Xcel Energy Inc. · NASDAQ:XEL
Xcel Energy — Technical Presentation (October 2011)
21 slides from Xcel Energy's technical presentation, Oct 12, 2011
Slide 1: SPS IRP Fundamentals
SPS IRP Fundamentals Craig Berg, Senior Resource Planner October 12, 2011 1
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda Resource Planning Objectives Resource Planning Process Resource Planning Tools/Concepts L&R Table Supply Curve Load Duration Curves Dispatch Models Key Planning Considerations 2
Slide 3: Resource Planning Objectives
Resource Planning Objectives 1. Plan for capacity additions to promote the reliable operation of the electrical system 2. Minimize present worth of costs (fixed & variable) 3. Adhere to laws/regulations (environmental) 3
Slide 4: Resource Planning Process
Resource Planning Process Load Existing SPS DSM Impact Forecast System Info Strategist Generation Generic Simulate And Fuel Technologies SPS System Spot Market Bid Offers Resource Expansion Plans 4
Slide 5: After initial modeling using generic resources, solicit RFP Responses
After initial modeling using generic resources, solicit RFP Responses Issue RFP Bids are due 90 –120 days after issuance of RFP Bid information includes: Markup of Model PPA Project development schedule Capacity MW offered & Price ($/kW-mo) Guaranteed Heat Rates VOM, FOM, EFOR, Maint
Slide 6: Screen Bids
Screen Bids Objective: Reduce the number of bids down to a more manageable group Eliminate bids that don’t meet minimum bid criteria Eliminate bids that cannot be developed within proposed schedule Eliminate bids based on screening analysis using spreadsheet models 6
Slide 7: Develop Resource Portfolios
Develop Resource Portfolios Model bids as “Alternatives” from which STRATEGIST can construct Least-Cost Plans under a variety of future assumptions Gas Prices ($4.00, $6.00, $8.00) High and low peak demand and sales Inflation rates Environmental regulations (SO2, NOx, Hg, CO2) Select mul
Slide 8: Select Winning Bidders
Select Winning Bidders Considering Capital RR/ECC, system dispatch costs, transmission infrastructure costs, and proposed markups to Model PPA Complete contract negotiations with winning bidders File for appropriate regulatory approvals 8
Slide 9: Graphical Representation of L&R
“Graphical Representation of L&R” 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 Wholesale + 13.6% 4,000 Retail + 13.6% Net Dep. Gen (Incl. J4) 3,500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 9
Slide 10: SPS Supply Curve
SPS Supply Curve $180.00 30.00 $160.00 25.00 $140.00 Gas equiv. HR (mmBTU/MWh) Production cost ($/MWh) $120.00 20.00 $100.00 15.00 $80.00 $60.00 10.00 $40.00 5.00 $20.00 $0.00 0.00 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Cumulative MW 10
Slide 11: SPS 2013 & 2020 Load Duration Curves
SPS 2013 & 2020 Load Duration Curves SPS 2013 & 2020 Load Duration Curves 5,800 5,300 4,800 4,300 MW 3,800 3,300 2,800 2,300 1,800 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % of Hours 2013 L 2020 L Coal&Wind NG Gen 11
Slide 12: STRATEGIST Dispatch Model
STRATEGIST Dispatch Model SPS Supply Generation Resources Alternatives CER Module GAF Module LFA PROVIEW Module Optimization Demand and Energy Least-Cost Plans Forecast 12
Slide 13: Capital Expenditure and Recovery Module (CER)
Capital Expenditure and Recovery Module (CER) Function: Model the revenue requirements and provide other key financials with respect to different capital projects Applications: Comparison of alternative projects/portfolios Expansion planning analysis for PROVIEW 13
Slide 14: Capital Cost Recovery Profiles
“Capital Cost Recovery Profiles” $100 Million Investment $20,000,000 $18,000,000 $16,000,000 $14,000,000 RR $12,000,000 Levelized $10,000,000 ECC $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Years 14
Slide 15: Generation and Fuel Module (GAF)
Generation and Fuel Module (GAF) Function: Calculate System Production Costs Applications: Evaluate generation fuel mix Examine emissions compliance Analyze high/low fuel prices & portfolio risk 15
Slide 16: Identify Resource Need by Type
Identify Resource Need by Type Demand and Energy Forecast Monthly demand forecast at the generator level for 20 years Monthly energy sales forecast at customer meter for 20 years Use Historical Load Shape Take 8760 load shape => EEI processor => Typical week load duration curve One load
Slide 17: PROVIEW
PROVIEW Function: Determine the most cost effective mix and timing of possible resource additions and rank them based upon objective function (NPV of Revenue Req.) Applications: Develop optimal mix of owned and purchased resources by resource type Plans ranked by the defined objective function (
Slide 18: Key Planning Considerations
Key Planning Considerations Available Resource Options Multiple Jurisdictions (TX, NM and FERC) Different rules in various jurisdictions Different modeling assumptions Different cost allocation and cost recovery Load Forecast Uncertainty Capital lease issues Model Inputs (fuel prices
Slide 19: Available Resource Options
Available Resource Options Nuclear Escalating capital cost & waste issue not resolved Energy Efficiency and Load Management Minimizes use of societal resources Hedge against fuel cost uncertainties Coal Community opposition Capture/sequestration not resolved Exposure to carbon cost
Slide 20: Available Resource Options (cont.)
Available Resource Options (cont.) Natural Gas Fuel price uncertainty Exposure to carbon costs Renewables Escalating capital cost Transmission limited Integration costs 20
Slide 21: Xcel Energy
Xcel Energy’ RESPONSIBLE BY NATURE™ Q