Erg S.p.A. · MIL:ERG
Erg — FY2018 Earnings Presentation
35 slides from Erg's earnings presentation, Mar 7, 2019
Slide 1: FY 2018 Results & Strategy Update
FY 2018 Results & Strategy Update 7 MARCH 2019 LUCA BETTONTE, CEO
Slide 2: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based. There can be non assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove t
Slide 3: Agenda
AGENDA FY 2018 Results 2019 Guidance 2018-2022 Business Plan Update Appendix 3
Slide 4: Highlights: Key Figures
HIGHLIGHTS: KEY FIGURES Adjusted EBITDA (€ mn) Adjusted Net Profit (€ mn) 491 117 472 CCGT Hydro 107 Solar Wind Corporate EBITDA Margin 116 109 29 15 Restated Restated Restated(1) Restated(1) 2017 2018 4Q 2017 4Q 2018 NFP (€ mn) 2017 2018 4Q 2017 4Q 2018 1,343(2) 1,233 NFP excl. Derivatives Derivati
Slide 5: FY 2018 Results vs Guidance
FY 2018 RESULTS VS GUIDANCE 490-500 491 ≃475 Adj. EBITDA: Higher than initial Guidance and in the range 2018 Actual Revised Guidance Initial Guidance 520-540 510 ≃450 Guidance range Guidance Actual CAPEX: Slightly below Guidance range 2018 Actual Revised Guidance Initial Guidance 1,343(1) ≃1,350 ≃1,
Slide 6: Results Review
RESULTS REVIEW PAOLO MERLI, CFO
Slide 7: Business Environment
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT Italy: Electricity Production vs Demand (TWh) Clean Spark Spread Indicator (€/MWh) 4Q 2017 4Q 2018 Delta % Italian Electricity Demand 80 80 0% Italian Electricity Production 71 70 -1% of which: - Thermo 54 50 -8% - Hydro 7 11 66% - Solar 4 3 -6% - Wind 5 5 -6% - Other Sources 1
Slide 8: 2018 Group EBITDA Evolution
2018 GROUP EBITDA EVOLUTION 53 (26) 491 472 (42) 1 32 53 78 146 94 32 316 274 (16) (15) 2017 Wind Solar Hydro CCGT Corporate 2018 Wind Solar Hydro CCGT Corporate 8
Slide 9: Energy Portfolio
ENERGY PORTFOLIO Wind Capacity Sun Capacity Water Capacity Natural Gas Capacity 1,822MW 90MW 527MW 480MW 2018 Production 2018 Production 2018 Production 2018 Production 3,464GWh 130GWh 1,740GWh 2,151GWh Total 2018 Production: 7.5TWh Total Energy Portfolio including hedging & other sales: 13.6TWh 9
Slide 10: Wind Results
WIND RESULTS Adjusted Ebitda (€ mn) Volumes (GWh) 316 3,613 2 19 29 3,464 25 274 606 29 3 533 30 24 22 369 337 30 491 552 241 2,117 195 2,012 89 1,081 2 75 29 955 5 10 171 10 98 132 152 155 103 10 177 63 49 594 522 2017 2018 4Q 2017 4Q 2018 2017 2018 4Q 2017 4Q 2018 Italy France Germany East Europe
Slide 11: Solar Results
SOLAR RESULTS Adjusted Ebitda (€ mn) Volumes (GWh) 32 130 4 20 2018 4Q 2018 2018 4Q 2018 11
Slide 12: Hydro Results
HYDRO RESULTS Adjusted Ebitda (€ mn) Volumes (GWh) 146 1,740 94 1,144 28 338 20 260 2017 2018 4Q 2017 4Q 2018 2017 2018 4Q 2017 4Q 2018 12
Slide 13: CCGT Results
CCGT RESULTS Adjusted Ebitda (€ mn) Volumes (GWh) 78 2,453 2,151 53 641 16 506 5 2017 2018 4Q 2017 4Q 2018 2017 2018 4Q 2017 4Q 2018 13
Slide 14: Investments
INVESTMENTS 510 CCGT Hydro Solar Wind Corporate 345 94 17 26 14
Slide 15: Key Financials
KEY FINANCIALS (1)
Slide 16: Adjusted P&L
ADJUSTED P&L Restated Restated 2018 Euro millions 4Q 2018 2017 4Q 2017 491 472 Adjusted EBITDA 109 116 (275) (252) Amortization and depreciation (71) (64) 216 220 Adjusted EBIT 38 52 (70) (66) Net financial income (expenses) (17) (16) (0) (1) Net income (loss) from equity investments (0) (1) 146 153
Slide 17: 2018 Cash Flow Statement
2018 CASH FLOW STATEMENT 171 (285) 70 21 114 1,343 1,233 510 (491) 42% 40% Net Debt Adj. CAPEX & Net working Financial Net Debt Others Dividends Disposals(1) 31/12/2017 EBITDA Acquisitions capital charges 31/12/2018 Leverage (1) It includes €179mn referred to TotalERG disposal (on January 10, 2018),
Slide 18: 2019 Guidance
2019 GUIDANCE LUCA BETTONTE, CEO
Slide 19: 2019 Guidance
2019 GUIDANCE 495-515 491 Adj. EBITDA: Guidance range at €495-515mn 2018 2019 FCST(1) 510 340-370 Guidance range Guidance CAPEX: Actual Guidance range at €340-370mn 2018 2019 FCST 1,360-1,440 1,343(2) NFP: Guidance range at €1.36-1.44bn 2018 2019 FCST(1) (1) 2019 Guidance does not include IFRS 16 ef
Slide 20: 2018-2022 Business Plan Update
2018-2022 BUSINESS PLAN UPDATE
Slide 21: 2018: A Big Step Forward in the BP Execution
2018: A BIG STEP FORWARD IN THE BP EXECUTION Business Achievements ESG Achievements 1 Full exit from oil through the sale of TotalERG 1 ERG included in the ECPI Global Clean Energy Index Enhanced technological diversification in 2 steps: 2 +141MW(1) high quality solar 2 Achieved rating B from CDP Ex
Slide 22: ERG 2018-2022 Capacity Evolution
ERG 2018-2022 CAPACITY EVOLUTION STRONG EXECUTION IN 2018 Growth in installed capacity (MW) Greenfield & CoDev Wind: 55MW Vent D’Est 16MW M&A Vaa2 13MW Le Melier (EPURON) 8MW Solar: 141MW(1) Torfou (EPURON) 18MW ForVEI 89MW Andromeda(2) 51MW M&A: +250MW ≃3,600 +≃850MW Repowering: +260MW 141 55 2,970
Slide 23: Greenfield Development Well on Track
GREENFIELD DEVELOPMENT WELL ON TRACK Pipeline included in BP 2018-22 Pipeline as of today ≃350 ≃350 Secured: 247MW • France Secured: 135MW - Vent D’Est(2) 16MW • France - Vaa2(2) 13MW - Vent D’Est(2) 16MW - Vaa2 ext. 7MW - Vaa2(1) 13MW - Le Melier(2) 8MW • Germany - Torfou(2) 18MW - Linda 22MW • Ger
Slide 24: Repowering & Reblading in Progress
REPOWERING & REBLADING IN PROGRESS Repowering Reblading ≃860 ≃75 ≃10 ≃65 40 ≃420 ≃400 Target BP 2018-22 Engineering for Authorization 22 Authorization process 153 Construction 13 MW for RPW MW after MW for RBL Project MW for RBL in BP 2018-22 RPW in BP 2018-22 substitution(1) as of 07/03/2019 • 184M
Slide 25: Driving into 2023
DRIVING INTO 2023 Pros • Exploiting full potential of Repowering: focus on all the 500MW eligible in Italy • Boosting growth abroad leveraging on more than 700MW of pipeline in France and of the co-development agreements under negotiation in UK and Germany • Work in progress for a new cogeneration p
Slide 26: Financials – Updated Projections
FINANCIALS – UPDATED PROJECTIONS Adj. EBITDA CAPEX 510 ≃450 340-370 495-515 ≃310 491 ≃475 ≃475 New Plan Old Plan NFP 1,360-1,440 1,343 ≃1,295 ≃1,260 Acceleration of targets in the first years of BP 26
Slide 27: Appendix
APPENDIX (1)
Slide 28: 4Q 2018 Group EBITDA Evolution
4Q 2018 GROUP EBITDA EVOLUTION 116 (14) 8 (11) 16 4 6 109 5 20 28 4 89 75 (10) (3) 4Q 2017 Wind Solar Hydro CCGT Corporate 4Q 2018 Wind Solar Hydro CCGT Corporate 28
Slide 29: 4Q 2018 Cash Flow Statement
4Q 2018 CASH FLOW STATEMENT 1,389 (109) 17 13 1,343 26 7 43% 42% Net Debt Net working Financial Net Debt Adj. EBITDA CAPEX Others 30/09/2018 capital charges 31/12/2018 Leverage 29
Slide 30: Wind: Key Figures (1/2)
WIND: KEY FIGURES (1/2) 2018 2017 4Q 2018 4Q 2017 1,822 1,814 Installed capacity (end-period, MW) 1,822 1,814 of which: 1,093 1,093 - Italy 1,093 1,093 307 252 - France 307 252 216 216 - Germany 216 216 82 82 - Poland 82 82 70 70 - Romania 70 70 54 54 - Bulgaria 54 54 0 48 - UK 0 48 3,464 3,613 Elec
Slide 31: Wind: Key Figures (2/2)
WIND: KEY FIGURES (2/2) 2018 2017 Euro millions 4Q 2018 4Q 2017 Unitary Revenues (€/MWh): 125 144 - Italy 124 138 87 88 - France 88 87 95 96 - Germany 96 98 64 45 - Poland 77 47 58 58 - Romania 74 59 75 64 - Bulgaria 84 66 Adjusted EBITDA: 195 241 - Italy 49 63 30 30 - France 10 10 22 25 - Germany 8
Slide 32: Solar: Key Figures
SOLAR: KEY FIGURES 2018 2017 Euro millions 4Q 2018 4Q 2017 130 n.a. Electricity Prodution (GWh) 20 n.a. 294 n.a. Unitary Revenues (€/MWh) 284 n.a. 32 n.a. Adjusted EBITDA 4 n.a. (24) n.a. Depreciation (9) n.a. 8 n.a. Adjusted EBIT (5) n.a. 32
Slide 33: Hydro: Key Figures
HYDRO: KEY FIGURES 2018 2017 Euro millions 4Q 2018 4Q 2017 1,740 1,144 Electricity Prodution (GWh) 338 260 107 110 Unitary Revenues (€/MWh) 114 122 146 94 Adjusted EBITDA 28 20 (58) (58) Depreciation (15) (15) 88 35 Adjusted EBIT 14 6 33
Slide 34: CCGT: Key Figures
CCGT: KEY FIGURES 2018 2017 Euro millions 4Q 2018 4Q 2017 2,151 2,453 Electricity Prodution (GWh) 506 641 41 46 Unitary Revenues (€/MWh) 37 46 53 78 Adjusted EBITDA 5 16 (31) (31) Depreciation (8) (8) 22 48 Adjusted EBIT (3) 8 34
Slide 35: Investments
INVESTMENTS 2018 2017 Euro millions 4Q 2018 4Q 2017 146 75 Wind 17 9 345 n.a. Solar 0 n.a. 7 6 Hydro 4 3 8 10 CCGT 4 4 3 3 Corporate 1 1 510 94 Total 26 17 35