Xcel Energy Inc. · NASDAQ:XEL
Xcel Energy — Q1 2021 Earnings Presentation
31 slides from Xcel Energy's earnings presentation, Apr 29, 2021
Slide 1: First Quarter 2021 Earnings Report Presentation
FIRST QUARTER 2021 EARNINGS REPORT PRESENTATION APRIL 29, 2021
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor Except for the historical statements contained in this presentation, the matters discussed herein are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Such forward-looking statements, including the 2021 EPS guidance, long-term EPS and dividend
Slide 3: 2021 Q1 Financial & Operational Highlights
2021 Q1 Financial & Operational Highlights • Reaffirmed 2021 earnings guidance of $2.90 to $3.00 per share • Proposed $210 million buy out of 120 MW repowered wind PPA in Minnesota • Proposed $575 million 460 MW solar facility in Minnesota • Proposed $1.7 billion Pathway transmission expansion plan
Slide 4: Storm Uri Impacts
Storm Uri Impacts Maintained Reliability, Managing Customer Bill Impacts Estimated Storm Impact Total Average Average Monthly Company ($ Millions) Resi Bill Impact Resi Bill Impact Electric Natural Gas Total NSPM ($20) $250 $230 $250 - $300 $10 - $13 PSCo $305 $305 $610 $210 - $220 $8 - $9 SPS $80 N
Slide 5: Proposed Incremental Projects
Proposed Incremental Projects ~$785 Million in Additional Wind and Solar Allete Wind Repowering (~$210 million) Solar (~$575 million) • ~120 MW • ~460 MW universal scale • MPUC filing 2021 Q1 • MPUC filing April 2021 • Decision requested 2021 Q3 • Decision requested 2021 2H ($ Millions) 2021 2022 20
Slide 6: Proposed Colorado Resource Plan
Proposed Colorado Resource Plan 85% Carbon Reduction by 2030 & Coal Exit by 2040 Full coal exit by 2040 Significant renewable additions • Hayden 1 & 2 (233 MW) retire 2028/2027 • Wind (~2,300 MW) • Pawnee (505 MW) conversion to natural • Universal scale solar (~1,600 MW) gas in 2028 • Distributed so
Slide 7: Proposed Minnesota Resource Plan
Proposed Minnesota Resource Plan 80% Carbon Reduction & Coal Exit by 2030 Full coal exit by 2030 Significant renewable additions • King (511 MW) retire 2028 • Universal scale solar (3,500 MW) • Sherco 3 (517 MW) retire 2030 • Wind (2,250 MW) Firm peaking capacity (2,600 MW) Nuclear extension (Montic
Slide 8: Colorado Pathway Transmission Expansion
Colorado Pathway Transmission Expansion Transmission Backbone • Enables ~5,500 MW of renewable generation • ~560 miles of 345 kV lines; three new, four expanded substations • Potential ~$1.7 billion investment • CPCN filing March 2021; decision anticipated 2021 Q4 Estimated Investment ($ millions) 2
Slide 9: MISO Transmission Outlook
MISO Transmission Outlook MISO recently released a long-range Indicative Transmission Development in MISO potential transmission planning roadmap: • Analyzes three potential futures with up to 50% renewables by 2039 • Recognizes urgency for significant expansion over next ~15 years • Highlighted ini
Slide 10: 2021 Q1 ESG Highlights
2021 Q1 ESG Highlights Environmental Social Governance • Proposed Colorado coal • Committed $350,000 to • Introduced D&I metric exit by 2040 advance racial equity, tied to incentive pay support COVID-19 relief • Launched Carbon-Free • Named by Ethisphere as and rebuild communities Technology Initiat
Slide 11: EPS Results by Operating Company
EPS Results by Operating Company First Quarter Operating Company 2021 2020 PSCo $ 0.31 $ 0.24 NSPM 0.24 0.20 SPS 0.11 0.08 NSPW 0.06 0.06 Equity earnings 0.01 0.01 Regulated utility 0.73 0.60 Holding company and other (0.06) (0.04) Total GAAP and ongoing diluted EPS $ 0.67 $ 0.56 Amounts may not sum
Slide 12: Quarterly GAAP and Ongoing EPS Change
Quarterly GAAP and Ongoing EPS Change $0.06 $0.02 ($0.08) $0.07 ($0.03) ($0.02) ($0.01) $0.11 ($0.01) $0.67 $0.56 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 EPS EPS * Combined electric and natural gas margins include ~$0.02 of positive weather impacts (post decoupling) ** Includes PTCs and plant regulatory amounts, which are
Slide 13: Sales and Customer Data
Sales and Customer Data 2021 Q1 W/A Retail Electric Sales Growth 2021 Q1 YoY Electric Customer Growth (leap year adjusted) 0.7% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% -0.6% -1.9% -2.0% -4.3% NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Xcel Energy NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Xcel Energy 2021 Q1 W/A Natural Gas Sales Growth 2021 Q1 YoY Natural Gas
Slide 14: SPS New Mexico Electric Rate Case
SPS New Mexico Electric Rate Case Case No. 20-00238-UT • In January 2021, SPS filed a required electric case: – Requesting rate increase of ~$88 million, or net increase of $48 million (reflecting fuel savings and PTCs from Sagamore wind farm) – ROE of 10.35% and equity ratio of 54.72% – Retail rate
Slide 15: SPS Texas Electric Rate Case
SPS Texas Electric Rate Case Docket No. 51802 • In February 2021, SPS filed a required electric case: – Requesting base rate increase of ~$143 million, or net increase of $74 million (reflecting fuel savings and PTCs from Sagamore wind farm) – ROE of 10.35% and equity ratio of 54.60% – Retail rate b
Slide 16: NSPM North Dakota Electric Rate Case
NSPM North Dakota Electric Rate Case Case No. PU-20-441 • In November 2020, NSPM filed an electric rate case: – Requesting rate increase of $19 million – ROE of 10.2% and equity ratio of 52.5% – Rate base of ~$677 million – 2021 forecast test year • Interim rates of $13 million (subject to refund) i
Slide 17: Proven Strength in Wind Development
Proven Strength in Wind Development ~4,000 MW of Owned Wind Now in Service In Serviced Pre-2020 Capacity In Serviced In 2020 Capacity Border 150 MW Blazing Star 1 200 MW Courtenay 200 MW Cheyenne Ridge 500 MW Grand Meadow 100 MW Crowned Ridge 200 MW Nobles 200 MW Sagamore 522 MW Pleasant Valley 200
Slide 18: 2021 GAAP & Ongoing EPS Guidance: $2.90 – $3.00
2021 GAAP & Ongoing EPS Guidance: $2.90 – $3.00 Earnings Drivers Key Assumptions (as compared to 2020 levels unless noted) Regulatory proceedings Constructive outcomes in all proceedings COVID-19 Modest impacts Weather Normal weather for remainder of year W/A retail electric sales Increase of approx
Slide 19: Appendix
APPENDIX 18
Slide 20: ROE Results – GAAP and Ongoing Earnings
ROE Results – GAAP and Ongoing Earnings GAAP and Ongoing ROE 2020E Rate Base Twelve Months Ended 3/31/2021 SPS 11.00% 16% 9.16% 9.99% 9.55% 8.34% 8.94% NSPM ~$33 38% PSCo Billion 41% NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Total Xcel NSPW OpCo Energy 5% 19
Slide 21: 2021 Debt Financing Base Plan
2021 Debt Financing Base Plan $ Millions Issuer Security Amount Status Tenor Coupon Hold Co Unsecured Term Loan $1,200 Completed 1 Yr N/A PSCo First Mortgage Bonds $750 Completed 10 Yr 1.875% SPS Green First Mortgage Bonds $250 Completed 29 Yr 3.15% 10 Yr ($425) 2.25% NSPM Green First Mortgage Bonds
Slide 22: Base Financing Plan 2021 – 2025
Base Financing Plan 2021 – 2025* $ Millions $600 $410 $7,490 $3,820 $3,820 $23,500 $15,000 CFO** Maturing Refinanced Incremental Equity Equity Base Plan LT Debt LT Debt Debt (Other) (DRIP) * Financing plans are subject to change ** Cash from operations is net of dividends and pension funding 21
Slide 23: Strong Credit Metrics
Strong Credit Metrics Plan 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 FFO/Debt ~17% ~17% ~17% ~17% ~17% Debt/EBITDA 4.9x 4.9x 4.8x 4.8x 4.9x Equity Ratio 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% Hold Co Debt/Total Debt 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% Credit Ratings Moody’s S&P Fitch Xcel Energy Unsecured Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ NSPM Secured Aa3 A A+ NSPW Sec
Slide 24: Base Capital Expenditures by Function
Base Capital Expenditures by Function $ Millions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total Electric Distribution $1,205 $1,440 $1,550 $1,505 $1,475 $7,175 Electric Transmission $870 $1,285 $1,285 $1,270 $1,290 $6,000 Electric Generation $630 $575 $560 $750 $975 $3,490 Natural Gas $615 $615 $665 $670 $625 $3,19
Slide 25: Base Capital Expenditures by Company
Base Capital Expenditures by Company $ Millions 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total NSPM $1,930 $1,785 $1,785 $1,915 $1,890 $9,305 NSPW $360 $430 $395 $515 $470 $2,170 PSCo $1,700 $1,835 $1,750 $1,695 $1,655 $8,635 SPS $505 $710 $770 $735 $675 $3,395 Other* ($20) ($15) $10 $10 $10 ($5) Total $4,475 $4,74
Slide 26: Robust Capital Forecast 2021 - 2025
Robust Capital Forecast 2021 - 2025 Base Forecast Incremental Forecast Other Electric Other Electric 10% Distribution SPS 10% Distribution NSPM 30% 15% 30% 37% Natural Natural Proposed Gas LDC Gas LDC $23.5 $22.5 $24.3 NSPM solar 13% 14% Billion and wind BOT Billion Billion Electric Electric Electri
Slide 27: Strong Rate Base Growth
Strong Rate Base Growth $ Billions Incremental forecast: 2020 - 2025 CAGR: ~6.9% Base forecast: 2020 - 2025 CAGR: ~6.6% $45.9 $43.7 $41.2 $38.4 $45.3 $43.0 $40.5 $38.0 $35.4 $32.9 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Incremental forecast includes proposed NSPM Sherco solar and Allete wind PPA repower
Slide 28: 2021 Q1 W/A Electric Sales Growth
2021 Q1 W/A Electric Sales Growth NSPM NSPW PSCo SPS Residential C&I Total Retail 5.7% 6.1% 4.0% 5.0% 0.7% -0.8% -0.6% -2.0% -4.1% -4.3% -5.6% -6.3% Leap year adjusted Extreme weather variations, wind chill and cloud cover may not be reflected in growth (decline) estimates 27
Slide 29: Xcel Energy W/A Sales Growth
Xcel Energy W/A Sales Growth Residential C&I Total Retail Electric Natural Gas Electric Natural Gas 5.6% 3.1% 2.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% -0.5% -0.3% -1.9% -3.1% -5.4%-5.0% YTD YTD YTD YTD 2019 2020* 2021* 2019 2020* 2021* 2019 2020* 2021* 2019 2020* 2021* * Leap year adjusted Extreme weather variations, wi
Slide 30: 2021 Q2 Events
2021 Q2 Events Virtual Events Dates Citi Utility Conference May 12 AGA Financial Forum May 19 - 20 Annual Meeting of Shareholders May 19 RBC Utility Conference June 8 JP Morgan Utility Conference June 23 Capital International Yield Conference June 24 29
Slide 31: © 2021 Xcel Energy Inc.
(2) Xcel Energy’ © 2021 Xcel Energy Inc.