Mosaic Company (the) · NYSE:MOS
Mosaic Company (the) — The Mosaic Company — Q4 2023 Earnings Presentation
21 slides from Mosaic Company (the)'s earnings presentation, Feb 22, 2024
Slide 1: 2023 Results
The Mosaic Company 2023 Results February Date: 21, 2024
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may include, but are not limited to, statements about proposed or pending common dividends, speci
Slide 3: 2023 Performance
2023 Performance CONSOLIDATED OPERATING NET ADJUSTED (1) REVENUES EARNINGS EARNINGS EBITDA $13,696M $1,338M $1,165M $2,761M PHOSPHATE POTASH MOSAIC FERTILIZANTES Net Operating Adjusted(1) Net Operating Adjusted(1) Net Operating Adjusted(1) Revenues Earnings EBITDA Revenues Earnings EBITDA Revenues E
Slide 4: Low Global Stocks-to-Use Ratio
Low Global Stocks-to-Use Ratio Demand for global grain and oilseeds will likely outpace production and keep stocks-to-use ratios low. MMT Grain and Oilseed Stocks Percent World Less China Stocks Percent of Use 500 20% 450 19% 400 18% 350 17% 300 16% 250 15% 200 14% 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2
Slide 5: Global Stocks-to-Use Ratio by Crops
Global Stocks-to-Use Ratio by Crops Corn and soybean stocks-to-use ratio is increasing but it represents less than one-third of global phosphate and potash consumption. MMT Corn + Soybean Stocks Percent Phosphates Consumption Stocks Percent of Use 300 22% 250 20% 29% 200 18% 150 16% 29% 42% 100 14%
Slide 6: A Favorable Secular Biofuels Trend
A Favorable Secular Biofuels Trend Biofuels are becoming a significant source of demand for soybeans. Bil Bu U.S. Soybean Use Percent of Total Use 5.0 30% 4.0 24% 3.0 18% 2.0 12% 1.0 6% 0.0 0% 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20 21/22 23/24 Total Use Soybean-equivalent for Biofuels Sourc
Slide 7: Brazil Fertilizer Shipments
Brazil Fertilizer Shipments Favorable fertilizer affordability will likely support shipments growth in 2024. Bag/MT Brazil Soybean Barter Ratio Mil Tonnes Brazil Fertilizer Shipments 40 35 50 45 - 47 Less Affordable Fertilizers Actual/Estimate Forecast Range 30 45 25 20 40 15 10 More Affordable Fert
Slide 8: Global Phosphate and Potash Demand
Global Phosphate and Potash Demand Demand is expected to continue to recover in 2024. Mil Tonnes Global Phosphate Shipments Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP KCl Global MOP Shipments 80 75 74-77 69-72 75 70 70 65 65 60 60 55 55 50 50 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23E24F * NPS products included
Slide 9: Phosphate and Potash Prices
Phosphate and Potash Prices $/MT Global DAP/MAP Benchmark Prices $/MT Potash Prices Published Spot Prices Published Spot Prices 1,400 1,400 c&f Brazil c&f SE Asia fob NOLA delivered Cornbelt 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 DAP fob NOLA DAP c&f India 200 200 MAP fob NOLA MAP c&f Brazi
Slide 10: Highlights
Highlights • Robust 1H demand across key markets, followed by a strong Fall application season and Winter fill program in North America. Demand strength is extending into the 2024 Phosphates Spring application season • Expect 1Q stripping margin to remain elevated • Completed development of the Este
Slide 11: Strategy & Initiatives
Strategy & Initiatives Value-Add Products Expansion Brazil Footprint Expansion • Grow value-added products and target 50% of N.A. phosphates sales volume • Expand our presence in the growing from MicroEssentials with the expansion northern agricultural region in Brazil by of our Riverview capacity c
Slide 12: Capital Allocation Strategy
Capital Allocation Strategy Our capital allocation strategy remains unchanged. Maintain Strong Balance Return Capital to Invest in the Business Sheet Shareholders High-returning, focused Current balance sheet reflects Continue returning virtually all investments with modest capital investment grade
Slide 13: Outlook for 2024
Outlook for 2024 Pricing & Sensitivities FY 2023 Sensitivity Average DAP fob plant ($/tonne)(1) $573 $10 price = $70 mm adjusted EBITDA Average MOP fob mine ($/tonne)(2) $308 $10 price = $60 mm adjusted EBITDA BRL/USD(3) 5.00 Unhedged: $0.10 = $10 mm adjusted EBITDA (1) Approximately 20% of DAP pric
Slide 14: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 15: Potash 2023 Performance
Potash 2023 Performance Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA(1) Bridge $(1,646) 2023 2022 Variance $376 $(2,548) Sales Volumes (mt in millions) 8.870 8.101 0.769 MOP Selling Price (FOB Mine) ($/mt) $ 308 $ 632 $ (324) $3,117 MOP cash costs of production (excl Brine) ($/mt) $ 74 $ 78 $ (5) $ in millions $ in millions
Slide 16: Phosphate 2023 Performance
Phosphate 2023 Performance Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA(1) Bridge 2023 2022 Variance $(992) Sales Volumes (mt in millions) 6.991 6.558 0.433 $127 $109 $(1,696) DAP Selling Price (FOB Plant) ($/mt) $ 573 $ 804 $ (231) $695 Production volume (mt in millions) 6.568 6.647 (0.079) FL Cash Rock Cost of production
Slide 17: Mosaic Fertilizantes 2023 Performance
Mosaic Fertilizantes 2023 Performance Y/Y Adjusted EBITDA(1) Bridge 2023 2022 Variance $(722) Sales Volumes (mt in millions) 9.683 9.438 0.245 $1,049 $16 $(2,756) $ in millions Average Finished Product Selling Price ($/mt) $ 587 $ 878 $ (291) MAP Price (delivered price to third party) ($/mt) $ 597 $
Slide 18: Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Consolidated Earnings (in millions) 2023 2022 Consolidated net earnings attributable to Mosaic $1,165 $3,583 Less: Consolidated interest expense, net (129) (139) Plus: Consolidated depreciation, depletion and amortization 960 933 Plus: Accretion expense 96 81 Plus
Slide 19: Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Potash Earnings (in millions) 2023 2022 Operating earnings $1,152 $2,768 Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 299 307 Plus: Accretion expense 9 8 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) 41 (19) Plus: Other income (expense) (45) - Plus: Notable items 15 53 Adj
Slide 20: Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Phosphate Earnings (in millions) 2023 2022 Operating earnings $375 $1,347 Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 486 485 Plus: Accretion expense 67 55 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) (1) (8) Plus: Other income (expense) (16) (32) Plus: Dividends from eq
Slide 21: Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Mosaic Fertilizantes Earnings (in millions) 2023 2022 Operating earnings $75 $910 Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 165 125 Plus: Accretion expense 20 17 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) 80 8 Plus: Other income (expense) (4) (4) Less: Earnings (loss