Slide 1: Earnings Conference Call – 4th Quarter Fiscal 2012
The Mosaic Company Earnings Conference Call – 4th Quarter Fiscal 2012 July 17th, 2012 Jim Prokopanko, President and Chief Executive Officer Larry Stranghoener, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Laura Gagnon, Vice President Investor Relations Exhibit 99.2
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statement
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectati
Slide 3: Mosaic had an excellent year, despite macro challenges
$1.3 $2.7 $2.6 Mosaic had an excellent year, despite macro challenges Records set in FY 12 Highest Revenue Highest Operating Cash Flow ROIC (1) of 15% >65% shareholder payout ratio *FY11 includes $569 million gain from sale of Fosfertil MACRO CHALLENGES MOSAIC RESULTS European uncertainty Distributo
Slide 4: A Year of Progress
Operational Excellence Innovation Issue Resolution Capital Strength A Year of Progress All-time best safety performance Operational efficiencies Expansion on plan Premium products Operational processes South Fort Meade resolution Potash Tolling agreement resolution Formation offering completed Debt
Slide 5: Financial Results Review
Financial Results Review
Slide 6: Consolidated Q4 FY12: Performance Reflects Grower Demand
Consolidated Q4 FY12 Q4 FY12 vs. Q4 FY11 Q4 FY12 vs. Q3 FY12 Performance Reflects Grower Demand Revenue $2.8 billion (1)% 29% Gross Profit $834 million (16)% 60% Operating Cash Flow $1.2 billion 28% 208%
Slide 7: Reported Earnings Q4 FY12
Reported Earnings ($ in million except per share) Q4 FY12 Earnings Earnings Before Taxes $689 Net Earnings $507 Earnings per share (diluted) $1.19 Impact of Notable Items $(0.06)
Slide 8: Potash Segment Highlights
In millions, except MOP price Q4 FY12 Q3 FY12 Q4 FY11 Potash Segment Highlights Net sales $1,037 $553 $982 Gross Margin $514 $270 $516 Percent of net sales 50% 49% 53% Operating earnings $464 $234 $469 Sales volumes 2.0 1.1 2.2 Production volume 1.9 1.8 2.2 Production operating rate 85% 79% 95% Avg
Slide 9: Phosphates Segment Highlights
In millions, except DAP price Q4 FY12 Q3 FY12 Q4 FY11 Phosphates Segment Highlights Net sales $1,789 $1,652 $1,882 Gross Margin $322 $259 $479 Percent of net sales 18% 16% 25% Operating earnings $224 $190 $370 Sales volumes 2.9 2.6 2.8 NA production volume (a) 2.1 2.0 2.1 Finished product operating
Slide 10: Financial Guidance Summary – Fiscal 2013
Category Guidance – Fiscal 2013 Potash Q1 Sales volume 1.8 – 2.2 million tonnes Q1 MOP selling price $415 – $440 per tonne Q1 Operating rate above 70 percent Phosphates Q1 Sales volume 2.5 – 2.8 million tonnes Q1 DAP selling price $510 - $535 per tonne Q1 Operating rate above 75 percent Capital Expe
Slide 11: Maximize shareholder value through our capital policy
Maximize shareholder value through our capital policy Share repurchases allowed by end of FY13 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 Disciplined Capital Allocation 1. Expansion Capital 2. Potential Investments 3. Return to shareholders CAPITAL MANAGEMENT We are confident in our ability to generate significant cas
Slide 12: Fiscal FY13 Outlook
Fiscal FY13 Outlook
Slide 13: Recent commodity price jumps highlight delicate nature of global food security
Recent commodity price jumps highlight delicate nature of global food security 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 $ BU Corn Price Daily Close of Front Month Futures Contract Source: CME 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 $ BU Soybean Price Daily Close of Front Month Futures Contract Source: CME
Slide 14: Global stock to use below historical average
Global stock to use below historical average Source: USDA and Mosaic 2012/13 Grain and Oilseed Scenario Assumptions Low USDA High Harvested Area Change 1.35% 1.35% 1.35% Yield Deviation from Trend * -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 Demand Growth 1.43% 1.63% 1.83% * Largest deviation from the 12-year trend 2000-201
Slide 15: Phosphates: A tight market
Supply uncertainty Low inventories Phosphates: A tight market INDUSTRY DYNAMICS MOSAIC STRENGTHS Mine productivity Ammonia manufacturing Premium products Calendar years 11E 12F 13F Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/TSP WORLD PROCESSED PHOSPHATE SHIPMENTS China India Other Asia Latin America Europe/FSU North Americ
Slide 16: Potash: Stable
Uncertain Indian demand Growing emerging markets Muted dealer sentiment Low natural gas prices Potash: Stable Tolling agreement benefit New capacity online Solution mining INDUSTRY DYNAMICS MOSAIC STRENGTHS Calendar years 11E 12F 13F Mil Tonnes KCl WORLD MURIATE OF POTASH SHIPMENTS China India Other
Slide 17: Thank you
The Mosaic Company Thank you
Slide 18: Earnings Sensitivity to Key Drivers
FY12 Actual Change FY12 Margin % Actual % Impact on Segment Margin Pre-Tax Impact EPS Impact Earnings Sensitivity to Key Drivers (a) Marketing MOP Price ($/tonne) (b) $448 $50 49.1% 9.0% $299 $0.50 Potash Volume (million metric tonnes) 6.7 49.1% 4.8% $158 $0.26 DAP Price ($/tonne) $555 $50 18.7% 6.1
Slide 19: Phosphate Raw Material Costs
$417 $451 Phosphate Raw Material Costs Realized costs of raw materials in COGS lag spot prices by approximately 3 months. Realized ammonia costs, in most periods shown, include a benefit of our manufacture of ammonia at Faustina.
Slide 20: Phosphate Raw Material Costs
$200 $196 Phosphate Raw Material Costs Realized costs of raw materials in COGS lag spot prices by approximately 3 months. Sulfur realized prices include storage, conversion and transformation costs of $10 - $15 / ton.
Slide 21: Phosphate Rock Sourcing
Phosphate Rock Sourcing $ - $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Q4 FY11 Q1 FY12 Q2 FY12 Q3 FY12 Q4 FY 12 ROCK MIX USED IN U.S. OPERATIONS US mined rock Purchased Miski Mayo rock Other purchased rock -
Slide 22: Canadian Resource Taxes and Royalties
In millions Canadian Resource Taxes and Royalties FY12 ACTUAL Sales $3,302 Combined Royalty & Surcharge Rate 4.0% Royalty & Surcharge Potash Segment GM before CRT 1,950 Add back Depreciation Subtract Capex 1,171 Estimated Taxable Profit 1,012 Estimate Profit Tax: 15% and 20% of taxable profit @ 15%
Slide 23: ROIC Reconciliation
ROIC Reconciliation ($ in millions) FY2011 FY2012 FY2012 FY2012 FY2012 Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Operating Profit 729.6 797.0 413.7 670.8 Taxes 205.1 230.7 87.0 188.6 Equity Earnings 1.8 0.9 4.2 6.4 NOPAT 526.3 567.2 330.9 488.6 NOPAT - Trailing 4 Quarters 1,913.0 May-11 Aug-