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Allianz — Allianz Commercial — Allianz Commercial Webinar: Political violence and civil unrest trends 2025

30 slides from Allianz's conference presentation, May 6, 2025

Slide 1: Political violence and civil unrest trends 2025
Political violence and civil unrest trends 2025 Allianz Commercial Webinar © Allianz Commercial 2025 May 6, 2025
Slide 2: Speakers
Speakers Srdjan Todorovic Rishi Baviskar James Marsh Sarah Versavaud Head of Political Violence Global Head of Cyber Risk Senior Underwriter Political Political Violence and Terrorism and Hostile Environment Consulting, Allianz Commercial Violence and Terrorism, Claims Global Practice Lead, Solution
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda 1 Overview 5 New tech versus old tech increases the threat of rogue state-triggered damage and disruption 2 Civil unrest trends 6 Political violence and civil unrest claims outlook 3 Terrorism risk 7 Q&A 4 Hybrid threats, state-sponsored sabotage © Allianz Commercial 2025 3
Slide 4: Ask your questions!
4 Ask your questions! Your questions are welcome on the Slido Q&A platform. To get started: Please post your questions Or scan the QR code: Or post them online at slido.com directly in Webex using the (‘Join as a participant’) and window on the right side. enter the passcode: allianz-1 © Allianz Com
Slide 6: The most important business risks in 2025: global
The most important business risks in 2025: global Cyber incidents (e.g., cyber crime, Fire, explosion 1 IT network and service disruptions, 6 38% malware/ransomware, data breaches, 2024: 17% 2024: fines, and penalties) 1 (36%) 6 (19%) Business interruption (incl. Macroeconomic 2 supply chain disrupt
Slide 7: Which political risk and violence exposures are your company most worried about?
Which political risk and violence exposures are your company most worried about? The impact of civil unrest or strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) is the exposure companies fear the most, according to more than half of Allianz Risk Barometer respondents. © Allianz Commercial 2025 Source: Allia
Slide 9: Strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) - top political violence risk in 2025
Strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) - top political violence risk in 2025 • Civil unrest or strikes, riots, and civil commotion (SRCC) ranked as the #1 political risk globally (Allianz Risk Barometer 2025) o Main concern: in Colombia, France, South Africa, UK, and US +image • 2024 election yea
Slide 10: 2025 Protests – outlook
2025 Protests – outlook • Governmental and policy changes – countries will grapple with changing direction – some more than others • Geopolitics and trade wars to: • increase nationalism • amplify differences • increase division • raise cost of living • Changes on Environmental policy to mobilise, s
Slide 12: Rise of terrorist and extremist threats
Rise of terrorist and extremist threats • Islamist groups and far-right movements are intensifying global risks • Europe saw a 63% rise in terrorist attacks (2024 vs 2023) o Sunni extremist threats expected to grow, fueled by crises in Gaza, Lebanon, and response to anti immigration position on Euro
Slide 13: Emerging terrorist groups and growing far-right extremism
Emerging terrorist groups and growing far-right extremism • ISIS-K targeted mass-casualty sites (e.g., Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow, 140+ killed) • Power vacuums (e.g., Syria) risk boosting militant group expansion • Far-right terrorism identified as a fastest-growing +image domestic threat (UN
Slide 14: Evolving extremist tactics and future risks
Evolving extremist tactics and future risks • Lone actors present (again) growing challenges: harder to detect, disrupt, and prevent • Far-left extremists increasingly target companies and individuals linked to capitalism, climate change, or +image inequality • Environmental/Climate activist shift t
Slide 16: Rising threat of state-sponsored sabotage
16 Rising threat of state- sponsored sabotage • Covert sabotage expected to persist, even if current wars end • Private sector assets, especially critical infrastructure, are prime targets • Sectors at high risk: oil & gas, telecommunications, utilities — but all businesses are vulnerable • Russia c
Slide 17: Growing scale and reach of hybrid attacks
17 Growing scale and reach of hybrid attacks Documented Russian sabotage incidents in Europe rose from 13 (2023) to 44 (2024) (Leiden University) Targets shifting westward from Scandinavia and the Baltics Hybrid tactics include: Physical Espionage: ~200 Attacks on water Broader sabotage sabotage, cy
Slide 18: New tech versus old tech increases the threat of rogue state-triggered damage and disruption
New tech versus old tech increases the threat of rogue state-triggered damage and disruption © Allianz Commercial 2025
Slide 19: Which cyber exposures concern your company most?
Which cyber exposures concern your company most? Attacks on critical infrastructure and physical assets ranks second globally in the most concerning cyber exposures for businesses Data breaches 61% Cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure and physical assets 57% Increase in malware/ ransomware attac
Slide 20: Critical infrastructure under attack
Critical infrastructure under attack Examples of cyber threats to infrastructure: Key sectors vulnerable: • Energy • Covid-19 era: Healthcare cyber • Utilities espionage • Transportation • Manufacturing and • $1.5bn Bybit crypto hack (North Korea, production 2025) • Healthcare • Water utilities in T
Slide 21: Rising cyber threats and the spread of misinformation
Rising cyber threats and the spread of misinformation Increased digital reliance and geopolitical instability heighten cyber-attack risks. Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) actors exploit: +add image +add image +add image © Allianz Commercial 2025 Mis/disinformation fuel political Cyber espionage tar
Slide 22: Strengthening Cyber Resilience
Strengthening Cyber Resilience Mitigation strategies: • Cyber risk dialogue and full value chain assessments • Robust business continuity plans (critical function recovery, backup systems, communications) • Penetration testing, threat intelligence integration, security awareness training • Emerging
Slide 23: Political violence and civil unrest claims outlook
Political violence and civil unrest claims outlook © Allianz Commercial 2025
Slide 24: Global snapshot: Major political violence and civil unrest events (2019–2024)
24 Global snapshot: Major political violence and civil unrest events (2019–2024) Russia – Ukraine war Hamas - Israel conflict Chilean Unrest Colombian Protests George Floyd Protests Ukraine Gaza Chile Colombia United States Feb 2022–present Oct 2022-present Oct–Dec 2019 Apr–Jul 2021 May–Jun 2020 Ham
Slide 25: Focus on French riots: 2005 vs 2023
Focus on French riots: 2005 vs 2023 • 2023 events more violent and propagating more quickly than in 2005 • Media and social networks played a dominant role, encouraging the spread and escalation of malicious acts • Some areas notably spared, often due to low urbanization or an older population Claim
Slide 26: Political violence and civil unrest claims handling: Managing Practical Challenges
Political violence and civil unrest claims handling: Managing Practical Challenges Key Challenges: • Event qualification • Site access issues • Evidence collection • Language clarity (English policies in non- English markets) Practical Solutions: • Remote assessment tools • Preparedness • Damage Doc
Slide 28: Ask your questions!
28 Ask your questions! Your questions are welcome on the Slido Q&A platform. To get started: Please post your questions Or scan the QR code: Or post them online at slido.com directly in Webex using the (‘Join as a participant’) and window on the right side. enter the passcode: allianz-1 © Allianz Co
Slide 29: Download the Political violence and civil unrest trends 2025 report
Download the Political violence and civil unrest trends 2025 report Interested in learning more about Political violence and civil unrest Insurance? Download our latest report on our website: https://commercial.allianz.com/news-and- insights/reports/political-violence-and-civil-unrest-trends.html ©

Allianz Commercial — Allianz Commercial Webinar: Political violence and civil unrest trends 2025 on 6ix

Allianz — Allianz Commercial — Allianz Commercial Webinar: Political violence and civil unrest trends 2025

Slide 1: Political violence and civil unrest trends 2025

Slide 2: Speakers

Slide 3: Agenda

Slide 4: Ask your questions!

Slide 5: Overview

Slide 6: The most important business risks in 2025: global

Slide 7: Which political risk and violence exposures are your company most worried about?

Slide 8: Civil unrest trends

Slide 9: Strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) - top political violence risk in 2025

Slide 10: 2025 Protests – outlook

Slide 11: Terrorism risk

Slide 12: Rise of terrorist and extremist threats

Slide 13: Emerging terrorist groups and growing far-right extremism

Slide 14: Evolving extremist tactics and future risks

Slide 15: Hybrid threats state-sponsored sabotage

Slide 16: Rising threat of state-sponsored sabotage

Slide 17: Growing scale and reach of hybrid attacks

Slide 18: New tech versus old tech increases the threat of rogue state-triggered damage and disruption

Slide 19: Which cyber exposures concern your company most?

Slide 20: Critical infrastructure under attack

Slide 21: Rising cyber threats and the spread of misinformation

Slide 22: Strengthening Cyber Resilience

Slide 23: Political violence and civil unrest claims outlook

Slide 24: Global snapshot: Major political violence and civil unrest events (2019–2024)

Slide 25: Focus on French riots: 2005 vs 2023

Slide 26: Political violence and civil unrest claims handling: Managing Practical Challenges

Slide 27: Q&A

Slide 28: Ask your questions!

Slide 29: Download the Political violence and civil unrest trends 2025 report

Slide 30: Thank you!