2020 Bulkers Ltd. · OSL:2020
2020 Bulkers — Pareto Energy Conference 2022
12 slides from 2020 Bulkers's conference presentation, Sep 15, 2022
Slide 1: 2020 Bulkers Ltd. Pareto Energy Conference 2022
2020 Bulkers Ltd. Pareto Energy Conference 2022 15 September 2022 |
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation (the "Presentation") has been prepared by 2020 Bulkers Ltd. (the "Company") with data as of September 15, 2022 solely for information purposes. The Presentation does not constitute any recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise transact with any securities issued by the Co
Slide 3: 2020 Bulkers Investment Case
2020 Bulkers Investment Case Fleet of 8 Newcastlemax average age 2.5 years most modern fleet among listed peers Capesize demand has grown of 4.8% Ships fixed on index-linked TCs pa since 1990… ~35% premium to a standard …Record low orderbook of 6% with capesize + scrubber benefit limited yard capaci
Slide 4: Our dividend potential is significant
Our dividend potential is significant September - December 2022 Indicative dividend capacity (annual run-rate)1) 50 47 45 40 40 34 35 NOK per share 30 28 25 21 20 15 15 10 9 5 2 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 Standard Capesize rate 2 vessels fixed at an average of US$31,600
Slide 5: Our dividend potential is significant
Our dividend potential is significant 2023 Indicative dividend capacity (annual run-rate)1) 60 54 50 46 40 38 NOK per share 29 30 21 20 12 10 4 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 -5 -10 Standard Capesize rate 8 vessels on index linked time charters with scrubber profit share 20
Slide 6: Market review
Market review 90 000 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 02.01.2015 02.02.2015 02.03.2015 02.04.2015 02.05.2015 02.06.2015 02.07.2015 02.08.2015 02.09.2015 02.10.2015 02.11.2015 02.12.2015 2015-21 max-min range 2022 2021 2015-21 average • Unseasonally weak market so far during
Slide 7: % of capesize fleet in port, 7dma
% of capesize fleet in port, 7dma 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Source: Shipping Intelligence Network Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 % of Capesize fleet in port, 7dma Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Pre-co
Slide 8: Capesize demand is marginally up compared to 2021
Capesize demand is marginally up compared to 2021 Trading volumes up YoY… …but distances are down significantly Resulting in only 1% ton-mile growth YoY 3.9 6200 2.2 6100 2.15 3.7 2.1 6000 3.5 2.05 5900 2 3.3 1.95 5800 1.9 3.1 5700 1.85 2.9 1.8 5600 1.75 2.7 5500 1.7 20 39 58 77 96 1 115 134 153 172
Slide 9: Attractive supply / demand dynamics
Attractive supply / demand dynamics Historical volume growth of 4.8% pa Historically low orderbook Demand likely to outstrip supply 1600 120% 6.0 % 5.0 % 1400 100% 4.0 % 3.0 % 1200 80% 2.0 % 1000 Million tons 1.0 % 60% 0.0 % 800 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24
Slide 10: Signs of increased infrastructure investments in China
Signs of increased infrastructure investments in China China Local Government Special Bond Issuance China fixed asset investment 4000 50% 3 406 40% 3500 30% 3000 20% 2 570 YoY Change 2500 10% Billion CNY 0% 2000 -10% 1500 -20% 1 014 -30% 1000 -40% okt.20 jun.21 okt.21 jun.22 jun.19 okt.19 jun.20 feb
Slide 11: Vale still expects an increase in production for the balance of 2022
Vale still expects an increase in production for the balance of 2022 Vale production vs Capesize rates 45 000 105.0 Q3-Q4 TO 40 000 VOLUMES 100.0 NEEDED TO 95.0 Vale production million tons 35 000 MEET VALE GUIDANCE 90.0 30 000 Capesize rate 85.0 25 000 80.0 20 000 75.0 15 000 70.0 10 000 65.0 5 000
Slide 12: 2020 Bulkers Summary
2020 Bulkers Summary Fleet of 8 Newcastlemax vessels, average age 2.5 years - most modern fleet among listed peers 2 ships fixed at avg US$31,600/day + scrubber benefit for the balance of the year FFA curve implies TCE for a scrubber fitted Newcastlemax of ~US$23,000 per day for Oct-Dec 2022 2022 CB