NIQ Global Intelligence plc · NYSE:NIQ

NIQ Global Intelligence — NIQ 2023 Global Holiday Outlook Webinar

41 slides from NIQ Global Intelligence's conference presentation, Nov 2, 2023

Slide 1: Holiday Outlook 2023
Holiday Outlook 2023 NIQ Global Thought Leadership Lauren Fernandes & Carman Allison © 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. © 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Slide 3: The global state of evolved consumers
The global state of Pressured evolved consumers Prolonged pressures have shaped calculated Calculated spending, as consumers evolve their habits aligned to recent inflation deceleration. But the compounding effects of years of disruption Resilient continue to keep consumers bracing for what’s ahead.
Slide 4: YTD '23 CPG sales growth continues to trend lower
YTD ‘23 CPG sales growth continues to trend lower Total CPG Growth is 11.9 fueled by rising $ % Chg 8.4 prices, with unit 4.0 sales soft 2.1 2.2 1.1 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD '23 Sep '23 Unit % Chg -0.2 +6.9 -3.5 -2.3 -2.5 -2.9 Source: NielsenIQ, Total US xAOC, YTD: 39 weeks to September 30, 2023 © 20
Slide 5: 6 factors contributing to volume sales decline
6 factors contributing to volume sales decline Sticking with the Essentials SNAP program reductions 31% of Americans are reducing non-essential Emergency allotments ended March 1 of 2023, purchases. Of which, 74% of prioritized reducing SNAP recipients’ spending power to essential item purchases in
Slide 6: September's CPG prices continue to rise, up +3.7%
September’s CPG prices continue to rise, up +3.7%, building on top of the record level of increases of +12% a year ago. Total CPG Average Unit Price % Change 14 12.1 12.0 11.7 September 2023 12 10.7 11.0 10.2 10 8.8 7.6 8 6.2 6.1 +3.7% 6 5.2 4.4 3.7 4 2 0 Sep '22 Oct '22 Nov '22 Dec '22 Jan '23 Feb
Slide 7: CPG price increases are finally aligned with CPI
After trending well above the rate of CPI, CPG price increases are finally aligned U.S. CPI Inflation Rate vs. CPG Unit Price % Change 14 12.1 12.0 11.7 12 10.7 11.0 10.2 10 8.8 8 7.6 8.2 6.2 7.7 6.1 6 7.1 5.2 6.5 6.4 6.0 4.4 5.0 3.7 4 4.9 4.0 3.7 3.7 2 3.0 3.2 0 Sep '22 Oct '22 Nov '22 Dec '22 Jan
Slide 8: Global CPG inflation still trending higher than the U.S.
Global CPG inflation still trending higher than the U.S. Top 10 concerns among global consumers Global CPG Equiv. Vol. Price % Change Global US 1 Rising food prices 38% 34% 16 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.3 13.1 2 Increasing utilities 20% 16% 14 12.9 11.8 12.2 11.6 12 10.4 9.8 3 Economic downturn 18% 21% 10 9.
Slide 9: Consumers are spending 33% more than in 2019
Despite the lower rate, it’s still having a compounding effect for consumers $100 in 2019…. $133 $124 $105 $111 $100 Consumers are spending 33% more in the past Unit Price % Increase +5.0% +6.1% +11.1% +7.1% 3+ years (CA 22% more) 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD' 23 Source: NielsenIQ, Total US xAOC, Annual
Slide 10: Prices in the center of the store continue to rise faster
September 2023: Prices in the center of the store continue to rise faster than total CPG Department Inflation Heat Map Seafood -2% Meat Deli Bakery Unit Price % Change +2% +1% +4% Total CPG: +4% Baby Care +10% Household +6% > +5% Higher than average Produce Alcohol Health & Frozen +2% +2% Dry Grocer
Slide 11: From Cautious to Struggling
The Economic Divide - Tracking financial situations and responses Strugglers Rebounders Cautious Unchanged Thrivers From Cautious . to Struggling 25.4% 16.1% 32.7% 17.9% 7.8% Jan 2022 The cautious middle falls– 17.1% 10.5% 42.3% 22.7% 7.4% Jun 2022 greatest shifts seen from this segment into the mos
Slide 12: Consumers adopt strategies to manage CPG spending
Recent inflationary pressures have led consumers to adopt a range of strategies to manage their CPG spending Top saving strategies for FMCG Stop buying certain products to focus just on essentials 31 Monitor the cost of my overall basket of goods 30 Buy whatever brand is on promotion 30 Buy in bulk
Slide 13: These saving strategies are fueling CPG sales growth
These saving strategies are fueling CPG sales growth % of Dollar Growth Contribution $ Market Share and % Chg Price Increases 102.7% 100.0% +5 Value Retailers 63.8% 42.6% +8 Promotions 51.3% 26.1% +11 Private Label 29.9% 19.3% +8 Source: NielsenIQ, Total U.S, xAOC, Latest 52 weeks September 30, 2023
Slide 14: Spending headwinds heading into Q4
Spending headwinds heading into Q4. Larger economies threatened by… Headwinds • Soaring global public debt • Gas & oil costs 37% 32% 70% spiking • Extreme weather Worse Off in U.S. Focusing on of China’s HH events continued essentials in U.S. wealth in real estate impact • Compounding inflation Curr
Slide 15: Holiday scorecard
Holiday scorecard Our predictions: More 55% vs. 46% in US gifting trade-offs of global consumers only buy what they know they’ll use to avoid waste Earlier 56% of global consumers plan ahead before shopping preparations shopping “As consumers worldwide grapple with the challenges of 82-84% rising co
Slide 17: Moderate portion of annual spending driven by international holidays
Moderate portion of annual spending driven by international holidays Occasions focused on family gatherings see higher levels of consumer spending CPG Sales Index by Holiday period Sales value index of holiday weeks vs average weekly sales Chinese New Year 132 21% Ramadan 122 Christmas 118 Easter 10
Slide 18: Moderate portion of annual spending driven by holidays (U.S.)
Moderate portion of annual spending driven by international holidays Occasions focused on family gatherings see higher levels of consumer spending CPG Sales Index by Holiday period Sales value index of holiday week vs average weekly sales Christmas 128 15% Thanksgiving 109 Easter 109 July 4th 107 of
Slide 19: Americans spent more in holiday weeks last year
Last year during Thanksgiving & Christmas, Americans spent more in each holiday week vs. shopping in advance, but costs of living this year may force earlier / planned shopping Dollar Sales Index* 2022 / 2021 This year: 56% of US consumers say they plan ahead before shopping Total CPG – US Market Tu
Slide 20: Consumers still challenged by compounding price increases
Recent deceleration, yet consumers still challenged by compounding price increases over time Globally, overall CPG “Inflation rate” remains over 3X as high as 2021 Monthly Global Price Changes – Total CPG & Key Categories Total CPG Confection & Snacks Shelf Stable Food Frozen Food Fresh Food Health
Slide 21: Spending limited by compounded costs of festive staples
Overall spending will be limited by the compounded costs of buying everyday festive staples Scenarios of compounded costs: using illustrative products in 2022 against measured price changes today (Jul 2023) and scenarios of Low (3%), Mid (5%) and High (10%) compounded inflation into 2024 Dessert Mix
Slide 23: The distress of doomerism will limit year-end spending
The distress of “doomerism” will limit year-end spending Drives practical, pragmatic, purposeful consumerism – a “needed” reset to many ways of living today “Doomerism” 18% are less interested in achieving certain Consumers may carry a disbelief in the possibilities ahead and life milestones same as
Slide 24: CPG poised to benefit from socializing
CPG poised to benefit from socializing Premium fresh foods are a socializing luxury Top spending habits of those who will spend MORE on These consumers are most likely to upgrade to a better socializing meat or seafood option this holiday season Buy more premium/quality ingredients for at-home 58 Me
Slide 25: Holiday opportunity: Necessities as gifts
Holiday opportunity: Necessities as gifts Innovative packaging, product bundles and messaging to help connect everyday items to affordable holiday moments Everyday groceries positioned as gifts. 17% Read more: PH. of those who plan to spend less on celebrations / special occasions, will replace stor
Slide 27: Only a concentrated group plans to increase celebratory spending
Only a concentrated group of consumers plan to increase celebratory spending this year Pressured consumers are seeking to maintain and manage holiday spending as best possible this year Holiday celebrations & special occasions Socializing / gatherings 84% 82% Will spend the same, Will spend the same
Slide 28: Those who plan to spend more will double down on gifting
Those who DO plan to spend more on the holidays, will double down on gifting allocation Top Celebratory SPENDING Habits – among those who plan to SPEND MORE on holiday celebrations & special occasions Future spending on: Holiday celebrations & special occasions Buy higher value gifts for the people
Slide 29: Celebratory cost-cutting starts with the self
Celebratory cost-cutting starts with the SELF – consumers will limit themselves before others Top Celebratory SAVING Habits – among those who plan to SPEND LESS on holiday celebrations & special occasions Future spending on: Holiday celebrations & special occasions Buy fewer presents (or nothing) fo
Slide 31: Consumers most confident opting for private label food staples
Consumers feel most confidence opting for private label food staples (e.g. rice, canned goods, flour) Perceptions of efficacy Willingness to pay a premium 35% say that private label products are higher or equal quality vs. name brands 21% say they’re willing to pay the same or more for a private lab
Slide 32: Private label sales have yet to out-perform
Private Label Share of Sales – Annual total vs. holiday-weeks total Private label Shelf Stable Food Shelf Stable Food sales have yet Annual Total Holiday Period Annual Total Holiday Period to out-perform during many holiday 35% 34% 24% 22% moments 19% 17% 9% 8% Christmas Ramadan Easter Halloween Fra
Slide 33: 2023: The fiercest festive showdown
With CPG prices continuing to rise, we can expect private label share to increase this holiday season U.S. Private Label Dollar Share Forecast 22 2023: The 19.3 19.4 19.0 19.1 19.6 20 18.4 18.6 18.6 18.9 18.1 18 19.2* fiercest festive *Actual 16 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22 Q1 '23 Q2 '2
Slide 35: Intensified promo pressure during holiday periods
Intensified promo pressure during holiday periods like Christmas and Easter As scale of promotional support grows during key holiday moments, efficiency of promos must be monitored CPG % of Sales on Promotion MAT Christmas Easter 43.8 42.1 41.3 36.0 35.8 32.8 32.4 31.0 30.1 26.3 27.9 27.8 26.5 26.3
Slide 36: The rising need to recalibrate promotions
The rising need to recalibrate promotions: Using the U.S. as an example, increasing promotional sales due to demand for savings, but promotions are becoming less effective. % Sold on Promotion Promotion Effectiveness Promotions have been gaining momentum Less effective with higher levels of subsidiz
Slide 37: Online sales pick up following post-pandemic stabilization
Online sales pick up following periods of post-pandemic stabilization E-commerce performance % annual sales growth vs Year Ago Europe East Europe North America West Europe Asia Pacific and China Global 9.7% Europe 10.1% Western Europe 7.2% 38.5% Eastern Europe 26.7% 15.3% 12.7% 11.4% Asia Pacific an
Slide 38: Less in-store assortment may force more consumers online
With less assortment in-store, it may force more consumers online this holiday season Total In-store Assortment % Change Omni CPG* Dollar Sales: +9% Total Online (+1.0 pts) Avg # of items Carried: 20.7k +17% 16.8% Total CPG -1% Food +1% Non-Food -3% 83.2% In-store (-1.0 pts) +8% Source: NIQ US Omni
Slide 39: Tracking the omni impact of holiday favorites in America
Tracking the omni impact of holiday favorites in America A full view of omnisales shows key channel strengths of festive categories Faster Online Growth Faster Offline Growth Omni $ % Growth Omni $ % Change Category Annual $ Annual Sales In-Store Online Category $ Sales In-Store Online Cocktail Mixe
Slide 40: Take Action: Holiday Leadership Guidance
Outcomes to anticipate: Friction between “wants” and “needs” Polarized consumer demands; some express desires to save and survive, others will indulge to make up for a pressured year Take Action: Resilient deal finders Holiday Leadership Thrifty consumers will double-down on savings events and sales

NIQ Global Intelligence — NIQ 2023 Global Holiday Outlook Webinar on 6ix

NIQ Global Intelligence — NIQ 2023 Global Holiday Outlook Webinar

Slide 1: Holiday Outlook 2023

Slide 2: U.S. CPG Industry Update

Slide 3: The global state of evolved consumers

Slide 4: YTD '23 CPG sales growth continues to trend lower

Slide 5: 6 factors contributing to volume sales decline

Slide 6: September's CPG prices continue to rise, up +3.7%

Slide 7: CPG price increases are finally aligned with CPI

Slide 8: Global CPG inflation still trending higher than the U.S.

Slide 9: Consumers are spending 33% more than in 2019

Slide 10: Prices in the center of the store continue to rise faster

Slide 11: From Cautious to Struggling

Slide 12: Consumers adopt strategies to manage CPG spending

Slide 13: These saving strategies are fueling CPG sales growth

Slide 14: Spending headwinds heading into Q4

Slide 15: Holiday scorecard

Slide 16: Trade-offs: Celebrating through the Inflation Long Haul

Slide 17: Moderate portion of annual spending driven by international holidays

Slide 18: Moderate portion of annual spending driven by holidays (U.S.)

Slide 19: Americans spent more in holiday weeks last year

Slide 20: Consumers still challenged by compounding price increases

Slide 21: Spending limited by compounded costs of festive staples

Slide 22: Mindset shifts: Holiday hot spots of consumer resilience

Slide 23: The distress of doomerism will limit year-end spending

Slide 24: CPG poised to benefit from socializing

Slide 25: Holiday opportunity: Necessities as gifts

Slide 26: Spending Intentions: 'Tis the season for calculated spending

Slide 27: Only a concentrated group plans to increase celebratory spending

Slide 28: Those who plan to spend more will double down on gifting

Slide 29: Celebratory cost-cutting starts with the self

Slide 30: Branding: Festive pressures on private label

Slide 31: Consumers most confident opting for private label food staples

Slide 32: Private label sales have yet to out-perform

Slide 33: 2023: The fiercest festive showdown

Slide 34: Promotions: Omni growth beyond seasonal prices

Slide 35: Intensified promo pressure during holiday periods

Slide 36: The rising need to recalibrate promotions

Slide 37: Online sales pick up following post-pandemic stabilization

Slide 38: Less in-store assortment may force more consumers online

Slide 39: Tracking the omni impact of holiday favorites in America

Slide 40: Take Action: Holiday Leadership Guidance

Slide 41: © 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. © 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All