Agl Energy Limited · ASX:AGL
Agl Energy — Gas 2015 ENA Forum
11 slides from Agl Energy's conference presentation, June 2015
Slide 1: Gas 2015 ENA Forum
Gas 2015 ENA Forum June 2015| AGL External
Slide 2: Some background – why all the discussion about gas?
2 › Some background – why all the discussion about gas?
Slide 3: East Coast Aggregate Gas Demand
3 East Coast Aggregate Gas Demand East Coast Gas Demand (PJ/a) 800 700 TAS QLD 600 NSW SA 500 VIC 400 300 200 100 0 Source: AGL Energy, Core Energy, EnergyQuest, esaa. > Gas 2015 ENA Forum > AGL External > June 2015
Slide 4: Aggregate demand 2000-2018f
4 Aggregate demand 2000-2018f East Coast Gas 3x increase in aggregate demand Demand (PJ/a) over a three-year window 2,500 QLD LNG TAS 2,100 QLD 2,000 NSW SA VIC 1,468 1,500 973 1,000 694 500 0 > Gas 2015 ENA Forum > AGL External > June 2015
Slide 5: Aggregate gas load forecast for the east coast 2012-2018f
Aggregate gas load forecast for the east coast 5 2012-2018f Aggregate Gas Demand (TJ/d) 8,000 Residential & SME Commercial & Industrial 7,000 Power Generation LNG Train6 LNG Train5 6,000 LNG Train4 LNG Train3 5,000 LNG Train2 LNG Train1 Residential 4,000 Commercial 3,000 & Industrial Power Generatio
Slide 6: GPEM base case model results for the five year period 2014-2018
GPEM base case model results for the five year 6 period 2014-2018 Aggregate Demand (TJ/d) 7,000.0 The first substantive gas supply shortages occur in April 2016 (export volume shortages at the LNG 6,000.0 terminals). The domestic market experiences shortages from May 2016 (in NSW and in 5,000.0 4,00
Slide 7: Constitutional and legal issues
7 Constitutional and legal issues Gas Quantity (PJ/a) 2012 Aggregate Demand (PJ/a) 350 2012 Aggregate Production (PJ/a) 300 140% 250 124% 200 150 100 90% 50 4% - VIC QLD SA NSW Source: EnergyQuest, AGL Energy Ltd > Gas 2015 ENA Forum > AGL External > June 2015
Slide 8: Transparency and information provision
Transparency and information provision 8 Unit Cost Fairview 1-3 120TJ/d ($/GJ) Ballera 90TJ/d Tipton West 26TJ/d 10.00 Meridian 30TJ/d Daandine 58.7TJ/d Spring Gully 300TJ/d Kogan North 12TJ/d 9.00 Pine Hills 150TJ/d Scotia 30TJ/d Argyle/Kenya 100TJ/d Kenya East 185TJ/d 8.00 Berwyndale Sth 60TJ/d Ro
Slide 9: Some other observations?
> Some other observations? SIAGL
Slide 10: Some other observations
10 Some other observations » Contrast with electricity – much discussion about the ongoing revenue adequacy of energy-only market design with other policy overlays » Same gas industry technological developments have facilitated very different outcomes in the US – driven by… ▪ Design of markets?; and
Slide 11: Further information
11 Further information - AGL Applied Economic and Policy Research Working Paper Series available at www.aglblog.com.au - On Twitter (@tanelsonaus) > Gas 2015 ENA Forum > AGL External > June 2015