86 slides from Duke Energy Corporation (holding Company)'s technical presentation, Jun 20, 2024
Slide 1: 2024 Duke Energy Indiana Integrated Resource Plan
2024 Duke Energy Indiana Integrated Resource Plan Stakeholder Meeting 3 June 20, 2024
Slide 2: Welcome
Welcome Stan Pinegar State President, Duke Energy Indiana
Slide 3: Safety
Safety
Slide 4: Location safety
Location safety General Area Evacuation Procedures Evacuation Assembly Areas If you hear or see evacuation alarms in your area: The primary evacuation route is through the lobby Move safely and quickly out of the building. where you entered. The secondary is through the side door at the stairwel
Slide 5: Safety Moment – Sun and Heat
Safety Moment – Sun and Heat Sun Safety Heat Safety 5 tips to protect your skin from the sun: 3 things to remember about heat safety: • Stay in the shade, especially from 10am-4pm • Lightweight, light-colored, • Wear clothing with long-sleeves with UV protection loose-fitting clothing • Wear hats wi
Slide 6: Introductions
(= DUKE SS” ENERGY. ‘BUILDING A SMARTER ENERGY FUTURE ® Introductions
Slide 7: Duke Energy Team
Duke Energy Team Integrated Resource Planning Team Matt Kalemba Nate Gagnon Matt Peterson Emma Goodnow Karen Hall Chris Hixson Josh Paragas Tyler Cook Vice President, Managing Director, Resource Market Strategy & Resource Principal Engineer, Engineer, Resource Engineer, Resource Integrated Resource
Slide 8: Agenda
Agenda
Slide 9: Public Stakeholder Meeting #3 Agenda
Public Stakeholder Meeting #3 Agenda Present | Time Duration Discuss Topic Presenter 9:30 30 - Sign In & Refreshments Stan Pinegar, Duke Energy Indiana State President 10:00 5 5|0 Welcome & Safety Karen Hall, Duke Energy Resource Planning Director 10:05 5 5|0 Meeting Guidelines & Agenda Drew Burczyk
Slide 10: Technical Stakeholder Meeting #3 Agenda
Technical Stakeholder Meeting #3 Agenda Present | Time Duration Discuss Topic Presenter 9:00 5 5|0 Welcome & Safety Karen Hall, Duke Energy Resource Planning Director 9:05 5 5|0 Meeting Guidelines & Agenda Drew Burczyk, Consultant, Resource Planning & Market Assessments, 1898 & Co. 9:10 30 20 | 10 I
Slide 11: Meeting Guidelines
Meeting Guidelines
Slide 12: Meeting Ground Rules
Meeting Ground Rules Respect each other: Help us to collectively uphold respect for each other's experiences and opinions, even in difficult conversations. We need everyone’s wisdom to achieve better understanding and develop robust solutions. Focus on today’s topics: Please respect the scope of tod
Slide 13: Participation
Participation There will be several opportunities throughout the presentation for attendees to actively participate by asking questions, making comments and/or otherwise sharing information. Q&A: Please use the “Q&A” feature, on the menu at the bottom of your screen, to submit questions to the pre
Slide 14: Stakeholder Feedback and Incorporation
Stakeholder Feedback and Incorporation
Slide 15: Stakeholder Feedback Received & Incorporated into Meeting #3 Agenda
Stakeholder Feedback Received & Incorporated into Meeting #3 Agenda Feedback, Question, or Requested Information Section of Today’s Meeting What is the status of the Market Potential Summary? Market Potential Study Can the assumptions for the Market Potential Summary be shared? Market Potential Stud
Slide 16: Additional Feedback Received and Duke Energy Responses
Additional Feedback Received and Duke Energy Responses Feedback, Question, or Requested Information Response/Update Will any future meetings be held in person? Meeting 3 today is a hybrid meeting, with both in person and virtual options. We are currently planning to hold the 5th meeting as a hybrid
Slide 17: Additional Feedback Received and Duke Energy Responses
Additional Feedback Received and Duke Energy Responses Feedback, Question, or Requested Information Response/Update What is the basis for Nuclear SMR costs We have included additional information in the Appendix on SMR cost curves. declining? This includes the cost curve on an in-service year basis
Slide 18: Q&A
Q&A
Slide 19: MISO Modeling – IRP Energy Market Prices (Power Prices)
MISO Modeling – IRP Energy Market Prices (Power Prices)
Slide 20: Power Price Update
Power Price Update Used EnCompass to simulate Horizon Energy developed National Database Made updates to align with IRP assumptions Natural gas price forecast Coal price forecast CO2 tax / policy constraints Relative economics of new resources Unique simulation performed for each IRP S
Slide 21: Q&A
Q&A
Slide 22: Break
(= DUKE SS” ENERGY. ING & SMARTER ENERGY FUTURE ® Break
Slide 23: Incorporation of Clean Air Act 111 in Generation Strategies
Incorporation of Clean Air Act 111 in Generation Strategies
Slide 24: Summary of Options Under EPA CAA 111 Final Rule
Summary of Options Under EPA CAA 111 Final Rule1 Resource Type Option Deadline Considerations Minimum 40% gas burn (16% CO2 emissions Existing Coal Units Modify for gas co-firing 1/1/2030 reduction from 100% coal)2 Must retire by 1/1/2039 Convert to 100% gas fuel 1/1/2030 No mandated retirement date
Slide 25: Incorporation of CAA 111 Compliance Pathways in Generation Strategies
Incorporation of CAA 111 Compliance Pathways in Generation Strategies Retirement Dates in Prior Analysis Generation Strategies include (EOY basis) 111 Compliant - 2024 IRP Generation Strategies “bookend” pathways and a blended pathway. 2023 IRP CPCN Retire Coal Convert Coal Blend #1 Blend #2 TBD Pre
Slide 26: Q&A
Q&A
Slide 27: Initial Preliminary Portfolios
Initial Preliminary Portfolios
Slide 28: Thinking About the IRP Planning Period
Thinking About the IRP Planning Period Iterative resource plan updates 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 Future IRP Filings Immediate future • Typically, less Early 2030s divergence across portfolios, relative to • Increased range of
Slide 29: Results Summary: Preliminary Strategies in Reference Worldview
Results Summary: Preliminary Strategies in Reference Worldview Cumulative Supply-Side Resource Changes (ICAP MW) Energy Mix Over Time 100% Coal 90% 80% Market Solar3 Wind4 Battery5 CC6 CT Converted 70% Retired1 60% Grid Edge / Co-Fired2 50% Hydro MW By January 1, 2030 40% Wind 30% “No 111” (313) --
Slide 30: No CAA 111 (Reference Worldview)
No CAA 111 (Reference Worldview) Preliminary Modeling Capacity Mix (Winter UCAP MW) Annual Energy Mix (TWh) MISO D-LOL Construct 45 8,000 Capacity Contract 40 7,000 Grid Edge Solar 35 Market 6,000 Wind 30 Grid Edge 5,000 Battery Hydro & CHP 25 Hydro 4,000 CT 20 Wind 3,000 CC IGCC 15 Solar 2,000 NG C
Slide 31: CAA 111 Compliant Strategy: Retire Coal Units
CAA 111 Compliant Strategy: Retire Coal Units (Reference Worldview) Preliminary Modeling Capacity Mix (Winter UCAP MW) Annual Energy Mix (TWh) 45 8,000 Capacity Contract MISO D-LOL Construct Grid Edge 40 7,000 Solar 35 6,000 Market Wind 30 Grid Edge 5,000 Battery Hydro & CHP 25 Hydro 4,000 CT 20 Win
Slide 32: CAA 111 Compliant Strategy: Convert Coal Units
CAA 111 Compliant Strategy: Convert Coal Units (Reference Worldview) Preliminary Modeling Capacity Mix (Winter UCAP MW) Annual Energy Mix (TWh) MISO D-LOL Construct 45 8,000 Capacity Contract 40 Grid Edge 7,000 Solar 35 Market 6,000 Wind 30 Grid Edge Battery 5,000 Hydro & CHP 25 Hydro 4,000 CT 20 Wi
Slide 33: CAA 111 Compliant Strategy: Blend 1
CAA 111 Compliant Strategy: Blend 1 (Reference Worldview) Preliminary Modeling Capacity Mix (Winter UCAP MW) Annual Energy Mix (TWh) MISO D-LOL Construct 45 8,000 Capacity Contract Grid Edge 40 7,000 Solar 35 Market 6,000 Wind 30 Grid Edge Battery 5,000 Hydro & CHP 25 Hydro 4,000 CT 20 Wind CC 3,000
Slide 34: Q&A
Q&A
Slide 35: Break
(= DUKE SS” ENERGY. ING & SMARTER ENERGY FUTURE ® Break
Slide 36: Demand-Side Management Market Potential Study
Demand-Side Management Market Potential Study
Slide 37: Market Potential Studies & IRPs
Market Potential Studies & IRPs BUNDLE DEVELOPMENT PROPRIETARY IN PROGRESS | 2024 DUKE ENERGY DUKE ENERGY CREATE PREFERRED DSM IRP DSM PROGRAM IRP INPUTS PORTFOLIO FILING © RESOURCE INNOVATIONS MODELING IMPLEMENTATION File 2027-2029 Portfolio of Programs Realistic Achievable IRP Resource with IURC A
Slide 38: Market Potential Follows a Stepwise Workflow
Market Potential Follows a Stepwise Workflow The framework for analyzing market potential was established in 2007 under the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency. The stages of market potential are designed to ensure broad consideration of measure opportunities, PROPRIETARY and firms like ours
Slide 39: Overall Process
© RESOURCE INNOVATIONS 2024 | PROPRIETARY Overall Process 39
Slide 40: Technology Research
Technology Research We develop a robust set of all commercially-available technologies Define the Features of the Measure to consider in the study. Our model applies the technologies to the 1 PROPRIETARY What is the baseline technology? How much energy can efficient tech. save? market baseline and a
Slide 41: Technical Potential (EE)
Technical Potential (EE) Base Case Technical Total Equipment Potential Saturation Percent Feasibility Savings Number of Energy Use of Efficient Shares Incomplete Factor Factor Households Intensity Measures (kWh/unit) • Measures ranked by savings % • Applied to baseline “equipment forecast” • Dealing
Slide 42: End Use Share of Cumulative TP by Sector
End Use Share of Cumulative TP by Sector Residential Commercial Industrial System 2025 Base Load (MWh) 9,482,055 6,143,426 10,869,177 26,494,658 Sum of Annual Incremental Savings (MWh) 7,090,536 3,628,640 4,524,002 15,243,179 Cumulative Savings with Measure Rolloff (MWh) 3,080,195 1,173,495 1,624,68
Slide 43: Economic Potential
Economic Potential Duke Energy and OSB Stakeholders Use the Utility Cost Test PROPRIETARY Features of the UCT Test • Compares Utility Cost of a Program Offer to Avoided Energy, Capacity, and T&D | • 2024 Incorporates All Utility Costs: Incentive and Administrative • Consistent with DSM Program Plann
Slide 44: End Use Share of Cumulative EP by Sector
End Use Share of Cumulative EP by Sector Residential Commercial Industrial System 2025 Base Load (MWh) 9,482,055 6,143,426 10,869,177 26,494,658 Sum of Annual Incremental Savings (MWh) 6,468,444 3,468,270 4,226,448 14,163,162 Cumulative Savings with Measure Rolloff (MWh) 2,686,049 1,100,618 1,468,62
Slide 45: Achievable Potential
Achievable Potential PROPRIETARY 80% 70% Acceptance Rate 60% 50% 40% 30% | 20% 2024 10% 0% 0 5 10 15 © RESOURCE INNOVATIONS Simple Payback Years Incorporates Expected Market Response to Cost-Effective Offers • Customer Payback Acceptance is Long-run Market Share • Competing Measures are Allocated by
Slide 46: Start Year Sales Distribution by Segment – Eligibility
Start Year Sales Distribution by Segment – Eligibility Commercial Industrial 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Offices Transportation Equipment Retail Metal Products and Machinery Restaurants Chemicals and Plastics Healthcare Miscellaneous Manufacturing Schools K-12 Lumber/Furnitur
Slide 47: Duke Energy Program Savings 2023
Duke Energy Program Savings 2023 Actual YTD Gross @ Meter Program MWH Total Duke Portfolio - Residential Agency Assistance Portal 0 Income Qualified Neighborhood 857 Income Qualified Weatherization 255 Energy Efficiency Education Program for Schools 878 Multi-Family EE Products & Services 2,275 Resi
Slide 48: APS, IRA, Model Calibration
APS, IRA, Model Calibration PROPRIETARY APS Considerations Inflation Reduction Act Model Calibration • Allocate Measures to DEI Programs • HOMES 20% Retrofit Performance • Measure-Program Allocation Measure Adjustments | • Generalizations of Existing DEI Programs o Indiana funding allocation • Appli
Slide 49: APS Sensitivities
APS Sensitivities PROPRIETARY Vary Costs and Benefits to Examine Sensitivity • Base Case – Eligible Customers with IRA Impacts | • Incentive Sensitivity – Base with double incentive, capped at 75% 2024 or max cost-effective incentive • Avoided Cost Sensitivity – Increase avoided costs by 50% © RESOU
Slide 50: APS Sensitivity and Share of Sales - Residential
APS Sensitivity and Share of Sales - RESIDENTIAL *This graph does not account for IRA Sunset 50
Slide 51: APS Sensitivity and Share of Sales - Commercial
APS Sensitivity and Share of Sales - COMMERCIAL 51
Slide 52: APS Sensitivity and Share of Sales - Industrial
APS Sensitivity and Share of Sales - INDUSTRIAL 52
Slide 53: Annual Incremental Savings – Base Case w/ IRA
Annual Incremental Savings – Base Case w/ IRA 180,000,000 160,000,000 140,000,000 Annual Incremental Savings (kWh) 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 MPS Study Year Residential NonResidential 53
Slide 54: Program Potential - Eligible Customers with IRA
Program Potential - Eligible Customers with IRA Savings Perspective Year 1 5-Year 10-Year 25-Year Residential Sum of Annual Incremental Energy (MWh) 114,999 688,633 1,469,454 3,310,742 Cumulative Energy (MWh) 114,999 426,633 813,778 853,847 Non-Residential Sum of Annual Incremental Energy (MWh) 71,9
Slide 55: Market Potential with Utility Programs – Residential
Market Potential with Utility Programs – RES, IRA Sunset 100,000,000 90,000,000 80,000,000 Annual kWh Saved by Program) 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Energy Efficiency Education Low Income Neighborhood Low Income Weatherization Multifa
Slide 56: Achievable: Sensitivity to Costs and Benefits (Res)
Achievable: Sensitivity to Costs and Benefits (Res) Smart Saver 25c Home Energy Report Smart Saver HVAC Smart Saver Retail Multifamily Energy Efficiency Products & Services Low Income Neighborhood Program Smart Saver Store Smart Saver Advanced Energy Efficiency Education Residential Energy Assessmen
Slide 57: Portfolio Costs by Scenario and Sector (Res, 5 Years)
Portfolio Costs by Scenario and Sector (Res, 5 Years) Multifamily Energy Smart Smart Home Low Income Low Income Energy Efficiency Efficiency Products & Residential Energy Smart Saver Smart Saver Smart Saver Saver Saver Energy Smart Saver Program Scenario Metric Neighborhood Weatherization Education
Slide 58: Market Potential with Utility Programs – Non-Res
Market Potential with Utility Programs – Non-Res 60,000,000 50,000,000 Annual kWh Saved by Program 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 MPS Study Year Business Energy Saver Smart Saver Non-Residential Incentive Smart Saver Custom Outdoor Lighting Modernization Program 58
Slide 59: Achievable: Sensitivity to Costs and Benefits (NonRes)
Achievable: Sensitivity to Costs and Benefits (NonRes) Smart Saver Non-Residential Incentive Smart Saver Custom Program Business Energy Saver Outdoor Lighting Modernization Program - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Estimated 5-Year Cumulative MWh Avoided Cost Sensitivity Incentive Sen
Slide 60: Portfolio Costs by Scenario and Sector (NonRes, 5 Years)
Portfolio Costs by Scenario and Sector (NonRes, 5 Years) Program Scenario Metric Smart Saver Custom Business Energy Saver Smart Saver Non-Residential Incentive Outdoor Lighting Modernization Program Base Cumulative Energy (MWh) 159,862 35,234 196,801 1,979 Incentive Sensitivity Cumulative Energy (MW
Slide 61: OSB Collaboration and Feedback
OSB Collaboration and Feedback Cadence Thank you for your participation, Kickoff Study Component Delivered 9/21/2023 Notes Presentation and Review of Added Scope (days) 0 flexibility, and engagement! Correspondence 10/11/2023 10/23/2023 CAC Areas of Interest to RI 15 Draft Work Plan Comments rec'd C
Slide 62: OSB Stakeholder Feedback
OSB Stakeholder Feedback PROPRIETARY OSB Comments Response • Energy Efficiency Tax Credits should be applied as a reduction in • Implemented as described; qualifying EE measures receive a discount equipment purchase cost, with utility incentives providing further cost from IRA tax credits and DEI in
Slide 63: High-Resolution Output for Integrated Resource Planning
High-Resolution Output • Expected Utility Costs and Benefits from Program Offerings • Energy and Load Impacts by Economic Sector, Customer Segment, Electricity End Use, and Construction Vintage PROPRIETARY • Anticipated Energy and Load Impacts for Each Year of the Planning Period • Robust Modeling T
Slide 64: Q&A
Q&A
Slide 65: EnCompass Model Review (Technical Meeting)
EnCompass Model Review (Technical Meeting)
Slide 66: Data Sharing
Data Sharing Data related to this meeting As files are available, they will has been provided to be uploaded to Datasite so Technical Stakeholders who Technical Stakeholders have have signed a non-disclosure the opportunity to review in agreement. advance of the meetings to help facilitate robus
Slide 67: 2024 DEI IRP Stakeholder Meetings
2024 DEI IRP Stakeholder Meetings Engaging with our stakeholders in multiple sessions throughout the 2024 IRP process Meeting #1 Meeting #2 Meeting #3 Meeting #4 Meeting #5 February 22nd April 29th June 20th 1st half August 1st half Sept Review previous IRP Generic Unit Summary Final inputs
Slide 68: Open Q&A
(= DUKE SS ENERGY. SMARTER ENERGY FUTURE ® Open Q&A
Slide 69: Next Steps
Next Steps Additional questions, comments, and feedback can be sent to DEIndianaIRP@1898andco.com Please provide any written feedback by July 10, 2024 The fourth technical and public stakeholders meeting will occur in early August. Meeting registration will be sent out 4-6 weeks in advance. | 69
Slide 70: Thank you
Thank you
Slide 71: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 72: Appendix: Resource Availability
Appendix: Resource Availability Updates since Meeting 2
Slide 73: Annual Resource Availability | Thermal
Annual Resource Availability (Interconnection Timing, BoY) | Thermal Resource Aggressive Policy & Minimum Policy & Reference Case Basis for Assumption Type Rapid Innovation Lagging Innovation 2031+: Two HA.03 (851 MW) Assessment of resource availability and CT 2031+: Two HA.03 (851 MW) Reference H2
Slide 74: Annual Resource Availability | Renewables & Storage
Annual Resource Availability (Interconnection Timing, BoY) | Renewables & Storage Resource Aggressive Policy & Minimum Policy & Reference Case Basis for Assumption Type Rapid Innovation Lagging Innovation 2026: 199 MW 2026: 199 MW Speedway PPA in-flight 2027: 300 MW 2027: 300 MW 2022 RFP awards 2024
Slide 75: Appendix: Nuclear SMR Costs
Appendix: Nuclear SMR Costs
Slide 76: Nuclear SMR Cost Curve
Nuclear SMR Cost Curve SMR Advantages Relative to Traditional Nuclear: Modularized section for containment fabricated offsite Reduces quantity of concrete, rebar Majority of welding done offsite Modularized equipment rooms fabricated offsite and installed in sections Reactor vessel below g
Slide 77: Appendix: Demand-Side Management Market Potential Study
Appendix: Demand-Side Management Market Potential Study
Slide 78: Total Energy Saved (Sum of Annuals) – Base Case w/ IRA
Total Energy Saved (Sum of Annuals) – Base Case w/ IRA 3,500,000,000 3,000,000,000 Sum of Annual Incremental Potential (kWh) 2,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 MPS Study Year Residential NonResidential 78
Slide 79: Cumulative Savings with Rolloff – Base Case w/ IRA
Cumulative Savings with Rolloff – Base Case w/ IRA 1,200,000,000 1,000,000,000 Cumulative Potential with Rolloff (kWh) 800,000,000 600,000,000 400,000,000 200,000,000 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 MPS Study Year Residential NonResidential 79
Slide 80: First-Year Impacts by Measure (top 20, Ach.)
First-Year Impacts by Measure (top 20, Ach.) Residential Non-Residential Measure Name Cumul Savings % of Savings Measure Name Cumul Savings % of Savings Behavior Modification Home Energy Reports 59,196,860 51% Air Sealing 6,936,905 6% VFD on HVAC Fan 7,352,262 10% Heat Pump Water Heater 50 Gallons-
Slide 81: Five-Year Cumulative Impact by Measure (Ach.)
Five-Year Cumulative Impact by Measure (Ach.) Residential Non-Residential Measure Name Cumul Savings % of Savings Measure Name Cumul Savings % of Savings Behavior Modification Home Energy Reports 62,799,748 15% Heat Pump Water Heater 50 Gallons- CEE VFD on HVAC Fan 38,040,493 10% Advanced Tier 48,66
Slide 82: Ten-Year Cumulative Impacts by Measure (Ach.)
Ten-Year Cumulative Impacts by Measure (Ach.) Residential Non-Residential Measure Name Cumul Savings % of Savings Heat Pump Water Heater 50 Gallons- CEE Measure Name Cumul Savings % of Savings Advanced Tier 106,826,536 13% VFD on HVAC Fan 76,462,762 10% Air Sealing 88,571,505 11% LED Linear - Lamp R
Slide 83: Twenty-Five-Year Cumulative Impacts by Measure (Ach.)
Twenty-Five-Year Cumulative Impacts by Measure (Ach.) Residential Non-Residential Measure Name Cumul Savings % of Savings Heat Pump Water Heater 50 Gallons- CEE Measure Name Cumul Savings % of Savings Advanced Tier 93,082,360 11% LED Linear - Lamp Replacement 80,966,254 10% Behavior Modification Hom
Slide 84: Appendix: Acronyms
(= DUKE SS” ENERGY. MARTER ENERGY FUTURE ® Appendix: Acronyms
Slide 85: Acronyms
Acronyms AMI Advanced Metering Infrastructure ECM Electronically Commutated Motor APS Achievable Potential Study EE Energy Efficiency ASHP Air Source Heat Pump EOY End of Year BOY Beginning of Year EPA Environmental Protection Agency CAA 111 Clean Air Act 111 GPM Gallons per Minute CC Combined Cycle
Slide 86: Acronyms
Acronyms IURC Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission SMR Small Modular Reactor kV Kilovolt T&D Transmission & Distribution kW Kilowatt TWh Terawatt-hour kWh Kilowatt-hour UCAP Unforced Capacity lb Pound UCT Utility Cost Test LMP Locational Marginal Pricing VFD Variable Frequency Drives MISO Midcontin