Nutrien Ltd. · TSX:NTR
Nutrien — Q3 2026 Earnings Presentation
24 slides from Nutrien's earnings presentation, Nov 4, 2026
Slide 1: Q3 2026 Results Presentation
Q3 2026 Results Presentation November 4, 2026
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements
Forward looking statements Forward Looking Statements Certain statements and other information included in this presentation, including under the sections "Financial Guidance" and "Market Outlook", constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looki
Slide 3: Forward Looking Statements (continued)
Forward looking statements Forward Looking Statements (continued) Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control and are difficult to predict, which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from results or events e
Slide 4: Nutrien results – YTD 2026
Nutrien results – YTD 2026 Continued operational excellence supports higher cash generated from operations Increased cash returns to shareholders Adjusted EBITDA1 Net earnings ($ millions) ($ millions) +2% -4% $4,845 $1,717 $4,769 $1,649 Q3'25 YTD Q3'26 YTD Q3'25 YTD Q3'26 YTD Cash provided by opera
Slide 5: Completed strategic review of our Phosphate business
Completed strategic review of our Phosphate business Determined the optimal path in the current environment is to retain and further optimize our Aurora and integrated upgrade 1 facilities, while shutting down operations at our White Springs facility in the second quarter of 2027. 2 Continue to buil
Slide 6: Retail results – Q3 2026
Retail results – Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Variance Highlights ($ millions) Lower Crop Nutrients $230 • Sales were flat and gross margin $203 decreased due to lower international sales volumes and reduced gross margin per tonne, reflecting sell through of higher cost inventory. Higher Crop Protection
Slide 7: Retail results – YTD 2026
Retail results – YTD 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Variance Highlights ($ millions) Lower Crop Nutrients • Due to lower sales volumes, partially $1,425 $1,442 offset by higher gross margin per tonne. Higher Crop Protection Products • Increased due to higher proprietary product sales and gross margins. Higher
Slide 8: Potash results – Q3 2026
Potash results – Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Variance Highlights ($ millions) Lower Net Selling Price $733 $730 • Lower summer fill program pricing in North America compared to the same period of 2025. Higher Sales Volumes • Healthy demand and favorable potash affordability in key markets. Q3'25 Average
Slide 9: Potash results – YTD 2026
Potash results – YTD 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Variance Highlights ($ millions) Higher Net Selling Price $1,966 • Higher global benchmark prices, partially offset by higher cost to serve, mainly $1,809 driven by increased fuel costs. Higher Sales Volumes • Healthy demand and favorable potash affordabilit
Slide 10: Nitrogen results – Q3 2026
Nitrogen results – Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Variance Highlights ($ millions) Higher Net Selling Price $556 • Higher ammonia net selling price due to $497 stronger benchmark prices, partially offset by lower global benchmark prices for most upgraded products compared to the same period of 2025. Lower
Slide 11: Nitrogen results – YTD 2026
Nitrogen results – YTD 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Variance Highlights ($ millions) Higher Net Selling Price • Stronger global benchmark prices. $1,626 $1,614 Lower Sales Volumes • Reflecting no production from the Trinidad and New Madrid facilities2 and higher turnaround activity. Lower COGS/mt Q3'25 YTD
Slide 12: Financial guidance
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Slide 13: Financial and operational guidance
Financial and operational guidance “Nutrien delivered structural earnings growth and increased cash returns to shareholders in the first nine months of 2026, supported by record potash sales volumes, strong proprietary products gross margins and a continued focus on operational excellence.” Ken Seit
Slide 14: Retail adjusted EBITDA, market outlook and assumptions
Retail adjusted EBITDA, market outlook and assumptions Retail Adjusted EBITDA Market Outlook and Assumptions ($ billions) • Global agricultural fundamentals continue to be supported by robust grain and oilseed demand. Regional variability in weather conditions, including ongoing El Niño impacts, and
Slide 15: Potash sensitivity, market outlook and assumptions
Potash sensitivity, market outlook and assumptions 2026 Potash Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1 ($ billions) Market Outlook and Assumptions 4.0 Sensitivity Range • Global potash market fundamentals remain constructive, supported by 3.5 favorable affordability and healthy demand in major importing region
Slide 16: Nitrogen sensitivity, market outlook and assumptions
Nitrogen sensitivity, market outlook and assumptions 2026 Nitrogen Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivity1 ($ billions) Market Outlook and Assumptions 3.5 • Global nitrogen market fundamentals are expected to remain tight Sensitivity Range heading into 2027, driven by ongoing trade flow disruptions, production
Slide 17: Capital expenditures reflect a focus on capital efficiency and free cash flow
Capital expenditures reflect a focus on capital efficiency and free cash flow Capital Expenditures Investing Capital Priorities ($ billions) Retail: high value proprietary products, network optimization and digital capabilities. $2.6B Potash: mine automation projects that enhance productivity and sa
Slide 18: Market outlook
Market outlook 18
Slide 19: Risks to global crop production and trade may place additional upside pressure on crop prices
Risks to global crop production and trade may place additional upside pressure on crop prices Global stocks to use ratio (stocks to use ratio %, excl. China) Grain Vegetable oil 20% 20% Yield and trade Yield and trade reduction risk reduction risk 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Slide 20: Tightening fundamentals expected to support grower economics in 2027
Tightening fundamentals expected to support grower economics in 2027 Key Crop Grower Cash Margins1,2,3,4 US Corn Cash Selling Price & Costs1,4,5,6 (USD/acre, CAD/acre, BRL/hectare) (US$/bushel) US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat US Cotton CAN Canola BRZ Soybeans 500 3,600 7.00 6.00 400 3,000 5.00 2,400 30
Slide 21: Maintain 2026 shipment forecast (74-77Mmt), expect growth in 2027 to 75-79Mmt
Maintain 2026 shipment forecast (74-77Mmt), expect growth in 2027 to 75-79Mmt Historical & Projected Potash Demand by Region (million tonnes KCl) India Other Asia North America Latin America China Other 20 19.5-20.5 21.0-22.0 20.0-21.0 17.0-18.0 17.5-18.5 17.0-17.5 15 13.0-13.5 12.5 -13.0 10 10.5-11
Slide 22: Increased production from Canada and Eastern Europe required to meet demand
Increased production from Canada and Eastern Europe required to meet demand Potash Production in Selected Regions - Midpoint Forecast (million tonnes KCl) Canada Russia Belarus Europe Middle East China Other1 30 25 2024 2025E 2026F 20 15 10 5 0 2024 2025 2026F 22 1. Includes production from Latin Am
Slide 23: Chinese fertilizer exports offer limited relief amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty
Chinese fertilizer exports offer limited relief amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty China Urea Exports China DAP/MAP Exports (millions of tonnes product) (millions of tonnes product) Y/Y Chinese export increase partially offsets reduced 8 10 Middle East exports 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 - - 2022 2023 2024 202
Slide 24: Thank you!
Thank you! For more information, please visit: www.nutrien.com 24