Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP
Thai Oil Public — Q1 2022 Earnings Presentation
55 slides from Thai Oil Public's earnings presentation, May 12, 2022
Slide 1: Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q1/22 Analyst Presentation
Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q1/22 Analyst Presentation 12 May 2022 Time : 10:00 - 12:00 hrs. Online Channel : TOP IR Application, Facebook Live, MST
Slide 2: Disclaimer
-2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad
Slide 3: Presentation Agenda (Q1/22)
-3- Presentation Agenda (Q1/22) KEY HIGHLIGHTS PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OUTLOOK FINAL REMARKS
Slide 4: Key Highlights
-4- KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Slide 5: Concern over Geopolitical Tension
2022 – Recovering Fundamental on Return of Petroleum Demand amid -5- Concern over Geopolitical Tension Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark 2022 – Key Market Highlight Q1/22 Key Performance & Business Highlights Q1/22 TOP Group Net Profit Strategy - 3Vs 2022 Key Market Highlight Impact to
Slide 6: Q1/22 Key Performance Highlight
-6- Q1/22 Key Performance Highlight Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark 2022 – Key Market Highlight Q1/22 Key Performance & Business Highlights Q1/22 TOP Group Net Profit Strategy - 3Vs Market Highlight Contribution ($/bbl) QoQ Dubai rose from $73.2/bbl to $110.9/bbl Dubai ($/bbl) (ending
Slide 7: Key Actions to Capitalize on Improving Market Condition
-7- Key Actions to Capitalize on Improving Market Condition Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark 2022 – Key Market Highlight Q1/22 Key Performance & Business Highlights Q1/22 TOP Group Net Profit Strategy - 3Vs Key Business Highlight Operational Commercial Financial • Crude optimization to
Slide 8: Q1/22 TOP Group Net Profit
-8- Q1/22 TOP Group Net Profit Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark 2022 – Key Market Highlight Q1/22 Key Performance & Business Highlights Q1/22 TOP Group Net Profit Strategy - 3Vs TOP Group Net Profit Net Profit Contributions* Q1/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 Unit : Million Baht (MB) 3,360 MB 5,033 MB
Slide 9: Extraordinary Effort: 3Vs Strategy
-9- Extraordinary Effort : 3Vs Strategy Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark 2022 – Key Market Highlight Q1/22 Key Performance & Business Highlights Q1/22 TOP Group Net Profit Strategy - 3Vs • Restructure TOP Solvent to be “TOP Next” 1 Value Maximization • Integrate & expand sales & market
Slide 10: Performance Analysis
-10- PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
Slide 11: Refinery: High & Reliable Utilization to Capture Strong Product Margins
-11- Refinery: High & Reliable Utilization to Capture Strong Product Margins Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate Domestic Oil Demand Unit: % Utilization Rate Mar’22 Mogas Je
Slide 12: Refinery: Strong Mkt GRM on Improving Petroleum Demand
-12- Refinery: Strong Mkt GRM on Improving Petroleum Demand Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization 2021 2022 2021 Q1/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 $/bbl Q1 Q2 Q
Slide 13: Aromatic: Softening Contribution from Weakening BZ Margin
-13- Aromatic: Softening Contribution from Weakening BZ Margin Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others Aromatic Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2021 2022 2021 Q1/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY 8
Slide 14: Base Oil: Softening Contribution Pressured by Lower Lube Spread
-14- Base Oil: Softening Contribution Pressured by Lower Lube Spread Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2021 2022 2021 Q1/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Slide 15: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost
-15- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Oper
Slide 16: Power Sector: Lower Contribution to the Group
-16- Power Sector : Lower Contribution to the Group Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others Power Business Sector Equity holding in SPP (4) (5) 74% 100% Power & Steam Sales Electricity(1) 2,544 2,491 2,455 (4) Thaioil
Slide 17: Olefins Business: Softening Petrochemical Contribution
-17- Olefins Business : Softening Petrochemical Contribution Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others Olefin Product Spreads TOP Investment Indonesia (TII) Performance Polymer Spreads Monomer Spreads Net Profit (millio
Slide 18: Q1/22 Performance Breakdown
-18- Q1/22 Performance Breakdown Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others (1) Others & Consolidated Petroleum & Lube Base Petrochemical Power (2) New Business (3) Net Profit Q1/21 1,695 634 594 349 3,360 Q4/21 4,347 (3
Slide 19: Q1/22 TOP Group Consolidated P&L
-19- Q1/22 TOP Group Consolidated P&L Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others (Unit : million baht) Q4/21 Q1/22 QoQ+/(-) Q1/21 YoY+/(-) (A) Sales Revenue 104,298 114,506 10,208 73,449 41,057 (C) Net Realized G/(L) on
Slide 20: Q1/22 Consolidated Cash Flow
-20- Q1/22 Consolidated Cash Flow Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others (Unit: MB) Q1’21 Q1’22 Represent Operating Cash Flow (CFO) (3,364) 6,260 Q1’21 Q1’22 Net income 3,882 9,004 Investing Cash Flow (CFI) (4,727) (
Slide 21: Q1/22 TOP Group Financial Position & Financial Ratios
-21- Q1/22 TOP Group Financial Position & Financial Ratios Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 31 Mar 22 (Unit: million THB) Total IBD Net Debt 36
Slide 22: On Track to Execute Recapitalization Plan
-22- On Track to Execute Recapitalization Plan Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Refinery Aromatic & LAB Base Oil GIM Power Olefin All business F/S & others BoD Approval for AGM Approval GPSC Share Sale Equity Offering Recapitalization Plan Execution Execution 99.86% for GPSC share sa
Slide 23: 2H/2022 Outlook
-23- 2H/2022 OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Refinery • Petrochemical • Base Oil & Bitumen
Slide 24: Crude Market Remains Uncertain on Russian Oil Sanction
24-- --24 Crude Market Remains Uncertain on Russian Oil Sanction Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion A Less Short Term Impact on Russian Oil, but Uncertainties Ahead B Potential Supply Replacement from SPR and OPEC/Non-OPEC MBD Russia
Slide 25: More Supply from SPR Release and OPEC+ with Limited Spare Capacity to Fulfil Higher Demand
More Supply from SPR Release and OPEC+ with Limited Spare Capacity 25-- --25 to Fulfil Higher Demand Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion A Other Supply Can Fill the Gap in case of Russian Supply Disruption B Limited Spare Capacity to
Slide 26: Market Highlight: Low Product Inventory on Strong Demand and Lower Supply from Russia and China
Market Highlight : Low Product Inventory on Strong Demand and Lower Supply 26-- --26 from Russia and China Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion A Solid Demand Growth to Above 2019 B Limited Supply on Refinery Closure C Less Product Exp
Slide 27: Unprecedented High Refinery Margin On Tight Supply Across All Barrels
27-- --27 Unprecedented High Refinery Margin On Tight Supply Across All Barrels Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) Avg. 2017: $7.1/BBL Avg. 2018: $5.9/BBL Avg. 2019: $3.7/BBL Avg. 2020: $0.4/BBL Avg. 20
Slide 28: Firm Jet/Kero Market from Tight Supply and Very Low Inventory
Strong Gasoline from Demand Recovery and Low Stock 28-- --28 Firm Jet/Kero Market from Tight Supply and Very Low Inventory Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion Gasoline Market Jet/Kero Market 11. Asian and U.S. Gasoline Demand Continue
Slide 29: Firm Gasoil Market from Tight Supply and Low Inventory
Firm Gasoil Market from Tight Supply and Low Inventory -29- -29- Firm Fuel Oil Market Led by Higher Demand and Limited Supply Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion
Slide 30: Demand Growth to Outpace Refining Capacity Addition in 2022 and Medium Term
-30- -30- Demand Growth to Outpace Refining Capacity Addition in 2022 and Medium Term Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion Asia Pacific and Middle East Effective CDU Addition VS Additional Demand AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China
Slide 31: Recovering Domestic Demand in 2H/22 on Re-opening Policy, But Capped by High Oil Price
Recovering Domestic Demand in 2H/22 on Re-opening Policy, But Capped by -31- -31- High Oil Price from Russia-Ukraine Situation Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion A Higher Gasoline Demand in 2H/22 B Higher Jet Demand in 2H/22 Gasoline
Slide 32: Improving Demand Growth to Limit Further Downside in Aromatics Market
-32- -32- Improving Demand Growth to Limit Further Downside in Aromatics Market Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion A More New Capacity Partially Offset by Run Cut from B Improving Improved Demand market in 2021following Easing due to
Slide 33: More Olefins Capacity Addition amid Firm Demand Growth
-33- -33- More Olefins Capacity Addition amid Firm Demand Growth Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion A ShortCapacity More Term Support by SM Addition Run from Rate New andStart-up Plant Lower BZ Stock esp. China B Improved More market
Slide 34: Softer Base Oil Market from Higher Refinery Run Rate amid Gr.1 Plant Closure in Asia
-34- -34- Softer Base Oil Market from Higher Refinery Run Rate amid Gr.1 Plant Closure in Asia Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion A Increasing Feedstock Supply from Higher Refinery Run in Asia B Plant Gr.1 Closure in 2H/22 Percent As
Slide 35: 2H/2022 Outlook Conclusion
-35- -35- 2H/2022 Outlook Conclusion (vs. 1H/2022) Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Crude Refinery Petrochemical Lube & Bitumen Conclusion Crude Oil More Supply from SPR Release and OPEC+ with Limited Spare Capacity to Fulfil Higher Demand Refinery Promising Refinery Margin on Strong D
Slide 36: Final Remark
-36- FINAL REMARK
Slide 37: Looking Forward
-37- Looking Forward Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark Key Global Market Outlook What’s the Experts say… : Crude Oil Refinery Petrochemical • Oil price boom may peak around 2022-2024 New Golden Age of Refinery (2024-30) • Chemicals players are streamlining their portfolio, due to crude
Slide 38: Thaioil's Roadmap 2022 - 2030
-38- Thaioil’s Roadmap 2022 - 2030 Key Highlight Performance Outlook Final Remark 2022 – 2025 2026– 2030 Building on Our Strong Foundation : IC2C Post CFP : New Round of Growth • Realize strong earnings growth from COVID-19 • Capitalize on/Maximize petroleum profitability industry up-cycle • Ensure
Slide 39: Appendix
-39- APPENDIX • Dividend • CAPEX • Financial Performance • Optimised & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products
Slide 40: Dividend Payment
Dividend -40- Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/share EPSR 2H dividend 1H dividend Year Dividend 12.18 10.40 9.19 9.40 8.66 7.82 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 6.17 4.57 4.97 4.39 2.75 3.
Slide 41: TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan
CAPEX -41- -41- TOP Group Strategic Investment Plan CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Updated as of April 2022 Estimated Budgeting for Actual Investment Plan Project Q1/22 2022 - 2025 CFP project * 173 1,102 Total Ongoing CAPEX 11 167 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 2 53 Infrastructu
Slide 42: Q1/22 - Financial Performance
Financial Performance -42- Q1/22 - Financial Performance TOP Group Net Profit Gross Refining Margin - GRM Unit : Million Baht (MB) $/bbl Q1/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 Q1/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 Market GRM 0.7 5.4 6.4 3,360 MB 5,033 MB 7,183 MB 167 Stock 6.2 2.9 16.2 F/X g/l on foreign Gain/(Loss) currency assets & liabi
Slide 43: Optimized & Flexible Operations...Superior Performance
Crude & Production -43- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Thai Oil is able to diversify its type of crude intake and product outputs to maximize demand and margin Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Reference Domestic demand for TOP configuration* Crude output Price petroleum
Slide 44: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU Margin
World GRM -44- -44- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin $/BBL $/BBL SINGAPORE GRM EU – US Margins 30 70 SING CRACK SING HYDRO BRENT CRACK BRENT HYDRO WTI CRACK 25 60 20 50 15 40 10 30 5 20 0 -5 10 -10 0 -15 -10 MBD U.S. Crude Refinery Input MBD EU 16 Crude Refinery Input Japan Crude Refinery Input Source
Slide 45: Global Crude Oil Inventories
Inventories -45- -45- Global Crude Oil Inventories MBBL U.S. Crude Stocks (excl. SPR) MBBL Crude Oil, Cushing, Oklahoma 600 Source : EIA 80 Source : EIA 550 70 500 60 50 450 40 400 30 350 20 300 10 250 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021
Slide 46: Global Gasoline Inventories
Inventories -46- -46- Global Gasoline Inventories U.S. Gasoline Stocks Singapore Gasoline Stocks MBBL Source : EIA MBBL 280 Source : IE Singapore 260 17 240 220 200 180 7 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 2022 avg 17-21 5yr-range 2019 20
Slide 47: Global Middle Distillate Inventories
Inventories -47- -47- Global Middle Distillate Inventories U.S. Diesel Stocks Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks MBBL MBBL 200 Source : EIA 20 Source : IE Singapore 180 160 140 10 120 100 80 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 2022 avg 1
Slide 48: Global Fuel Oil Inventories
Inventories -48- -48- Global Fuel Oil Inventories U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Stocks Singapore Residual Fuel Oil Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : IE Singapore Source : EIA 50 30 40 20 30 20 10 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2020 2021 2022 avg 17-21 5yr-ran
Slide 49: China's Refined Product Exports
Inventories -49- -49- China’s Refined Product Exports China’s Gasoline Exports China’s Gasoil Exports KBD KBD Source : China Custom Source : China Custom 600 800 500 700 600 400 500 300 400 200 300 200 100 100 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2
Slide 50: Domestic LPG Demand
Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -50- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight KT/Day 2022 2021 2020 2019 • In 2M’22, LPG demand increased by 7.7% YoY mainly following the increase in automobile and petrochemical sectors. LPG 20 demand in the automobile and petrochemical sec
Slide 51: Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand
Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -51- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand GASOLINE/GASOHOL Demand Highlight MML/Day • In 3M’22, Gasoline demand was decreased by 5.7% YoY to an 2022 2021 2020 2019 average of 29.3 MML/day and Gasohol demand also 36 decreased by 5.4%
Slide 52: Domestic Jet Demand
Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -52- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET Demand JET Demand Highlight MML/Day 2022 2021 2020 2019 • In 3M’22, Jet consumption increased by 54.7% YoY. The demand 24 was recovered from easing traveling and resuming on Test and Go program since 1 Feb’22, which allowed
Slide 53: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand
Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -53- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Gasoil Demand Highlight MML/Day 2022 2021 2020 2019 • In 3M’22, Gasoil demand increased by 13.6% YoY. The demand was 80 77.8 supported by the improve of economic activities in Jan’22 and 75.4 74.4 75 Feb
Slide 54: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand
Thailand Petroleum Demand by Products -54- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand 2022 2021 2020 2019 Fuel Oil Demand Highlight MML/Day • In 3M’22, Fuel Oil consumption rose by 18.4% YoY, as the 8 6.7 demand in the transportation sector, which accounted for 52.4% 6.3 6.1 of total Fuel Oil
Slide 55: Thank You
-55- -55- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Thai Oil Public Company — Q1 2022 Earnings Presentation on 6ix