Apa Group · ASX:APA
Apa — Technical Presentation (July 2022)
9 slides from Apa's technical presentation, Jul 28, 2022
Slide 1: VTS Accelerated depreciation: Scenario analysis
28 July 2022 VTS Accelerated depreciation Scenario analysis
Slide 2: ACIL Allen's brief
ACIL Allen’s brief – Assess the need to bring forward depreciation as demand falls on the VTS through the energy market transition – net-zero by 2050 – Natural gas demand is expected to fall to much lower levels, but not necessarily to zero (potential to use offsets) – VTS may transport some hydroge
Slide 3: The future for natural gas
The future for natural gas – Net zero emissions by 2050 is a fundamental factor in all gas forecasts. – Hydrogen or electrification – Economics of hydrogen may be better in the long run but intermediate economics may favour electrification – Government policy through subsidies and regulation of usag
Slide 4: AEMO demand projections – Progressive change
AEMO demand projections – Progressive change 250.00 – Shaded period is projection beyond AEMO forecast – Demand relatively stable to 2040 200.00 – Residential/commercial demand commences to fall from 2035 (electrification) VTS Annual gas demand (PJ) 150.00 – declines to around 20 PJ by 2053 100.00 –
Slide 5: AEMO demand projections – Step change
AEMO demand projections – Step change 250.00 – Shaded period is projection beyond AEMO forecast – Demand falls consistently from the start 200.00 of the forecast – Residential/commercial demand falls from 2023 and declines faster than in VTS Annual gas demand (PJ) 150.00 Progressive change – decline
Slide 6: AEMO demand projections – Delayed step change
AEMO demand projections – Delayed step change 250.00 – Shaded period is projection beyond AEMO forecast – Demand relatively stable to 2028 200.00 and then follows delayed trajectory of Step change – Residential/commercial demand VTS Annual gas demand (PJ) 150.00 falls slightly from 2023 and declines
Slide 7: Comparison of scenarios
Comparison of scenarios 250.00 200.00 VTS Annual gas consumption (PJ) 150.00 100.00 50.00 - Progressive Change Step Change Delayed step change 7
Slide 8: Next steps
Next steps – Model to estimate the variations in the depreciation schedule – Maintain constant average tariff in $2022 – Match life of the asset to expected usage as it declines – Significant potential variation in future demand – May not result in straight line depreciation – Determine the residual
Slide 9: Paul Hyslop contact details
Paul Hyslop M: +61 417 392 079 E: p.hyslop@acilallen.com.au