Mosaic Company (the) · NYSE:MOS

Mosaic Company (the) — The Mosaic Company — Q4 2024 Earnings Presentation

23 slides from Mosaic Company (the)'s earnings presentation, Feb 28, 2025

  1. Slide 1: Fourth Quarter 2024 Results

    The Mosaic Company Fourth Quarter 2024 Results February 27, 2025

  2. Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures

    Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may include, but are not limited to, statements about share repurchases, future transactions or s

  3. Slide 3: Fourth Quarter 2024 Performance

    Fourth Quarter 2024 Performance CONSOLIDATED OPERATING NET ADJUSTED (1) REVENUES EARNINGS INCOME EBITDA $2,816M $100M $169M $594M PHOSPHATE POTASH MOSAIC FERTILIZANTES Net Operating Adjusted(1) Net Operating Adjusted(1) Net Operating Adjusted(1) Revenues Earnings EBITDA Revenues Earnings EBITDA Reve

  4. Slide 4: Full Year 2024 Performance

    Full Year 2024 Performance CONSOLIDATED OPERATING NET ADJUSTED (1) REVENUES EARNINGS INCOME EBITDA $11,123M $622M $175M $2,202M PHOSPHATE POTASH MOSAIC FERTILIZANTES Net Operating Adjusted(1) Net Operating Adjusted(1) Net Operating Adjusted(1) Revenues Earnings EBITDA Revenues Earnings EBITDA Revenu

  5. Slide 5: Potash Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA Bridge

    Potash Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA(1) Bridge Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Variance - $(110) Q1 2024 Q1 2023 Variance Sales Volumes (mt in millions) 2.239 2.577 (0.338) MOP Selling Price (FOB Mine) ($/mt) $ 199 $ 243 $ (44) $322 $(49) MOP cash costs of production ($/mt) $ 73 $ 66 $ 7 $(107) $ in millions $ in millions Q4

  6. Slide 6: Phosphate Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA Bridge

    Phosphate Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA(1) Bridge $82 Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Variance Sales Volumes (mt in millions) 1.622 1.582 0.040 $90 $(6) $(7) $341 DAP Selling Price (FOB Plant) ($/mt) $ 593 $ 552 $ 41 Production volume (mt in millions) 1.569 1.479 0.090 FL Cash Rock Cost of production ($/mt) $ 52 $ 56 $ (4) $

  7. Slide 7: Mosaic Fertilizantes Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA Bridge

    Mosaic Fertilizantes Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA(1) Bridge Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Variance Sales Volumes (mt in millions) 2.240 2.158 0.082 $(29) Average Finished Product Selling Price ($/mt) $ 486 $ 552 $ (66) ($8) $7 MAP Price (delivered price to third party) ($/mt) $ 632 $ 580 $ 52 $111 $3 ($31) Cash Rock Cost

  8. Slide 8: Q1 2025 and 2025 Assumptions

    Q1 2025 and 2025 Assumptions First Quarter Modeling Assumptions ($ in millions) Q1 2025 Phosphate Sales Volumes (million tonnes) 1.5 - 1.7 DAP Prices (FOB Plant) $595 - $615 Potash Sales Volumes (million tonnes) 2.0 - 2.2 MOP Prices (FOB Mine) $200 - $220 Full Year Modeling Assumptions ($ in million

  9. Slide 9: 2025 Sensitivities

    2025 Sensitivities Pricing & Sensitivities FY 2024 Sensitivity Average DAP fob plant ($/tonne)(1) $585 $10 price = $79 million adjusted EBITDA Average MOP fob mine ($/tonne)(2) $222 $10 price = $60 million adjusted EBITDA BRL/USD(3) 5.39 Unhedged: $0.10 = $10 million adjusted EBITDA (1) Approximatel

  10. Slide 10: Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures

    Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Consolidated Earnings (in millions) Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Consolidated net earnings (loss) attributable to Mosaic $169 $365 Less: Consolidated interest expense, net (47) (35) Plus: Consolidated depreciation, depletion and amortization 283 257 Plus: Accretion expense 31

  11. Slide 11: Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures

    Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Potash Earnings (in millions) Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Operating earnings (loss) $123 $222 Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 93 89 Plus: Accretion expense 2 3 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) (185) 41 Plus: Other Income (Expense) 1 (2) Plus: Notable items 17

  12. Slide 12: Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures

    Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Phosphate Earnings (in millions) Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Operating earnings (loss) $44 $21 Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 143 124 Plus: Accretion expense 25 19 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) (4) (1) Plus: Other income (expense) 517 (9) Less: Earnings f

  13. Slide 13: Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures

    Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Mosaic Fertilizantes Earnings (in millions) Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Operating earnings (loss) $79 $50 Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 40 41 Plus: Accretion expense 4 5 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) (84) 32 Plus: Other income (expense) (2) (1) Less: Ear

  14. Slide 14: Market Highlights

    Market Highlights

  15. Slide 15: U.S. grain and oilseeds stock to use ratios are tightening

    U.S. grain and oilseeds stock to use ratios are tightening. Total Grain and Oilseeds Stocks-to-Use Corn and Soybeans Stocks-to-Use 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24F 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24F World (less China) U.S. World (le

  16. Slide 16: Grower sentiment and farm income are also improving

    Grower sentiment and farm income are also improving. Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer Bil $ U.S. Farm Sector Net Cash Income (Base Index: 100 = October 2015 to March 2016) Gov't Payments Market 175 250 Historical Avg. (Oct-15-Jan-25) Current Conditions Future Conditions 200 150 Purdue/CME Ag Economy

  17. Slide 17: Potash shipments expected to set a record high

    Potash shipments are expected to set a record high despite the impacts to supply from some key producers. Prices are rising. MMT MOP Prices Global MOP Shipments $/MT Published Spot Prices 80 72 - 74 600 c&f Brazil 75 550 c&f SE Asia delivered Cornbelt 500 70 fob NOLA 450 65 400 60 350 55 300 50 250

  18. Slide 18: Potash production forecasts are being revised down

    Potash production forecasts are being revised down. Historical Current Forecast Previous Forecast MMT Belarus MMT China MMT Russia 14 9 18 12 8 16 7 14 10 6 12 8 5 10 6 4 8 3 6 4 2 4 2 1 2 0 0 0 Peak Avg 22 23 24E 25F Peak Avg 22 23 24E 25F Peak Avg 22 23 24E 25F (2015-2021) (2015-2021) (2015-2021)

  19. Slide 19: Normalizing trade with Belarus and Russia unlikely to add meaningfully to supply

    It appears unlikely that normalizing trade with Belarus and Russia would add meaningfully to global P or K supply. MMT Ammonia Exports MMT DAP+MAP Exports MMT MOP Exports 5 5 25 Russia Russia Russia Belarus 4 4 20 3 3 15 2 2 10 1 1 5 0 0 0 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24E 25F 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2

  20. Slide 20: Global phosphate shipments constrained by supply in 2024

    Global phosphate shipments constrained by supply in 2024. Pent-up demand in India expected to be the growth driver for 2025. Stripping margin remains elevated. MMT Global Phosphate Shipments $/MT Benchmark DAP Stripping Margin DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP Calculated from Published Weekly Spot Prices 80 700 74 -

  21. Slide 21: Rising domestic fertilizer and LFP demand reduces China phosphate exports

    Rising domestic fertilizer and LFP demand reduces China phosphate availability for exports. MMT China Phosphate1 Domestic Uses MMT China Phosphate1 Exports 25 14 Fertilizer LFP (DAP-equivalent) 12 20 10 15 8 6 10 4 5 2 0 0 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24E 25F 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25F Rising f

  22. Slide 22: Global Phosphate Inventory remains below historical average

    Global Phosphate Inventory remains below historical average. Global Phosphate Inventories Index1 175 150 125 100 75 50 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 1. Estimated end-December inventories in China (DAP/MAP producers), Brazil (DAP/MAP/TSP/NPS), India (DAP), Pakistan (DAP) and the U.

  23. Slide 23: ©2025 The Mosaic Company

    ©2025 The Mosaic Company

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