Carrier Global Corporation · NYSE:CARR
Carrier Global — Q4 2025 Earnings Presentation
33 slides from Carrier Global's earnings presentation, Feb 5, 2026
Slide 1: Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call
Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call February 5, 2026
Slide 2: Cautionary statement
Cautionary statement This communication contains statements which, to the extent they are not statements of historical or present fact, constitute "forward-looking statements" under the securities laws. From time to time, oral or written forward-looking statements may also be included in other infor
Slide 3: 2025 Summary Highlights
2025 Summary Highlights $21.7B Sales Q4 orders up >15% Organic1 (1%) Y/Y • Record CSA commercial orders, up >80% with Applied up 3x Adjusted operating $3.3B Organic sales decline of (1%) driven by residential and light commercial globally largely offset by strength in CHVAC and aftermarket profit1 (
Slide 4: Driving outsized growth in data centers
Market Product Driving outsized growth in data centers Aftermarket Systems ~$1.5B 2025 Highlights Up 3X • Orders up 4x in Q4, up ~60% for full year ~$1.0B • Product platforming and strong global presence driving outsized growth • Launched CDUs, expanding QuantumLeapTM offering ~$0.5B • CSA CHVAC cap
Slide 5: Continuing to drive double-digit aftermarket growth
Market Product Continuing to drive double-digit aftermarket growth Aftermarket Systems 2025 Highlights • Double-digit CAGR from 2020 – 2025 DD CAGR Parts capture • Expanding parts capture through supplier and channel alignment and network optimization >$5B • Attachment rate up ~3x in CSA DD CAGR Ser
Slide 6: Differentiated home energy management systems
Market Product Differentiated home energy management systems Aftermarket Systems Carrier Energy (CSA Residential) System Profi (CSE Residential) • Carrier products consume ~13% of the grid during • Targeting 2x increase of System Profi installers by peak hours end of 2026 • New integrated heat pump
Slide 7: End-to-end transportation system solutions
Market Product End-to-end transportation system solutions Aftermarket Systems Example: Container connectivity (CST) Every Improved device Optimized reliability connected spare parts through positioning preventative maintenance Real-time Lynx Fleet Increased Remote wi-fi real-time operating fleet sup
Slide 8: CSA Residential outlook
Market Product CSA Residential outlook Aftermarket Systems Industry unit volumes1 Key highlights ~9.7M Estimated industry • Premier high margin business average: ~9M units • Leading market position with strong brands and channel ~7.5M • Growing new home construction share with key homebuilder win ~6
Slide 9: CSE Residential and Light commercial outlook
Market Product CSE Residential and Light commercial outlook Aftermarket Systems Sales drivers Europe heating industry outlook2 Heat pump outlook Boiler outlook ~Flat DD ~6.7M (L-MSD) CAGR ~1.4M CAGR ~6.1M ~1.1M (M-HSD) Boiler to HP Price Aftermarket Initiatives 2026 Sales 1 2024 2025 2026E 2024 2025
Slide 10: 2026 Outlook
2026 Outlook CS CS CS CS Americas Europe AME Transportation 2026 Guidance2 Commercial ++ Commercial + China CHVAC + Truck / Trailer ~ Sales ~$22 Billion 2026 Residential – RLC HPs + China RLC – Container – Business outlook Light CML – RLC boilers – Rest of Asia + Sensitech + Adj. operating ~$3.4 Bil
Slide 11: Q4 & FY 2025 Results
Q4 & FY 2025 Results Q4 2025 Y/Y FY 2025 Y/Y Sales $4,837M (6%) $21,747M (3%) Organic sales1 (9%) (1%) Acq / div, net 0% (3%) FX 3% 1% Adjusted operating profit1 $455M (33%) $3,292M Adjusted operating margin1 9.4% (380) bps 15.1% (70) bps Adjusted effective tax rate1 18.1% 20.4% Adjusted EPS1 $0.34
Slide 12: Q4 & FY 2025 Climate Solutions Americas (CSA)
Q4 & FY 2025 Climate Solutions Americas (CSA) Q4 2025 Y/Y FY 2025 Y/Y Q4 Highlights Sales $1,935M (17%) $10,470M (1%) • Orders up ~35% with commercial2 up >80% building a strong backlog for Organic sales1 (17%) (1%) 2026 and beyond Acq / div, net 0% 0% • Strong commercial2 performance, sales up doub
Slide 13: Q4 & FY 2025 Climate Solutions Europe (CSE)
Q4 & FY 2025 Climate Solutions Europe (CSE) Q4 2025 Y/Y FY 2025 Y/Y Q4 Highlights Sales $1,332M 6% $5,044M 1% • Residential and light commercial sales down (MSD) Organic sales1 (2%) (3%) • Commercial sales up MSD Acq / div, net 0% 0% • Margin expansion driven by strong FX 8% 4% productivity and syne
Slide 14: Q4 & FY 2025 Climate Solutions Asia Pacific Middle East & Africa (CSAME)
Q4 & FY 2025 Climate Solutions Asia Pacific Middle East & Africa (CSAME) Q4 2025 Y/Y FY 2025 Y/Y Q4 Highlights Sales $798M (9%) $3,339M (5%) • Continued pressure in China with total sales down ~(20%) Organic sales1 (9%) (5%) • RLC down ~(30%), including Acq / div, net 0% 0% ~10pts due to field inven
Slide 15: Q4 & FY 2025 Climate Solutions Transportation (CST)
Q4 & FY 2025 Climate Solutions Transportation (CST) Q4 2025 Y/Y FY 2025 Y/Y Q4 Highlights Sales $772M 13% $2,894 (17%) • Strong growth in container with sales up >45% driven by strong Organic sales1 10% 4% OptimaLine adoption Acq / div, net 0% (22%) • Global truck and trailer sales flat FX 3% 1% • G
Slide 16: Q4 2025 Organic orders up 16% vs. up 13% in Q4 2024
Q4 2025 Organic orders up 16% vs. up 13% in Q4 20243,4 Climate Solutions Americas1 Q4 ‘24 Q4 ’25 Climate Solutions Asia Pacific MEA Q4 ‘24 Q4 ‘25 Total CSA ~10% ~35% Total CSAME (0 – 5%) 5 – 10% Residential 10 – 15% (0 – 5%) China region5 ~(30%) 15 – 20% Light commercial (20 – 25%) ~70% Balance of s
Slide 17: FY 2026 Organic sales guidance
FY 2026 Organic sales1 guidance Sales 2025 Actual 2026 Outlook Climate Solutions Americas (CSA) $10,470M ~LSD Residential (HSD) (HSD) Light commercial (20%) (HSD) Commercial3 >25% MT Climate Solutions Europe (CSE) $5,044M ~LSD Residential and Light commercial (MSD) Flat Commercial LSD MSD Climate So
Slide 18: FY 2026 Profit and cash guidance
FY 2026 Profit and cash guidance 2025 Actual 2026 Outlook Adj. operating profit and margin Adj. op. profit Adj. op. profit margin expansion Adj. op. profit margin % CS Americas $2,150M 25 – 50 bps 20.5% CS Europe $444M ~100 bps 8.8% CS Asia Pacific Middle East & Africa $448M Flat – 25 bps 13.4% CS T
Slide 19: FY 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance bridge
FY 2026 Adjusted EPS1 guidance bridge ~$0.15 ~($0.05) ~$0.15 ~($0.05) NCI Tax ~19% Riello exit Volume / mix Share repo Price $2.59 Net productivity ~$2.80 Investments 2025 Adj. EPS Operational Net interest Tax rate / shares NCI / other 2026E Adj. EPS outlook 1. See appendix for additional informatio
Slide 20: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 21: Q4 2025 Adjusted EPS bridge
Q4 2025 Adjusted EPS1 bridge ($0.21) ($0.02) $0.04 ($0.01) Volume / mix $0.54 Net productivity $0.34 Q4 2024 Adj. EPS Operational Net interest Tax rate / other Share count Q4 2025 Adj. EPS 1. See appendix for additional information regarding non-GAAP measures 2025 Q4 Earnings | February 5, 2026 21
Slide 22: FY 2025 Adjusted EPS bridge
FY 2025 Adjusted EPS1 bridge ($0.21) $0.15 $0.06 $0.03 Volume / mix Price / mix-up $2.56 $2.59 Net productivity ~ Tariffs, net Stranded cost elimination FY 2024 Adj. EPS Operational Net interest Tax rate / other Share count FY 2025 Adj. EPS 1. See appendix for additional information regarding non-GA
Slide 23: Additional items
Additional items 2025 Actual 2026 Outlook Average shares outstanding (diluted) 862.4M ~833M Corporate expenses / eliminations and other $202M ~$240M Interest expense, net1 $364M ~$400M Adjusted effective tax rate1 20.4% ~19% Non-controlling interest $103M ~$120M Capital expenditures $392M ~$500M Dep
Slide 24: Use and definitions of non-GAAP financial measures
Use and definitions of non-GAAP financial measures Carrier reports its financial results in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States ("GAAP"). We supplement the reporting of our financial information determined under GAAP with certain non-GAAP financial informati
Slide 25: Segment summary
Segment summary (Unaudited) Three Months Ended Year Ended December 31, December 31, (In millions) 2025 2024 2025 2024 Segment net sales Climate Solutions Americas $ 1,935 $ 2,341 $ 10,470 $ 10,527 Climate Solutions Europe 1,332 1,252 5,044 4,984 Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa 7
Slide 26: Organic sales reconciliation
Organic sales reconciliation Three Months Ended December 31, 2025 Compared with Three Months Ended December 31, 2024 (Unaudited) Factors Contributing to Total % change in Net Sales FX Acquisitions / Organic Translation Divestitures, net Other Total Climate Solutions Americas (17)% —% —% —% (17)% Cli
Slide 27: Earnings before income taxes reconciliation
Earnings before income taxes reconciliation (Unaudited) Three Months Ended Year Ended December 31, December 31, (In millions) 2025 2024 2025 2024 Reconciliation to Earnings before income taxes Segment operating profit $ 495 $ 707 $ 3,494 $ 3,743 Corporate and other (40) (29) (202) (201) Restructurin
Slide 28: Adjusted operating profit reconciliation
Adjusted operating profit reconciliation (Unaudited) Three Months Ended Year Ended December 31, December 31, (In millions) 2025 2024 2025 2024 Reconciliation of Segment operating profit to Adjusted operating profit Climate Solutions Americas $ 168 $ 435 $ 2,150 $ 2,323 Climate Solutions Europe 120 8
Slide 29: Q4 and full year 2025 EPS reconciliation
Q4 and full year 2025 EPS reconciliation (Unaudited) Three Months Ended December 31, 2025 Year Ended December 31, 2025 (In millions, except per share amounts) Reported Adjustments Adjusted Reported Adjustments Adjusted Net sales $ 4,837 $ — $ 4,837 $ 21,747 $ — $ 21,747 Operating profit $ 101 354 a
Slide 30: Q4 and full year 2024 EPS reconciliation
Q4 and full year 2024 EPS reconciliation (Unaudited) Three Months Ended December 31, 2024 Year Ended December 31, 2024 (In millions, except per share amounts) Reported Adjustments Adjusted Reported Adjustments Adjusted Net sales $ 5,148 $ — $ 5,148 $ 22,486 $ — $ 22,486 Operating profit $ 774 (96) a
Slide 31: Free cash flow reconciliation
Free cash flow reconciliation (Unaudited) Three Months Ended Year Ended December 31, December 31, (In millions) 2025 2024 2025 2024 Net cash flows provided by operating activities $ 1,040 $ 132 $ 2,513 $ 563 Less: Capital expenditures - continuing operations (131) (217) (392) (519) Less: Capital exp
Slide 32: Net debt reconciliation
Net debt reconciliation (Unaudited) As of December 31, (In millions) 2025 2024 Long-term debt $ 11,365 $ 11,026 Short-term borrowings and current portion of long-term debt 468 1,336 Less: Cash and cash equivalents 1,555 3,969 Net debt $ 10,278 $ 8,393 2025 Q4 Earnings | February 5, 2026 32
Slide 33: For the World We Share
For the World We Share