Air Liquide SA · EURONEXT:AI
Air Liquide SA — Investor Day (December 2009)
59 slides from Air Liquide SA's investor day presentation, Dec 7, 2009
Slide 1: Investor Day: Renewables & H2 Energy
Investor Day Air Liquide, Energy & the Environment Renewables & H2 Energy December 7, 2009 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment
Slide 2: Air Liquide solar strategy update
Air Liquide solar strategy update Olivier Blachier Worldwide Business Director, Photovoltaic 42 40 Reference scenario 38 Gt of CO2* 36 34 32 Renewables 30 28 450 scenario 26 2007 2015 2020 2025 2030
Slide 3: Olivier Blachier
Olivier Blachier Worldwide Business Director, Photovoltaic, Air Liquide Olivier Blachier holds an MSc in Fluid Mechanics & Chemical Engineering from Grenoble Polytechnique National Institute, and a Business degree from Berkeley University. He started his career with BOC, where he held various Produc
Slide 4: The unlimited potential of solar energy
The unlimited potential of solar energy Energy availability : PV modules CO2 footprint 4h of Sun = WW yearly energy demand Very low, similar to wind energy Renewable Solar potential: Greenhouse gas comparisons 89,000 TW pa Life-cycle GHG emissions Base 100 Global Electricity yearly consumption: 15 T
Slide 5: Role of Gases (1/2)
Role of Gases (1/2) 1st Generation: Crystalline 2nd Generation: Silicon Thin Film 25 years history, 5 to 10 years history, 70% of capacity 10-15% of capacity On silicon wafers On glass (like TFT-LCD) Proven, mainstream Growing Low fab. capex / medium prod. High fab. capex / lower prod. costs costs H
Slide 6: Role of Gases (2/2)
Role of Gases (2/2) Industry Gas Value in the cost breakdown Gases & Precursors Crystalline 3% * are a key factor Thin Film 5-15% Flat screens 3% in Crystalline Semi conductors <1% & Thin Film *Excluding Silane for Poly-Si manufacturing Thin Film Solar Module Cost breakdown TCO Glass EVA precursors
Slide 7: Reaching grid parity - EU example
Reaching grid parity - EU example Grid parity is the date at which non-subsidised solar energy becomes competitive with grid prices 2020: grid parity 2009 approaching accessible market: 2012: grid parity grid parity 2,040 TWh accessible market: 2 100 300 TWh Total yearly Irradiation [kWh/m2y)] 1 900
Slide 8: PV module cost reduction to reach Grid Parity
PV module cost reduction to reach Grid Parity Grid parity depends on: Local energy mix Solar irradiation Technology used 3,50 Crystalline 3,00 Silicon thin film Module cost $/Wp 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 Grid parity - 2007 2010 2013 2016 Module cost 0.7 $/Wp = beginning of Grid Parity! 8 Air Liquide,
Slide 9: Global demand driven by public subsidies
Global demand driven by public subsidies New Feed-in-Tariffs (FiT) programs in Europe, USA and Asia Europe Capacity 2003: Germany FiT 2006: Spain FiT 2020e: 200 GWp 2007: New Italy & France FiT 2010: lower Germany FiT USA 2009: US incentives for Mftg & Installation; CA 33% Ren. target 2020 2020e: >5
Slide 10: Solar market "infancy" crisis
Solar market “infancy” crisis Global credit contraction Polysilicon, key raw material, over-supply led to prices plunging GW/y Polysilicon over-supply 60 GW Market demand 40 GW Solar Polysilicon production roadmap Massive capacity increase caused a sharp 20 GW drop in polysilicon price 0 GW 2008 200
Slide 11: Growth potential still there
Growth potential still there Spanish market collapse (from 2.5 GW installed in 2008 to 150 MW in 2009) Solar PV capacity two years ahead of demand GW/y 16 Supply vs demand Demand from: Rest of World 12 Japan Production capacity China US 8 Rest of Europe Italy 4 Spain Germany 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 20
Slide 12: Air Liquide solar offering & differentiation
Air Liquide solar offering & differentiation Dedicated global solar structure #1 positions in Europe, US, China, Japan, SE Asia Silane Leadership & Specialty Gases differentiation REC sourcing + Japan production = guaranteed access to majority of market 8 Electronic Materials Centers Total Materials
Slide 13: Air Liquide contribution towards grid parity
Air Liquide contribution towards grid parity Market demand €/KWh ALUX offer 0,3 Japan, Germany leadership Global solar BU 0,25 Dedicated R&D Scalability #1 in Silane production & sourcing New precursors 0,2 Analytical services Gas Optimization 0,15 & recovery Grid Power cost On-site Gases Gen Grid P
Slide 14: Air Liquide solar success
Air Liquide solar success AL Sales Growth From €5m to ~ €70m in less than 4 years Air Liquide Solar outgrew the Solar market itself! Thalheim - Germany Air Liquide Solar revenues Growth €m 80 60 R % CAG 40 >50 20 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 14 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health
Slide 15: Who might be the PV producers of tomorrow?
Who might be the PV producers of tomorrow? 1 Low Cost/Wp 3 manufacturers Those with access to end-market demand 2 & financing / or ties Vertically integrated to Utilities crystalline manufacturers with scale 4 5 Those with technology Those with Global Differentiation brand and reach Air Liquide is s
Slide 16: Air Liquide position with emerging leaders
Air Liquide position with emerging leaders Air Liquide supplies to 8 Air Liquide’s market shares of Top10 Manufacturers >50% share with crystalline leaders >40% share in Thin film technology 2009e Leading Manufacturers Sources: Photon International, Oct. 2009 16 Air Liquide, world leader in gases fo
Slide 17: Solar moving towards mainstream
Solar moving towards mainstream GW/y Market 160 Short-term consolidation PV Manufacturing 140 capacity forecast Approaching Grid Parity Scenarios: 120 Emergence of “Tomorrow’s leaders ” Base Globalization Moderate 100 Air Liquide Solar Advanced 80 Leadership position 60 Differentiated offer x10 R&D
Slide 18: Potential
Potential For Air Liquide REMINDER Precursors Total PV gases sales: SiH4 ~ €70m in 2009 Market By 2020: 6 to12% of European Electricity generated from Solar PV From 20 to 35+ GWp/year to be installed over next 10-years vs 11 GWp installed capacity today Implies multiplication by 10 of PV manufacturi
Slide 19: Second Generation Biofuels
Second Generation Biofuels François Venet Vice-President, E&C Lurgi, CEO Lurgi GmbH 42 40 Reference scenario 38 Gt of CO2* 36 Renewables 34 32 30 28 Stabilization scenario (450ppm) 26 2007 2015 2020 2025 2030
Slide 20: François Venet
François Venet Vice President, E&C Lurgi, C.E.O Lurgi GmbH Francois Venet received his Engineering Degrees from Ecole Polytechnique, Ecole des Ponts et Chaussées, and holds a degree from the College des Ingénieurs. Prior to joining the Air Liquide Group, he was Ingénieur des Ponts et Chaussées. Fran
Slide 21: Agenda
Agenda What is biomass? Technology map and drivers for Biofuels Status of 1st Generation Positioning vis-à-vis 2nd Generation Summary and conclusion 21 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment Investor Day – Paris, December 7, 2009
Slide 22: What is biomass?
What is biomass? Wood Corn stalks Wood-chips Wheat Straw Sugar beet Sugar cane Rape seed 22 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment Investor Day – Paris, December 7, 2009
Slide 23: Technology Map: Biofuels
Technology Map: Biofuels Feed stock Process Output Sugar / Starch crops Fermentation Ethanol 1st G (corn, cane, …) Vegetable Oils Trans esterification Bio Diesel Animal Fats Vegetable Oils 1.5 G Hydroprocessing Bio Diesel Animal Fats H2 2nd G Ligno Cellulosis Pyrolysis + Gasification Bio Diesel Non
Slide 24: Time scale of different biofuel generations
Time scale of different biofuel generations Time to market: Today + 5 years + 10 years Generation: 1stG & G1.5 2ndG 3rdG Stage: Industrial Demo Lab-scale Products: Bio-Diesel (Pyrolysis, Algae Bio-Ethanol Torrefaction) Lignocelluloses from starch + gasification Bio-Refinery Hydrogenation + synthesis
Slide 25: Main driver: regulatory blending obligations
Main driver: regulatory blending obligations 23% of CO2 emissions is due to transportation General uncertainty about the stability of blending obligations % of biofuel in transportation fuel Canada Europe EtOH: 5% in 2010 China BF: 5% Japan BD: 2% in 2012 BF 15% in 2020 BF: 10% in 2020 BD: 5% US Ind
Slide 26: CO2 savings from biofuels
CO2 savings from biofuels Index GHG emissions saving 100 No standardized CO2 assessment Up to 50% reduction methodology ca. 90%reduction “CO2 neutral” 50 1st G “Well to wheel” depends greatly on type of biomass used 2nd G 0 Implementation depends on Mineral oil Conventional Conventional Cellulose BT
Slide 27: From 1st to 2nd Generation biofuels
From 1st 2nd Generation biofuels 1st 2nd 2nd 3rd Technology: Low technology More sophisticated Exploratory algae, bio-chemical Driver: Highly dependent on Biomass potential Availability and legislative uncertainties location of feedstocks Distribution : Uncertain well to wheel Local pyrolysis and To
Slide 28: Decentralize production to optimize the supply chain of biomass
Decentralize production to optimize the supply chain of biomass Biomass reduction Final transformation close to production site BTL Biomass 25-75 km Regional 250-500 km Central syngas Location product site intermediate plant & fuel production site by truck by rail or barge Pyrolysis Gasification Pro
Slide 29: Driver for 2nd Generation: feedstock
Driver for 2nd Generation: feedstock Biomass potential for 2050 by region in million barrels per day oil equivalent CIS & Baltic States E. Europe North America W. Europe 38 Japan 2 East Asia 18 6 Middle East & N. Africa 1 10 1 South America South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 11 41 23 Oceania 2050 Worldwi
Slide 30: Converting biomass into 2nd G biofuel
Converting biomass into 2nd G biofuel BTL-production, Available Biomass* Mio. Tons/y Share of total Diesel Biomass available in MBDOE (Assumption utilization demand, % at 10%, efficiency conversion 40%) Western Europe ~ 6 ~ 10 ~3 US ~ 18 ~ 29 ~ 11 South America ~ 41 ~ 67 ~ 61 Total World ~ 170 ~ 278
Slide 31: 2nd G biofuel Bioliq: the thermo-chemical route
2nd G biofuel Bioliq®: “The thermo-chemical route” Focus: Pyrolysis and Gasification In Bioliq® at Karlsruhe Out High Biomass Fast Temp. Syngas Synthesis Chemicals Pyrolysis Gasifi- Cleaning step Synfuels (CCS option) cation O2 Rectisol Preferably Decentralized Centralized Synfuels Production from B
Slide 32: 2nd G biofuel demonstrator: Bio Rectisol + Fischer-Tropsch
2nd G biofuel demonstrator: “Bio Rectisol” + “Fischer-Tropsch” Focus: Gas cleaning and Synthesis In H2 option Out Biomass Biomass Syngas Fischer- Product Synfuels Gasification Cleaning Tropsch Synthesis upgrading + Compression (CCS option) O2 Rectisol Preferably Centralized Synfuels Production from
Slide 33: New players
New players Today: public funding Tomorrow Value Biomass Synfuel Pyrolysis Gasification Synthesis chain logistics Marketing Oil companies Technology provider together with “pulp and paper” Players “Big Paper” JV between “Big paper” and Oil companies Only a few players are integrated along the overal
Slide 34: Summary and conclusion
Summary and conclusion Biofuels will continue to be part of the energy mix Focus on 2ndG due to significant CO2 savings Be part of demonstrator units to build experience Deploy proprietary 2ndG process chain (BioLiq®) Leverage on an unique position based on proprietary technologies (proven and under
Slide 35: Potential
Potential For Air Liquide REMINDER O2 H2 E&C H2 capacity: > 1.3 M Nm3/h O2 capacity: 140,000 tpd E&C sales: ~ €1bn Market Depending on regulatory environment E&C 2nd Generation potential by 2020 2 to 3 demonstrator projects (2nd G): €100m to €200m each 5 to 10 industrial projects: €500m to €1bn each
Slide 36: Hydrogen Energy, stationary power and sustainable mobility
Hydrogen Energy, stationary power and sustainable mobility Dominique Bernal Director, Advanced Technologies Europe 42 40 Reference scenario 38 Gt of CO2* 36 Renewables 34 32 30 28 Stabilization scenario (450ppm) 26 2007 2015 2020 2025 2030
Slide 37: Dominique Bernal
Dominique Bernal Director Advanced Technologies Europe Dominique Bernal is a graduate of Ecole des Mines in Saint-Etienne, France. He joined the Air Liquide Group in 1986 in Engineering and Construction, holding successively commissioning, project management and international sales positions. In 200
Slide 38: What can hydrogen energy bring?
What can hydrogen energy bring? Hydrogen energy can offer new energy alternatives… …and can be produced from wide variety of sources including renewables 38 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment Investor Day – Paris, December 7, 2009
Slide 39: Global Innovation efforts
Global Innovation efforts EUROPE ~€1.2bn/year in public subsidies Focus: Transport ~€3.5bn/year from the private sector + Early markets Subsidies: ~€220m/an JAPAN Focus: Transport + Residential Subsidies: ~€300m/an CHINA CANADA Focus: Transport Focus: Fuel cells Subsidies: ~€40m/an Subsidies: ~€30m/
Slide 40: Major technological progress
Major technological progress Numerical modeling of fast filling Composite Storage Lab Test General Motors Kapuskasing Automotive fuel cell system cost latitude 49°North (projected to high volume manufacturing of 500,000 units/year) $/kW 300 275 250 200 150 107 Quick Connection 100 94 45 30 50 0 00 0
Slide 41: More than 40 years of experience in hydrogen
More than 40 years of experience in hydrogen Production Distribution Application 41 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment Investor Day – Paris, December 7, 2009
Slide 42: From R&D to demonstration projects
From R&D to demonstration projects R&D centers Advanced Technologies entities Demonstration projects Fuel Cells Air Liquide a global player in the hydrogen energy business 42 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment Investor Day – Paris, December 7, 2009
Slide 43: Eolhy: H2 production from renewables
Eolhy: H2 production from renewables France 2006-2009 Total budget: €2.2m (€1.1m Air Liquide) Funding from French ANR Air Liquide program coordinator Eolhy on Air Liquide test platform Grenoble - France Objectives: Base electricity supply and H2 production from renewables Electrolyzer Fuel cell syst
Slide 44: Hychain: H2 supply chain
Hychain: H2 supply chain Europe (France, Germany, Italy, Spain) 2006-2010 Total budget: €37m (€19 m Air Liquide) Funding from European Commission Air Liquide program coordinator Hychain demonstrators Germany Objectives: Large-scale deployment of small FC vehicles H2 homologation challenge Test of a
Slide 45: Horizon Hydrogen Energy (H2E)
Horizon Hydrogen Energy (H2E) Markets Technologies Supporting activities Regulations H2 supply chain Europe 2009-2015 Fuel cell systems Social acceptance Total budget: €190m (€123m Air Liquide) Funding from French Oseo Air Liquide program coordinator Objectives: Development of competitive solutions
Slide 46: Air Liquide: paving the way with early markets
Air Liquide: paving the way with early markets Movie shooting powered by Axane fuel cell Bouygues Telecom antenna Axane fuel cell Axane mobile fuel cell 46 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment Investor Day – Paris, December 7, 2009
Slide 47: First stationary demonstrations today
First stationary demonstrations today 5,000 stationary systems France - Bouygues Telecom 47 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment Investor Day – Paris, December 7, 2009
Slide 48: First mobile demonstrations today
First mobile demonstrations today 200 hydrogen filling stations in operation Shanghai - Challenge Bibendum 50 buses and 300 demonstration vehicles London - Fuel cell bus 1,000 forklifts US - Forklift Roadmap Daimler 48 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment Inves
Slide 49: Transport: limited efficiency of internal combustion
Transport: limited efficiency of internal combustion Today Efficiency: 25% Petroleum theoretical ceiling fuel dependency: Environmental 100% performances: limited improvement potential Internal combustion engine Hybrid vehicle Tomorrow Electric vehicles Battery powered Hydrogen & fuel cell powered 4
Slide 50: Fuel cell: how it works
Fuel cell: how it works Air (Oxygen) ZERO Emissions Only water Storage Fuel cell Hydrogen Water at the exhaust pipe 50 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment Investor Day – Paris, December 7, 2009
Slide 51: H2 energy: well to wheel benefit
H2 energy: well to wheel benefit CO2 emissions Fuel production Car Emissions Petrol 30 g/km 150 g/km 180 g/km Hydrogen 90 g/km ZERO Emissions 90 g/km CO2 emissions halved Sources: EUCAR-Concave 2007 51 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment Investor Day – Paris,
Slide 52: H2 energy: clean mobility
H2 energy: clean mobility CO2 emissions Fuel production Car Emissions 20 Petrol g/km 150 90 g/km g/km 110 g/km Hybrid technology Hydrogen 90 g/km ZERO Emissions « Green » Hydrogen Zero CO2 emissions 52 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment Investor Day – Paris,
Slide 53: Fuel cell and battery powered vehicles: complementarity
Fuel cell and battery powered vehicles: complementarity Battery 120 km Hydrogen Fuel Cell 120 km 380 km 500 km Extended autonomy 53 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment Investor Day – Paris, December 7, 2009
Slide 54: Fuel cell vehicles: hydrogen needs
Fuel cell vehicles: hydrogen needs 15,000 km/year For each 1 million vehicles (0.1% of the world car fleet) consumption of 1.5bn m3/y (equivalent to ca. 2 SMR) Progressive build up of a distribution infrastructure and convergence of H2 pricing towards gasoline pricing, including infrastructure inves
Slide 55: Air Liquide: paving the way with early markets
Air Liquide: paving the way with early markets Hychain utility vehicle powered Hychain fuel cell cargo bike by Axane fuel cell Airport loader powered by Axane fuel cell 55 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment Investor Day – Paris, December 7, 2009
Slide 56: British Columbia Transit: operational expertise
British Columbia Transit: operational expertise Canada (British Columbia) 2008-2013 Total budget: $89m ($21m Air Liquide) Funding from the Government of Canada and the Province of BC Whistler hydrogen facility Air Liquide provides refueling stations + H2 molecules 1st fuel cell bus delivered in Vanc
Slide 57: Air Liquide's ambition: be ready for 2015
Air Liquide’s ambition: be ready for 2015 Research & Technology Demonstrators First commercialization Development development Early markets 2015 57 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment Investor Day – Paris, December 7, 2009
Slide 58: Potential
Potential For Air Liquide REMINDER H2 Total H2 capacity: > 1.3 M Nm3/h Market Hydrogen requirements Hydrogen fuel cell technology Total applications and 80bn m3 hydrogen requirements = 9.1M Nm3/h 50 million (stationary + mobility) 1 to 2 million 2.5bn m3 = 0.3M Nm3/h Sources: AL estimates 2015 2020
Slide 59: Investor Day
Investor Day Air Liquide, Energy & the Environment Renewables & H2 Energy December 7, 2009 Air Liquide, world leader in gases for industry, health and the environment