Slide 1: Earnings Conference Call 4th Quarter 2013
Earnings Conference Call 4th Quarter 2013 February 6th, 2014
Slide 2: Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward-Looking Information
Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward-Looking Information This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The factors that could cause actual results to differ mat
Slide 3: 2013 In Review
2013 In Review • Utilities • Top quartile and best ever customer satisfaction index scores; top • 2013 adjusted operating results of quartile in SAIFI (outage frequency) $2.50/share(1) • ExGen • Strong balance sheet and free cash • Nuclear capacity factor over 94% flow metrics • Power dispatch match
Slide 4: Exelon Utilities Adjusted Operating EPS Contribution
Exelon Utilities Adjusted Operating EPS Contribution(1) Key Drivers – 4Q13 vs. 4Q12: BGE PECO ComEd BGE (+0.04): $0.31 $0.31 • Decreased storm costs: $0.02 $0.02 • Distribution revenue due to rate cases: $0.02 $0.06 $0.10 PECO (+0.02): • Decreased storm costs: $0.03 $0.12 • Income taxes: $(0.01) Com
Slide 5: ExGen Adjusted Operating EPS Contribution
ExGen Adjusted Operating EPS Contribution(1) $0.33 Key Drivers – 4Q13 vs. 4Q12 • Lower gross margin, primarily due to lower realized energy prices, partially offset by increased capacity pricing: $(0.11) $0.21 • Higher other expense, primarily due to lower realized NDT fund gains: $(0.02) • Lower O&
Slide 6: 2014 Adjusted Operating Earnings Guidance
2014 Adjusted Operating Earnings Guidance $2.50(1) $2.25 - $2.55(2) BGE $0.23 $0.20 - $0.30 BGE Key Year-Over-Year Drivers PECO $0.46 • Lower ExGen Total Gross Margin $0.40 - $0.50 PECO primarily due to lower energy prices, partially offset by higher capacity revenue: $(0.17) ComEd $0.49 • Higher Co
Slide 7: Exelon Consolidated Cash Flow: 2014 Expected vs 2013 Actuals
Exelon Consolidated Cash Flow: 2014 Expected vs 2013 Actuals Projected Sources & Uses(6) Key Messages(6) • Adjusted Cash from Operations(2) is projected to be $6,100M vs (7) 2014 Projected Sources and Uses of Cash 2013A of $6,025M for a $75M variance. This variance is Exelon ( 5) Exelon ( 5) primari
Slide 8: Adjusted O&M Forecast
Adjusted O&M Forecast(2) • 2014 forecast of $6.6B(1) − $550M run-rate Constellation merger synergies in 2014 − Excludes costs to achieve which are considered non-operating • Expect CAGR of ~(0.6%) for 2014-2016 $6,475(1) $6,575(1) (in $M) BGE $625 $675 BGE Key Year-over-Year Drivers(2) $700 PECO PEC
Slide 9: Exelon Utility 2014-16 Adjusted Operating EPS Guidance
Exelon Utility 2014-16 Adjusted Operating EPS Guidance • $15 billion of investment from 2014-2018 to upgrade aging infrastructure and invest in new technologies to achieve rate base growth of 5-7% • Long-term target of 10% ROE at each utility by 2017 • Managing the regulatory environment to achieve
Slide 10: Exelon Generation: Gross Margin Update
Exelon Generation: Gross Margin Update December 31, 2013 Change from Sept 30, 2013(7) Gross Margin Category ($M) (1) 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 Open Gross Margin(3) (including South, West, Canada hedged gross 5,850 5,700 5,650 250 (50) (50) margin) Mark-to-Market of Hedges(3,4) 750 500 250 (150)
Slide 11: Hedging Activity and Market Fundamentals
Hedging Activity and Market Fundamentals Fundamental View vs. Market - 2015 2015: Rotating into a Large Heat Rate Strategy 2015-Actual $60 Fundamental View NiHub 70% 2015-Ratable Market NiHub $55 60% 2015-Actual (excl NG hedges) Generation Hedged (1) Fundamental View PJMW $50 50% Market PJMW $45 40%
Slide 12: ExGen's Financial Flexibility
ExGen’s Financial Flexibility Balance Sheet Focus Free Cash Flow Benefits Resulting 2014 Metrics Robust Balance Sheet Pension Improvements Key Cash Metrics(1) Strong cash flow metrics to Rising interest rate environment 2013 FFO/Debt(3) = 37% maintain investment grade results in lower pension
Slide 13: Long-Term EPS Growth Potential
Long-Term EPS Growth Potential comes from controllable actions, opportunistic investments and market upside Controllable Market/Advocacy Upside • Continued investments in utilities for stable • Power market upside – manage our earnings and growth portfolio in line with our fundamental • Aggressive c
Slide 14: Exelon Generation Disclosures
Exelon Generation Disclosures December 31, 2013 13 2013 4Q Earnings Release Slides
Slide 15: Portfolio Management Strategy
Portfolio Management Strategy Strategic Policy Alignment Three-Year Ratable Hedging Bull / Bear Program •Aligns hedging program with •Ensure stability in near-term cash •Ability to exercise fundamental financial policies and financial flows and earnings market views to create value within outlook •D
Slide 16: Components of Gross Margin Categories
Components of Gross Margin Categories Gross margin from Gross margin linked to power production and sales other business activities Open Gross MtM of “Power” New “Non Power” “Non Power” Margin Hedges(2) Business Executed New Business •Generation Gross •Mark to Market •Retail, Wholesale •Retail, Whol
Slide 17: ExGen Disclosures
ExGen Disclosures Gross Margin Category ($M) (1) 2014 2015 2016 Open Gross Margin (including South, West & Canada hedged GM)(3) 5,850 5,700 5,650 Mark to Market of Hedges(3,4) 750 500 250 Power New Business / To Go 350 650 700 Non-Power Margins Executed 100 50 50 Non-Power New Business / To Go(5) 30
Slide 18: ExGen Disclosures
ExGen Disclosures Generation and Hedges 2014 2015 2016 Exp. Gen (GWh) (1) 208,800 201,700 203,600 Midwest 96,900 96,600 97,600 Mid-Atlantic (2) 74,200 70,200 71,400 ERCOT 17,100 18,700 19,200 New York (2) 12,700 9,300 9,300 New England 7,900 6,900 6,100 % of Expected Generation Hedged (3) 91-94% 62-
Slide 19: ExGen Hedged Gross Margin Sensitivities
ExGen Hedged Gross Margin Sensitivities Gross Margin Sensitivities (With Existing Hedges) (1, 2) 2014 2015 2016 Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/Mmbtu) + $1/Mmbtu $110 $305 $515 - $1/Mmbtu $(40) $(235) $(480) NiHub ATC Energy Price + $5/MWh $30 $290 $430 - $5/MWh $(30) $(285) $(430) PJM-W ATC Energy Price +
Slide 20: Exelon Generation Hedged Gross Margin Upside/Risk
Exelon Generation Hedged Gross Margin Upside/Risk $9,000 $8,550 $8,500 Approximate Gross Margin ($Million)(1,2,3) $8,000 $7,950 $7,650 $7,500 $7,000 $7,050 $6,500 $6,650 $6,000 $5,500 $5,700 $5,000 2014 2015 2016 (1) Represents an approximate range of expected gross margin, taking into account hedge
Slide 21: Illustrative Example of Modeling Exelon Generation 2015 Gross Margin
Illustrative Example of Modeling Exelon Generation 2015 Gross Margin South, Mid- New Row Item Midwest ERCOT New York West & Atlantic England Canada (A) Start with fleet-wide open gross margin $5.70 billion (B) Expected Generation (TWh) 96.6 70.2 18.7 9.3 6.9 (C) Hedge % (assuming mid-point of range)
Slide 22: Additional Disclosures
Additional Disclosures 21 2013 4Q Earnings Release Slides
Slide 23: ComEd Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2013 to 2014
ComEd Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2013 to 2014 $0.10 Distribution $0.01 Transmission ($0.01) Weather/Volume ($0.00) ($0.01) ($0.02) $0.50 - $0.60 $0.01 $0.09 $0.49 $0.02 Pension/OPEB ($0.02) Inflation 2013(1) RNF(2) O&M(3) Depreciation & Interest Other 2014(4)(5) Note: Drivers add up to mid-point
Slide 24: PECO Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2013 to 2014
PECO Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2013 to 2014 $0.46 $0.01 $0.40 - $0.50 ($0.03) $0.01 ($0.02) Storm Costs ($0.01) Inflation $0.01 Smart Meter Return 2013(1) RNF(2) O&M(3) Other 2014(4)(5) Note: Drivers add up to mid-point of 2014 adjusted operating EPS range. (1) Refer to the Earnings Release Atta
Slide 25: BGE Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2013 to 2014
BGE Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2013 to 2014 $0.05 Pricing/Mix ($0.01) Other RNF ($0.03) $0.20 - $0.30 $0.05 ($0.01) $0.01 $0.23 ($0.01) Storm Costs ($0.01) Inflation $0.01 Interest ($0.01) Other O&M 2013(1) RNF(2) O&M(3) Depreciation Other 2014(4)(5) & Amortization Note: Drivers add up to mid-poi
Slide 26: ExGen Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2013 to 2014
ExGen Adjusted Operating EPS Bridge 2013 to 2014 ($0.17) Generation Gross Margin primarily due to lower pricing ($0.02) Primarily AVSR and other $1.40 assets placed in service $0.17 $1.10 - $1.30 $0.03 $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 Interest $0.01 Other $0.09 Merger synergies $0.02 Pension/OPEB ($0.06) Inflation
Slide 27: Additional 2014 ExGen and CENG Modeling
Additional 2014 ExGen and CENG Modeling P&L Item 2014 Estimate (1) ExGen Model Inputs (2) O&M $4,050M (3) Taxes Other Than Income (TOTI) $300M Depreciation & Amortization(4) $800M Interest Expense $325M CENG Model Inputs (at ownership) (1)(5) Gross Margin Included in ExGen Disclosures O&M/TOTI $400M
Slide 28: Exelon Utilities Weather-Normalized Load
Exelon Utilities Weather-Normalized Load All Customers Residential Small C&I Large C&I ComEd PECO BGE 1.5% 1.5% 2.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% -0.2% -0.3% -0.2% 0.0% -0.5% -0.4% -0.6% -0.4% -0.6% -0.3% -1.1% -1.2% -2.5% 2013 2014E 2013 2014E 2013 2014E Chicago GMP 2.3% Philadelphia GMP
Slide 29: ComEd April 2013 Distribution Formula Rate Updated Filing
ComEd April 2013 Distribution Formula Rate Updated Filing The 2013 distribution formula rate filing establishes the net revenue requirement used to set the rates that will take effect in January 2014 after the ICC’s review. The filing was updated to reflect the impact of Senate Bill 9. There are two
Slide 30: BGE Rate Case
BGE Rate Case Rate Case Order Electric Gas Docket # 9326 Test Year August 2012 – July 2013 Common Equity Ratio 51.1% Authorized Returns ROE: 9.75%; ROR: 7.49% ROE: 9.6%; ROR: 7.41% Rate Base $2.8B $1.0B Revenue Requirement Increase $33.6M $12.5M Distribution Price Increase as % of 1.7% 1.1% overall
Slide 31: Appendix: Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures
Appendix Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures 30 2013 4Q Earnings Release Slides
Slide 32: 4Q GAAP EPS Reconciliation
4Q GAAP EPS Reconciliation Three Months Ended December 31, 2012 ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon 2012 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings Per Share $0.33 $0.19 $0.09 $0.02 $0.00 $0.64 Mark-to-market impact of economic hedging activities 0.17 - - - (0.03) 0.14 Unrealized gains related to nuclear
Slide 33: Full Year GAAP EPS Reconciliation
Full Year GAAP EPS Reconciliation Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2012 ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon 2012 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings (Loss) Per Share $1.89 $0.47 $0.47 $0.06 $(0.04) $2.85 Mark-to-market impact of economic hedging activities 0.38 - - - 0.00 0.38 Unrealized gains rela
Slide 34: GAAP to Operating Adjustments
GAAP to Operating Adjustments • Exelon’s 2014-16 adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings excludes the earnings effects of the following: − Mark-to-market adjustments from economic hedging activities − Unrealized gains and losses from NDT fund investments to the extent not offset by contractual accoun
Slide 35: Adjusted O&M Reconciliations to GAAP
Adjusted O&M Reconciliations to GAAP 2013 Adjusted O&M Reconciliation (in $M)(4) ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon GAAP O&M $4,500 $1,400 $725 $625 $(0) $7,250 Impacts associated with Sale or Retirement of Generating - - - - - - Stations Certain costs incurred associated with the integration of $(10
Slide 36: ExGen Total Gross Margin Reconciliation to GAAP
ExGen Total Gross Margin Reconciliation to GAAP Total Gross Margin Reconciliation (in $M)(5) 2014 2015 2016 Revenue Net of Purchased Power and Fuel Expense(1)(6) $7,650 $7,650 $7,400 Non-cash amortization of intangible assets, net, related to $50 - - commodity contracts recorded at fair value at the
Slide 37: 2013 FFO/Debt and 2014 ExGen Free Cash Flow Reconciliations to GAAP
2013 ExGen/HoldCo FFO/Debt and 2014 ExGen Free Cash Flow Reconciliations to GAAP (1) (1) FFO Calculation ($M) Adjusted Debt Calculation ($M) 2014 Free Cash Flow (1) GAAP Operating Income $1,675 Long-Term Debt (including Calculation ($M) $7,725 current maturities) Adjusted Cash from Depreciation & Am
Slide 38: 2014 ExGen Adjusted EBITDA – Base CapEx Reconciliation to GAAP
2014 ExGen Adjusted EBITDA – Base CapEx Reconciliation to GAAP Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted Operating Net Income(1) $950M - $1,125M Depreciation & Amortization(2) $800M Interest Expense(2) $325M Taxes/Other(3) $275M - $400M Adjusted EBITDA(6) $2,350M - $2,650M Base CapEx Total Capital Expenditures(4) $2
Slide 39: Change to Format of Exelon Generation Disclosures
Appendix Change to Format of Exelon Generation Disclosures 8-K issued December 9, 2013 All numbers as of September 30, 2013 38 2013 4Q Earnings Release Slides
Slide 40: Change to Format of Exelon Generation Disclosures – Definitions
Change to Format of Exelon Generation Disclosures – Gross Margin, O&M and Depreciation & Amortization Definitions • Direct costs incurred to generate revenues (“Cost of Sales”) for certain Constellation businesses (Energy Efficiency, BGE Home and Upstream) have been included in O&M or Depreciation &
Slide 41: Impacted Components of Gross Margin Categories
Impacted Components of Gross Margin Categories Gross margin from Gross margin linked to power production and sales other business activities Open Gross MtM of “Power” New “Non Power” “Non Power” Margin Hedges(2) Business Executed New Business •Generation Gross •Mark to Market •Retail, Wholesale •Ret
Slide 42: ExGen Disclosures – Previous and Revised Presentations
ExGen Disclosures – Previous and Revised Presentations Gross Margin Category ($M) (1,2) 2013 2014 2015 2016 (as presented in EEI presentation slide 37) Open Gross Margin (including South, West & Canada hedged GM) (3) $5,600 $5,650 $5,800 $5,800 Mark to Market of Hedges (3,4) $1,700 $900 $450 $250 Po
Slide 43: Additional 2013 ExGen and CENG Modeling – Previous and Revised Presentations
Additional 2013 ExGen and CENG Modeling – Previous and Revised Presentations P&L Item 2013 Estimate (1) ExGen Model Inputs EEI Slide 13 presentation Revised presentation (2) O&M $4,275M $4,075M (3) Taxes Other Than Income (TOTI) $300M No change Depreciation & Amortization(4) $825M $775M Interest Exp