Elia Group Sa/nv · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group Sa/nv — Investor Presentation (June 2024)
76 slides from Elia Group Sa/nv's investor presentation, Jun 10, 2024
Slide 1: Users' Group Plenary meeting, June 10th
Users’ Group Plenary meeting of the Elia Users’ Group, Monday, June 10th
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval report 01/03/2024 2. Reorganization of the working groups 3. Incompressibility 4. Grid User Flex for Congestion Management 5. Feedback working groups 2
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval report 01/03/2024 2. Reorganization of the working groups 3. Incompressibility 4. Grid User Flex for Congestion Management 5. Feedback working groups 3
Slide 4: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval report 01/03/2024 2. Reorganization of the working groups 3. Incompressibility 4. Grid User Flex for Congestion Management 5. Feedback working groups 4
Slide 5: Users' Group – Reorganization working groups
Users’ Group – Reorganization working groups
Slide 6: Proposal working groups
Proposal working groups Chairman: J. Voet Chairman: A. Torreele Chairmen: W.Geelen & B.Genêt S: W. Mennen/F. Dessain S: T. Van der Vorst S: G. Valentin WG Adequacy WG Energy Solutions WG Grid • Adequacy Solutions • European Market • Flexibility Studies • Flexibility • System Services Design - DiMax
Slide 7: WG Energy Solutions – roadmap as from 01/09/2024
WG Energy Solutions – roadmap as from 01/09/2024 Chairman: Alexandre Torreele Secretary: Thomas Van der Vorst FLEXIBILITY • DiMax - Wave 2 – Q3 & Q4 2024 - T&C BRP revision for faster imbalance settlement - Implementation of facilitation tools for BRP services - Continue investigations with power ex
Slide 8: WG Grid – roadmap as from 01/09/2024
WG Grid – roadmap as from 01/09/2024 Chairmen: Walter Geelen & Benjamin Genêt Secretary: Guillaume Valentin • European Market : - Forward, Day-Ahead, Intraday - Design and implementation of congestion management and market coupling solutions - Evolution of the regulatory framework 2024: IDCC and IDA
Slide 9: WG Adequacy & Belgian Grid – roadmap as from 01/09/2024
WG Adequacy & Belgian Grid – roadmap as from 01/09/2024 Chairman: Jan Voet Chairman: Jan Voet Secretary: William Mennen Secretary: François Dessain • Adequacy and Flexibility Study - Scenario and parameter determination for Adequacy & Flexibility Study ‘25 • Contracts - Update on external studies -
Slide 10: Thank you.
Thank you.
Slide 11: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval report 01/03/2024 2. Reorganization of the working groups 3. Incompressibility 4. Grid User Flex for Congestion Management 5. Feedback working groups 11
Slide 12: Incompressibility
Incompressibility
Slide 13: Walter Geelen
UG 10-06-2024 Walter Geelen
Slide 14: Incompressibility Risk – Executive Summary
Incompressibility Risk – Executive Summary The concern about incompressibility follows a combination of two separate challenges: A. Ability of the market to manage well ‘predicted’ situations of high renewable generation. It is related to the ability of market parties to maintain a balanced portfoli
Slide 15: Incompressibility Risk - Needs
Incompressibility Risk - Needs Challenge A High Renewables generation – Challenge B Forecasting Error – Export Need Balancing Flexibility Need P75 Real-Time Vs Day-Ahead Forecast Or unexpected outage like Nemo Link Ltd in export Summer Outlook On the 7/4 events 1 out of 4 week-end (P75), Belgium wil
Slide 16: Incompressibility Risk: Beyond Market Flexibility Technical Flexibility
Incompressibility Risk: Beyond Market Flexibility Technical Flexibility Market Flexibility: Incompressibility risks at Day-Ahead stage: >7GW export need (1 out of 4 WE) • Same EU export need at the same time (NL 26GW PV & FR 5-10GW more NUC available) • Complex EU Technical Capacity Calculation Pr
Slide 17: Incompressibility Risk: Where is Technical Flexibility Process located?
Incompressibility Risk : Where is Technical Flexibility Process located? • Optimized outage planning • Additional export capacity via Dynamic Line rating Elia • Additional export capacity via PST range in case of extreme situations • Efficient price signal 0. Communication to Market Party • Via Exte
Slide 18: Incompressibility Risk: Technical Flexibility Process (with measurement)
Incompressibility Risk : Technical Flexibility Process (with measurement) Frequency Market Technical 50,20 Hz 50,15 Hz (a) At 50,10 Hz, monitoring & alignment call with Frequency 50,10 Hz Leader at the EU level (a) (b) 50,00 Hz (b) At 50,20 Hz frequency drops to 49,80 Hz due to loss of +/- 11 GW of
Slide 19: Alexandre Torreele
UG 10-06-2024 Alexandre Torreele
Slide 20: Action Plan
Action Plan • Communication (WG Bal, WG EMD SO) – Summer Outlook & Key Events Early • Reinforce (common) understanding • Publication Forecasting & Balancing: PV/Wind,.. Balancing Warning identification is Awareness & • Reaction and action plan of BRPs causing issue key for market transparency • Moni
Slide 21: Awareness & Short-term Impact: Market & Technical solutions
Awareness & Short-term Impact: Market & Technical solutions for incompressibility Investigate Price Signals Imbalance Prices & Prospection for Extra Volumes Extra capacity Summer Outlook Contact all BRPs to Outage planning via DLR and the in Users’ Group raise awareness management optimization of ex
Slide 22: Conclusion
Conclusion Starting point - BRP must respect their legal obligations & so must solve the problem in the market (= only efficient & sustainable solution). On the short-term for Summer 2024, Elia - Maintains the High Risk of Incompressibility procedure & updates it by 22/5/2024 (Reminder in annex) - U
Slide 23: Projection 2024 and beyond: no large improvements expected before 2026
Projection 2024 and beyond : no large improvements expected before 2026 While renewable generation increases, the amount of hours with low prices and excess generation will continue to increase Current best estimates a yearly increase of PV of around 900 MW – 1200 MW per year. Also our in neig
Slide 24: Reminder
Reminder S See
Slide 25: Exceptional Balancing Measure (High Risk of Incompressibility Procedure)
Exceptional Balancing Measure (High Risk of Incompressibility Procedure) High Risk Of Incompressibility
Slide 26: Thank you.
Thank you.
Slide 27: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval report 01/03/2024 2. Reorganization of the working groups 3. Incompressibility 4. Grid User Flex for Congestion Management 5. Feedback working groups 27
Slide 28: Grid User flex for Congestion Management (GUFlex4CM)
Grid User flex for Congestion Management (GUFlex4CM) A. Weynants / B. Genêt
Slide 29: Design Note: Scope and Trigger
Design Note : Scope and Trigger Design Note content Next steps GUFlex4CM - Plenary session 10.06.2024 29
Slide 30: 1. Design note – Scope and Triggers
1. Design note Scope and Triggers
Slide 31: Design note: Scope and Triggers
Design note : Scope and Triggers Design Note Scope The note aims at describing a design related to the evolution of connections with flexible access and evolution of client connection processes in the mid/short term and with a focus on the federal grid. Those are fundamental aspects and processes
Slide 32: 2. Content
lia 2. Content
Slide 33: Design note: content (1/4)
Design note : content (1/4) 1. Introduction 2. Regulatory framework 3. Early connection – notion of Temporary Period 4. Clarification on connection process : studies & capacity reservation 5. Procedures and criteria for client-connection studies 6. Guarantees provided to Grid Users that have a conne
Slide 34: Design note content (2/4)
Design note content (2/4) 1. Introduction • More insight on the context of connection with flexible access, trigger and scope of the note and expected further evolution 2. Regulatory framework • Overview of the existing federal, regional and European regulatory framework related to connections with
Slide 35: Design note content
Design note content 4. Clarification of connections processes : studies and capacity reservation • Analysis of the current situation and proposition of improvements in order to streamline those processes and avoid “sleeping” reserved capacities • Main proposed changes : applying a serial approach fo
Slide 36: Design note content
Design note content 7. Clarification of operational principles • How connections with flexible access are considered in the operational congestion management process. • Before having reached their cap, connection with flexible access are considered first in the merit order. After having reached thei
Slide 37: 3. Next steps
lia 3. Next steps
Slide 38: Timeline for next steps
Timeline for next steps End of Public Consultation on Design note Jul 5 Proposition of Code of Conduct amendment and implementation plan Incentive report sent to Start of Public Consultation on Design note submitted to the CREG the CREG May 31 Sep 20 Dec 31 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2024 Today
Slide 39: Thank you.
Thank you.
Slide 40: Agenda
Agenda 1. Approval report 01/03/2024 2. Reorganization of the working groups 3. Incompressibility 4. Grid User Flex for Congestion Management 5. Feedback working groups 40
Slide 41: Feedback working groups
Feedback working groups 1/3/2024 |
Slide 42: WG Adequacy
USERS’ GROUP sia | Elia Group. WG Adequacy
Slide 43: WG Adequacy – Q2 2024 Meetings
WG Adequacy – Q2 2024 Meetings Update on the public consultation on Capacity Contract 29/03/2024 Info on authorization for large-scale batteries Feedback on regulatory framework WG #28 CRM calibration: Scenario, data and sensitivities for 2026- 2027/Y-1, 2027-2028/Y-2 and 2029-2030/Y-4 12/4 WG #29 I
Slide 44: Main Topics
Main Topics • Overview of main scenario’s & sensitivities that are publicly consulted upon for the calibration of 2026-2027/Y-1, 2027-2028/Y-2 and 2029-2030/Y-4 auctions. • Public consultation of CRM Capacity Contract V4 (to be approved by CREG before bid submission in the auction) : Limited changes
Slide 45: Launch of 2024 Y-1 & Y-4 CRM Auction Operations
Launch of 2024 Y-1 & Y-4 CRM Auction Operations • ADEMAR Platform is ready and open for 2024 Auction operations (Application Form, Prequalification & Financial Security): https://ademar.elia.be/ • As communicated on Synergrid’s website, CRM is open for low voltage participation in upcoming Y-1 & Y-4
Slide 46: WG Belgian Grid
USERS’ GROUP sia | Elia Group. WG Belgian Grid
Slide 47: WGBG March 29th (1/2)
WGBG March 29th (1/2) 1. Grid User Flex for Congestion management – status • 3 workshops previously organized (1 more to go on 14/06) • Fundamental principles • Methodology for client connection studies, reporting • Guarantees given to GU • Operational flex activations, Q/A public consultation • Pub
Slide 48: WGBG March 29th (2/2) Connection Process EDS/EOS
WGBG March 29th (2/2) 2. Connection - Proces EDS/EOS/Capacity reservation – discussion • Elia seeks stakeholder’s recommendations on new process around EOS/EDS on: subjects priorities, delays, limitations, exchange of information, eventual charge,… Goal of the revision: Filling gaps in the regulat
Slide 49: WGBG March 29th (2/2) Connection Contract
WGBG March 29th (2/2) 3. Connection Contract • Feedback Public Consultation • Liability clauses • Sent for approval to regulators on May 31st Presentation title 49
Slide 50: WG Balancing — Go-live PIM
USERS’ GROUP sia | Elia Group. WG Balancing — Go-live PIM
Slide 51: iCAROS phase 1 & MARI Local go live confirmed & effective
iCAROS phase 1 & MARI Local go live confirmed & effective • As of May 8, 2024, the BSP were able to submit mFRR Capacity Bids for a delivery date on May 22, 2024 • As of May 10, 2024, the OPA were able to submit an Outage Plan for a delivery date on May 22, 2024 • As of May 15, 2024, the SA were abl
Slide 52: iCAROS phase 1 & MARI Local go live
iCAROS phase 1 & MARI Local go live This go live is the materialization of a long trajectory and intense work & interactions with the Market Parties in each step of the projects including: • Design updates of the different products & processes • Outage planning • Scheduling • Redispatching • mFRR •
Slide 53: iCAROS phase 1 & MARI Local go live
iCAROS phase 1 & MARI Local go live • Consultation on the updated regulated documents • T&C OPA • T&C SA • Coordination Rules • T&C mFRR • T&C BRP • Balancing Rules • Intense implementation trajects on ELIA and Market parties side • Business testing protocols with Market parties ELIA wants to take t
Slide 54: What is next?
What is next ? The PIM Roadmap includes the following major milestones (*) • Local aFRR Go live • iCAROS phase 1 Go live • Local mFRR Go live • Connection to MARI • Connection to PICASSO (together with some further aFRR Design evolutions) 54 (*) ICAROS phase 2 is part of a separate roadmap given its
Slide 55: Reminder WG BAL 21/05/24 MARI Connection
Reminder WG BAL 21/05/24 MARI Connection • In December 2023, the consolidated planning for MARI, iCAROS Phase 1 and PICASSO was updated for the go live dates of MARI & ICAROS as follows : • Local go live of the new mFRR bidding and iCAROS phase 1 Mid May 2024 • Connection to EU mFRR balancing energy
Slide 56: Appendix
-€ elia Appendix
Slide 57: Grid Solutions 2024-2027: iCaros
Grid Solutions 2024-2027: iCaros - Develop a grid that can host the increase of RES and demand in time while rationalizing the (investment) costs for society 2020- 2023 2024 2025 > 2026 Icaros phase I Important note: timings phase II are provisional Go live in Q2 2024 • Delayed effective go-live of
Slide 58: WG Balancing
USERS’ GROUP sia WG Balancing
Slide 59: WG Balancing 27/03/2023 & 21/05/2024
WG Balancing 27/03/2023 & 21/05/2024 Overview of 2023 balancing volumes and costs – General market evolution: 2023 return to pre-crisis (2021) level for electricity and gas prices. – AS Balancing costs have evolved accordingly. This results in a cost decrease, but with nuances per product. – Overall
Slide 60: WG Balancing 27/03/2023 & 21/05/2024
WG Balancing 27/03/2023 & 21/05/2024 T&C BSP aFRR and Balancing Rules Targeted entry into force amendments T&C Targeted entry into force Flexibility BSP aFRR related to aFRR design evolutions Documents release 2a (incl. LV) 2024 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2024 Today LV DPs (conn
Slide 61: WG Balancing – Incentives follow-up
WG Balancing 27/03/2023 & 21/05/2024 – Incentives follow-up Smart Testing Calibration to be done Features Weight Bid 1 Bid 2 Bid 3 Smart testing uses two scoring systems to select the bids for an availability test: Volume 60 MW 30 MW 10 MW • A scoring system to select the CCTU for an availability te
Slide 62: WG CCMD
USERS’ GROUP sia | Elia Group. WG CCMD
Slide 63: WG CCMD 18/03/2024 & 21/05/2024
WG CCMD 18/03/2024 & 21/05/2024 DiMaX – The historical analysis of the financial guarantees shows that at times, the guarantees were too low, and at other times, the guarantees were too high. – Elia proposes to: – Investigate how to reduce the contractual invoice lead time - cfr . DiMaX – Determine
Slide 64: Real-Time Price design note - feedback of public consultation
Real-Time Price design note - feedback of public consultation Overall trend in the reactions Supporting the decentral balancing model (co-existence of explicit and implicit balancing) Welcoming the initiative to work on a clear and robust real-time price signal But requesting for more clarity
Slide 65: Elia Group Hackathon 2024 - Results
Elia Group Hackathon 2024 - Results – On the proposed use-cases, the Real-Time Price leads to a reduction of commodity costs – TraXes succeeded the crash-test: no bug or delay. Presentation title 65
Slide 66: RTP parallel run: a 3-step approach from theory to practice
RTP parallel run : a 3-step approach from theory to practice Imbalance price forecast* : RTP // run @ large scale: * Subject to quality check POC RTP formula @ small scale: Presentation title 6 66 6
Slide 67: Sustainability solutions: Elia's current initiatives
Sustainability solutions: Elia’s current initiatives focus on the hourly timeframe. As Elia we want to support and engage with industry in their sustainability challenges, and foster new innovation Yearly Hourly (24/7) Guarantees of Granular Market-based 1 Energy Track Origin (GO) Certificates (GC)
Slide 68: WG SO&EMD (incl TF PEZ)
USERS’ GROUP sia | Elia Group. WG SO&EMD (incl TF PEZ)
Slide 69: Task Force Princess Elisabeth Zone
Task Force Princess Elisabeth Zone Status June 2024
Slide 70: Key milestones of the Task Force Princess Elisabeth Zone
Overview of key milestones of the Task Force Princess Elisabeth Zone Elia communication process Elia organized couples of Task Force Princess Elisabeth Zone and ad-hoc workshop to present, 2022-2024 Step 1 - Task Forces TF PEZ and ad-hoc workshops inform and engage stakeholders with call of feedback
Slide 71: Overview of adaptations on key reactions received following public consultation
Adaptation Overview of adaptations on key reactions received following public Clarification/additional info consultation Task Force Princess Elisabeth Zone No change/additional justification Impact/importance for offshore wind tender Connection requirements Flex access Single vs split node operation
Slide 72: EMD-SO WG
elia EMD-SO WG Status June 2024
Slide 73: EMD-SO WG 04/06
EMD-SO WG 04/06 System Operations 1. Summer outlook & incompressibility risks 2. Status black-out phones European Market Design 3. Core IDCC go-live 4. Forward market: focus FR-BE border and the way forward 5. CACM 2.0 status (Structural congestion, TAG) AoB: • Plan a workshop on CEP70. Title of
Slide 74: P75 2023 vs 2024
P75 2023 vs 2024 2023 2024 No export need 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 July 1 1827 2167 2310 2297 2101 1512 960 917 1734 2959 3929 4847 5335 5669 5659 5292 4292 3520 2527 1606 949 175 516 983 2 1364 1662 1789 1782 1616 1121 707 766 1653 2921 3923 4827 5301 5615 55
Slide 75: Core IDCC_B Go-Live on 28th of May – Debrief & First results
Core IDCC_B Go-Live on 28th of May – Debrief & First results Go-Live Successful • After an External Parallel run of 540 Days, the Core IDCC(b) process, from a process point of view, went live successfully on 28/05/2024. • The process runs smooth, however minor delays in publication are observed (pub
Slide 76: Thank you.
Thank you.