Airbus Se · EURONEXT:AIR
Airbus — Investor Presentation (July 2021)
34 slides from Airbus's investor presentation, July 2021
Slide 1: Growing Horizons: Global Market Forecast 2017-2036
Growing Horizons Global Market Forecast 2017 - 2036 John Leahy Chief Operating Officer, Customers
Slide 2: Global Market Forecast 2017: Highlights
Global Market Forecast 2017: Highlights vs. % change World Fleet Forecast 2016 2036 GMF16 2016-2036 RPK (trillions) 7.0 16.5 +3.1% 135% Passenger Aircraft Fleet 18,890 40,120 +6.4% 112% New passenger aircraft 34,166 deliveries +1,741 Dedicated Freighters 1,610 2,410 +14.2% 50% New freighter aircraft
Slide 3: 20-year demand for almost 35,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft
20-year demand for almost 35,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft 24,807 single-aisle aircraft +1,277 vs GMF 2016 5.3 8,686 twin-aisle aircraft $US trillion +626 1,406 very large aircraft -74 34,899 new aircraft +1,829 3 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes)
Slide 4: Single-aisle represent 71% of units, and widebodies represent 54% of value
Single-aisle represent 71% of units, and widebodies represent 54% of value Number of aircraft 30,000 24,810 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 8,690 5,000 1,410 0 Single-aisle Twin-aisle Very Large Aircraft % units 71% 25% 4% % value 46% 44% 10% 4 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircr
Slide 5: Fleet in service evolution
Fleet in service evolution Number of aircraft* 45,000 40,000 35,000 22,030 Growth 30,000 20-year 25,000 34,900 new deliveries 20,000 15,000 12,870 Replacement 10,000 20,500 5,000 7,630 Stay - Beginning 2017 2036 New Deliveries 5 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 ton
Slide 6: 2016 was a good year
2016 was a good year Number of countries 142 countries 90 81% of world population 78 80 88% of world GDP 70 64 60 50 42 40 30 20 20 10 0 <0% [0% - 5%] [5% - 10%] >10% % - ASK growth 2015-2016 6 Source: ICAO, OAG, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF
Slide 7: World load factors remain at record levels
World load factors remain at record levels World passenger load factor - % 85% 80% 80% 75% 70% 69% 65% 60% 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 7 Source: ICAO, OAG, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF
Slide 8: Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions
Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions Yearly RPK growth 2016 - 2036 Emerging/Developing China India Middle East Rest of Asia Africa CIS 6.4 billion people +5.8 % Latin America Central Europe in 2016 Advanced Western Europe Israel North America Japan 1 billion people +3.2 % Singapore i
Slide 9: Middle Class to almost double over the next 20 years
Middle Class to almost double over the next 20 years People in Middle Class* (million) Forecast 6,000 4,950 5,000 4,000 3,900 3,000 2,900 3,624 Emerging countries 2,695 2,000 1,950 1,822 1,350 981 1,000 501 322 456 Developing countries 73 144 216 781 828 850 865 859 Advanced countries 0 1996e** 2006
Slide 10: Almost 50% of world's private consumption to come from emerging markets
Almost 50% of world’s private consumption to come from emerging markets World private consumption (trillion 2010 $US) 90 Forecast 80 70 60 46% 50 Emerging/Developing countries 40 34% 30 20 23% Advanced countries 54% 66% 10 77% 0 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 10 Source: IHS E
Slide 11: ~60% of international tourists to be transported by air in 2036
~60% of international tourists to be transported by air in 2036 International tourist arrivals (million) 2,600 2,400 Forecast >2.4bn tourists 2,200 2,000 1,800 Tourism by surface 1,600 (Road , Water, Rail) 1,400 1,200 >1.2bn tourists 1,000 Tourism by Air 800 600 400 200 0 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 20
Slide 12: Low Cost Carrier market penetration has increased significantly since 2006
Low Cost Carrier market penetration has increased significantly since 2006 Low Cost Carrier seats offered on domestic and intra-regional flights (million) Europe-CIS North America x2.6 38m x1.2 25m Asia-Pacific Middle East 2006 2016 x4.8 >39m 2006 2016 x16.4 4m 2006 2016 Latin America Africa 2006 20
Slide 13: ~30% of the people from emerging countries took a flight in 2016
~30% of the people from emerging countries took a flight in 2016… 2016 trips per capita 10 Africa Asia/Pacific CIS Europe 1 Latin America United States, 2016 1.8 trips per capita Middle East North America Bubble size proportional to population China, 2016 0.1 0.4 trips per capita India, 2016 0.1 tri
Slide 14: In 2036, it will be 83%
… in 2036, it will be 83% 2036 trips per capita 10 Africa Asia/Pacific CIS Europe United States, 2036 1 Latin America 2.5 trips per capita China, 2036 Middle East 1.3 trips per capita North America Bubble size proportional to population India, 2036 0.1 0.4 trips per capita 0.01 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 7
Slide 15: Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks
Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks World annual traffic (trillion RPKs) Asian WTC Financial Oil Crisis Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis Crisis Attack SARS Crisis 8 7 6 +60% 5 growth over the last 10 years x2 since 9/11 4 3 2 1 0 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 15 R
Slide 16: Traffic doubles every 15 years
Traffic doubles every 15 years World annual traffic (trillion RPKs) 18 ICAO total traffic Airbus GMF 2017: 4.4% growth p.a. 16 14 x2 12 10 8 x2 6 4 x2 2 0 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 16 RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometre Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2017
Slide 17: Asia-Pacific continues to grow in importance
Asia-Pacific continues to grow in importance Traffic by airline domicile (trillion RPKs) Share of 20-year Share of 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2016 RPKs CAGR 2036 RPKs Asia-Pacific 2016 traffic 2017-2036 traffic 30% 5.6% 38% Europe 26% 3.4% 21% North America 22% 2.6% 16% Middle East 10% 6.1% 13% Latin America 5
Slide 18: Domestic Chinese traffic to become number one
Domestic Chinese traffic to become number one Annual traffic per leg flow Domestic PRC x3.6 Domestic USA x1.5 Western Europe - USA x1.8 Intra-Western Europe x1.6 Western Europe - Middle East x2.5 Domestic Asia Emerging x3.7 Middle East - USA x4.5 Indian Subcontinent - Middle East x3.4 Domestic India
Slide 19: Trend towards densification, especially for Low Cost Carriers
Trend towards densification, especially for Low Cost Carriers All Airlines average single-aisle aircraft capacity per flight LCCs average single-aisle aircraft capacity per flight 170 170 165 160 156 160 155 150 150 150 143 143 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 2006 2011 2016 2006 2011 2016 19
Slide 20: A320 Family cabin enablers can raise seat counts by up to 10%
A320 Family cabin enablers can raise A320 Family seat counts by up to 10% Slim-line Space-Flex Smart-Lav New doors rating Airbus seats New rear galley New lavatory Increased exit limit Cabin-Flex configuration design A321neo new door configuration A319 156 160 seats A320 180 189 seats A321 220
Slide 21: Densification trend
A320 deliveries above 180 seats (% total deliveries) 60% Densification 50% trend 40% Airlines are choosing cabin 30% enablers to increase seat 20% count beyond 180 seats 10% 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Airbus 21
Slide 22: Upsizing
A320 Family deliveries A319 A320 A321 100% 13% 16% 18% 21% 31% Upsizing 80% 37% 41% The single-aisle 60% market continues 74% 73% to move towards 73% 40% 71% 62% higher capacity 57% 59% aircraft 20% 13% 11% 8% 8% 7% 5% 0% 1% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Airbus, End December 2016, inclu
Slide 23: A321 – growing in popularity
A321 – growing in popularity 65% of net orders 41% of deliveries of Airbus single aisles in 2016 were A321s 23
Slide 24: A321neo
Capacity Range Fuel per seat A321neo vs. 737 MAX 10 +10 seats +1,000nm 10% lower A321neo Up to 240 seats & 4,000nm range with unbeatable fuel efficiency 24
Slide 25: A330neo
A330neo … beats the 787 on comfort, fuel and economics at $20m to $25m lower capital cost 25
Slide 26: A350 XWB
A350 XWB 25% lower • operating cost • fuel burn • CO2 emissions Compared to previous generation 26
Slide 27: 10% of all Heathrow passengers
10% of all Heathrow passengers In 2016, 10% of all passengers at London Heathrow travelled on 54 daily A380 flights* * Inbound and outbound 27
Slide 28: A380 new revenue enablers
Upper deck door 3 deactivation* 8 seats A380 new New rear stair Upper deck sidewall stowage removal 14 seats 6 seats revenue enablers New forward stair* 20 seats Over 80 additional seats with same comfort level as current deliveries Economy class at 11-abreast Premium Economy Class at 9-abreast 23 s
Slide 29: Backlog development 2007 - 2016
Backlog development 2007 - 2016 2007 End 2016 Boeing Airbus Boeing Airbus 5,715 2,533 51% 2,455 49% X 2.5 6,874 55% 45% X 2.7 X 2.3 Industry backlog Industry backlog 4,988 aircraft 12,589 aircraft Data to end December 2016
Slide 30: Net market share last 10 years
Net market share last 10 years Boeing Airbus 8,978 9,995 47% 53% Data to end December 2016
Slide 31: Summary: Drivers
Summary Drivers Strong & resilient passenger traffic growth As air transport develops, new drivers become more significant Middle-class to almost double by 2036 31
Slide 32: Summary: Traffic forecast
Summary Traffic forecast Air traffic (RPK) doubles every 15 years Airbus traffic (RPK) forecast to grow 4.4% p.a. 32
Slide 33: Summary: Fleet forecast
Summary Fleet forecast 34,900 new deliveries by 2036: ~34,170 passenger aircraft 730 freighters 40% of new deliveries for replacement, 60% for growth Single-aisle: 71% of units Wide-bodies: 54% of value 33
Slide 34: Summary: Airbus Family
Summary Airbus Family A321 an ideal entry-point into medium to long-haul markets A330neo & A350XWB: the lowest total cost widebody family with superior comfort levels A380: The solution for future traffic growth 34