Swiss Re Ag · SIX:SREN
Swiss Re — Investor Presentation (November 2024)
21 slides from Swiss Re's investor presentation, Nov 19, 2024
Slide 1: Media Dialogue 2024: Global economic and insurance market outlook 2025/26
Media Dialogue 2024 Global economic and insurance market outlook 2025/26 19 November 2024
Slide 2: Jérôme Haegeli, Group Chief Economist
Jérôme Haegeli Group Chief Economist
Slide 3: Key letter and numbers
Key letter and numbers (in) Swiss Re 2
Slide 4: Global economic outlook: Growth in the shadow of (geo-)politics
Global economic outlook: Growth in the shadow of (geo-)politics with more macro volatility ahead Swiss Re Institute Consensus 2024 (F) 2025 (F) 2026 (F) 2010-2019 2025-2034 2024 (E) 2025 (F) ▪ Economic growth will diverge further: US outperformance Real GDP (% change) to continue, while Europe and C
Slide 5: Global primary insurance market outlook
Global primary insurance market outlook: High interest rates continue to support life savings business, while non-life premium growth is expected to decelerate Non-life insurance premium growth decelerating from 2024 price- driven boost Premium growth in real terms by line • Price moderation will im
Slide 6: Theme 1: New US administration raises upside pressure on inflation and rates
Theme 1: New US administration and a Republican Congress raise upside pressure on inflation and interest rates, while growth upside is limited Key variables before Trump, after Trump’s first term, and today Jan 2017 Jan 2021 Today Key changes in macro backdrop GDP 2.2% 4.2% 2.8% Economy is closer to
Slide 7: Theme 2: Upside risks to inflation and interest rates in various scenarios
Theme 2: Upside risks to inflation and interest rates in various scenarios Key policy channels: Escalatory tariffs Full protectionism Full fiscal Trump admin prioritizes fiscal agenda, using 10% broad tariffs on world, while excl. close ➢ Trade policies allies (EU, CA, MX) with potential selective 6
Slide 8: Theme 3: Life insurance is turbocharged by the monetary policy turn
Theme 3: Life insurance is turbocharged by the monetary policy turn and surging dependency ratios supporting the annuity sales pivot United States: Individual annuity market developments US and UK dependency ratios, 1950-2040 y/y 1 300% 250 250% 200 200% 150 150% 100 100% 50 50% 0% 0 -50% -50 1Q22 2
Slide 9: Key takeaways
Key takeaways Still solid economic growth, but inflation progress could slow at the global level. Cross- country divergences will further widen, with less synchronization in inflation and central bank interest rate paths. Strong upside risks to long-dated bond yields Solid economic growth and struct
Slide 10: Paul Murray, CEO Life & Health Reinsurance
Paul Murray Chief Executive Officer Life & Health Reinsurance
Slide 11: Retirement savings gap could more than quadruple by 2050
Retirement savings gap for eight of the world's biggest economies was USD 106 trillion in 2022 and could more than quadruple by 2050 Retirement savings gap, in 2022 values, USD trillions ▪ Baby Boomers are retiring and must manage their retirement savings amassed over their working lives ▪ Interest
Slide 12: Life insurance premiums to increase by 55% by 2035
Life insurance premiums to increase by 55% by 2035 Global life Insurance Premiums, USD trillions ▪ Interest rates, despite some easing, are set to stay elevated for the medium term, underpinning 6 demand for life savings products USD 4.8 ▪ Real wage growth, ageing demographics and the 5 rise of the
Slide 13: Life expectancy continues to improve but has slowed
Life expectancy continues to improve but has slowed since 2010 Increasing life expectancy since the 1970s in select countries ▪ Historically, mortality improvements have 85 typically come in waves ▪ Mortality improvements have plateaued since Life expectancy (years) 2010, after advances in treating
Slide 14: Five years after the first COVID-19 case, we still have excess mortality
Five years after the first COVID-19 case, we still have excess mortality Scenario forecasts for US and UK, general populations excess ▪ COVID-19 is still driving excess mortality mortality, 2033 both directly and indirectly ▪ Pessimistic scenario: Excess mortality to remain elevated until 2033 in th
Slide 15: Antimicrobial resistance – the silent pandemic
Antimicrobial resistance – the silent pandemic – has the potential to adversely impact life expectancy improvements Global map of all-age, AMR-associated death rates per 100 000 ▪ The accelerated spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has been attributed to excessive and improper use of antibiotic
Slide 16: Promising technologies for future medical advancements
But we have reason to be optimistic: Promising technologies for future medical advancements ▪ Broad consensus is that further Immunotherapy life expectancy gains are mRNA Alzheimer’s/ Obesity drugs coming vaccines dementia drugs ▪ Advanced technologies will AI medicine Anti-microbial provide opportu
Slide 17: GLP-1 drugs are emerging as a weight loss game changer
GLP-1 drugs are emerging as a weight loss game changer ▪ Obesity rates have nearly tripled globally since 1975, with over 890 million adult and 160 million children affected ▪ Obesity increases the risk of hypertension, insulin resistance, heart disease, type 2 diabetes and certain cancers ▪ New wei
Slide 18: Q&A
(iii) Swiss Re O&A
Slide 19: Get your publication today and subscribe to our research
Get your publication today and subscribe to our research Sigma publications Expertise Publications Economic Insights Economic Outlook • Market information for • Expert analysis of specific • Key findings on macro • Monthly newsletters on global managers and specialist in risk topics in regional deve
Slide 20: Thank you
Thank you Contact us if you have any further questions. Follow us media_relations@swissre.com +41 43 285 71 71
Slide 21: Legal notice
Legal notice ©2024 Swiss Re. All rights reserved. You may use this presentation for private or internal purposes but note that any copyright or other proprietary notices must not be removed. You are not permitted to create any modifications or derivative works of this presentation, or to use it for