (NY PSC Rate Case Order, April 2017) Rate Mechanisms: o Revenue Decoupling o Weather Normalization o Low Income Rates o Merchant Function Charge (Uncollectibles Adj.) o 90/10 Sharing (Large Customers)

  46. Slide 46: New York Rate Case Outcome

    Utility New York Rate Case Outcome On April 20, 2017, the New York Public Service Commission issued a Rate Order relating to NFG Distribution’s rate case (No. 16-G-0257) filed in April 2016. Rate Order Summary:  Revenue Requirement: $5.9 million  Rate Base: $704 million  Allowed Return on Equity

  47. Slide 47: Utility Continues its Significant Investments in Safety

    Utility Utility Continues its Significant Investments in Safety System modernization tracker in NY allows recovery of pipeline replacement costs, which is expected to drive modest gross margin and rate base growth $125.0 Capital Expenditures for Safety (1) Total Capital Expenditures Capital Expendit

  48. Slide 48: Accelerating Pipeline Replacement & Modernization

    Utility Accelerating Pipeline Replacement & Modernization Utility Mains by Material(1) Miles of Utility Main Pipeline Replaced Wrought 159 158 Iron 146 144 Coated Bare Cast Iron 130 NY 9,738 miles Plastic Wrought Bare Iron Coated PA* 4,843 miles Plastic 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Calendar Year * No Ca

  49. Slide 49: A Proven History of Controlling Costs

    Utility A Proven History of Controlling Costs (1) Utility O&M Expense and Non-Service Pension Costs ($ millions) $250 O&M Expense (GAAP) Non-Service Pension Costs $200 $195 $197 $196 $199 $200 $189 $31 $28 $27 $172 $150 $166 $169 $100 $50 $0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 TTM 3/31/20 Fiscal Year (1) As of

  50. Slide 50: Consolidated Financial Overview

    Consolidated Financial Overview Upstream I Midstream I Downstream 50

  51. Slide 51: Diversified, Balanced Earnings and Cash Flows

    Diversified, Balanced Earnings and Cash Flows Adjusted Operating Results ($ per share)(1) Adjusted EBITDA ($ millions)(2) $4.00 Expected Decrease $794 $785 $3.45 Driven by Reduced $800 Commodity Prices $3.00 $2.75 to $2.95 $1.26 $351 $350 Exploration & $600 Production $2.00 Gathering $0.67 $400 $108

  52. Slide 52: Disciplined, Flexible Capital Allocation

    Disciplined, Flexible Capital Allocation Capital Expenditures by Segment ($ millions)(1) $1,000 Exploration & Production (2) Gathering Pipeline & Storage Utility $781 $750 $680-$740 $583 $492 $375-$395 $500 $455 $366 $356 $99 $246 $50-$60 $250 $50 $54 $33 $48 $114 $143 $175-$195 $95 $93 $98 $81 $86

  53. Slide 53: Maintaining Strong Balance Sheet & Liquidity

    Maintaining Strong Balance Sheet & Liquidity Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA(1) Capitalization 2.61 x 2.72 x 2.51 x 2.45 x 2.47 x Total Debt Total Equity 53% 47% 2016 2017 2018 2019 TTM 3/31/20 $4.4 Billion Total Capitalization Fiscal Year End as of March 31, 2020 Debt Maturity Profile ($MM) Liquidity $6

  54. Slide 54: Appendix

    Appendix 54

  55. Slide 55: Safe Harbor For Forward Looking Statements

    Appendix Safe Harbor For Forward Looking Statements This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding future prospects, plans, objectives, goals, projections, estimates of oil and gas quantiti

  56. Slide 56: Consolidated Seneca and Gathering Economics

    Appendix Consolidated Seneca and Gathering Economics Average Realized Pricing (2) Locations Average 15% IRR (3) Completed EUR Prospect Reservoir Remaining CAPEX $2.50 $2.25 $2.00 Realized Lateral (Bcf/1000') to Be Drilled ($M/1000') IRR (%) (3) IRR (%) (3) IRR (%) (3) Price Length (ft) Tract 100 & G

  57. Slide 57: Hedge Positions and Prices

    Appendix Hedge Positions and Prices Natural Gas Volumes in thousand MMBtu; Prices in $/MMBtu Fiscal 2020 (Remain.) Fiscal 2021 Fiscal 2022 Avg. Avg. Avg. Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price NYMEX Swaps 45,700 $2.67 117,920 $2.61 62,550 $2.52 Dawn Swaps 3,600 $3.00 600 $3.00 - - 2-Way Collars - -

  58. Slide 58: EDA Type Curves

    Appendix EDA Type Curves Lycoming 007 Utica 16 14 Cumulative Production (BCF) 12 10 8 Estimated Cumulative Volumes (Bcf) 6 Lycoming Tract 007 Year Marcellus Utica (5,800') (8,700') 4 1 3.2 5.3 5 8.6 12.6 2 10 11.1 15.5 EUR (Bcf) 14.5-16.8 17.4-20.0 NRI 84% 82% 0 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 Mon

  59. Slide 59: WDA-CRV Type Curves

    Appendix WDA-CRV Type Curves CRV Utica Return Trip CRV Marcellus Return Trip 9 8 7 Cumulative Production (BCF) 6 5 4 Estimated Cumulative Volumes (Bcf) WDA-CRV WDA-CRV 3 Year Utica Marcellus (9,500') (9,000') 2 1 2.2 1.6 5 6.2 4.4 10 8.8 6.3 1 EUR (Bcf) 15.2-16.2 9.0-10.8 NRI 100% 100% 0 0 12 24 36

  60. Slide 60: Firm Transportation Commitments

    Appendix Firm Transportation Commitments Volume Delivery Demand Charges Production Source Gas Marketing Strategy (Dth/d) Market ($/Dth) Firm Sales Contracts Northeast Supply EDA -Tioga County Canada $0.50 50,000 Dth/d Diversification Covington & 50,000 (Dawn) (3rd party) Dawn/NYMEX+ Currently In-Ser

  61. Slide 61: Comparable GAAP Financial Measure Slides & Reconciliations

    Appendix Comparable GAAP Financial Measure Slides & Reconciliations This presentation contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. For pages that contain non-GAAP financial measures, pages containing the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are provided in the slides

  62. Slide 62: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted EBITDA

    Appendix Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Consolidated Net Income ($ Thousands) (1) 12-Months (1) FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Ended 3/31/20 Total Adjusted EBITDA Exploration & Production Adjusted EBITDA $ 363,438 $ 361,079 $ 317,707 $ 351,159 349,63

  63. Slide 63: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted EBITDA, by Segment

    Appendix Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted EBITDA, by Segment Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Net Income, by Segment ($ Thousands) FY20 FY19 12-Months FY 2019 FYTD FYTD Ended 3/31/20 Exploration and Production Segment Reported GAAP Earnings $ 111,807 $ (151,299) $ 60,087 $ (99,579) Depreciati

  64. Slide 64: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted Operating Results

    Appendix Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted Operating Results Three Months Ended Six Months Ended Fiscal Year Ended March 31, March 31, September 30, (in thousands except per share amounts) 2020 2019 2020 2019 (in thousands except per share amounts) 2019 2018 Reported GAAP Earnings $ (106,068) $ 90

  65. Slide 65: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Capital Expenditures

    Appendix Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Capital Expenditures Reconciliation of Segment Capital Expenditures to Consolidated Capital Expenditures ($ Thousands) FY 2020 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Forecast Capital Expenditures Exploration & Production Capital Expenditures $ 256,104 $ 253,057 $ 380,677

  66. Slide 66: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – E&P Operating Expenses

    Appendix Non-GAAP Reconciliations – E&P Operating Expenses Twelve Months Ended Twelve Months Ended September 30, 2019 September 30, 2018 (2) Appalachia West Coast Total E&P Appalachia West Coast(2) Total E&P Appalachia West Coast(2) Total E&P Appalachia West Coast(2) Total E&P $/ Mcfe $ / Boe $ / Mc

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