Yara International Asa · OSL:YAR
Yara International Asa — Arctic Securities - March 2026
15 slides from Yara International Asa's conference presentation, Mar 4, 2026
Slide 1: Market update
Market update Silje Ingeberg Nygaard Director Market Intelligence 4 March 2026
Slide 2: Middle East conflict
Middle East conflict Share of trade: Urea exports through Strait of Hormuz 1/3 of global urea (excluding Oman Mt urea (bubbles: % share of world trade) and Egypt) 25 40% ~20% of global LNG 33% 34% 20 31% 30% 15 ~18% of DAP/MAP 20% 10 ~45% of global sulfur 10% 5 ~22% of global ammonia 0 0% 2022 2023
Slide 3: Urea and natural gas prices – unfolding as we speak
Urea and natural gas prices – unfolding as we speak EU natural gas price April futures contract, EUR/MWh Per 9 a.m. 4/3-26 55.3 EUR/MWh = 19 USD/MMBtu Source: average of publications, barchart.com
Slide 4: Food prices down slightly in January, cereals stable
Food prices down slightly in January, cereals stable 3
Slide 5: Urea (granular) fob Arab Gulf (excluding US)
Urea (granular) fob Arab Gulf(excluding US) USD/tonne 500 2026 2025 450 400 350 2024 300 250 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Slide 6: India has so far this season imported more urea than previous season
India has so far this season, Apr-Jan, imported 4 million tons more urea than previous season, at 8.9 million tons 23/24 25/26 Monthly production (kt) Monthly sales (kt) 24/25 3,200 6,000 2,800 4,000 2,400 2,000 2,000 0 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No
Slide 7: How much will India import in 2026?
How much will India import in 2026? India tenders: purchased vs. requested volumes 2.5 Purchases Requested 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan- Feb 2025 26 Source: CRU
Slide 8: Urea export from China
Urea export from China – almost 5 million tons in 2025 6000 2023 2024 2025 5000 4000 3000 kt product 2000 1000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Product code: 31021000
Slide 9: Chinese urea domestic supply down 8% through December
Chinese urea domestic supply down 8% through December Chinese urea production Domestic urea balance China 6.6 40 Million tons Million tons 35.4 33.4 33.3 -8% 25/26 35 6.1 30.6 24/25 30 0.1 4.8 5.6 25 23/24 20 5.1 15 4.6 10 22/23 4.1 5 0 Domestic Domestic Production Production Export Export 3.6 Jul A
Slide 10: DAP fob Morocco (MAP=dotted lines)
DAP fob Morocco (MAP=dotted lines) USD/tonne 850 800 2025 750 2026 700 650 2024 600 550 500 450 400 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Average of publications
Slide 11: Chinese P exports up in 2025 despite stricter controls
Chinese P exports up in 2025 despite stricter controls, mainly due to the “Other-NP” loophole Million tons P2O5 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 DAP MAP TSP Other NP Source: IFA, Chinese customs. ( Assuming 35% P2O5 in “Other NP”, included from 2009)
Slide 12: MOP granular fob Vancouver
MOP granular fob Vancouver USD/tonne 400 2026 2025 350 300 250 2024 200 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Slide 13: Supporting material
Supporting material
Slide 14: Sulphur fob Arab Gulf
13 Sulphur fob Arab Gulf USD/tonne 600 2026 500 2025 400 300 200 2024 100 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Slide 15: Upgrading margins from rock to DAP in Morocco (proxy calculation)
14 Upgrading margins from rock to DAP in Morocco (proxy calculation) USD/tonne 300 2025 250 200 2024 150 100 50 2026 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Average of publications, DAP fob Morocco – (1.43*Rock fob Morocco + 0.46*S fob Arab Gulf + 0.23*(NH3 fob Caribbean + 40))