Slide 1: Earnings Conference Call – 2nd Quarter Fiscal 2012
The Mosaic Company Jim Prokopanko, President and Chief Executive Officer Laura Gagnon, Vice President Investor Relations Earnings Conference Call – 2 nd Quarter Fiscal 2012 Thursday, January 5, 2012
Slide 2: Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectati
Slide 3: Another Quarter of Strong Results
Another Quarter of Strong Results Revenue $3.0 billion +13% Net Earnings $624 million +37% EPS $1.40 +37% (1) Excluding net gain of $570.1 million, or $1.27 per share, from sale of Fosfertil in Q2 FY11. (1) (1)
Slide 4: Potash Segment Highlights
In millions, except MOP price Q2 FY12 Q1 FY12 Q2 FY11 Potash Segment Highlights Net sales $839 $873 $699 Gross Margin $394 $444 $285 % of net sales 47% 51% 41% Operating earnings $358 $402 $252 Sales volumes 1.8 1.8 1.8 Production volume 1.8 1.9 1.7 Avg MOP selling price $440 $446 $331 Second quarte
Slide 5: Potash Expansion on Track
Potash Expansion on Track Over 60% capacity increase expected by 2019 FISCAL YEAR CUMULATIVE PEAKING CAPACITY ADDITIONS MILLION TONNES EXISTING TOLLING IN PROGRESS FUTURE
Slide 6: Phosphates Segment Highlights
In millions, except DAP price Q2 FY12 Q1 FY12 Q2 FY11 Phosphates Segment Highlights Net sales $2,179 $2,220 $1,974 Gross Margin $476 $410 $476 % of net sales 22% 18% 24% Operating earnings $432 $333 $402 Sales volumes 3.2 3.2 3.7 NA production volume (a) 2.1 2.2 2.1 Avg DAP selling price $611 $576 $
Slide 7: Phosphate Raw Material Costs
Phosphate Raw Material Costs Ammonia $/tonne Sulfur Costs $/long ton Realized costs of raw materials in COGS lag spot prices by approximately 3 months. Realized ammonia costs, in most periods shown, include a benefit of our manufacture of ammonia at Faustina. In addition, sulfur realized prices incl
Slide 8: Phosphate Rock Sourcing
Phosphate Rock Sourcing Rock Mix used in U.S. Operations $- $25 $50 $75 $100 - 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Q2 FY11 Q3 FY11 Q4 FY11 Q1 FY12 Q2 FY12 US mined rock Purchased Miski Mayo rock Other purchased rock
Slide 9: Affordability has improved due to higher grain prices and lower crop nutrient costs
Affordability has improved due to higher grain prices and lower crop nutrient costs 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 Crop Nutrient Price Index/Crop Price Index Ratio Ratio Average
Slide 10: Markets are signaling to farmers to keep the foot on the gas
Markets are signaling to farmers to keep the foot on the gas and not the brake 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 O N D J F M A M J J US$ BU New Crop Corn Prices Daily Close of the New Crop Option October 1 to June 30 Source: CBOT
Slide 11: Near term market forecast
Near term market forecast The issue is timing, not tonnes Jun-Nov Dec-May NORTH AMERICAN MOP SHIPMENTS MILLION TONS Jun-Nov Dec-May NORTH AMERICAN PHOSPHATE SHIPMENTS MILLION TONS 5 yr range 2011/12F 5 yr average
Slide 12: Financial Guidance – Fiscal 2012
Category Guidance Potash Q3 Sales volume 1.2 – 1.5 million tonnes Q3 MOP selling price $430 – $460 per tonne Q3 Operating rate above 80% Phosphates Q3 Sales volume 2.2 – 2.6 million tonnes Q3 DAP selling price $530 - $560 per tonne Q3 Operating rate range of 70% - 80% Capital Expenditures $1.6 - $1.
Slide 13: Record Phosphate Shipments
Record Phosphate Shipments In both 2011 and 2012 Phosphate shipments are expected to climb to record levels driven by high agricultural commodity prices and profitable farm economics Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic estimates 62-64 11F 12F CALENDAR YEAR WORLD PHOSPHATE SHIPMENTS MILLION TONNES DAP/M
Slide 14: Record Potash Demand
Record Potash Demand In both 2011 and 2012 Source: Fertecon, IFA and Mosaic estimates Muriate of Potash shipments also are expected to climb to record levels driven by high agricultural commodity prices and profitable farm economics 57-59 11F 12F CALENDAR YEAR WORLD POTASH SHIPMENTS MILLION TONNES K
Slide 15: Thank you
The Mosaic Company Thank you
Slide 16: Earnings Sensitivity to Key Drivers
Change Estimated Change in Pre-Tax Earnings ($ in millions) Estimated Change in Annual EPS Earnings Sensitivity to Key Drivers (a) MOP Price ($/tonne) $50 $354 $0.59 Potash Volume (000 tonnes) $160 $0.27 DAP Price ($/tonne) $50 $416 $0.69 Phosphates Volume (000 tonnes) $111 $0.18 Sulfur ($/lt) $25 $
Slide 17: Adjusted Net Earnings Attributable to Mosaic
Three Months Ended November 30, , 2011 – 2010 . (in millions, except per share amounts) 2011 2010 Change Percent Net earnings attributable to Mosaic $623.6 $1,025.6 $(402.0) (39%) After-tax gain from sale of Fosfertil - $(570.1) $570.1 - Adjusted net earnings attributable to Mosaic $623.6 $455.5 $16