Sanlam Limited · JSE:SLM
Sanlam — Sanlam Institutional Summit 2014
25 slides from Sanlam's conference presentation, September 2014
Slide 1: Challenges Trends Opportunities
Challenges Trends Opportunities Institutiona Insights © Saniam
Slide 2: Sanlam Institutional Summit: Assessing the African opportunity
Sanlam Institutional Summit Assessing the African opportunity September 2014
Slide 3: EY in Africa
EY in Africa Follow us on Twitter: @EY_Africa
Slide 4: Africa attractiveness surveys 2011 - 2014
Africa attractiveness surveys 2011 - 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 “It’s time for Africa” “Building bridges” “Getting down to “Executing growth” business”
Slide 5: Africa's rise is real!
Africa’s rise is real! The size of the African economy has trebled in a decade GDP, current prices (US$b) 2,737.4 2,535.8 3,030.9 2,249.2 1,870.7 2,593.0 1,060.1 2,091.4 2,196.7 1,929.3 2,033.9 898.6 697.7 725.7 1,488.1 614.9 689.9 1,337.1 447.1 523.3 853.3 1,970.8 613.5 1,471.0 1,694.4 285.3 1,314.
Slide 6: Continued growth
Continued growth Five year forecast Five year forecast GDP growth rates (%) indicated on a colour spectrum: Green (higher) to red (lower) In the context of a still weak global economy, we remain Sources: Oxford Economics; positive about Africa’s overall economic prospects. EY Growing Beyond Borders.
Slide 7: Investor perceptions
Investor perceptions A dramatic improvement Respondents citing an improvement in Africa’s attractiveness as a place to do business Attractiveness over the past year 60% +4 points Change vs. 2013 survey Attractiveness over the next three years 73% +1 point Change vs. 2013 survey Source: EY’s 2014 Afr
Slide 8: Although a perception gap remains
Although a perception gap remains Established vs. not established Respondents who… …believe Africa’s attractiveness has improved over the past year 73% 39% Established Not established …believe Africa’s attractiveness will improve over the next three years 87% 51% Established Not established …have a
Slide 9: Actual FDI numbers
Actual FDI numbers A mixed picture FDI projects in Africa 218 352 181 129 259 215 164 196 647 593 621 524 486 460 226 213 Source: fDi Intelligence; EY analysis North Africa SSA
Slide 10: Key trends
key trends @ Sanlam
Slide 11: Key trend 1: Significant shift momentum towards SSA
Key trend 1 Significant shift momentum towards SSA FDI projects FDI amount (2003-13, %) (2003-13, %) 84.3% 77.8% 80.4% SSA SSA 51.6% 54.6% 60.8% 48.4% 45.4% North Africa 39.2% North Africa 22.2% 19.6% 15.7% 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: fDi Intelligence; EY analysis
Slide 12: East, Southern and West Africa
East, Southern and West Africa FDI growth spreads across New FDI hotspots are emerging in Africa CAGR (2007-13) 51% 40% 33% 31% 23% 20% 19% 17% 6% South Mozambique Zambia Kenya Tanzania Uganda Rwanda Ghana Nigeria Africa Southern Africa East Africa West Africa CAGR: 14% CAGR: 23% CAGR: 28% Share: 33
Slide 13: Key trend 2: Intra-African investment momentum builds
Key trend 2 Intra-African investment momentum builds FDI projects by source region African investors’ share of FDI projects: ► 8% in 2003 ► 23% in 2013 Source: fDi Intelligence
Slide 14: Key trend 2: Intra-African investment momentum builds
Key trend 2 Intra-African investment momentum builds Intra-African investment momentum builds (Share of total FDI projects) Intra-African investors (2007-2013): ► 35% of projects from South Africa ► 16% from Kenya ► 12% from Nigeria Source: fDi Intelligence; EY analysis
Slide 15: Key trend 3: Ongoing sector diversification
Key trend 3 Ongoing sector diversification Consumer-facing industries rise in prominence Although investors expect resource-driven sectors to remain the highest potential industries over the next two years, in line with what the actual numbers tell us, infrastructure and consumer-facing sectors are
Slide 16: Key trend 4: Emerging urban hubs
Key trend 4 Emerging urban hubs Top 15 African states/provinces for FDI projects (Share of total FDI projects) Nearly 70% of the respondents stressed the significance of cities and urban centers in their investment strategy in Africa Source: fDi Intelligence; EY’s 2014 Africa attractiveness survey (
Slide 17: ROI from African investments among the best in the world
ROI from African investments among the best in the world As of 31 August 2014 Market 1 yr return 3 yr return 5 yr return Botswana 9.3% -0.8% 8.7% BVRM 21.2% 53.7% 63.7% Dar es Sal 44.8% 83.6% 59.6% JSE 21.2% 2.5% 41.9% Lusaka 16.4% 36.3% 87.8% Nairobi 30.0% 118.9% 103.7% Namibia 11.3% 17.7% 73.7% Ni
Slide 18: Private equity continues to grow and outperform
Private equity continues to grow and outperform Source: EMPEA, AVCA & EY.
Slide 19: Reality check
reality check @ Sanlam
Slide 20: However, Africa remains a challenging place to do business
However, Africa remains a challenging place to do business Source: Kai Krause
Slide 21: Critical success factors
Critical success factors Source: EY; Africa Business CenterTM.
Slide 22: Our message to African governments: Seek the right kind of investment
Our message to African governments: Seek the right kind of investment ► Inclusive, sustainable growth which encompasses widespread job creation is critical to governments across the globe ► Even more critical in Africa and other emerging markets where extreme poverty and inequality are huge challeng
Slide 23: Promoting priorities for realizing Africa's possibilities
Promoting 5 priorities for realizing Africa’s possibilities Source: EY; Africa Business CenterTM.
Slide 24: Deliberately choose your perspective on Africa
Deliberately choose your perspective on Africa … 2001 2011 2014 Page 24
Slide 25: Thank you
thank you®