Suncor Energy Inc. · TSX:SU
Suncor Energy — Q1 2024 Earnings Presentation
26 slides from Suncor Energy's earnings presentation, May 7, 2024
Slide 1: Investor Information Q1 2024
SUNCOR ENERGY Investor Information Q1 2024 Published May 7, 2024 SUNCOR ENERGY
Slide 2: Suncor's value proposition
Suncor’s value proposition Long-life, Regional and Operational Disciplined competitively vertical reliability investment & advantaged integration cost assets management Deliver superior long-term shareholder value SUNCOR ENERGY 2
Slide 3: Suncor key statistics
Suncor key statistics Market capitalization Q1 2024 $64B Net debt to AFFO Q1 2024 TTM 1.0x Oil sands reserve life index 2023 26 yrs Upgrading capacity 556 mbpd Refining capacity 466 mbpd Production to Market Q1 YTD 835 mbpd Refinery utilization Q1 YTD 98% AFFO Q1 YTD $3.2B Capital expenditures1 Q1 Y
Slide 4: Strong cash returns & resilient balance sheet
Strong cash returns & resilient balance sheet Strong track record of cash returns Manageable debt maturity profile4 Suncor Peer average1 Cumulative 15% 15% $40B$40B 5 $4.3 $2.8 C$ billion $2.5 2.5 10% 10% $1.7 Cumulative cash returns Cumulative cash returns Cash yield2 0 2025-29 2030-34 2035-39 2040
Slide 5: Disciplined capital allocation
Disciplined capital allocation1 O R D E R O F P R I O R I T Y Annual AFFO Allocation Net Debt (incl. ~$3.8B cap leases) Sustaining Economic Share Buyback / Net Debt Reduction Dividend3 ($ billion) Capital2 Capital2 (annualized %) 12 – 15 50 / 50 ~$2.9 ~$3.5 $2.18/ share 9 – 12 billion 75 / 25 billio
Slide 6: Physical integration to maximize value of every barrel
Physical integration to maximize value of every barrel ~26 year Oil Sands Deep regional Reserve Life Index Oil Sands integration ~25 mmbbl storage Western Canada Brent (E&P) Brent (E&P) ~15 mmbbl storage Eastern Canada Gasoline National wholesale Diesel & & retail network Jet ~75% Value Bitumen upli
Slide 7: No exploration risk and ~7 Bboe of 2P reserves
No exploration risk and ~7 Bboe of 2P reserves Production Mix1 Decline Reservoir Recovery (2024E) rate risk factor E&P ~15% decline Mining Very low Very low Very high Oil Sands Operations Syncrude ~0% mining decline In Situ Low Low High ~0% decline & ~12% In Situ decline Fort Hills Offshore Medium M
Slide 8: Integrated footprint of oil sands assets
Integrated footprint of oil sands assets Strategy – maximize margins & keep upgraders full (90% utilization) • Optionality from multiple oil sands assets (mining & in situ) • All sites are connected by pipeline: • Firebag & MacKay River – Base Plant • Syncrude – Base Plant • Fort Hills – Base Plant
Slide 9: Upstream oil sands operations
Upstream oil sands operations Suncor has a proven track record of improving operational reliability Upgrading and Mining Assets In Situ Assets (2019 - 2023) (2014 - 2023) • Base Plant upgrader utilization consistently ~90% • Combined average of >90% utilization over the past 10 years with path to 95
Slide 10: #1 Downstream business in the industry
#1 Downstream business in the industry $50 $10 Winning formula $9 ~50% average $45 incremental margin1 $8 $40 • Low-cost crude feedstocks vs. WTI due to 5-2-2-1 vs. 3-2-1 Benchmark cracks US$/bbl proximity to upstream production $7 $35 $6 $B CAD $30 • Facilities tailored for higher diesel $5 product
Slide 11: Industry leading refinery utilization & profitability
Industry leading refinery utilization & profitability Operational execution Industry leading profitability Suncor US average1 Cdn average1 2019 - 2023 average $25 100 $20 95 Average annual utilization (%) Refining EBITDA / bbl2 (CAD) $15 Peer average 90 $10 85 $5 80 $0 75 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20
Slide 12: Our GHG emissions objective – net zero by 2050
Our GHG emissions objective – net zero by 20501,2 GHG reduction opportunities to 2030 10 Mt per year reduction by 20301,2 Base business Contributing to Suncor’s net-zero goal Value chain Reducing our customer’s footprint • Reduce our own emissions through energy efficiency, fuel switching and CCUS C
Slide 13: Sustainability leadership
Sustainability leadership 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 First First Set four Set long- First climate risk report Completed Canada’s Invested in CCUS environment renewable long-term term carbon first coast-to-coast EV technology with report energy environmental and socia
Slide 14: 2024 capital budget
2024 capital budget1 ECONOMIC $millions Project examples: INVESTMENT CAPITAL2 Exploration & Production ~700 West White Rose and SeaRose Investing in projects to improve efficiency, In Situ well pads ~350 – 370 Firebag and MacKay River well pads flexibility & resilience Other economic investment ~1,8
Slide 15: 2024 capital & production guidance
2024 capital & production guidance1 CAPITAL EXPENDITURES PRODUCTION & OPERATING COSTS Capital2 Economic Production Cash Operating Costs ($ millions) Investment3 (boepd) ($/bbl) Oil Sands 4,300 – 4,400 45% Oil Sands Operations 430,000 – 460,000 $28.00 – $31.00 E&P 700 100% Fort Hills 155,000 – 165,00
Slide 16: Appendix
SUNCOR ENERGY Appendix 16 202003-038
Slide 17: Oil sands energy sources
Oil sands energy sources *All values net to Suncor Mining & upgrading Base - Millenium & North Steepbank Base Plant Upgraders 2023 bitumen production: 250 kbpd 2023 SCO & diesel production: 315 kbpd Suncor WI 100% 350 kbpd capacity 850 mmbbls 2P reserves1 Suncor WI 100% Syncrude – Mildred Lake & Aur
Slide 18: Offshore with ~250 million barrels of 2P reserves
Offshore with ~250 million barrels of 2P reserves1 *All values net to Suncor Hibernia Terra Nova ExxonMobil operated Suncor Energy operated Suncor WI 20% Suncor WI 48% 2023 production: 14 mbbls/d 30 mmboe 2P reserves1 57 mmboe 2P reserves1 White Rose Hebron Cenovus operated ExxonMobil operated Sunco
Slide 19: Refining advantage
Refining advantage ~40% equity feedstock & ~100% inland crude Feedstock advantages2 Product advantages2 Edmonton Directly connected to Oil Sands Large market reach with international export 1 production; ability to process multiple capability via tidewater; in-line product blending 146 mbpd crude ty
Slide 20: Refined product markets
Refined product markets ~555 mbpd Product sales in 20231 Edmonton ~20% refinery services region from BC to Ontario Canadian consumer fuel Montreal and Sarnia have a local market2 market reach over 22mm people5 ~325 Export capability to Wholesale Cardlock US Westcoast & Asia Locations3 ~1,585 Commerc
Slide 21: Suncor 5-2-2-1 Index
Suncor 5-2-2-1 Index To help investors and analysts model Suncor’s Refining and Marketing (R&M) business, we have designed an indicative 5-2-2-1 gross margin based on publicly available pricing data. This is a single value that incorporates refining, product supply and rack forward businesses, but e
Slide 22: R&M gross margin calculation example – Q1 2019
R&M gross margin calculation example – Q1 2019 FIFO1 impact calculation example – Q1 2019 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Dec-18 49.00 70% 34.30 Dec-19 58.15 70% 40.71 WTI ($US/bbl) 60% 30.79 60% 34.32 Nov-18 56.70 30% 17.01 Nov-19 55.00 30% 16.50 Dec-18 6.00 70% 4.20 Dec-19 48.20 70% 33.74 WCS ($US/bbl) Nov-18 11.
Slide 23: First-in, first-out (FIFO) inventory gains and losses
First-in, first-out (FIFO) inventory gains and losses Crude & products inventory & timing 45 The amount of time between purchase of feedstock to sale of refined product has direct correlation to FIFO impact Edmonton Commerce City Montreal / Sarnia Average (~ 1.5 months) Average number of days Crude
Slide 24: Advisories
Advisories Forward-Looking Statements – Forward-Looking Statements – This Although Suncor believes that the expectations represented by such cash operating costs are defined and reconciled, as applicable, in the presentation contains certain “forward-looking statements” within forward-looking statem
Slide 25: Slide Notes
Slide Notes Slide 3 -------------------------------------------------------------- the methodologies used to calculate GHG emissions. The interim Slide 17 -------------------------------------------------------------- (1) Excludes $74 million of capitalized interest on debt. target of 10 megatonnes
Slide 26: Visit us at the Investor Centre on suncor.com
Visit us at the Investor Centre on suncor.com invest@suncor.com SUNCOR ENERGY 26