Slide 1: Q3 2023 Results Presentation
Q3 2023 Results Presentation November 1, 2023
Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements and other information included in this presentation, including under the heading "2023 Financial Guidance" and the section "Market Outlook", constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively
Slide 3: Non-IFRS Financial Measures
Forward Looking Statements Non-IFRS Financial Measures This presentation contains certain non-IFRS financial measures and non-IFRS ratios, including adjusted EBITDA (consolidated), adjusted EBITDA (consolidated) and adjusted net earnings per share guidance. Management believes these non-IFRS financi
Slide 4: Financial Highlights
Financial Highlights “Nutrien’s third-quarter results reflect the strength of agriculture and crop nutrient market fundamentals in North America. We delivered record potash sales volumes and are encouraged by the increased level of demand and market stability in the second half of 2023. We are optim
Slide 5: Strategic Focus
Strategic Focus “Our focus is on initiatives that strengthen the advantages of our integrated business, drive operational efficiencies and increase free cash flow. We expect to deliver growth from highly targeted investment projects and maintain a balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocat
Slide 6: Earnings Summary
Earnings Summary Three Months Ended September 30 Nine Months Ended September 30 2023 2022 2021 2023 2022 2021 Adjusted EBITDA Retail $197 $235 $291 $1,230 $1,902 $1,497 Potash $611 $1,378 $808 $1,941 $4,811 $1,683 Nitrogen $294 $855 $532 $1,539 $3,090 $1,387 Phosphate $90 $143 $135 $340 $566 $344 Co
Slide 7: Retail Results – Q3 2023
Retail Results – Q3 2023 Gross Margin Higher Crop Nutrients US$ Millions • Improved grower demand and higher per-tonne margins for both commodity fertilizer and our proprietary nutritional and biostimulant product lines Lower Crop Protection Products • Decreased prices for certain commodity products
Slide 8: Retail Results – Q3 2023 YTD
Retail Results – Q3 2023 YTD Gross Margin US$ Millions Lower Crop Nutrients • Lower selling prices across all regions compared to the strong comparable period in 2022 Lower Crop Protection Products • Decreased prices for certain commodity products and selling 1 through of higher cost inventory Adjus
Slide 9: Potash Results – Q3 2023
Potash Results – Q3 2023 Lower net realized selling prices • Decline in benchmark prices and higher logistics costs related to Gross Margin logistical challenges at US$ Millions Canpotex’s West Coast port facilities $1,618 Higher sales volumes • Highest third quarter on record • Strong demand in Nor
Slide 10: Potash Results – Q3 2023 YTD
Lower net realized selling prices • Decline in benchmark prices and Potash Results – Q3 2023 YTD higher logistics costs related to logistical challenges at Canpotex’s west coast port Gross Margin facilities US$ Millions Flat sales volumes $5,432 • Higher in North America due to lower channel invento
Slide 11: Nitrogen Results – Q3 2023
Nitrogen Results – Q3 2023 Gross Margin US$ Millions Lower net realized selling prices • Weaker benchmark prices $664 resulting from lower energy prices in key nitrogen producing regions Lower sales volumes • Unplanned production outages at $154 our plants in Trinidad, Borger and Geismar Q3'22 Net R
Slide 12: Nitrogen Results – Q3 2023 YTD
Nitrogen Results – Q3 2023 YTD Lower net realized selling prices • Weaker benchmark prices resulting from lower energy prices Gross Margin in key nitrogen producing regions US$ Millions Flat sales volumes • Increased demand for nitrates $2,582 and sulfates • Strong spring seasonal demand for urea an
Slide 13: 2023 Financial Guidance
2023 Financial Guidance Assumptions 2023 Guidance Ranges1,2 as of Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance was revised to reflect pressure on crop November 1, 2023 August 2, 2023 (billions of US dollars, except as otherwise noted) protection product margins in South America and lower projected Low High Low H
Slide 14: Balanced approach to capital allocation through the cycle
Balanced approach to capital allocation through the cycle 2023 Capital Allocation Historical Capital Allocation (2018-2022) US$ Billions Percent Sustaining, Mine Development & Dividends Paid Pre-Stripping ~$0.4B Lease Payments1 Expenditures 20% Completed Acquisitions3 24% $4.0B - $4.5B ~$1.0B Invest
Slide 15: Nutrien mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA scenario
Nutrien mid-cycle adjusted EBITDA scenario Adjusted EBITDA1 US$ Billions Mid-Cycle Scenario 12.2 Growth Drivers Potash ~2Mmt4 of sales volume growth potential from existing operational capability Increasing productivity through automation mining 7.5 capabilities 7.1 6.4 Nitrogen ~1.4Mmt4 of sales vo
Slide 16: Market Outlook
Market Outlook 16
Slide 17: Global crop yields have recently been below-trend levels
Global crop yields have recently been below-trend levels, in part due to the decline in nutrient applications Global Fertilizer Consumption and Crop Yields Million Nutrient Tonnes Tonnes/Hectare 200 N P2O5 K2O Global Yield Yield Trend 4 180 3.5 160 3 140 2.5 120 100 2 80 1.5 60 1 40 0.5 20 0 0 Note:
Slide 18: Supply of global grains continues to be tight
Supply of global grains continues to be tight Global Stocks/Use Ratios Percent 18% Corn 30% Wheat 25% Rice World excl. China World excl. China World excl. China 16% 25% 14% 20% 12% 20% 15% 10% 15% 8% 10% 6% 10% 4% 5% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023F 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023F 2013 2
Slide 19: Supply challenges have supported crop futures prices
Supply challenges have supported crop futures prices and provide incentive for growers to maximize production Corn Avg. Realized Price Soybean Avg. Realized Price US$/bushel US$/bushel $6.89 $6.60 $14.40 $14.20 $6.00 $13.00 $13.30 $12.97 $4.79 $10.10 $10.80 $4.46 $4.53 $8.95 $9.47 $9.33 $8.48 $8.57
Slide 20: Projected grower cash margins remain above historical average levels
Projected grower cash margins remain above historical average levels Key Crop Grower Cash Margins1 US Corn Cash Selling Price & Costs3 Local Currency Margin/Acre US$/bu US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat US Cotton CAN Canola BRZ Soybeans 2 $8.00 700 5,000 4,500 $7.00 600 4,000 $6.00 500 3,500 3,000 $5.00
Slide 21: Global potash prices have been relatively stable in the second half of 2023
Global potash prices have been relatively stable in the second half of 2023 Selected Fertilizer Prices Fertilizer Market Drivers US$ per Unit • Global potash prices were relatively stable in the third quarter of 2023 and demand was strong in North America, Brazil and China. 1,200 Brazil (Gran. US$/m
Slide 22: Increased projected global potash shipment range for 2023
Increased projected global shipment range to 65 to 67 million tonnes in 2023 and expect further demand growth in 2024 Potash Demand Millions of Tonnes KCl 20 15 10 5 0 20 21 22 23F 24F 20 21 22 23F 24F 20 21 22 23F 24F 20 21 22 23F 24F 20 21 22 23F 24F 20 21 22 23F 24F India Other Asia North America
Slide 23: Potash Production in Selected Regions
Potash Production in Selected Regions Potash Production in Selected Regions Millions of Tonnes KCl 18 2021 2022 2023F 15 12 9 6 3 0 Nutrien Other Canada Russia Belarus Europe Middle East China Other 1 1. Includes production from Latin America and Laos. 23 Source: CRU, Company Reports, Nutrien
Slide 24: Nitrogen supply from key regions remains constrained
Nitrogen supply from key regions remains constrained Russian Ammonia Exports European Nitrogen Capacity1,2 Million Tonnes Million Tonnes 5 20 Online Capacity Curtailed Capacity 4 15 3 10 2 5 1 0 0 3 2020 2021 2022 2023F Ammonia Urea (Gross) AN & CAN UAN 1. Capacity curtailments are point in time as
Slide 25: European natural gas prices remain volatile
European natural gas prices remain volatile leading to regional nitrogen production curtailments Ammonia Production Costs1 & Key Ammonia Prices2 Units shown in legend $3,000 Implied Cost of European Ammonia Production (US$/mt) NW Europe Ammonia (US$/mt CFR) $2,500 Tampa Ammonia (US$/mt CFR) Middle E
Slide 26: Expect lower Chinese fertilizer exports compared to historical average
Expect lower Chinese fertilizer exports compared to historical average China DAP/MAP Exports China Urea Exports Millions of Tonnes Millions of Tonnes 6 12 Full Year Exports Total Year Avg Full Year Exports Total Year Avg 10 Annual Avg Annual Avg 2017-2021 2017-2021 ~4.6 Mmt ~9.2 Mmt 8 4 6 4 2 2 0 0
Slide 27: Thank You!
Thank You! For more information, please visit: www.nutrien.com facebook.com/nutrienltd linkedin.com/company/nutrien youtube.com/nutrien @nutrienltd