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Recruit — Recruit Holdings Webinar (December 2023)
59 slides from Recruit's conference presentation, Dec 15, 2023
Slide 1: A Labor Market Overview
A Labor Market Overview Insights from the Indeed Hiring Lab Svenja Gudell, PhD Chief Economist
Slide 2: www.hiringlab.org
www.hiringlab.org Place screenshot here Place screenshot here Global trends Labor market updates On-the-go alerts Australia, Canada, France, Keep up to date with Subscribe for regular Germany, Ireland, Japan, monthly/quarterly overviews, email updates and UK, US. request a presentation to your newsl
Slide 3: Key Takeaways
Key Takeaways ● Demand for new hires continues to moderate, but still robust. Job postings remain strong, even if some areas have pulled back dramatically. ● Long-term, structural factors should hold labor force participation down, but cyclical strength has brought in many prime-age workers. ● The G
Slide 4: Demand for new workers
Demand for new workers
Slide 5: US job openings outnumber unemployed workers
US job openings outnumber unemployed workers Openings per unemployed worker, US, Jan 2019 - Oct 2023 — 3moavg == Ratio 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 fe, Source: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, Current Population Survey indeed
Slide 6: US job postings have continued to moderate
US job postings have continued to moderate Index, 100 = Feb 1, 2020, United States, data through Dec 1, 2023 = Total postings == New postings 160 120 80 40 2021 2022 2023 fe, Source: Indeed Job Postings Index. Note: New job postings are those on Indeed for seven days or less. indeed
Slide 7: US postings have dropped most in traditional 'office job' sectors
US postings have dropped most in traditional ‘office job’ sectors Indeed Job Postings Index, 100 = Feb 1, 2020, United States, through Dec 1, 2023 = Banking & Finance == HumanResources = Marketing == Software Development 200 150 100 50 2021 2022 2023 fe, Source: Indeed Job Postings Index indeed
Slide 8: US postings are holding up better in many 'in-person' sectors
US postings are holding up better in many ‘in-person’ sectors Indeed Job Postings Index, 100 = Feb 1, 2020, United States, through Dec 1, 2023 = Childcare == Food Preparation & Service == Nursing = Retail 150 100 50 2021 2022 2023 fe, Source: Indeed Job Postings Index indeed
Slide 9: Tracking US job openings and postings
Tracking US job openings and postings Index, Jan 31, 2020 - Dec 1, 2023 == Indeed Job Postings Index == JOLTS Job Openings 150 125 100 75 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Source: Indeed Job Postings Index, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. “ndeed Note: Index is set to 100 = Feb 1, 2020 for Indeed and
Slide 10: Labor supply and retention
Labor supply and retention
Slide 11: The prime-age labor force participation rate
The prime-age labor force participation rate Share of US population aged 25 - 54 in the labor force, Jan 1998 - Nov 2023 Monthly series == Three-month moving average Average rate in 1999: 84.1% 84% 83% 82% 81% 80% 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 fe, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics indeed 11
Slide 12: Gender differences in US labor force participation rates
Gender differences in US labor force participation rates Labor force participation rate, Index (100 = Feb 2020), Feb 2020 - Nov 2023 101 == Men, ages 25-54 == Women, ages 25-54 100 99 98 97 96 2021 2022 2023 fe Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics indeed 12
Slide 13: Foreign-born workers are leading employment growth
Foreign-born workers are leading employment growth Foreign-born share of total US employment, 12 month average, Jan 2016 - Nov 2023 19% 18% 17% 16% 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 fe Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics indeed 13
Slide 14: An aging population will eventually pull down the US labor force participation rate
An aging population will eventually pull down the US labor force participation rate Labor force participation rate, 2018 - 2030 BB current data Ml Projections 63% 62% 61% 60% 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Source: Author's calculations using US Bureau of Labor Statistics data and Congressional B
Slide 15: The US quits rate is back at its pre-pandemic level
The US quits rate is back at its pre-pandemic level Quits as % of employment, Jan 2019 - Oct 2023 = 3moavg — Quits rate 3.0% The dashed line is 2019's average 2.0% 1.0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 fe Source: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey indeed 15
Slide 16: Wage growth and inflation
Wage growth and inflation
Slide 17: US posted wages are slowing considerably
US posted wages are slowing considerably Year-over-year growth in posted wages, Jan 2019 - Nov 2023 == Wage growth y/y (3mo avg) Wage growth y/y 10% 9.3% 8% 6% 5% 4% 2.7% 2% 0% 2020 2022 2024 fe, Source: Indeed Wage Tracker indeed 17
Slide 18: US posted wage growth has led job switcher wage growth
US posted wage growth has led job switcher wage growth Year-over-year growth, 3 mo moving average, Mar 2019 - Nov 2023 == Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker - Job Switchers == Indeed Wage Tracker 10% 8% 5% 2% 0% 2020 2022 2024 “indeed Source: Indeed, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in ee 18
Slide 19: US posted wages are growing faster than prices
US posted wages are growing faster than prices Year-over-year growth, Jan 2019 — Nov 2023 == Indeed Wage Tracker = Inflation 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% 2020 2022 2024 “indeed Source: Indeed Wage Tracker, Consumer Price Index in ee 19
Slide 20: Signing bonuses have flattened but wage growth continues to slow
Signing bonuses have flattened but wage growth continues to slow Share of US postings advertising signing bonuses and US Indeed Wage Tracker growth Mar 2019 to Oct 2023 == Indeed Wage Tracker (Index) == Signing bonus share (Index) 300 200 100 Mar 2019 Mar 2020 Mar 2021 Mar 2022 Mar 2023 fe, Indeed.
Slide 21: Soft landing?
Soft landing?
Slide 22: Inflation-adjusted Personal Consumption Expenditures
Inflation-adjusted Personal Consumption Expenditures US, Index, Fourth Quarter 2019 = 100, Jan 2019 - Oct 2023 == Goods == Services 120 110 100 90 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 “indeed Source: Calculations using Bureau of Economic Analysis data in ee 22
Slide 23: US layoffs remain low by historical standards
US layoffs remain low by historical standards Layoffs and discharges rate, Jan 2019 - Oct 2023 1.8% Spike during initial COVID shock 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% Lowest layoff rate prior to pandemic 1.0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ‘indeed Source: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. in ee 23
Slide 24: US inflation is trending downward
US inflation is trending downward Six month annualized growth, Jan 2019 - Oct 2023 == Core Consumer Price Index == Core Personal Consumption Expenditures 6% 4% 3.2% 2.5% 2% 0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 “indeed Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Bureau of Economic Analysis in ee 24
Slide 25: Global Trends
Global Trends
Slide 26: Job postings continue to moderate
Job postings continue to moderate % change in job postings since Feb 1, 2020, seasonally adjusted, to Dec 1, 2023 = Australia == Canada == Germany = UK = US 250 200 150 100 50 Feb 2020 Aug 2020 Feb 2021 Aug 2021 Feb 2022 Aug 2022 Feb 2023 Aug 2023 Source: Indeed “indeed 26
Slide 27: Employment outlook stronger than business sentiment
Employment outlook stronger than business sentiment Economic sentiment and employment expectations, selected EU countries Index (long-term average = 100) = France = Germany = Italy = Spain Economic sentiment Employment expectations 120 110 100 90 80 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Slide 28: Hiring challenges persist
Hiring challenges persist Share of companies reporting that labour shortages are limiting production (data to Q3 2023) = DE = —S = FR = IT = NL 60% 51% 43% 40% 37% 20% 20% 19% 0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: European Commission Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Bu
Slide 29: Wage growth slows further
Wage growth slows further Year-on-year % change in posted wages to Nov 2023 === EuroArea == UK == US 8% 6.7% 5% 4.0% 3.7% 2% 0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: Indeed Wage Tracker (github.com/hiring-lab/indeed-wage-tracker) The data are monthly median year-on-year growth rates in advertised wages a
Slide 30: Foreign jobseekers' interest has rebounded
Foreign jobseekers’ interest has rebounded Foreign searches as a share of all searches Jan 2017 to Nov 2023, 3-month moving average, not seasonally adjusted == EU-27 = UK = Japan = Australia = Canada = US 1 : Launch of post-Brexit : ‘ } irenigration system i 17.8%) 6% H ' ' f 1 15% ' ' ' ' WHO decla
Slide 31: Japanese population expected to decline but foreign population to increase
120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Source: N. Japanese population expected to decline but foreign population to increase Future population projection (thousands), 2020 to 2070 IB Foreign Resident Citizen Aged 65+ Citizen Aged 15-64 [J Citizen Aged 0-14 10,884 | sey (7.271) 2020 2030 2040
Slide 32: Senior employment continues to increase, Japan
Senior employment continues to increase, Japan Senior employment rate by age cohort(%) = 65to69 = 70to74 = over75 50% 40% 30% i" anne 20% 10% == = 0% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 fe, Source: MHLW 'Labor Force Survey' indeed 32
Slide 33: Note on survey form changes
Note: Due to changes in the survey form, the methods for determining the number of people who wish to change jobs and the percentage of people who wish to change jobs are different before 2012 and after 2013. 33
Slide 34: Generative AI
Generative AI
Slide 35: Gen AI growth is international
Gen AI growth is international Generative Al jobs as a share (%) of all job postings 0.25 0.20 —Canada —Germany 0.15 —Spain —France —UK —lreland 0.10 —US 0.05 0.00 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: Indeed Data to October 2023 “ndeed 35
Slide 36: What jobs will be impacted by GenAI?
What jobs will be impacted by GenAI? Two stage research: 1) First, we looked at how well GenAI performs different skills 2) Second, we considered how much different jobs (collection of skills) are exposed to GenAI Poor Fair Good Excellent 36
Slide 37: Less than 20% of Jobs face a high potential exposure to GenAI
Less than 20% of Jobs face a high potential exposure to GenAl Job Postings on Indeed by GenAI Exposure Share, United States, Aug '22 - Jul '23 high exposure 19.8 % moderate exposure low exposure 0% 25% 50% Source: Indeed. High: GenAl can perform at least 80% of skills at a 'good' or ‘excellent’ leve
Slide 38: Jobs in Germany Face the Highest Potential Exposure to GenAI
Jobs in Germany Face the Highest Potential Exposure to GenAI Job Postings on Indeed by average GenAl Exposure Share, Jan 01 - Nov 17, 2023 Australia Canada high exposure PARA horervosre REM Gl moderate exposure 56 % moderate exposure , )% 50% Germany UK low exposure 15 % low exposure | 27% 0% 25% 50
Slide 39: Assessing GenAI's Proficiency in Skills
Assessing GenAlI's Proficiency in Skills Evaluation of Skills in Indeed Job Postings, United States, Aug '22 - Jul ‘23 i Poor Mi Fair Ml Good MM Excellent Driving Beauty & Wellness Personal Care & Home Health Nursing Childcare Food Preparation & Service Veterinary Construction Cleaning & Sanitation
Slide 40: AI at Work Report Series
AI at Work Report Series www.hiringlab.org Global trends Labor market updates On-the-go alerts Australia, Canada, France, Keep up to date with Subscribe for regular Germany, Ireland, Japan, monthly/quarterly overviews, email updates and UK, US. request a presentation to your newsletters about our te
Slide 41: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 42: Sectors with the sharpest increases in job postings
Sectors with the sharpest increases in Job postings Year-over-year change in US Job Postings Index as of Dec 1, 2023 Occupational Sector % change Driving 8.0 Physicians & Surgeons 5.8 Therapy Dol) Pharmacy -2.8 Civil Engineering yee Dental -4.6 Sports -5.1 Beauty & Wellness ri. Social Science -6.8 V
Slide 43: Sectors with the sharpest declines in job postings
Sectors with the sharpest declines in job postings Year-over-year change in US Job Postings Index as of Dec 1, 2023 Occupational Sector % change Software Development -48.8 Information Design & Documentation -42.5 Mathematics -36.4 Banking & Finance -34.8 IT Operations & Helpdesk -33.9 Human Resource
Slide 44: Postings are most resilient in sectors most likely to be in person
Postings are most resilient in sectors most likely to be in person US Job Postings Index by remote-work tier, data through Dec 1, 2023 == high-remote == medium-remote == low-remote 175 150 125 100 75 Feb 2020 Aug 2020 Feb 2021 Aug 2021 Feb 2022 Aug 2022 Feb 2023 Aug 2023 fe, Source: Indeed Job Posti
Slide 45: Pace of US monthly job gains
Pace of US monthly job gains Thousands of jobs, 3 month average of monthly change, Jan 2021 - Nov 2023 600 400 200 ie fee ee Wee eee 100K: threshold for keeping unemployment constant Jj Jl Ill Mam iam as (oem el QO eV OD 0 LEILA 2021 2022 2023 fe, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. indeed 45
Slide 46: Gender differences in US labor force participation rates
Gender differences in US labor force participation rates Share of population in the labor force, Jan 1995 - Nov 2023 90% 85% 80% == Men, ages 25-54 == Women, ages 25-54 75% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 fe, Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics indeed 46
Slide 47: Foreign-born workers are leading employment growth in the US
Foreign-born workers are leading employment growth in the US Employment, Index (100 = Feb 2020), data through Nov 2023 == Foreign-born = Total 105 100 95 90 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 “indeed Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data are 12-month average of non-seasonally adjusted employment in ee 4
Slide 48: US payroll growth by industry sector
US payroll growth by industry sector Nov 2023, month-over-month change, thousands of jobs Retail Trade (334 Professional & Business Services Transportation and Warehousing Mining & Logging Utilities Construction Financial Activities Wholesale Trade Information Other Services Manufacturing Leisure &
Slide 49: US quits rate by industry sector
US quits rate by industry sector Quits rates, ordered by % chng since Feb 2020 @ Feb 2020 @ oct 2023 Mining and Logging ® Construction 2.2) Manufacturing ® ® Transportation and Warehousing ® @ Leisure and Hospitality ® 4.5) Education and Health Services 0.12.2) Professional and Business Services (3)
Slide 50: US wage growth is fading across wage tiers
US wage growth is fading across wage tiers Year-over-year growth in posted wages, 3mo avg, Mar 2019 - Nov 2023 == low-wage = middle-wage = high-wage 12% 10% 8% 5% 4.8% 43% 2% 2.9% 2020 2022 2024 “indeed Source: Indeed Wage Tracker. Note: Wage tiers are determined by a category's median posted wage i
Slide 51: Signing bonuses have increased most in healthcare & in-person jobs since 2019
Signing bonuses have increased most in healthcare & in-person jobs since 2019 % of US Indeed job postings offering signing bonuses incentives in 2019 and 2023 Sector Medical Technician Nursing Personal Care & Home Health Social Science Therapy Physicians & Surgeons Beauty & Wellness Dental Source: I
Slide 52: US weekly hours have plateaued
US weekly hours have plateaued Average weekly hours, Jan 2019 - Nov 2023 == 3monthaverage = Monthly series 35.5 35.0 34.5 = Average from 2017 through 2019 34.0 33.5 2018 2020 2022 2024 fe Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics indeed 52
Slide 53: Posted wage growth remains high in many countries
6% 4% 2% 0% France Yt 8% 5% 2% 0% Posted wage growth remains high in many countries Year-on-year % change in posted wages to Nov 2023 === Wage growth y/y == Wage growth y/y (3mo avg) Germany 8% 5% 4.1% 2% 0% Ireland 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6% 3% 0% -3% Italy — ph 0.0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 8% 5%
Slide 54: Rising but approaching saturation in women's employment, Japan
Rising but approaching saturation in women's employment, Japan Female potential/actual employment rate (%) = Potential Employment Rate = Employment Rate 80% 70% 60% 50% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source: MHLW 'Labor Force Survey’, Author's calculation. “ndeed ‘Potential E
Slide 55: Nominal wage growth slows, Japan
Nominal wage growth slows,Japan Nominal wage growth (with bonus, without bonus), CPI, 2017 Jan - 2023 Sep = With Bonus = Without Bonus = CPI 5% 2.5% 0%; -2.5% -5% 17 18 19 20 ‘21 "22. '23 fe, Source: MHLW ‘Monthly Labor Survey" indeed 55
Slide 56: Remote-capable jobs exhibit a higher exposure to GenAI
Remote-capable jobs exhibit a higher exposure to GenAI Occupational groups by GenAI Rating and Remote Potential, United States, Aug '22 - Jul '23 ov = 6 a = 100% | Software Development @ 7) 4 FS © 75% oO »~ © a = R?=0.74 § 50% x Ll oe wo 3 ° 8 —, & 25% |[Driving 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Remote & Hybrid Jo
Slide 57: Differences in GenAI exposure by race/ethnicity
Differences in GenAI exposure by race/ethnicity Rating of GenAlI exposure based on Indeed job postings, US, Aug '22 - Jul '23 Asian Pacific high exposure moderate exposure low exposure Black Worke high exposure moderate exposure low exposure Workers White Workers high exposure moderate exposure low
Slide 58: Differences in GenAI exposure by age group
Differences in GenAI exposure by age group Rating of GenAl exposure based on Indeed job postings, US, Aug '22 - Jul '23 16-24 Year-Olds high exposure ia moderate exposure 0% 25% 50% 25-54 Year-Olds 55+ Year-Olds high exposure | 13.4% high exposure moderate exposure 584% moderate exposure ow exon] —
Slide 59: Differences in GenAI exposure by gender
Differences in GenAI exposure by gender Rating of GenAl exposure based on Indeed job postings, US, Aug '22 - Jul '23 Women high exposure moderate exposure low exposure Men high exposure moderate exposure low exposure Source: Indeed, American Community Survey 202). Hig ‘good’ or ‘exceilent’ level. Mo
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