Aksa Enerji Uretim A.s. · BIST:AKSEN
Aksa Enerji Uretim A.s — Aksa Enerji — Q1 2015 Earnings Presentation
40 slides from Aksa Enerji Uretim A.s's earnings presentation, May 8, 2015
Slide 1: Aksa Enerji: The leading IPP in Turkey
Aksa Enerji The leading IPP in Turkey Earnings Presentation 8 May 2015
Slide 2: Key investment highlights
Key investment highlights 1 Part of a dedicated energy group 2 Second largest Independent Power Producer (IPP) in Turkey 3 Strong exposure to growing Turkish electricity market 4 Large portfolio with 19 operational assets totalling 2,151 MW 5 Diversified pipeline of 9 projects adding 1,496 MW to our
Slide 3: We are part of a dedicated energy group
We are part of a dedicated energy group Entered energy business in 1960s with the production of generating sets Focused only on the energy sector since then Gradually expanded into main segments of electricity & natural gas Kazancı Group Excellent track record in building and integrating ene
Slide 4: We are the second largest IPP in Turkey with 2,151MW installed capacity
We are the second largest IPP in Turkey with 2,151MW installed capacity IPPs by Installed Capacity 2.548 2.151 1.605 1.585 1.490 (MW) 1.288 952 745 410 365 Enerjisa Aksa Enerji İÇDAŞ Limak Eren Enerji Akenerji Cengiz Zorlu Enerji Bis Enerji AES Entek Source: Information obtained from each IPP’s annu
Slide 5: We provide strong exposure to the growing Turkish electricity market
We provide strong exposure to the growing Turkish electricity market 1 Strong Electricity Demand Growth (1) 2 Increasing per Capita Consumption (2) 500 TWh High CAGR – High Demand: 7.3% MWh/pa 450 431 Demand Scenario 9 400 8 350 Low 7 255 362 Demand 300 Scenario 6 250 CAGR – Low Demand: 5.0% CAGR: 5
Slide 6: We have 19 assets under operation across Turkey
We have 19 assets under operation across Turkey 1 KIYIKÖY 27 MW 2 19 18 AYVACIK AYRES ÇORUM-İNCESU SAMSUN 5 MW 15 MW 131 MW AKKÖY 17 13 MW VAN 16 3 115 MW BALIKESİR KAPIDAĞ 24 MW 4 BALIKESIR ŞAMLI 114 MW Total 2,151 MW 5 MANISA KARAKURT 11 MW 6 MANISA 115 MW 15 SİİRT 24 MW 7 ANTALYA ŞIRNAK 14 1,150
Slide 7: Each of our assets has key specifications to fortify our strategy
Each of our assets has key specifications to fortify our strategy A D Baseload Natural Gas Fired PP – Antalya Wind Farms Located in a favorable wind corridor with high load factors One of the most efficient CCGT plants in Turkey, with 7 farms, with a total capacity a capacity of 1,150 MW with
Slide 8: We have a diversified pipeline of 9 projects adding 1,496 MW
We have a diversified pipeline of 9 projects adding 1,496 MW to our portfolio Current Installed Total Installed Pipeline Capacity Capacity 1,496 MW 3,647 MW 85 MW 1,053 MW Hydro 147 MW 175 MW Wind 38 MW Lignite 270 MW 288 MW Natural Gas 1,041 MW 270 MW 358 MW 2,151 MW 2.681 MW (1) 5 3 1 9 1 Hydro 2
Slide 9: Significant cost improvement with renewables and lignite fired PP pipeline
We target to create significant cost improvement with our renewables and lignite fired PP pipeline Targeted Capacity Increases in Renewables & Lignite (MW) MW 10% 12% 26% MWh (+) 62 MW Hydro 700 4000 (+) 38 MW Wind 600 62 3500 (+) 85 MW hydro 13 (+) 11 MW Wind (already oper.) 270 3000 500 +32% (+) 9
Slide 10: Evolution of Renewable & Local Resources Within Our Portfolio
Evolution of Renewable & Local Resources Within Our Portfolio New Renewable Capacities New Renewable Capacities New Local Resource Capacity A total of 88MW has been added to out (2014) (2015E) (2015E) total installed capacity in 2014, 64MW of which comes from renewables. 30 18 300 25 16 17 250 270 ►
Slide 11: Shifting bilateral mix towards more profitable commercial clients
At the same time, we are shifting bilateral mix towards more profitable commercial clients Increasing Contracted Volume Supported by Evolution of Eligibility Limit Affiliated Distribution Regions 67x # of Bilateral 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Customers (2) 245 61
Slide 12: Increased CCGT efficiencies and improved cost base
We have successfully increased efficiencies of our CCGT plants and managed to cut our OPEX to improve our cost base 1 Low Unit Capex 3 Improving Fuel Efficiency US$m/MW TL/MWh 56% 180 CCGT 0,4 54% 160 52% (1) Lignite 1,3 140 50% 48% Wind 1,4 120 46% 100 Hydro 2,2 44% 80 42% 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 2
Slide 13: Tailored strategy to create sound and secure profitability
Tailored strategy to create sound and secure profitability Evolution of Capacity and Sales Mix Total Contracted (1) Total Contracted (1) 14% 3,647 MW 23% Shifted strategy Fortifying baseload Lignite to become baseload strategy & building cost Hydro producer 77% effective pipeline Wind Total Spot (2)
Slide 14: The Sector
The Sector
Slide 15: Market Update - Prices
Market Update- PRICES Spot prices decreased by 6% YoY and 13% QoQ ►Slow down in the overall economy resulted in only 3% increase in electricty demand. ►Major base load power plants became operational by the last quarter of 2014 and therefore they were more than enough to meet the additional 3% deman
Slide 16: Market Update - Generation
Market Update- GENERATION Changes in market operations ►Following the incident on March 31st, where we experienced a major blackout through out Turkey, TEIAS has become more prudent in keeping spare capacity in the western part of Turkey as well. That resulted in intra-day market sales capability fo
Slide 17: Market Update - Regulations
Market Update- REGULATIONS Changes in market regulations and operations ►New regulations, which will be implemented by 1st of July, will allow «the bilateral end user sales companies» (perakende satış) to gain easy access to distribution companies’ clients. There are about 15,000 new clients in the
Slide 18: Aksa Enerji - Business Update
Aksa Enerji- Business Update Changes in market regulations and operations ►The OTC platform enables the IPPs to forecast energy prices so it has a very important role for all players for their capacity utilisation, production and price projections. ►We expect OTC to be merged with EPIAS in the long
Slide 19: Aksa Enerji - Bolu Göynük Update
Aksa Enerji- Bolu Göynük Update ►Delay in Bolu Göynük – The boiler has been fired with coal for 2 weeks. However, a technical problem related to coal transport system in the boiler is causing a delay. This is within the scope of the main equipment provider and is being solved at no extra cost to Aks
Slide 20: 2015 Guidance - Bolu/Göynük Lignite PP
2015 Guidance – Bolu/Göynük Lignite PP ► 2015 Production: 0.75 TWh ►2016 Production: 2.0 TWh ► 2015 EBITDA contribution: TRY 70mn ► 2016 EBITDA contribution: TRY180 mn 19
Slide 21: 2015 Guidance - Sector
2015 Guidance – Sector ►2015 installed capacity increase: 4,000-4,500 MW ►Electricity demand increase: 3% ►Electricity/Natural Gas prices: No change in 2015 ►Water levels: The recent rainfall and snow levels show that 2015 will be a better year in terms of water usage in HPPs. Thus HPP production cl
Slide 22: 1Q 2015
1Q 2015
Slide 23: 1Q 2015 Results - Strategy in 2014
1Q 2015 Results – Strategy in 2014 * PURCHASES FROM PRODUCTION SPOT MARKET AKSA TOPTAN BILATERAL AGREEMENTS AKSA ENERJI SPOT SALES In DAY BEFORE MARKET 22
Slide 24: 1Q 2015 Results - Strategy Change at Current Market Conditions
1Q 2015 Results – Strategy Change at Current Market Conditions PURCHASES FROM * SPOT MARKET (PTF prices) PRODUCTION AKSA TOPTAN BILATERAL AGREEMENTS SPOT SALES in AKSA ENERJI DAY BEFORE MARKET SPOT SALES in INTRA DAY MARKET 23
Slide 25: 1Q 2015 Results - Snap Shot
1Q 2015 Results - Snap Shot YoY * Adjusted Adjusted 2013 2014 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Change Q1 2014 Q1 2015 YoY Change Installed Capacity (MW) 2.052 2.140 2.066 2.151 85 MW 2.066 2.151 85 MW Sales Volume (GWh) 9.109 9.814 2.458 1.665 -32% 2.458 3.013 23% Capacity Utilization Rate 56% 59% 61% 39% -22pp 61%
Slide 26: 1Q 2015 Results - Adjusted
1Q 2015 Results - Adjusted Q1 2015 * Q1 2014 As reported Adjusted Adjusted Actual (with financial contract) (without financial contract) (consolidated under AKSEN) Net Sales (TL mn) 353 313 544 472 EBITDA (TL mn) 86 46 86 73 EBITDA Margin 24,5% 14,8% 15,9% 15,5% MW TL/MWh Bilateral Agreements (end u
Slide 27: Company Highlights - Cost Structure
Company Highlights - Cost Structure (TL) Cost Structure vs. Sales Price (1Q 2015) Improving Lower Cost Output % of TL/MWh 181 Renewables 19% 16% &Sourcing 320 3,013 GWh 280 Average Cost: 132 2,458 GWh 240 208 340 1.348 200 27 133 168 160 10 282 120 211 1.814 87 80 181 80 159 985 40 23 87 80 171 186
Slide 28: Company Highlights - Sales mix and prices
Company Highlights - Sales mix and prices (TL) Capacity Utilization 44% 59% 10 TWh 9.8 TWh 9 Balancing Market Sales Northern Cyprus to BSM 2.3 BSM 23% 8 Wholesale Bilateral 7 Retail Bilateral 6 4.2 TWh 5 4 3 Total 7.5 Contracted 77% 86% BSM 3.63.6 Contracted 2 Sales 1 14% Contracted 0.60.6 0 2010 20
Slide 29: Financial highlights 1Q 2015: Consolidated income statement
Financial highlights 1Q 2015 Consolidated income statement Net sales & EBITDA (TL mn) 472 EBITDA Margin 1.957 1Q14: 15.5% 1.786 353 1Q15: 24.5% 73 86 312 344 Net Sales EBITDA Net Sales EBITDA 2013 2014 1Q14 1Q15 Operating income & Net income (TL mn) 196 208 54 44 39 Operating Income -10 Net Income O
Slide 30: Net financial debt and repayment schedule
Financial highlights 1Q 2015 Net financial debt and repayment schedule Net financial debt (TL mn) 2.000 62% 65% 70% 61% 1.800 55% 55% 52% 1.874 60% 1.600 1.781 1.400 50% 1.200 1.306 40% 1.270 1.280 1.000 1.138 800 30% 600 20% 400 10% 200 - 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1Q15 6.0 4.2 4.0 4.2 5.2 5.2 Net
Slide 31: 2015 Guidance - Financials
2015 Guidance – Financials ►Sales: 12.7 TWh (70% bilateral and 30% BSM sales) ►Revenues: TRY 2.5 mn (adjusted) ►Average Aksa Price: TRY196. ►CAPEX: TRY 270-300mn ►EBITDA: TRY 420-430mn 30
Slide 32: Financial Highlights 1Q 2015
Financial Highlights 1Q 2015
Slide 33: Consolidated income statement
Consolidated income statement (TL mn) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 2014 1Q 2015 Net sales 911,9 1315,4 1840,6 1786,0 1957,4 472,1 353,4 Cost of sales -775,5 -1088,0 -1604,0 -1565,9 -1710,8 -423,5 -295,4 Gross profit 136,4 227,4 236,6 220,1 246,6 48,6 58,0 Gross profit margin 15% 17% 13% 12% 13% 10% 1
Slide 34: Consolidated balance sheet
Consolidated balance sheet (TL mn) Assets 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1Q 2014 1Q 2015 Cash and cash equivalents 78,3 110,5 40,6 22,3 34,2 127,6 79,1 Trade receivables net 113,0 261,5 245,9 142,3 88,7 115,0 23,8 Due from related parties and shareholders 607,9 360,0 593,9 0,0 4,4 0,0 0,0 Inventory 81,3 1
Slide 35: Consolidated statement of cash flows
Consolidated statement of cash flows (TLmn) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1Q 2014 1Q 2015 Net income (loss) before tax 84,7 -116,5 226,5 -156,1 26,6 -13,9 -113,1 Depreciation and amortisation 71,7 92,5 105,3 111,8 121,5 29,3 32,5 Other adjustments 14,7 231,2 -53,1 193,9 82,0 27,2 117,7 Change in w orking
Slide 36: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 37: Operating (Current)
Operating (Current) Power Plant License Owner Fuel Type Installed Capacity (MW) % Mardin-1 Aksa Energy Fuel-oil 32 Mardin-2 Rasa Elektrik Fuel-oil 33 Northern Cyprus Aksa Cyprus Fuel-oil 120 İdil (Şırnak) İdil İki Energy Fuel-oil 24 Siirt Siirt Akköy Fuel-oil 24 Total Fuel-Oil fired power plants 233
Slide 38: Ongoing Investments and Revised Licence Portfolio
Ongoing Investments and Revised Licence Portfolio Planned Acquisitions from Kazancı Holding Planned acquisition from Kazancı Power Plant Investment License Owner Fuel Type Additional Capacity (MW) Completion Year Holding: Datça Licenced Kazancı Holding Wind 12 2015 Datça 12 MW WPP licence 12 C
Slide 39: Turkish power market
Turkish power market Installed Capacity by Fuel Annual Installed Capacity Increases GW CAGR GW 23.2 80 8.8% 18 69.5 70 16 64.0 57.1 14 11.5 60 52.9 52% 40% 27,7 12.6% 49.5 12 50 44.8 25,0 41.8 22,0 10 34% 19,0 6.8 40 17,2 8 14,2 15,4 4.7 4.3 30 6 3.4 11.7 2.9 6.7% 4 3.0 48% 20 39,0 41,8 1,8 32,3 33,
Slide 40: Contact - Investor Relations
Contact- Investor Relations Özlem McCann Head of IR Ozlem.McCann@aksa.com.tr +90 216 681 1053 Rüzgarlıbahçe Mah. Selvi Çıkmazı No:10 Kavacık Beykoz, Istanbul 39