Pinnacle West Capital Corporation · NYSE:PNW
Pinnacle West Capital — Credit Suisse Energy Summit 2013
60 slides from Pinnacle West Capital's conference presentation, Feb 5, 2013
Slide 1: Delivering Superior Shareholder Value
DELIVERING SUPERIOR SHAREHOLDER VALUE Credit Suisse Energy Summit February 5, 2013
Slide 2: Forward-Looking Statements
2 FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains forward-looking statements based on current expectations, including statements regarding our earnings guidance and financial outlook and goals. These forward-looking statements are often identified by words such as “estimate,” “predict,” “may,”
Slide 3: Pinnacle West: Who We Are
3 PINNACLE WEST: WHO WE ARE We are a vertically integrated, regulated electric utility. NYSE Ticker PNW Market Cap $6 Billion Enterprise Value $9 Billion Yield 4% STATE OF ARIZONA Principal Subsidiary • Arizona’s largest electric utility • $13 billion assets Service Territory CONTINENTAL UNITED STAT
Slide 4: Pinnacle West: Our Value Proposition
4 PINNACLE WEST: OUR VALUE PROPOSITION Our commitment to investors: Deliver superior shareholder returns through…
Slide 5: Pinnacle West: Our Value Proposition
5 PINNACLE WEST: OUR VALUE PROPOSITION
Slide 6: Positive Long-Term Demographics
6 POSITIVE LONG-TERM DEMOGRAPHICS APS’s customer growth generally outpaces U.S. and Arizona population growth. Superior Growth APS Customer Growth Annual Millions Growth 2 5% 1.8 4% 2.6%* 1.1 3% 1 2% 1% 0% 0 1995 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2011 2030 Pr
Slide 7: Long-Term Growth Drives Cap Ex
7 LONG-TERM GROWTH DRIVES CAP EX Investment is required throughout the business to meet expected demand growth APS Capital Expenditures by Function $ Millions 1,400 1,200 Other 1,000 Distribution 800 Transmission 600 Renewables Environmental 400 Traditional 200 Generation 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Slide 8: Solid Capital Recovery and Strong Rate Base Growth
SOLID CAPITAL RECOVERY AND 8 STRONG RATE BASE GROWTH We expect our rate base will grow 6% per year on average, and we have constructive recovery of capital expenditures. APS Capital Expenditures APS Rate Base Growth by Recovery Mechanism $ Millions $ Billions Year-End 1,400 10 1,200 8 1,000 Other Ca
Slide 9: Pinnacle West: Our Value Proposition
9 PINNACLE WEST: OUR VALUE PROPOSITION
Slide 10: Operational Highlights
10 OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS We focus on maintaining top-tier performance companywide. Customer Satisfaction Ranked 3rd highest nationally among 55 large investor-owned electric utilities in 2012 J.D. Power residential customer survey Strong Nuclear and Coal Baseload Resources 2012 capacity factors
Slide 11: Pinnacle West: Our Value Proposition
11 PINNACLE WEST: OUR VALUE PROPOSITION
Slide 12: Renewable Energy Rises with the Sun
12 RENEWABLE ENERGY RISES WITH THE SUN We are helping Arizona become the “Solar Capital of the World.” Arizona Arizona Germany and Japan are among countries with highest installed solar capacity, yet have solar conditions far inferior to Arizona MAKING COMPELLING CAPITAL INVESTMENTS
Slide 13: APS AZ Sun Program Provides Earnings Growth Potential
APS AZ SUN PROGRAM PROVIDES 13 EARNINGS GROWTH POTENTIAL Owning solar resources makes sense for our customers and environment and provides returns to our shareholders. • Up to 200 MW utility-scale photovoltaic solar plants owned by APS • Up to $975 million capital investment • In service 2011 throug
Slide 14: Four Corners Power Plant Proposed Plan
14 FOUR CORNERS POWER PLANT PROPOSED PLAN Our proposal represents a balanced solution to new environmental regulations. Economic, environmental and social benefits Acquire Southern California Edison’s 739 MW interest in Units 4 & 5 and shut down 560 MW Units 1 – 3 • Purchase price: $294 million (sub
Slide 15: Transmission Investment Essential
15 TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT ESSENTIAL Strategic transmission is necessary to maintain reliability and deliver diversified resources to our customers. NAVAJO FOUR • 10-Year Transmission Plan NORTH CORNERS 100 MW (115-kV and above) 970 MW • $550 million of new BAGDAD YOUNGS CHOLLA transmission investme
Slide 16: Pinnacle West: Our Value Proposition
16 PINNACLE WEST: OUR VALUE PROPOSITION
Slide 17: 2012 Retail Rate Case Settlement Key Provisions
2012 RETAIL RATE CASE SETTLEMENT 17 KEY PROVISIONS – OTHER THAN BASE RATES Key provisions continue constructive regulatory treatment and limit regulatory lag. • Post test-year plant additions – 15 months’ additions included in rate base • Constructive new or modified adjustment mechanisms • Lost Fix
Slide 18: Pinnacle West: Our Value Proposition
18 PINNACLE WEST: OUR VALUE PROPOSITION
Slide 19: ROE Improvement: A Multi-Pronged Approach
19 ROE IMPROVEMENT: A MULTI-PRONGED APPROACH Improving our earned return on equity is one of our top priorities. Earned ROEs Key Initiatives 10% • Supportive electric utility rates At least 9.5% annually • Regulatory framework 9% improvements • Cost management initiatives 8% • Efficiency and effecti
Slide 20: Strong Cost Management Focus
20 STRONG COST MANAGEMENT FOCUS Our goal is to keep O&M growth in line with retail sales growth. APS O&M Expense Trends $ Millions 800 • Solid achievements to date • Initiatives 600 • Company-wide benchmarking and evaluations 400 • Workforce attrition opportunities 200 • Knowledge transfer • Process
Slide 21: Effective Cost Management Initiatives
21 EFFECTIVE COST MANAGEMENT INITIATIVES A variety of initiatives have been helping control operating and capital costs. Sustainable Cost Management Initiative Fossil Generation Realignment Palo Verde Unit Production Cost Reductions Enterprise-wide Supply Chain Management Corporate Efficiency Study
Slide 22: Sustainable Cost Management Initiative (SCMI)
22 SUSTAINABLE COST MANAGEMENT INITIATIVE (“SCMI”) Continued success requires a more rigorous, standardized approach to running the business. Motivation Sustainable Changes • Recognize combined challenges Tiered Metrics • Costs • Capital Business Planning • Sales growth • Regulatory stay-out Corpora
Slide 23: Common Dividend Outlook
23 COMMON DIVIDEND OUTLOOK Our financial results facilitate growing cash returns to our shareholders Dividend Growth Goal Indicated Annual Dividend Rate at Year-End $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.18* $2.10 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Projected * Increase effective 4th quarter
Slide 24: Superior Shareholder Returns
24 SUPERIOR SHAREHOLDER RETURNS Our total return to shareholders has outperformed our industry and the broad market over the past five years. Pinnacle West S&P 500 S&P 1500 Electric Utilities 65% 60.6% 55% 57.8% 45% 35% 36.2% 34.4% 25% 26.9% 21.5% 15% 18.4% 15.9% 8.5% 10.3% 5% 0.1% (5.0)% (1.1)% 1 Y
Slide 25: Pinnacle West: Our Value Proposition
25 PINNACLE WEST: OUR VALUE PROPOSITION Our commitment to investors… Delivering Superior Shareholder Returns
Slide 26: Appendix
APPENDIX wee PINNACLE WEST CAPITAL CORPORATION
Slide 27: A Respected, Veteran Leadership Team
27 A RESPECTED, VETERAN LEADERSHIP TEAM Our top executives have more than 130 combined years of creating shareholder value in the energy industry. Don Brandt Chairman & CEO Jim Jim Don Mark Randy Jeff Hatfield Hatfield Robinson Schiavoni Edington Guldner EVP APS EVP EVP & SVP SVP & CFO & CFO Preside
Slide 28: Positive Near-Term Trends
28 POSITIVE NEAR-TERM TRENDS Arizona’s economy is reflecting more sustained growth and activity. Non-Farm Job Growth Metro Phoenix Vacant Housing Year-Over- APS Service Territory Year Change 10.0% 40,000 8.0% 35,000 6.0% 30,000 4.0% 25,000 2.0% 0.0% 20,000 (2.0)% 15,000 (4.0)% 10,000 (6.0)% 5,000 (8
Slide 29: Foreclosure Headwinds Winding Down
29 FORECLOSURE HEADWINDS WINDING DOWN Metro Phoenix home foreclosure sales are the lowest since 2007. Existing Single Family Home Sales Key Trends 120,000 45% 40% • Existing home sales activity 100,000 remains robust 35% • Investor interest peaked in Q1 80,000 30% 2012 25% • 20% of market Q1 60,000
Slide 30: New Home Market Breathing Again
30 NEW HOME MARKET BREATHING AGAIN Metro Phoenix new home construction beginning to see benefits from lower vacancies and higher prices in existing housing. New Home Sales & Single Family Permits Key Trends 30,000 • After three very weak sales 25,000 years, Metro Phoenix new home construction is tur
Slide 31: Positive Near-Term Trends
31 POSITIVE NEAR-TERM TRENDS Housing and non-residential sectors are showing steady improvement. Home Prices Nonresidential Building Vacancy Value Relative to Jan ‘05 Vacancy Rate 175 25% Office 150 20% Industrial 125 15% 100 10% Retail 75 5% 50 0% '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
Slide 32: 2012 – 2015 Financial Outlook
32 2012 – 2015 FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Key Drivers and Assumptions as of November 9, 2012 • 2012 retail rate settlement effective July 1, 2012 • Revenue provisions • Retail base rate changes effective July 1, 2012 • Adjustment mechanisms • Four Corners acquisition • AZ Sun additions to flow through RES un
Slide 33: 2012 – 2015 Financial Outlook (continued)
33 2012 – 2015 FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Key Drivers and Assumptions as of November 9, 2012 (continued) • Modestly improving Arizona and U.S. economic conditions • Retail customer growth to average 2% annually • Weather-normalized retail electricity sales volume growth: • Relatively flat after customer cons
Slide 34: Ready Access to Capital
34 READY ACCESS TO CAPITAL Strong access to capital resources is supported by solid credit ratings, manageable debt maturities and ample liquidity. 2012 Major Financing Activities APS Long-Term Debt Maturities • $375M APS senior notes refinancing $ Millions $450 • Remarketing of $32M Maricopa 2009B
Slide 35: Solid Credit Ratings
35 SOLID CREDIT RATINGS Available liquidity remains substantial and our credit ratings have improved. APS Parent Credit Facilities and Liquidity* Corporate Credit Capacity Ratings Borrower ($ Millions) Maturities Moody’s Baa1 Baa2 APS $ 500 Feb. ’15 S&P BBB+ BBB+ APS 500 Nov. ’16 Fitch BBB BBB Senio
Slide 36: S&P Credit Metrics
36 S&P CREDIT METRICS Our key credit metrics have been improving. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 APS FFO / Debt 17.2% 22.1% 22.8% 22.3% 20.8% FFO / Interest 4.1x 5.1x 4.8x 4.6x 4.6X Debt / Capitalization 55.2% 57.4% 56.8% 53.0% 53.0% Pinnacle West FFO / Debt 15.7% 18.0% 18.4% 22.5% 20.3% FFO / Interest 3.
Slide 37: Attractive Dividend Yield
37 ATTRACTIVE DIVIDEND YIELD Pinnacle West’s annual dividend is $2.18 per share — providing a solid yield. Dividend Yield 7% 6% PNW 5% 4% 3% Industry Averages 2% 1% 0% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Yield as of December 31, 2012 Dividend Payout Payout 12 Months Ended September 30, 2012 STRENGTHENI
Slide 38: U.S. Nuclear Operating Costs
38 U.S. NUCLEAR OPERATING COSTS Palo Verde operating costs are below industry averages and improving. Dollars per Megawatt-Hour Industry Average Industry Median 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Projected* *As of November 9, 2012 STRENGTHENING OUR FINANCIAL PROFILE
Slide 39: Environmental, Sustainability and Governance Leadership
39 ENVIRONMENTAL, SUSTAINABILITY AND GOVERNANCE LEADERSHIP We are recognized internationally for our achievements. Rated 4th Highest Intelligent Ranked on Dow Jones Utility in 2011 North America Sustainability Index since 2005 Environmental Certification Gas/Oil Fleet – 2011 Coal Fleet - 2012 1st ut
Slide 40: Customer Satisfaction: A Key Priority
40 CUSTOMER SATISFACTION: A KEY PRIORITY Our employees provide top-tier customer service. Lowering Outage Time Outstanding Residential Per Customer Customer Satisfaction Rating Average Outage Rating Minutes/Year 700 120 APS 675 100 650 Industry Average 80 625 600 60 575 40 550 20 525 0 500 2007 2008
Slide 41: Superior Power Plant Performance
41 SUPERIOR POWER PLANT PERFORMANCE Our nuclear and coal plants are strong baseload resources. Nuclear Capacity Factors Coal Performance Metrics APS 91% 100% 100% APS Commercial Availability 91% APS Capacity Factor 90% 90% Industry Capacity Factor 80% 80% 80% 63% 70% Industry 91% 70% 60% 60% 2003 20
Slide 42: 2011 Retail Customer, Sales and Revenue Mixes
42 2011 RETAIL CUSTOMER, SALES AND REVENUE MIXES Our business mix is attractive due to favorable climate and other conditions in our market area. 11% 11% 8% 6% 8% 47% 47% 50% 51% 45% 45% 42% 43% 89% 89% Customers Retail Sales Operating Revenues Year-End 28,210 GWh $3.0 Billion 1.1 Million Residentia
Slide 43: 2011 APS Generation and Energy Fuel Mixes
43 2011 APS GENERATION AND ENERGY FUEL MIXES Our balanced resource mix provides our customers reliability and manages price volatility. 1% 18% 21% 19% 21% 18% 27% 26% 22% 34% 32% 54% 17% 53% 17% 28% 28% 37% 45%4 6 % 36% Energy Generation Generation Fuel Mix Fuel Mix Capacity Mix 33,407 GWh 27,055 GW
Slide 44: Arizona Corporation Commissioners
44 ARIZONA CORPORATION COMMISSIONERS Three seats for four-year terms through January 2017 were addressed in the November 2012 election. Terms To January 2017 Terms To January 2015 New Commissioners Incumbents Susan Bob Bob Stump (R)* Brenda Gary Bitter-Smith (R) Burns (R) Chairman Burns (R) Pierce (
Slide 45: 2012 Retail Rate Case Settlement Key Benefits
2012 RETAIL RATE CASE SETTLEMENT 45 KEY BENEFITS The settlement contains a number of benefits for shareholders and customers. Shareholder Benefits • Regulatory certainty • Base rate stay-out until at least mid-2016 • Rate gradualism through adjustment mechanisms • Financial support APS needs to achi
Slide 46: 2012 Retail Rate Case Settlement Key Financial Provisions
2012 RETAIL RATE CASE SETTLEMENT 46 KEY FINANCIAL PROVISIONS – BASE RATES & TIMING The provisions of the settlement became effective July 1, 2012, as originally requested by APS. Annual Revenue Change Annualized Base Rate Revenue Changes ($ millions) Non-fuel base rate increase $ 116.3 Fuel-related
Slide 47: 2012 Retail Rate Case Settlement Key Financial Assumptions
2012 RETAIL RATE CASE SETTLEMENT 47 KEY FINANCIAL ASSUMPTIONS Updated rate base, cost of capital and fuel prices underpin the settlement amounts. Rate base $5.7 billion Allowed return on equity 10% Capital structure Long-term debt 46.1% Common equity 53.9% Base fuel rate (¢/kWh) 3.21¢ Projected fuel
Slide 48: 2009 Regulatory Settlement Positioned APS Well Through 2012
48 2009 REGULATORY SETTLEMENT POSITIONED APS WELL THROUGH 2012 APS’s 2009 regulatory settlement contained a number of investor benefits. • Strengthened APS’s earned ROE and financial condition • Supported common dividend • Demonstrated increased cooperation among APS, ACC Staff, residential consumer
Slide 49: 2009 Regulatory Settlement Summary
49 2009 REGULATORY SETTLEMENT SUMMARY The settlement provisions included earnings support until APS’s next rate case decision. Estimated Pretax Earnings Benefits* $ Millions 2010 2011 2012 Settlement agreement terms Base rate increase $ 207 $ 207 $ 207 Line extensions treated as revenue 23 25 49 Pen
Slide 50: Our Regulatory Mix
50 OUR REGULATORY MIX The bulk of APS’s revenues comes from a regulated retail rate base and a meaningful transmission business. $6.9 Billion Total Approved Rate Base Most Recent Rate Decisions ACC FERC Rate Effective Dates 7/1/2012 6/1/2012 Test Year Ended 12/31/2010* 12/31/2011 Rate Base $5.7 B $1
Slide 51: Constructive Transmission Rate Regulation
51 CONSTRUCTIVE TRANSMISSION RATE REGULATION We have achieved transmission rate treatment with annual adjustments. • FERC Formula Rates adopted in 2008 • Adjusted annually with 10.75% allowed ROE • Based on FERC Form 1 and certain projections • Retail portion flows through ACC Transmission Cost Adju
Slide 52: Significant Regulatory Progress
52 SIGNIFICANT REGULATORY PROGRESS We have achieved a more supportive regulatory structure and improvements in cost recovery timing. Adopted/ Mechanism Last Adjusted Description Power Supply April 2005 / • Recovers variance between actual fuel and purchased power costs and base fuel rate Adjustor (“
Slide 53: A Well-Balanced Generation Portfolio
53 A WELL-BALANCED GENERATION PORTFOLIO Ownership Net Capacity Fuel / Plant Location Units Dispatch Commercial Ops. Date Interest1 (MW) Nuclear Palo Verde Wintersburg, AZ 1-3 Base 1986 - 1989 29.1% 1,146 Total Nuclear 1,146 Coal Cholla Joseph City, AZ 1-3 Base 1962 - 1980 100 647 Four Corners Farmin
Slide 54: Resource Planning for Reliability and Sustainability
54 RESOURCE PLANNING FOR RELIABILITY AND SUSTAINABILITY We will meet future load growth through a balanced resource mix including renewable resources and energy efficiency programs. MW 14,000 Load Requirement 3% Four Corners Transactions, Net Including Reserves 12,000 21% Future Energy Efficiency 24
Slide 55: Four Corners Power Plant Facts & Figures
55 FOUR CORNERS POWER PLANT FACTS & FIGURES Common Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 Unit 4 Unit 5 Commercial Operation Date 1963 1963 1964 1969 1970 Original Cost ($M) $41 $382 $164 Net Book Value at 6/30/12 ($M) $27 $0 $130 Current Depreciation Ends 2038 Mid-2012 2038 2038 Current Expiration Dates Site Lease J
Slide 56: Arizona's Renewable Resource and Energy Efficiency Standards
56 ARIZONA’S RENEWABLE RESOURCE AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY STANDARDS Our programs address Arizona’s aggressive renewable energy and energy efficiency standards. Renewable Energy (RES) Minimum Requirements Portion of retail sales to be supplied by renewable resources • 5% by 2015 • 15% by 2025 Distributed
Slide 57: AZ Sun Program Summary
57 AZ SUN PROGRAM SUMMARY APS is investing in up to 200 MW of solar generation. Actual or Name Location Capacity Developer Target COD* Paloma Gila Bend, AZ 17 MW First Solar Sept. 2011 Cotton Center Gila Bend, AZ 17 MW Solon Oct. 2011 Hyder I Phase 1 Hyder, AZ 11 MW SunEdison Oct. 2011 Hyder I Phase
Slide 58: Renewable Purchase Power Contracts
58 RENEWABLE PURCHASE POWER CONTRACTS Commercial Owner/ PPA Operation Term Capacity 1 Fuel / Contract Location Developer Status Signed Date (years) Net (MW) Solar Solana Gila Bend, AZ Abengoa UC Feb-2008 2013 30 250 Ajo Ajo, AZ Duke Energy Gen Svcs IO Jan-2010 2011 25 5 Prescott Prescott, AZ SunEdis
Slide 59: Solana: A "Sunny Place"
59 SOLANA: A “SUNNY PLACE” Solana will provide more than one-quarter of APS’s renewable energy target by 2015. • 250-MW 30-year PPA for all output (~900 GWh/year) • Concentrating solar trough facility 70 miles southwest of Phoenix • On target for 2013 commercial operation • 90%+ on-peak capacity fac
Slide 60: APS Energy Efficiency Initiatives
60 APS ENERGY EFFICIENCY INITIATIVES APS plans to continue increasing customers’ energy efficiency savings. Cumulative Annual Energy Savings Associated with EE/DSM Programs GWh • Portion of lost revenue to be 2,750 recovered through retail rate 2,500 adjustor beginning July 1, 2012 2,250 • Program c
Pinnacle West Capital — Credit Suisse Energy Summit 2013 on 6ix