Infratil Limited · NZX:IFT
Infratil — TrustPower — Investor Presentation (February 2009)
17 slides from Infratil's investor presentation, February 2009
Slide 1: Presentation to Infratil Investor Briefing
Presentation to Infratil Investor Briefing February 2009
Slide 2: Financial Performance
Financial Performance 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* = EBITDAF @NPAT * = Based on market consensus
Slide 3: Competitor Benchmarking
Competitor Benchmarking EBITDA Return on Adjusted Capital Contact Genesis Meridian MRP TPW 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 • National has publicly announced it is reviewing SOE performance an
Slide 4: Trading Update
Trading Update Source: Commit Free • Demand is down from a year ago but currently not significant. • Tiwai Point Smelter running at reduced capacity but Rio Tinto advises that once transformers fixed it will return to full capacity. • Tiwai’s reduced demand is circa 3 – 4 GWh per day.
Slide 5: Trading Update: Competition Alive and Well
Trading Update Competition Alive and Well Source: Commit Free • Significant increases in switching above long term trend have occurred during last winter’s dry and following Contact Energy’s AGM.
Slide 6: NZ Supply Demand Balance
NZ Supply Demand Balance Change in National Demand/Supply Balance 1500 Rotokawa 2 and Stratford Peaking 1000 West Wind, Kawerau 500 0 GWh 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -500 -1000 e3p, Te Rere Hau, Manapouri -1500 -2000 Change in Demand/Supply Balance • Change in National Demand /
Slide 7: How do economic downturns impact the Electricity Market?
How do economic downturns impact the Electricity Market? Electricity Demand and Real GDP 45,000,000 140000 40,000,000 120000 35,000,000 100000 30,000,000 Annual GWh $M (95/96) 25,000,000 80000 20,000,000 60000 15,000,000 40000 10,000,000 20000 5,000,000 0 0 Source: MED Residential Industrial Commerc
Slide 8: How is TrustPower placed to cope with a prolonged economic downturn?
How is TrustPower placed to cope with a prolonged economic downturn? • TrustPower has around NZD 250m of undrawn committed facilities with only $100m due for refinance within next 12 months from total committed facilities of NZD 1.0 billion equivalent • Noticeable increase in >90 day receivables whi
Slide 9: Regulatory Update
Regulatory Update Amendments to RMA Proposed • No surprises • Should improve consenting processes •Little benefit to current TrustPower consents as some complete and others well advanced Emissions Trading Scheme • Under review – Select Committee expected to report by end of March • National has conf
Slide 10: Investment Landscape NZ
Investment Landscape NZ Key Issues Demand • Prolonged economic recession could see flat demand growth which may lead to investment deferral Government support for • National has made no comment with respect to previous renewable generation government’s long term renewable generation target • Changes
Slide 11: Investment Landscape NZ cont.
Investment Landscape NZ cont. Key Issues Wind Turbine Supply • Global forward orders declining for suppliers but US Availability and Terms infrastructure package supportive of wind development RMA • Proposed changes should assist streamlining of consenting processes but too late to make a difference
Slide 12: LRMC of New Generation at Current Exchange Rates
LRMC of New Generation at Current Exchange Rates North Island Base Load Equivalent Costs NZ $/MWh $US exchange rate=0.54 CO2 Tax=$25/t HVDC price=$25/kW WACC=9.0% $120 $110 Backup and loss factor $100 CO2 25$/t $90 $80 Fuel $70 $60 HVDC Charge $50 O&M $40 $30 Capital $20 $10 $0 ASC Coal CCGT - gas C
Slide 13: Currency is critical to new wind farm investment
Currency is critical to new wind farm investment Tararua Stage 3 Committed • Cost of Tararua Stage 3 would have been more than 60m greater based on current exchange rates
Slide 14: TrustPower NZ Generation Development Update
TrustPower NZ Generation Development Update Consenting Completed Project Capacity Likely Strategy Lead Time to commit once MW consenting complete Mahinerangi Wind 200 30 MW able to be embedded. Then 3-6 Months incremental build in stages subject to economics Kaiwera Downs Wind 240 Build in two stage
Slide 15: Australian Investment Landscape
Australian Investment Landscape Key Issues Government support for • Rudd Government still appears committed to increased renewable generation renewable generation targets although recent request for Parliamentary enquiry into proposed ETS may be a sign resolve is wavering Carbon Pricing • Industry l
Slide 16: TrustPower Australian Generation Development Update
TrustPower Australian Generation Development Update Planning Consent Capacity Likely Strategy MW Snowtown Wind 235 Incremental generation able to be built under existing planning consent Additional Transmission Investment required for further stages Myponga 40 Awaiting confirmation of planning conse
Slide 17: Summary
Summary • TrustPower has continued to outperform competitors • We are well placed for more challenging economic environment Strong balance sheet Major capex projects completed Limited counterparty risk • Good generation development options with flexibility on timing • Expectation of more modes