Johnson Matthey PLC · LSE:JMAT
Johnson Matthey — H1 2012 Earnings Presentation
46 slides from Johnson Matthey's earnings presentation, 2012
Slide 1: #PlatinumInt2012
#PlatinumInt2012 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 2: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER Johnson Matthey PLC endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the information and materials contained within this presentation, but makes no warranty as to accuracy, completeness or suitability for any particular purpose. Johnson Matthey PLC accepts no liability whatsoever in respect of relian
Slide 3: Platinum
Platinum www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 4: Platinum in 2012
Platinum in 2012 • A market in deficit by 400,000 oz • A very different shape to the market compared to 2011 • A substantial fall in primary and secondary supply • Disruption to mining in South Africa and the closure of marginal operations expected to result in a 10% fall in global supply • Lower re
Slide 5: Platinum supply
Platinum supply South African supplies to reach an 11-year low in 2012 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 6: Platinum supply
Platinum supply ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change South Africa 4,855 4,250 (12) Russia 835 790 (5) North America 350 340 (3) Zimbabwe 340 360 6 Others 100 100 0 Total 6,480 5,840 (10) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 7: Platinum supply: South Africa
Platinum supply: South Africa • Severe disruption to South African output in 2012 • Strikes, stoppages and closure of marginal operations will affect pgm sales from South Africa this year • Our full-year forecast includes production losses due to strikes and stoppages to the end of September, but do
Slide 8: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 6,480 5,840 (9.9) Autocatalyst 3,105 3,070 (1) Industrial 2,050 1,785 (12.9) Jewellery Light duty diesel2,480 2,725 oz demand -105,000 9.9 Investment 460 490 6.5 Light duty gasoline Gross Demand demand8,070 8,095 +30,000 oz (0.3) Recycling (2,045)
Slide 9: Gross platinum autocatalyst demand
Gross platinum autocatalyst demand In 2012, weakness in Europe has been largely offset by growth elsewhere www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 10: Gross platinum autocatalyst demand share
Gross platinum autocatalyst demand share www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 11: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 6,480 5,840 (9.9) Autocatalyst 3,105 3,070 (1) Industrial 2,050 1,785 (13) Jewellery 2,480 2,725 9.9 Investment 460 490 6.5 Gross Demand 8,095 8,070 (0.3) Recycling (2,045) (1,830) (10.5) Stock Movement 430 (400) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 12: Platinum industrial demand
Platinum industrial demand Lower purchasing in glass and electrical sectors in 2012 but strong growth in non-road emissions control (counted in Medical & Other) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 13: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 6,480 5,840 (9.9) Autocatalyst 3,105 3,070 (1) Industrial 2,050 1,785 (13) Jewellery 2,480 2,725 10 Investment 460 490 6.5 Gross Demand 8,095 8,070 (0.3) Recycling (2,045) (1,830) (10.5) Stock Movement 430 (400) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 14: Gross platinum jewellery demand
Gross platinum jewellery demand Opening of new retail stores in China in 2012 has spurred manufacturing of platinum jewellery www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 15: Estimated monthly purchasing of platinum by the Chinese jewellery industry
Estimated monthly purchasing of platinum by the Chinese jewellery industry Once again in 2012, the trade has bought into price dips www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 16: Platinum demand
Platinum demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 6,480 5,840 (9.9) Autocatalyst 3,105 3,070 (1) Industrial 2,050 1,785 (13) Jewellery 2,480 2,725 10 Investment 460 490 7 Gross Demand 8,095 8,070 (0.3) Recycling (2,045) (1,830) (10.5) Stock Movement 430 (400) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 17: Platinum investment demand
Platinum investment demand ETF investment has largely tracked the price in 2012 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 18: Platinum ETF holdings
Platinum ETF holdings www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 19: Platinum supply and demand
Platinum supply and demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supply 6,480 5,840 (10) Autocatalyst 3,105 3,070 (1) Industrial 2,050 1,785 (13) Jewellery 2,480 2,725 10 Investment 460 490 7 Gross demand 8,095 8,070 (0) Recycling (2,045) (1,830) (10.5) Stock Movement 430 (400) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 20: Platinum supply and demand
Platinum supply and demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supply 6,480 5,840 (10) Gross demand 8,095 8,070 (0) Recycling (2,045) (1,830) (11) Stock Movement (25) 430 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 21: Platinum recycling
Platinum recycling Autocatalyst and jewellery recycling have slowed in response to weaker prices in 2012 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 22: Platinum supply and demand
Platinum supply and demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supply 6,480 5,840 (10) Gross demand 8,095 8,070 (0) Recycling (2,045) (1,830) (11) Net demand 6,050 6,240 3 Stock movement 430 (400) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 23: Palladium
Palladium www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 24: Palladium in 2012
Palladium in 2012 • A swing of over 2 million ounces from surplus to deficit • Falling supply • Lower sales of Russian state stocks, of 250,000 oz • Supply from South Africa impacted by recent disruptions • Contraction of underlying output in Russia • Rising gross demand • Autocatalyst demand for pa
Slide 25: Palladium supply
Palladium supply In 2012, global palladium supplies to fall to lowest level since 2003 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 26: Palladium supply
Palladium supply ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change South Africa 2,560 2,400 (6) Russia primary 2,705 2,600 (4) Russia stocks 775 250 (68) North America 900 890 (1) Zimbabwe 265 280 6 Others 155 150 (3) Total 7,360 6,570 (11) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 27: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 7,360 6,570 (10.7) Autocatalyst 6,030 6,480 7 Industrial 2,480 2,410 (2.8) JewelleryRecord year for 505 demand (10.9) autocatalyst450 Investment (565) 385 (168.1) Growth in all markets Gross Demand 8,450 apart9,725 from Europe 15.1 Recycling (2,34
Slide 28: Gross palladium autocatalyst demand
Gross palladium autocatalyst demand Higher purchasing in other regions to offset declining European demand in 2012 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 29: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 7,360 6,570 (10.7) Autocatalyst 6,030 6,480 7 Industrial 2,480 2,410 (3) Jewellery 505 450 (10.9) Investment (565) 385 (168.1) Gross Demand 8,450 9,725 15.1 Recycling (2,345) (2,240) (4.5) Stock Movement 1,255 (915) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 30: Palladium industrial demand
Palladium industrial demand Growth in chemical demand, declining electrical and dental demand in 2012 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 31: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 7,360 6,570 (10.7) Autocatalyst 6,030 6,480 7 Industrial 2,480 2,410 (3) Jewellery 505 450 (11) Investment (565) 385 (168.1) Gross Demand 8,450 9,725 15.1 Recycling (2,345) (2,240) (4.5) Stock Movement 1,255 (915) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 32: Gross palladium jewellery demand
Gross palladium jewellery demand Further weakening of the Chinese market in 2012 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 33: Palladium demand
Palladium demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supplies 7,360 6,570 (10.7) Autocatalyst 6,030 6,480 7 Industrial 2,480 2,410 (3) Jewellery 505 450 (11) Investment (565) 385 () Gross Demand 8,450 9,725 15.1 Recycling (2,345) (2,240) (4.5) Stock Movement 1,255 (915) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 34: Palladium ETFs in Europe and North America
Palladium ETFs in Europe and North America ETF investment demand turned positive again in 2012 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 35: Palladium ETF holdings
Palladium ETF holdings www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 36: Palladium supply and demand
Palladium supply and demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supply 7,360 6,570 (11) Autocatalyst 6,030 6,480 7 Industrial 2,480 2,410 (3) Jewellery 505 450 (11) Investment (565) 385 Gross demand 8,450 9,725 15 Recycling (2,345) (2,240) (4.5) Stock Movement 1,255 (915) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 37: Palladium supply and demand
Palladium supply and demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supply 7,360 6,570 (11) Gross demand 8,450 9,725 15 Recycling (2,345) (2,240) (4) Stock Movement () www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 38: Palladium recycling
Palladium recycling In 2012, collectors have been holding on to autocatalyst scrap in anticipation of higher prices www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 39: Palladium supply and demand
Palladium supply and demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supply 7,360 6,570 (11) Gross demand 8,450 9,725 15 Recycling (2,345) (2,240) (4) Net demand 6,105 7,485 23 Stock movement 1,255 (915) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 40: Rhodium supply and demand
Rhodium supply and demand ‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change Supply 765 703 (8) Gross demand 906 973 7 Recycling (280) (227) (19) Net demand 626 746 19 Stock movement 139 (43) www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 41: Outlook
Outlook www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 42: Platinum: 2013 outlook
Platinum: 2013 outlook • Supply: • Ongoing disruption and possible restructuring of the South African pgm mining industry • Difficult to expect an increase in global supply on 2012 levels • Demand: • Modest growth forecast • Steady performance in autocatalyst and industrial applications • Investment
Slide 43: Platinum price forecast: the next six months
Platinum price forecast: the next six months $/oz 2,000 1,900 1,800 $1,800 1,700 $1,625 1,600 1,500 1,400 $1,400 1,300 2011 2012 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 44: Palladium: 2013 outlook
Palladium: 2013 outlook • Supply: • Few or no Russian state stock sales • Limited opportunity for growth in primary supplies • Demand: • Another year of solid autocatalyst demand expected • Industrial demand also forecast to be robust The response of investment demand and recycling to price movement
Slide 45: Palladium price forecast: the next six months
Palladium price forecast: the next six months $/oz 900 850 800 750 $750 700 650 $650 600 550 $550 500 2011 2012 www.platinum.matthey.com
Slide 46: #PlatinumInt2012
#PlatinumInt2012 www.platinum.matthey.com