Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd. · ASX:TGF
Tribeca Global Natural Resources — Investor Presentation (March 2025)
39 slides from Tribeca Global Natural Resources's investor presentation, Mar 3, 2025
Slide 1: Investor Update – ASX cover letter
3 March 2025 ASX Market Announcements ASX Limited 20 Bridge Street Sydney NSW 2000 BY ELECTRONIC LODGEMENT For personal use only Investor Update – February 2025 Please find attached the Investor Update Presentation. The information contained in this document has been prepared for use in conjunction
Slide 2: Tribeca Global Natural Resources Ltd Investor Update February 2025
Tribeca Global Natural For personal use only Resources Ltd (ASX:TGF) Ben Cleary, Portfolio Manager Todd Warren, Partner Investor Update February 2025 Private And Confidential. Not For Public Distribution. 1 February 2025
Slide 3: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared for Tribeca Global Natural Resources Limited (ABN 16 627 596 418) (“TGF”) by its investment manager, Tribeca Global Resources Pty Ltd (ABN 11 606 707 662) (“Tribeca”) under AFS License 239070 (Tribeca Investment Partners Pty Ltd). The information contai
Slide 4: Executive Summary agenda
For personal use only Executive Summary 4 Market Structure Improving 10 China’s Policy Pivot 12 Positioning Reversal 18 Fundamentals Increasingly Attractive 26 Appendix 33
Slide 5: Executive Summary
Executive Summary • January’s return of ~6% brings TGF broadly flat for FY25. Despite generating positive returns from our relative value and special situations strategies, our net length across fundamental positions dragged on returns, specifically in base metals, For personal use only diversified
Slide 6: Performance Update
Performance Update FY Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun YTD 2018 - 2019 -0.07% -0.36% -0.71% 0.16% -0.44% -0.16% 0.25% -3.24% 0.78% -3.78% For personal use only 2019 - 2020 -0.52% -1.93% -0.54% 0.60% 0.79% 3.67% -7.68% -7.52% -9.48% 5.74% 0.47% -13.96% -27.95% 2020 - 2021 4.52% -0.19%
Slide 7: Tribeca Portfolio Provides Risk Controlled Exposure to Structural Themes
Tribeca Portfolio Provides Risk Controlled Exposure to Structural Themes Tribeca portfolio provides investors with diversified & risk-controlled exposure to structural themes compared to indices and single sector names. For personal use only S&P GSCI Index Percentage Sector Weights (2024) Energy ~45
Slide 8: Delivering Shareholder Returns Through Active Engagement
Delivering Shareholder Returns Through Active Engagement $50 Tribeca Key Proposals Outcome For personal use only Divest US onshore oil assets Sold for US$10.5bn $40 Return capital to shareholders Dividend raised +93% $30 New CEO, CFO and Chairman New CEO, CFO, Chair $20 Leave DLC structure intact Ef
Slide 9: Special Situations Alpha Lifts in Periods of Higher ECM Activity
Special Situations Alpha Lifts in Periods of Higher ECM Activity Total value of mining equity raisings (US$m) GNR’s alpha generation from special situations is especially Rolling 12mth Average pronounced during periods of ECM activity growth 4,000 150% For personal use only Total Raisings - value (r
Slide 10: Opportunity to Benefit From Strong Fundamentals and Closing Discount to NTA
TGF: Opportunity to Benefit From Strong Fundamentals AND Closing Discount to NTA • TGF’s share price is currently ~20% below that of its net tangible assets (NTA) • This discount has more than doubled since late September 2024 while NTA has increased by 8% For personal use only • As seen in 2021-22,
Slide 11: Market Structure Improving
For personal use only Market Structure Improving
Slide 12: Market Structure Is Improving
Market Structure Is Improving China’s policy pivot continues to propel demand For personal use only • Recently announced stimulus package expected to expand in March • Fiscal expansion has historically pushed metal prices higher • The strategy returned ~150% in the last two stimulus fuelled rallies
Slide 13: China's Policy Pivot
For personal use only China’s Policy Pivot 12 February 2025
Slide 14: China's Policy Pivot Expected to Broaden in March 2025
China’s Policy Pivot Expected to Broaden in March 2025 Date Events Stimulus policies announced in China over the last few months: Early to mid-Dec 2025 Politburo meeting on economic policies For personal use only (1) Monetary policy measures Mid to late Dec 2024 Central Economic Work Conference • Re
Slide 15: China Property Market Looks to Have Bottomed
China Property Market Looks to Have Bottomed • New home sales picking up: Tier-1 cities sales increased 27% YoY since policy pivot in Sep 24, while that of 30-city was up ~6% For personal use only • Home price recovering: ~25 cities recorded a MoM uptick in Dec 25 and Jan 25 • Price expectation rese
Slide 16: Economy Has Capacity For Fiscal Stimulus
Economy Has Capacity For Fiscal Stimulus Augmented fiscal deficit (% of GDP) Gap between debt ceiling and outstanding (RMB bn) For personal use only 20 3,500 18 Other quasi-fiscal financing (LGFVs, PPP, etc.) Net revenue from local land sales Central Govt debt 3,000 General fiscal + govt. funds defi
Slide 17: Pushing Metal Prices Higher
Pushing Metal Prices Higher Copper vs Total Social Financing / GDP Iron Ore vs Total Social Financing / GDP 11,000 45% 45% 250 For personal use only China Total Social Financing to GDP 10,000 40% 40% 200 9,000 Copper Price (LHS) 35% 8,000 35% 150 7,000 30% 30% 100 6,000 25% 5,000 25% 50 20% 4,000 To
Slide 18: We Have Seen This Movie Before And It Has A Happy Ending
We Have Seen This Movie Before And It Has A Happy Ending • Fuelled by the recently announced stimulus package, the rally in Chinese equities continues to gain momentum • On average, the last five rallies in China have lasted more than 12 months and generated returns of +100% For personal use only •
Slide 19: Positioning Reversal
For personal use only Positioning Reversal 18 February 2025
Slide 20: Real Asset Valuations At Relative Extremes
Real Asset Valuations At Relative Extremes 1.1 Real Assets Relative To Financial Assets Since 1925 Rotation From Digital to Real Economy Underway 70 S&P500 sector market cap, % of total For personal use only 1 War on Inflation Real economy: industrials + financials + energy + materials Digital econo
Slide 21: Evolution of ESG policies will drive flow back into Resources
Evolution of “ESG” policies by BIG Asset Managers will drive flow BACK into Resources For personal use only The $12 trillion world’s largest asset manager has changed its tune on how it implements ESG policy. ESG 1.0 ESG 2.0 ESG 3.0 “move to divest thermal coal assets and “foresighted companies acro
Slide 22: Acceleration of Woke Unwind Suggests Shift Will Come in 25
Acceleration of “Woke Unwind” Suggests Shift Will Come in 2025 For personal use only ESG 4.0 Since December 2024, EIGHT of the world’s largest financial institutions have withdrawn from climate finance initiatives. What? Why? Blackrock announced it is leaving the Net The US political climate has rap
Slide 23: Energy a Key Beneficiary With Positioning Scorched Earth
Energy a Key Beneficiary With Positioning Scorched Earth Long Only and Hedge Fund Exposure to Energy is low vs history All styles are underweight Energy Funds’ relative weight in Energy vs S&P 500 index over time Fund Manager’s positioning in Energy sector, Dec 2024 For personal use only Weight Rati
Slide 24: M&M Equity Positioning Shaken Out After Three False Starts
M&M Equity Positioning Shaken Out After Three False Starts in Dec Q24 Metal and mining equities had three buying false starts in the fourth Long Only (LO) and Hedge Funds (HFs) have reduced exposure to quarter of 2024 into key China stimulus events materials as a result and will drive flows back in
Slide 25: Metal & Energy Producers Set to Return to Long Term Average Multiples
Metal & Energy Producers Set to Benefit, Return to Long Term Average Multiples The S&P Metals and Mining Index EV/EBITDA relative to the S&P Similarly, the EBITDA multiple for the broader energy sector is 1.2x 500 is one standard deviation below its long-term average trading at a record discount to
Slide 26: M&A Wave Playing Out: Corporates Recognising Value
M&A Wave Playing Out: Corporates Recognising Value Aggregate deal value up despite fewer transactions, • Ongoing supply challenges mean it remains cheaper to buy than build highlighting large M&A appetite and sector concentration • Increasingly strategic nature of assets creates more competitive lan
Slide 27: Fundamentals Increasingly Attractive
For personal use only Fundamentals Increasingly Attractive
Slide 28: Structural Deficits for Key Commodities
Structural Deficits for Key Commodities Mined Copper Supply and Demand Forecasts (incl. AI effects) Uranium Concentrate Supply and Demand Forecasts For personal use only 30,000 200,000 Demand UPPER Scenario incl. AI / Demand DCs 180,000 Existing Mines 28,000 Non-committed mine projects (@ 100%) Rest
Slide 29: Demand Growth Robust as China Grid Spend Accelerates
Demand Growth Robust as China Grid Spend Accelerates China’s State grid investment is accelerating and increasingly copper intensive Grid investment continues to underpin China’s copper demand growth State grid annual For personal use only Distribution as % total YoY change investment (Rmb bn) grid
Slide 30: Global Power Consumption Increasing as a Result of Electrification
Global Power Consumption Increasing as a Result of Electrification US Electricity Generation 5-year CAGR EU-27 Electricity Generation 5-year CAGR For personal use only 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% -1.0% -2.0% -2.0% 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 201
Slide 31: Supply Materially Constrained by Underinvestment and Lack of Discoveries
Supply Materially Constrained by Underinvestment and Lack of Discoveries Global Mining capex cycle and underinvestment in new supply Major Copper Discoveries Over Time US$bn USc/Ib Mt US$bn For personal use only 180 Diversified Aluminium 6.0 180 5.0 Copper Iron Ore Coal Battery Materials 4.5 160 160
Slide 32: Mine Development A Key Constraint, Particularly for Base Metals
Mine Development A Key Constraint, Particularly for Base Metals Average lead times of mines from discovery to production, 2002-2023 Copper and nickel mines take 6-24mths longer than the average to get from discovery to production For personal use only Discovery, exploration, studies Construction dec
Slide 33: NOW is the Time to Back Up the Truck
NOW is the Time to Back Up the Truck • We see most metal and energy markets in supply deficits for the For personal use only remainder of this decade after years of underinvestment in new supply coupled with robust demand growth. • Record low investor positioning in natural resource equities means r
Slide 34: Appendix
For personal use only Appendix 33 February 2025
Slide 35: Appendix: Strategy Features
Appendix: Strategy Features Actively Managed Constrained Leverage • Actively managed, specialized long short • Low gross positioning to achieve For personal use only strategy Variable Net <200% Gross superior risk adjusted returns with Exposure Exposure low correlation to major asset classes High Co
Slide 36: Appendix: Investment Universe
Appendix: Investment Universe A flexible approach enables allocation to sectors presenting the best risk-reward opportunities. Clean Energy & Transition Fuels Metals & Mining Soft Commodities For personal use only Oil & Gas Base Metals Crops Uranium Bulks Agriculture Hydrogen Specialty Metals Aquacu
Slide 37: Appendix: Investment Process
Appendix: Investment Process Investment Process Commodity Ranking Macro Overlay Fundamental Research Investment Idea Generation Implementation For personal use only • Global commodity demand and • Analysis of investor positioning • Sector and stock specific • Investments expressed based • High convi
Slide 38: Appendix: Sources of Alpha
Appendix: Sources of Alpha • Flexibility within the mandate to take advantage of different types of trades across the natural resources complex, depending on best risk- reward and market environment. For personal use only • Weighting of different types of trades will vary depending on prevailing mar
Slide 39: Investor Relations
For personal use only Investor Relations Email: TGFinvestors@tribecaip.com.au Web: www.tribecaip.com/lic Sydney Tribeca Investment Partners Pty Ltd Level 23, 1 O’Connell Street Sydney NSW 2000 Tel: +61 2 9640 2600 Singapore Tribeca Investment Partners Pte Ltd #16-01 Singapore Land Tower 50 Raffles P
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