Alpek, S.a.b. De C.v. Class A · BMV:ALPEK/A
Alpek, S.a.b. De C.v. Class A — Alpek Sab De Cv Ord — Q4 2022 Earnings Presentation
27 slides from Alpek, S.a.b. De C.v. Class A's earnings presentation, Feb 15, 2023
Slide 1: Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Webcast
FOURTH QUARTER 2022 EARNINGS WEBCAST
Slide 2: Today's Speakers
TODAY’S SPEAKERS JOSÉ DE JESÚS VALDEZ JOSÉ CARLOS PONS ANTÓN FERNÁNDEZ CEO CFO IRO 3
Slide 3: Jorge P. Young Cerecedo
JORGE P. YOUNG CERECEDO Years of experience: 30+ Relevant Roles: • President at Alpek Polyester • President of PET and Staple Fibers • Executive VP At Alpek Polyester – PET Resins • VP Planning & Finance at Alpek Education: • MBA from Wharton School of Business • B.S. in Chemical Engineering from IT
Slide 4: Topics for Today's Webcast
TOPICS FOR TODAY’S WEBCAST I. ESG Progress II. Financial Performance III. 2023 Guidance 5
Slide 5: 2022 Review
Z0ZZ REVIEVY,
Slide 6: Ocean Freight Prices
OCEAN FREIGHT PRICES Starting to decline to previous levels Asia – Americas Spot Ocean Freight Rate (US$K/Container) 12 US EC 11 US WC 10 US SA 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2020 2021 2022 7
Slide 7: Alpek Made Improvements in ESG During 2022
ALPEK MADE IMPROVEMENTS IN ESG DURING 2022 SBTi CO2 Scope 1 & 2 Emissions B Rating in (Million Tons) Climate Change -19% 2.6 2.1 Top decile in 1.9 Chemicals Industry 25th percentile in Chemicals Industry 2019 2022 2030 Target2 SBTi base1 (1) Figures do not include emissions from recently acquired OC
Slide 8: Integrated PET Reference Margins
INTEGRATED PET REFERENCE MARGINS Asian Margins | Px / MEG to PET (US$/Ton) China -16% 431 420 410 400 382 356 330 338 306 310 318 • Asian reference margins averaged 266 275 US$338/Ton (-16% QoQ) 250 242 323 223 260 328 307 302 262 184 227 249 228 243 PET • Asia-China spread increased to 196 159 192
Slide 9: Polypropylene Reference Margins
POLYPROPYLENE REFERENCE MARGINS NA Polypropylene Margins | PP to PGP (cpp) 52 47 47 -32% 39 38 • PP reference margins decreased to 34 32 23 cpp (-32% QoQ) from added 25 capacity and weakening demand 22 22 23 21 19 16 17 15 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2020 2021 2022 10
Slide 10: EPS Reference Margins
EPS REFERENCE MARGINS NA EPS Margin | EPS to Styrene -15% (cpp) 75 64 56 49 43 41 • EPS reference margins decreased 32 32 33 31 35 to 64 cpp (-15% QoQ) in 4Q22 26 27 26 25 • EPS reference margins remain at 18 high levels 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2020 2021 2022 11
Slide 11: 4Q22 Financial Highlights
4Q22 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS • Annual volume record reaching 5.07 million tons • Quarterly Comparable EBITDA of US$270 million mainly due to normalizing reference margins for all products • Record high Annual Comparable EBITDA of US$1,396 million (+45% YoY) • Recovered US$3.5 million in guaranteed debt
Slide 12: Volume Evolution
VOLUME EVOLUTION Annual & Quarterly Sales Volume (Ktons) +6% -10% P&C 1,359 Polyester 5,065 4,798 1,216 1,260 1,230 • Overall quarterly volume of 1.23 1,172 246 million tons (-10% QoQ) 966 250 1,002 254 217 240 • Polyester volume of 1.01 million tons (-9% QoQ) amid typical seasonality effects, PET d
Slide 13: Feedstock Costs
FEEDSTOCK COSTS Crude Oil & Paraxylene NA Propylene Contract Price NA Px Brent Contract US$/Bbl US$/Ton cpp 140 2,400 90 Crude Oil (Brent) 82 2,200 80 Px 120 -11% 2,000 73 • Brent crude oil price decreased to 70 67 -8% 1,800 66 63 61 an average US$88 dollars per barrel 100 1,600 60 -31% (-11% QoQ) 1
Slide 14: EBITDA Breakdown
EBITDA BREAKDOWN 4Q22 EBITDA (US$M) -36% • Comparable EBITDA of US$270 424 4 million (-36% QoQ) • Reported EBITDA of US$186 million 158 (-39% QoQ) 300 2 270 • Combined inventory adjustment & -27 carry-forward effect of US-$84 138 120 -57 186 million 0 • Polyester Comparable EBITDA of 261 106 P&C US$
Slide 15: EBITDA Evolution
EBITDA EVOLUTION Annual & Quarterly Comparable EBITDA (US$M) +45% 1,455 507 456 -36% 1,145 • Record Annual Comparable EBITDA 306 of US$1,396 million (+45% YoY) 269 • Record Annual Reported EBITDA of 1,396 186 US$1,455 million up (+27% YoY) 424 369 from Inventory gains & positive 962 333 300 270 Carr
Slide 16: Free Cash Flow Generation
FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION Quarterly Free Cash Flow (US$M) 1,860 11 1,805 247 186 • NWC reduced by US$129 million as raw material prices began to 51 decline 129 46 38 • CAPEX totaled US$51 million mainly allocated towards maintenance and a portion for CCP construction • Positive Free Cash Flow of US$
Slide 17: Net Debt & Leverage
NET DEBT & LEVERAGE Net Debt (US$M) LTM EBITDA (US$M) Net Debt/EBITDA (Times) 1,860 1,776 1,805 1,426 1,396 1,236 1,310 1,092 1,225 962 1,512 1,539 1,455 1.3 1.2 1.2 1,277 1.1 1.0 1,145 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 Comp. EBITDA 18
Slide 18: 2023 Guidance & Key Assumptions
2023 GUIDANCE & KEY ASSUMPTIONS 2023 Change 2022 Guidance (% vs. ‘22) Crude Oil US$/Bbl 90 100 (10) MARKET Asia PTA/PET Margin US$/Ton 320 392 (18) Volume Ktons 4,900 5,065 (3) Comparable EBITDA1 US$M 920 1,396 (34) FINANCIALS Net Sales US$M 9,170 10,555 (13) CAPEX US$M 445 862 (48) 19 (1) Excludes
Slide 19: Q&A
Q &A JOSÉ DE JESÚS VALDEZ JORGE YOUNG JOSÉ CARLOS PONS CEO INCOMING CEO CFO 20
Slide 20: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 21: Extraordinary Effects Breakdown
EXTRAORDINARY EFFECTS BREAKDOWN 2022 2021 Delta US$M 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YTD 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YTD 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YTD Reported EBITDA 456 507 306 186 1,455 324 273 279 269 1,145 132 234 27 (83) 310 Inventory (63) (80) 70 57 (17) (63) (18) (22) 11 (92) - (63) 92 45 74 Adjustment Carry-forward (66) (73) 46 27 (66) (58
Slide 22: Relevant References | Crude Oil
RELEVANT REFERENCES | CRUDE OIL Prices declined due to tighter macroeconomic environment Brent Crude Oil Price US$/Bbl 140 120 100 100 80 71 70 64 60 54 44 42 40 20 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23
Slide 23: Relevant References | Paraxylene
RELEVANT REFERENCES | PARAXYLENE Px prices decreased by 8%, in line with Crude Oil NA Px Contract Price (US$/Ton) 1,837 -8% 1,505 1,389 1,301 1,174 1,033 1,066 1,069 954 996 876 876 891 658 685 590 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2020 2021 2022 24
Slide 24: Relevant References | Propylene
RELEVANT REFERENCES | PROPYLENE Started to decline gradually as demand weakened NA Propylene Contract Price | PGP (cpp) 82 73 67 66 63 61 -31% 54 45 47 39 41 34 35 31 32 26 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2020 2021 2022 25
Slide 25: For Additional Information
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION Email: IR@alpek.com | Phone: +52 (818) 748-1146 ANTÓN • 17 Years at Alfa/Alpek FERNÁNDEZ • Alpek IRO / Corporate Finance / ESG Director since 2022 • Previously held roles as VP of Administration & Strategic Planning at Indelpro, Commercial IRO Technology Manager at Alpek P
Slide 26: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain, “forward-looking statements”. By their nature, forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The future results of Alpek
Slide 27: Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Webcast
FOURTH QUARTER 2022 EARNINGS WEBCAST