Exelon Corporation · NASDAQ:EXC
Exelon — UBS Natural Gas, Electric Power & Coal Conference 2008
53 slides from Exelon's conference presentation, Mar 6, 2008
Slide 1: UBS Natural Gas, Electric Power & Coal Conference
UBS Natural Gas, Electric Power & Coal Conference Lost Pines, TX March 6, 2008 Exhibit 99.1
Slide 2: The Exelon Companies
’07 Earnings: $2,331M ’08E Earnings: $2,060 - $2,260M ’07 EPS: $3.45 ’08E EPS: $3.15 - $3.45 Total Debt (1) : $2.5B Credit Rating (2) : BBB+ The Exelon Companies Nuclear, Fossil, Hydro & Renewable Generation Power Marketing ‘07 Operating Earnings: $2.9B ‘07 EPS: $4.32 ‘08E Operating Earnings: $2.6 -
Slide 3: Multi-Regional, Diverse Company
Multi-Regional, Diverse Company Note: Megawatts based on Generation’s ownership as of 12/31/07, using annual mean ratings for nuclear units (excluding Salem) and summer ratings for Salem and the fossil and hydro units. Midwest Capacity Owned: 11,388 MW Contracted: 4,271 MW Total: 15,659 MW ERCOT/Sou
Slide 4: 2008 Outlook
$0.55 - $0.60 $3.15 - $3.45 $0.35 - $0.40 We expect first quarter 2008 operating earnings to represent 21-24% of Exelon’s 2008 full year operating earnings. 2008 Outlook (1) $4.00 - $4.40 2008 EPS Guidance (1) Operating EPS: $4.00 - $4.40 GAAP EPS: $3.70 - $4.10 ComEd PECO Exelon Generation HoldCo/O
Slide 5: 2008 Projected Sources and Uses of Cash
$4,450 $2,740 $920 $700 Cash Flow from Operations (1) ($3,120) ($1,600) ($390) ($1,000) Capital Expenditures $1,220 $1,240 ($50) $300 Net Financing (excluding Dividend) (2) $2,550 $2,380 $480 $0 Cash available before Dividend ($1,310) Dividend (3) $1,240 Cash available after Dividend Exelon (4) ($ i
Slide 6: O&M and CapEx Expectations
CapEx O&M 3-4% $1,000 $1,040 2-3% $1,020 $1,083 1-2% $390 $339 2-3% $650 $630 Exelon (1) NM (2) NM (2) ~15% 2008-2012 CAGR $3,120 $870 $730 2008E $2,674 $696 $573 Other Nuclear Fuel 2-3% 2-3% 2008-2012 CAGR $4,270 $2,620 2008E $4,203 $2,469 Exelon (1) Note: Reflects operating O&M data and excludes D
Slide 7: Exelon
Exelwn.
Slide 8: Available Cash after Dividend
Available Cash after Dividend (§ By S&P "BBB" Range tor FFOUDebt Ratio: 20% to 30% (26%) Foard Gas Prices a5 of TOS? (25%) Gas Price Sensitivity
Slide 9: Slide 9
Slide 10: ComEd, An Exelon Company
___ Exelon. ComEd. An Exelon Company
Slide 11: ComEd 2008 Operating EPS Contribution
ComEd’s operating earnings are expected to increase in 2008 primarily due to execution of its Regulatory Recovery Plan ComEd 2008 Operating EPS Contribution $200M RNF O&M Depreciation / Amortization Interest Expense Other $0.35 - $0.40 $0.30 $0.19 $0.04 ($0.02) $(0.03) (1) $220M - $260M (2) $(0.08)
Slide 12: ComEd
ComEd. ‘An Exelon Company
Slide 13: ComEd
ComEd. ‘An Exelon Company
Slide 14: Annual updating and true-up virtually eliminates regulatory lag
16 The combination of annual updating and true-up virtually eliminates regulatory lag Formula Transmission Rate Annual Update Process • Annual filing by May 15th will update the current year revenue requirement and true-up prior year to actual: – Update current year – Estimate current year revenue r
Slide 15: Financial Swap Agreement
Financial Swap Agreement • Financial Swap Agreement between ComEd and Exelon Generation promotes price stability for residential and small business customers • Designed to dovetail with ComEd’s remaining auction contracts for energy, increasing in volume as the auction contracts expire – Will cover
Slide 16: Slide 16
Slide 17: PECO 2008 Operating EPS Contribution
PECO’s operating earnings are expected to decrease in 2008 primarily due to increasing CTC amortization expense PECO 2008 Operating EPS Contribution $507M (1) $360M - $400M $0.75 ($0.08) $0.01 ($0.03) ($0.06) $0.55 - $0.60 RNF O&M CTC Amortization / Depreciation Other NOTE: Refer to “Key Assumptions
Slide 18: PECO
=> PECO.
Slide 19: Slide 19
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Slide 21: Pennsylvania Snapshot
Current State of Play Positions of Stakeholders PECO Actions Pennsylvania Snapshot • Governor Rendell’s “Energy Independence Strategy”, introduced in February 2007, continues to be focus of legislative activity. Legislation aimed at reducing energy costs, increasing clean energy resources, reducing
Slide 22: PECO
=> PECO.
Slide 23: Slide 23
Slide 24: Exelon Generation
Exelon. Exelwn. Generation
Slide 25: Exelon Generation 2008 Operating EPS Contribution
Exelon Generation’s 2008 earnings are impacted primarily by increased planned refueling outages and higher nuclear fuel expense Exelon Generation 2008 Operating EPS Contribution $2,331M (1) $2,060M - $2,260M ($0.09) $(0.15) $0.13 $3.15 - $3.45 RNF O&M Other (2) $30M +/- 500 Btu/KWh ATC Heat Rate $5.
Slide 26: Exelon Generation
___ Exelon. Generation
Slide 27: Slide 27
Slide 28: Slide 28
Slide 29: Slide 29
Slide 30: World-Class Nuclear Operator
Average Capacity Factor Range of Fleet 2-Yr Avg Capacity Factor (2002-2006) Sustained production excellence World-Class Nuclear Operator 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Exelon Industry Note: Exelon data prior to 2000 represent ComEd-only nuclear fleet. Sources: Platt’s, Nuclear News, Nuc
Slide 31: Positively Exposed to Market Dynamics
Reserve Margins Declining Natural Gas Prices Remaining High Construction Costs Escalating Carbon Legislation Progressing -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% PJM-West PJM-East NI-Hub ERCOT NYMEX (1) Positively Exposed to Market Dynamics Note: Illustrative estimate. Overnight, all-in capital cost
Slide 32: Exelon Generation
Exelon. Generation
Slide 33: Exelon Generation
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Slide 34: Exelon Generation
Exelon. Generation
Slide 35: Exelon Generation
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Slide 36: Effectively Managing Nuclear Fuel Costs
Projected Exelon Uranium Demand Components of Fuel Expense in 2008 Projected Exelon Average Uranium Cost vs. Market Projected Total Nuclear Fuel Spend 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Effectively Managing Nuclear Fuel Costs Enrichment 39% Fabrication 17% Nuclear Waste Fund 22% Tax/Intere
Slide 37: Exelon Generation
Exelon. Generation i
Slide 38: The value of our portfolio resides in our nuclear fleet
41,350 41,100 31,800 33,800 Total Supply (GWh) Total Sales (GWh) The value of our portfolio resides in our nuclear fleet Total Portfolio Characteristics 23,200 23,100 5,100 120,000 125,100 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2007A 2008E Actual Hedges & Open Position ComEd Swap IL Auction PECO Loa
Slide 39: Reliability Pricing Model Auction
2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009 2009 / 2010 2010 / 2011 Region not applicable for this auction period PJM RPM Auction ($/MW-day) Exelon Generation Participation within PJM Reliability Pricing Model (1) Reliability Pricing Model Auction 40.80 197.67 111.92 174.29 174.29 148.80 102.04 191.32 191.32 Rest of Ma
Slide 40: Exelon Generation
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Slide 41: Exelon Generation
Exelon. Generation
Slide 42: Exelon Generation
Exelwn. Generation
Slide 43: Current Market Prices
Current Market Prices 1. 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 are actual settled prices. 2. Real Time LMP (Locational Marginal Price). 3. Next day over-the-counter market. 4. Average NYMEX settled prices. 5. 2008 information is a combination of actual prices through 2/29/08 and market prices for the balance of
Slide 44: Market Price Snapshot
40 Market Price Snapshot As of February 27, 2008. Source: OTC quotes and electronic trading system. Quotes are daily. 2008 prices are Mar-Dec. Forward NYMEX Natural Gas PJM-West and Ni-Hub On-Peak Forward Prices PJM-West On-Peak Implied Heat Rate Ni-Hub On-Peak Implied Heat Rate 2008 PJM-West 2009 P
Slide 45: Market Price Snapshot
41 Market Price Snapshot As of February 27, 2008. Source: OTC quotes and electronic trading system. Quotes are daily. 2008 prices are Mar-Dec. Houston Ship Channel Natural Gas Forward Prices ERCOT North ATC Forward Prices ERCOT North ATC v. Houston Ship Channel Implied Heat Rate 7.1 7.6 8.1 8.6 9.1
Slide 46: Advancing Exelon's Low-Carbon Strategy
Advancing Exelon’s Low-Carbon Strategy • Lobbying in favor of climate change legislation that is national, mandatory and economy-wide • Taking voluntary action to reduce our greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 8% from 2001 levels by 2008 • Developing a comprehensive low-carbon energy strategy – Goal will
Slide 47: Exelon and Federal Climate Change Legislation
Exelon and Federal Climate Change Legislation • Actively involved in the climate debate in Washington, D.C. • Lobbying in favor of enacting legislation that is national , mandatory and economy-wide • Favors a cap-and-trade system over a carbon tax • Believes that any allocation scheme should include
Slide 48: Comparison of Legislative Climate Change Targets
Exelon. Comparison of Legislative Climate Change Targets 14000 in the 110" Congress, 1990-2050 December 7,2007 12000 [~ — ‘ Bingaman-Specter — 10000 usiness as usual + anger cap through 2030) - * Rowmcomelemertary 8000 policies y * conditional target == Historical emissions g fo} oO ra 2 Z @ € < 600
Slide 49: Exelon
Exelon.
Slide 50: Key Assumptions
Key Assumptions 37.7 1.2 2.6 23.86 115.37 6.65 6.84 45.47 7.68 7.78 59.76 6.95 148,307 41,343 (5) 189,650 94.5 2007A 37.2 1.6 1.2 82.40 169.10 5.60 8.40 47.00 6.60 9.50 62.90 8.50 148,200 41,100 (5) 189,300 93.1 2008E 6.56 8.41 Chicago City Gate Gas Price ($/mmBtu) 7.31 9.67 Tetco M3 Gas Price ($/mm
Slide 51: FFO Calculation and Ratios
FFO Calculation and Ratios FFO Calculation = FFO - PECO Transition Bond Principal Paydown + Gain on Sale, Extraordinary Items and Other Non-Cash Items (3) + Change in Deferred Taxes + Depreciation, amortization (including nucl fuel amortization), AFUDC/Cap. Interest Add back non-cash items: Net Inco
Slide 52: GAAP Earnings Reconciliation
GAAP Earnings Reconciliation Year Ended December 31, 2007 (5) - - - (5) Settlement of a Tax Matter at Generation Related to Sithe - - - Georgia Power Tolling Agreement (130) - - - (130) Termination of State Line PPA - - - City of Chicago Settlement (11) - - - (11) Sale of Generation’s investments in
Slide 53: GAAP EPS Reconciliation
(1) Amounts shown per Exelon share and represent contributions to Exelon's EPS. (0.01) - - - (0.01) Settlement of a tax matter at Generation related to Sithe (0.04) (0.08) - - 0.04 Non-cash deferred tax items (0.14) (0.14) - - - Investments in synthetic fuel-producing facilities 0.41 - - 0.03 0.38 2
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