ageas SA/NV · EURONEXT:AGS
ageas SA/NV — 9M 2015 Earnings Presentation
62 slides from ageas SA/NV's earnings presentation, Nov 4, 2015
Slide 1: 9M 2015 Results
9M 2015 RESULTS Periodical Financial Information
Slide 2: Main messages
Main messages Ageas’s Q3 result impacted by financial markets Insurance net profit of EUR 613 mio (+6%) – Q3 EUR 109 mio Life result - equity market performance causing volatility in results suffering from - see PR 21/10/15 low cap gains & Inflows @ 100% of EUR 22.8 bn (+17%) – Q3 EUR 6.2 bn equ
Slide 3: Total Insurance: Headlines
Total Insurance: Headlines Continued strong underwriting, Q3 Life result impacted by equity impairments Net result: up 6%, Life down on lower Inflows*: up 17% (11% FX) driven by Life Technical liabilities slightly cap gains & equity impairments in Q3 strong growth in Asia down in consolidated entiti
Slide 4: Overview of net capital gains on investments
Overview of net capital gains* on investments Lower capital gains & high level of impairments EUR mio 9M 14 9M 15 Q3 14 Q3 15 Life 114 34 50 (3) substantially lower cap gains (9M) Non-Life 14 4 10 (2) & impairments (Q3) Total Belgium 127 38 60 (5) Q3 '14 incl. EUR 60 mio RE cap gain Non-Life 3 7 0 1
Slide 5: Belgium: Headlines
Belgium : Headlines Continued solid operating performance in Non-Life offset by lower cap gains in Life Life result impacted by equity Inflows: Continued trend of decreasing Life Technical liabilities: Slightly lower impairments in Q3 short term investment products on shadow-accounting In EUR mio In
Slide 6: United Kingdom: Headlines
United Kingdom: Headlines Steady nine months performance Continued strong result in Household Non-Life Inflows* up 8%, down 4% at In EUR mio constant FX In EUR bn 80 1.9 48 1.8 65 0.7 0.6 52 27 24 1.7 1.9 70 0.6 0.7 26 20 25 (0) 0.1 0.0 2 (6) 1 9M 14 9M 15 Q3 14 Q3 15 9M 14 9M 15 Q3 14 Q3 15 Life Ot
Slide 7: Continental Europe: Headlines
Continental Europe: Headlines Strong Non-Life results offset by equity impairments in Life Non-Life profit up on scope & claims - Inflows*: up in all entities except Life Technical liabilities up 4% Life impacted by equity impairments Luxembourg & Turkey In EUR bn In EUR mio In EUR bn 4.3 63 3.9 33.
Slide 8: Asia: Headlines
Asia: Headlines Result significantly up despite impact Asian equity market in Q3 Net result: incl. ≈ EUR 100 mio positive Inflows* growth fuelled by China & Life Technical liabilities slight exceptional in H1 & impairments in Q3 Thailand decrease in Malaysia In EUR mio In EUR bn In EUR bn 222 12.8 7
Slide 9: General Account: Headlines
General Account: Headlines Impacted by revaluation RPN(i) liability Net result driven by revaluation RPN(i) P&L effect RPN(i): decrease liability Staff & Operating expenses up In EUR mio following higher share price Ageas In EUR mio In EUR mio 51 33 46 22 40 (14) 12 21 (297) 38 (124) 17 29 13 13 9 1
Slide 10: Shareholders' equity roll forward
Shareholders’ equity roll forward Unrealized gains at EUR 2.8 bn or EUR 12.91 per share In EUR mio Shareholders’ EUR 46.60 EUR 51.12 equity per share 169 613 344 111 10,917 10,223 12 (14) (329) (11) 1,270 1,036 (201) Insurance Insurance 2,758 2,597 UCG/L UCG/L 6,590 6,889 FY 14 Result Result Change
Slide 11: Conclusions
Conclusions Q3 showing a mixed picture: - strong operating performance in Non-Life & volatile financial markets resulting in significant equity impairments 9M results solid Announced files on acquisitions & divestments on track Periodic financial Information I 9M 15 Results I 4 November 2015 1
Slide 12: Annexes
Annexes Equity / Solvency Insurance Activities Investment portfolio General Account General Information
Slide 13: Key financials
Key financials Net Insurance result up 6% In EUR mio 9M 14 9M 15 Q3 14 Q3 15 Gross inflows 19,466 22,769 17% 5,676 6,151 8% - of which inflows from non-consolidated partnerships 11,748 14,872 27% 3,278 3,646 11% Net result Insurance 579 613 6% 239 109 (54%) By segment: - Belgium 321 264 (18%) 129 68
Slide 14: Shareholders' equity roll forward
Shareholders’ equity roll forward Unrealized gains at EUR 2.8 bn or EUR 12.91 per share In EUR mio Shareholders’ EUR 46.60 EUR 51.12 equity per share 169 613 344 111 10,917 10,223 12 (14) (329) (11) 1,270 1,036 (201) Insurance Insurance 2,758 2,597 UCG/L UCG/L 6,590 6,889 FY 14 Result Result Change
Slide 15: Tangible net equity
Tangible net equity High quality capital structure EUR bn FY 14 9M 15 IFRS Shareholders' Equity 10.2 10.9 Unrealised gains real estate 0.7 0.8 Goodwill (0.8) (0.8) VOBA (Value of Business Acquired) (0.3) (0.3) DAC (Deferred Acquisition Cost) (0.8) (0.9) Other (0.4) (0.4) Goodwill, DAC, VOBA related
Slide 16: Insurance Solvency I up on net result & financial markets
Insurance Solvency I up on net result & financial markets General Account down on dividend payment In EUR bn Belgium RMC Excess Capital 9.9 9.9 UK RMC Excess Capital CEU RMC Excess Capital 8.8 Asia RMC Excess Capital 8.7 Total Ageas RMC Excess Capital General Account Available Capital 5.6 5.7 4.5 4.
Slide 17: Annexes
Annexes Equity / Solvency Insurance activities Investment portfolio General Account General Information
Slide 18: Total Insurance: Headlines
Total Insurance: Headlines Continued strong underwriting, Q3 Life result impacted by equity impairments Net result: up 6%, Life down on lower Inflows*: up 17% (11% FX) driven by Life Technical liabilities slightly cap gains & equity impairments in Q3 strong growth in Asia down in consolidated entiti
Slide 19: Inflows @ 100% up 17%
Inflows@ 100% up 17% Including 11% FX impact - Growth driven by China & Thailand Life Non-Life Total EUR mio 9M 14 9M 15 9M 14 9M 15 9M 14 9M 15 Belgium 75% 2,907 2,694 (7%) 1,461 1,462 0% 4,368 4,156 (5%) United Kingdom 100 0 - 1,746 1,880 8% 1,846 1,880 2% Consolidated entities 100% 100 0 - 1,333
Slide 20: Inflows @ Ageas's part up 11%
Inflows@ Ageas’s part up 11% Asia strongest contributor In EUR mio 8% positive FX impact 11% 10,358 BE: sales Savings product down due to persisting low interest rate UK: competitive market in both Household & Motor 9,366 3,394 Belgium Life Non-Life 3,132 UK Life Non-Life CEU Life Non-Life Asi
Slide 21: Insurance net result up 6%
Insurance net result up 6% Growth related to Asian Life & European Non-Life performance In EUR mio Incl. ≈ EUR 100 mio exceptional result in China in Q2 Incl. EUR 62 mio impairments on equities in Q3 613 Incl. EUR 26 mio positive FX impact 579 Belgium Life Non-Life 112 193 UK Life Non-Life Oth
Slide 22: Overview of net capital gains on investments
Overview of net capital gains* on investments Lower capital gains & high level of impairments EUR mio 9M 14 9M 15 Q3 14 Q3 15 Life 114 34 50 (3) substantially lower cap gains (9M) Non-Life 14 4 10 (2) & impairments (Q3) Total Belgium 127 38 60 (5) Q3 '14 incl. EUR 60 mio RE cap gain Non-Life 3 7 0 1
Slide 23: Insurance Combined ratio
Insurance Combined ratio Claims ratio significantly down & below 97% objective Combined ratio 106.0% Benefitting from solid underwriting throughout 100.1%99.1% 98.3% 99.6% 99.6% whole period 95.1% 94.8%94.7% 32.8% All segments improving 31.1% 31.0% 34.0% 35.2% 35.3% 35.0% 35.0% 34.7% Almost al
Slide 24: Insurance Combined ratio per product line
Insurance Combined ratio per product line Almost all product lines reaching 97% target Accident & Health: low claims ratio in UK & CEU Motor: excellent in BE – attention point in UK & CEU 107.4% 99.1% 96.9% 96.0% 95.6% 94.3% 93.5% 93.1% 97.3% 99.0% 99.1% 99.3% 99.3% 98.2% 29.0% 24.8% 25.0% 25.5% 25.
Slide 25: Insurance Life operating margin per product line
Insurance Life operating margin per product line Investment margin suffering from low cap gains & impairments Guaranteed: driven by investment margin Unit-linked: increase driven by one-offs Hong Kong 0.48% 0.99%0.96%0.89% 0.98% 0.96% 0.80% 0.28% 0.37% Expense & 0.61% 0.28% Other 0.87% 0.83% 0.90% 0
Slide 26: Belgium: Headlines
Belgium : Headlines Continued solid operating performance in Non-Life offset by lower cap gains in Life Life result impacted by equity Inflows: Continued trend of decreasing Life Technical liabilities: Slightly lower impairments in Q3 short term investment products on shadow-accounting In EUR mio In
Slide 27: Belgium: Inflows @ 100%
Belgium: Inflows@ 100% Continued decreasing trend in Guaranteed partly compensated by Unit-Linked Life In EUR mio Unit-linked 2,907 (7%) 2,694 Strong increase in Unit-linked sales (+17%) 320 375 Unit-Linked Guaranteed Further decrease of inflows in short term investment products 2,587 Guaranteed
Slide 28: Belgium: Combined ratio
Belgium: Combined ratio Overall strong improvement & well below 97% Combined ratio 105.1% 101.9% Overall strong improvement of the combined ratio 101.1%99.5% 99.9%101.2% 94.2% 94.4%93.5% Accident & Health combined ratio deteriorated slightly 36.4% due to Health products 36.8% 36.8% 36.7% 37.7% 3
Slide 29: Belgium: Combined ratio per product line
Belgium: Combined ratio per product line Positive evolution all over, except for Accident & Health Accident & Health: slight increase due to Health Motor: excellent performance (vs. June ‘14 hailstorm) in both claims & expenses 106.7% 97.7% 97.6% 97.0% 97.5% 95.5% 100.5% 101.0% 99.8% 100.4% 95.2% 97
Slide 30: Belgium Life operating margin per product line
Belgium Life operating margin per product line Guaranteed: impacted by lower capital gains Unit-linked: stable on a year-to date basis & equity impairments 0.96% 0.87% 0.98% 0.98% 0.89% 0.71% 0.47% 0.51% 0.41% 0.40% 0.93% 0.88% 0.95% 0.99% 1.04% 0.34% Investment 0.30% 0.32% 0.16% 0.75% 0.52% 0.44% E
Slide 31: Margin evolution Assets & Liabilities Belgium
Margin evolution Assets & Liabilities Belgium Yield & guaranteed rate on back book down at the same pace FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 9M 15 Life Guaranteed interest rate 2.89% 2.80% 2.71% 2.66% Back book Fixed income yield 4.03% 3.97% 3.84% 3.76%* FY 13 FY 14 9M 15 New money Fixed income yield 3.29% 2.89% 2.05
Slide 32: United Kingdom: Headlines
United Kingdom: Headlines Steady nine months performance Continued strong result in Household Non-Life Inflows* up 8%, down 4% at In EUR mio constant FX In EUR bn 80 1.9 48 1.8 65 0.7 0.6 52 27 24 1.7 1.9 70 0.6 0.7 26 20 25 (0) 0.1 0.0 2 (6) 1 9M 14 9M 15 Q3 14 Q3 15 9M 14 9M 15 Q3 14 Q3 15 Life Ot
Slide 33: United Kingdom: Inflows @ 100%
United Kingdom: Inflows @ 100% Inflows up 8% - down 4% at constant FX Non-Life In EUR mio Non-Life 8% 1,880 Up 8%, but 4% down at constant FX, an improvement on Q2 1,746 198 168 Other Motor up 9% but down 3% at constant FX – volumes up as 374 market premiums start to increase 370 Household Hou
Slide 34: United Kingdom: Combined ratio
United Kingdom: Combined ratio Continued sub 100% performance, in line with Q2 ‘15 Combined ratio 109.5% Improved performance in Household 99.9% 99.8% 97.8% 99.8% 99.3% 98.3% 96.6%98.2% 28.0% Benign weather contributes to improvement 25.3% 26.5% 32.2% 33.5% 33.8% 33.8% 33.4% 33.5% Motor remain
Slide 35: United Kingdom: Combined ratio per product line
United Kingdom: Combined ratio per product line Improved loss ratio in all product lines except Motor Accident & Health: Increased commission ratio Motor: Higher claims frequency & average cost 121.9% 110.9% 106.2% 103.5% 106.3% 110.5% 104.7% 98.7% 98.5% 96.9% 99.7% 99.4% 100.8% 24.0% 100.4% 23.2% 2
Slide 36: Continental Europe: Headlines
Continental Europe: Headlines Strong Non-Life results offset by equity impairments in Life Non-Life profit up on scope & claims - Inflows*: up in all entities except Life Technical liabilities up 4% Life impacted by equity impairments Luxembourg & Turkey In EUR bn In EUR mio In EUR bn 4.3 63 3.9 33.
Slide 37: Continental Europe: Inflows @ 100%
Continental Europe: Inflows@ 100% Consolidated inflows up, down in JV’s reflecting strategic choices Life In EUR mio Life (11%) 3,475 Inflows down 11%, Including non-controlling interests @ 100%, 3,096 reflecting lower sales in Luxembourg 1,265 Consolidated Inflows up 23% Unit-Linked 1,570 Por
Slide 38: Continental Europe: Combined ratio
Continental Europe: Combined ratio Excellent combined ratio well below 97% Combined ratio Combined ratio significantly lower thanks to benign 101.3% weather compared to 9M ‘14 96.7% 93.4%93.7% 92.1% 90.7% 89.3%86.4% 86.0% Combined ratio Turkey at 103.5% affected by bad 30.3% 30.3% 29.8% 30.0% 30
Slide 39: Continental Europe: Combined ratio per product line
Continental Europe: Combined ratio per product line Overall combined ratio within expectations Accident & Health: improved claims & less expenses Motor: deteriorated due less favourable CY & PY claims 117.5% 108.5% 105.3% 101.0% 97.9% 95.8% 91.3% 91.5% 27.0% 91.7% 91.5% 86.3% 88.6% 86.9% 82.6% 29.2%
Slide 40: Continental Europe Life operating margin per product line
Continental Europe Life operating margin per product line Guaranteed: all margins improving – Unit-linked: decreasing expense & other margin above target range 0.47% 0.44% 1.02% 0.91%0.70% 0.69% 1.01% 0.46%0.93% Investment 0.69% 0.68% 0.77% 0.71% 0.51% 0.63% 0.41% 0.47% 0.41% 1.18% 1.06% 1.07% 1.03%
Slide 41: Asia: Headlines
Asia: Headlines Result significantly up despite impact Asian equity market in Q3 Net result: incl. ≈ EUR 100 mio positive Inflows* growth fuelled by China & Life Technical liabilities slight exceptional in H1 & impairments in Q3 Thailand decrease in Malaysia In EUR mio In EUR bn In EUR bn 222 12.8 7
Slide 42: Asia: Inflows @ 100%
Asia: Inflows @ 100% Strong growth new business, boosted by successful sales campaigns Life In EUR mio 12,144 Life Inflows up 45% (up 22% @ constant FX) Unit-Linked New business premiums up 40% with EUR 3.4 bn single premium +45% 254 (+29%) & EUR 2.6 bn regular premium (+58%). 8,363 Renewal prem
Slide 43: Hong Kong Life operating margin per product line
Hong Kong Life operating margin per product line Change in product mix supporting expense margins Guaranteed: operating margin slightly down but Unit-linked: lower new business strain still well above target range 2.67% 4.14% 1.18% 0.21% 0.11% 0.20% 0.79% 2.69% (2.86%) 0.20% 0.21% 0.18% 0.62% 0.36%
Slide 44: Annexes
Annexes Equity / Solvency Insurance Activities Investment portfolio General Account General Information
Slide 45: Investment portfolio
Investment portfolio Unrealized gains fixed income down – allocation to Loans up In EUR bn Asset mix Asset mix relatively stable – increase in Loans & Real Estate 81.8 81.2 Decreased market value in bonds Cash 2.5 Cash 2.2 Real Estate 5.0 Real Estate 5.2 Equities 3.8 Equities 3.8 Gross unrealize
Slide 46: Sovereign & Corporate bond portfolio
Sovereign & Corporate bond portfolio Value fixed income portfolio impacted by evolution unrealized gains In EUR bn Sovereign bond portfolio* Corporate bond portfolio* 37.5 36.6 Others 3.9 Others 3.6 Germany 1.3 1.3 Germany Austria 2.8 Austria 2.8 Southern Europe 4.2 26.5 26.1 4.6 Southern Europe Gov
Slide 47: Loan & Equity portfolio
Loan & Equity portfolio More loans with guarantee In EUR bn Loan portfolio (customers + banks)* Equity portfolio* 7.1 6.1 3.8 3.8 Other 3.9 Mixed funds Mixed funds Other 3.1 & others 0.6 & others 0.8 RE funds 0.6 RE funds 0.6 Equity funds Equity funds 0.2 0.3 Mortgages 1.4 Mortgages 1.5 Infrastructu
Slide 48: Real estate portfolio
Real estate portfolio In EUR bn Real Estate portfolio* 5.2 5.0 Investment 0.4 Investment Warehouses Warehouses 0.4 0.3 RE Development RE Development 0.3 Investment Investment Retail 1.4 Retail 1.3 Car Parks Car Parks 1.1 1.1 Investment Investment Offices 1.8 Offices 2.0 FY 14 9M 15 Gross UG/L up t
Slide 49: Annexes
Annexes Equity / Solvency Insurance Activities Investment portfolio General Account General Information
Slide 50: General Account: Headlines
General Account: Headlines Impacted by revaluation RPN(i) liability Net result driven by revaluation RPN(i) P&L effect RPN(i): decrease liability Staff & Operating expenses up In EUR mio following higher share price Ageas In EUR mio In EUR mio 51 33 46 22 40 (14) 12 21 (297) 38 (124) 17 29 13 13 9 1
Slide 51: Net cash position General Account at EUR 1.4 bn
Net cash position General Account at EUR 1.4 bn Return to shareholders & investment in business In EUR mio (200) 125 (100) (24) (99) Roll forward net (329) 395 cash position 1,637 1,407 FY 14 share dividend upstream capital Intreas investment other 9M 15 buy-back restructuring liquid assets EUR 10
Slide 52: Status on various legal procedures
Status on various legal procedures Administrative & criminal proceedings* May 07 January 08 September - Press release re bid on ABN AMRO Press release on subprime & solvency October 08 Rescue operations & Split August 07 May/June 08 up of Fortis Group, Communication Q2 figures Communication re solve
Slide 53: Status on various legal procedures
Status on various legal procedures Civil proceeding initiated by (associations of) shareholders May – September 07 January – June 08 September - October 08 Press release re bid on ABN AMRO Press release on subprime & solvency Split up of Fortis Group, Communication Q2 figures Communication re solven
Slide 54: Best estimate of timings as of to date
Best estimate of timings as of to date Impossible to provide accurate timing for next steps in legal proceedings End 2015 First half 2016 Second half 2016 First instance Mr.Modrikamen VEB Deminor Pleadings Patrinvest Mr.Modrikamen Judgment on the merits Patrinvest NL - 2 separate proce
Slide 55: Main characteristics Hybrids
Main characteristics Hybrids Leverage optimized at holding level & at AG Insurance In EUR mio Ageas AG Insurance Fortis Bank (Belgium) (now BNP PF) Fixed Rate Reset Fixed Rate Reset Ageas Hybrid Fixed-to- Ageasfinlux Perpetual Dated Financing Floating Rate CASHES Fresh Subordinated Subordinated Hybr
Slide 56: Annexes
Annexes Equity / Solvency Insurance Activities Investment portfolio General Account General Information
Slide 57: Total number of outstanding shares
Total number of outstanding shares situation 31/12/2014 situation 31/10/2015 Cancellation 7.2 mio bought back shares Total Issued Shares 230,996,192 223,778,433 Shares not entitled to dividend nore voting rights 16,229,514 15,100,099 Cancellation bought back shares + new buy back 1. TREASURY SHARES
Slide 58: Shareholders structure
Shareholders structure Based on number of shares as at 31 October 2015 Franklin Mutual Advisers Identified retail investors Schroders 19% BlackRock, Inc. Ping An Identified institutional Ageas investors 4.67% 39% Other investors 18% Ageas Based upon press release 2 November 2015 Ping An Based upon t
Slide 59: Financial calendar 2016
Financial calendar 2016 17 February 18 March 19 May 10 August 16 November FY 2015 results Annual report 2015 3M 2016 results 6M 2016 results 9M 2016 results Embedded Value Report 2015 9 May 11 May Ex-dividend date Payment 2015 dividend 27 April Ordinary & Extraordinary shareholders’ meeting Brussels
Slide 60: Rating
Rating Improved rating for holding ageas SA/NV S&P MOODY'S FITCH Operating AG Insurance (Belgium) A- / positive A2 / stable* A+ / stable entities Last change 30/03/15 10/03/15 10/12/13 Ageas Insurance Limited A- / positive A+ / stable Last change 21/05/15 30/03/15 Millenniumbcp Ageas Occidental Vida
Slide 61: Disclaimer
Disclaimer Certain of the statements contained herein are statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events t
Slide 62: Investor Relations
Investor Relations Tel: + 32 2 557 57 34 E-mail: ir@ageas.com Website: www.ageas.com Investor Relations Periodic financial Information I 9M 15 Results I 4 November 2015 61