Slide 1: Présentation SFAF - Comptes annuels 2019
Groupe ABC arbitrage Présentation SFAF - Comptes annuels 2019 "Coronavirus, la fièvre d'un samedi soir ?" ABC arbitrage 1
Slide 2: Avertissement
AVERTISSEMENT Ce slideshow est un support de communication daté du 24 mars 2020 et publié sur le site abc-arbitrage.com Ces éléments d’information sont donnés à des fins d’illustration mais ne substituent aux documents officiels relatifs à l’exercice 2019. ABC arbitrage 2
Slide 3: S&P 500 vs CAC 40
S&P 500 vs CAC 40 End of a 100 Year Record (2nd) ? After more than 10 years of “easy return” ABC arbitrage 3
Slide 4: Market parameters and Historic ABC activity
Market parameters and Historic ABC activity ABC arbitrage 4
Slide 5: Top 3 Market Parameters on ABC activity
Top 3 Market Parameters on ABC activity Volatility M&A and Corporate Actions Volumes trades on markets ABC arbitrage 5
Slide 6: Historical VIX since 01/2015
Historical VIX since 01/2015 Main Events ABC arbitrage 6
Slide 7: Intraday volatility 2018 2019 less of a dead market
Intraday volatility 2018 From 1982, 64 days < 4%: 1 day in 2016, 57 days in 2019 less of a “dead market” 2017 and 6 daysthan the in 2018 (all record year of 2017 but... in January) 2019 ABC arbitrage 7
Slide 8: 2015/2016 Vix Level
2015/2016 Vix Level 2017 2019 ABC arbitrage 8
Slide 9: Monthly market cap of existing stable and friendly offers
Évolution somme mensuelle des capi en Md€ des offres FUSACQ existantes stables et amicales Trump Paradigm America First Policy Shut down 2019 Average Market Cap = 411,000M€ ABC arbitrage
Slide 10: Mechanical Corporate actions opportunities
Mechanical Corporate actions opportunities Strong Decrease of Corporate Actions Private Equity domination Low Rate Financing Groupe ABC arbitrage 10
Slide 11: S&P 500 Volumes $ & Number of Shares
S&P 500 Volumes $ & Number of Shares Still low Equity Volumes in quantity of Shares Groupe ABC arbitrage 11
Slide 12: ABC arbitrage - Consolidated Net Profits, ROE
ABC arbitrage - Consolidated Net Profits 31/12/2019 31/12/2018 In EUR million Change IFRS IFRS Investment Services Fees 14,4 16,8 -13,9% Net gains at fair value through profit or loss 22,6 23,3 -3,2% Net revenues 37,0 40,1 -7,7% -12,0 ROE Payroll costs -13,1 -8,8% Occupancy costs -1,3 -1,6 -15,7% Ot
Slide 13: Consistent financial results vs Markets parameters
Know-how ABC Markets Parameters FY2019 & FY2018 Consistent financial results vs Markets parameters ABC arbitrage 13
Slide 14: SP500 20 days Volatility and ABC Business Level
SP500 20 days Volatility and ABC Business Level Still strong volatility correlation for Net Revenues ABC arbitrage 14
Slide 15: ABCG monthly returns
ABCG monthly returns Loi du “100% mois positifs” ABC Positive Month Corner Stone still there ABC arbitrage 15
Slide 16: Asset Management
Asset Management Groupe ABC arbitrage 16
Slide 17: AUM slightly below Target SU2019 of 400M€
AUM slightly below Target SU2019 of 400M€ 01/03/2020 Groupe ABC arbitrage 17
Slide 18: ABCA Reversion Fund
ABCA Reversion Fund Au 29/02/2020 Since 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Launch Net Performance / Annualized ($) 18.2% 21.6% 2.6% 2.0% 8.8% 9.1% 1.6% 2.1% 7.5% 2.9% -2.1% 6.1% Net Performance / Annualized (€) 18.2% 21.6% 2.5% 1.9% 8.8% 8.6% 0.8% 0.6% 5.3% 0.5% -2.5% 6.3% Positi
Slide 19: ABCA Opportunities Fund
ABCA Opportunities Fund Au 29/02/2020 Since 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2010 Net Performance / Annualized ($) 16.6% 17.5% -1.5% 1.7% 4.6% 9.7% 13.0% 4.6% 4.9% 7.0% -1.4% 6.3% Net Performance / Annualized (€) 16.6% 17.5% -1.6% 1.6% 4.6% 9.2% 12.3% 2.9% 2.8% 4.6% -1.7% 6.7%
Slide 20: Return on AUM
Return on AUM ...but under our 4% Target (Perf. problem) Groupe ABC arbitrage 20
Slide 21: Clients Revenue
Clients Revenue Perf Fees Business Model Need AUM under Low Vol. Markets Groupe ABC arbitrage 21
Slide 22: Costs
Costs Groupe ABC arbitrage 22
Slide 23: Wage inflation R&D +10% / year
Wage inflation R&D +10% / year 2014-2018 = Increasing R&D Team Decrease of shareholding prg 2018 & 2019 Slight decrease of people (-7) Groupe ABC arbitrage 23
Slide 24: Strong IT Cost Management
Strong IT Cost Management Groupe ABC arbitrage 24
Slide 25: 2019 Situation
2019 Situation Groupe ABC arbitrage 25
Slide 26: Consolidated Equity Capital - Since 01/01/2010
Consolidated Equity Capital - Since 01/01/2010 Consistent Equity Capital ABC arbitrage 26
Slide 27: Indicator of the Employment of Capital
Indicator of the Employment of Capital In line with 2016 decisions / Step Up 2019 Negative Rate = Costs estimation of 600K€ on Net Revenues ABC arbitrage 27
Slide 28: Strong ROE but absolute € value under ABC ambitions
Strong ROE but absolute € value under ABC ambitions Groupe ABC arbitrage 28
Slide 29: 24 consecutive years of positive results - Robust Business Model
From creation (1995) 24 consecutive years of positive results Robust Business Model Capital Protection + Returns Groupe ABC arbitrage 29
Slide 30: 2020 - End of Low Volatility Era?
2020 - End of Low Volatility Era ? * from a french song of Claude François “ça s’en va et ça revient” (it does go away and comes back) - https://youtu.be/nBSY4mNznzk Groupe ABC arbitrage 30
Slide 31: 2012-2019 New volatility era...2020 end of free lunch?
2012-2019-New volatility era...2020 end of free lunch ? Before Central Banks Central Banks Era Source Bloomberg Groupe ABC arbitrage 31
Slide 32: Strong personal convictions
Strong personal convictions Le jour sans fin des banquiers centraux La cigale et la fourmi … et la BCE Groupe ABC arbitrage
Slide 33: 2020 vs 2008: Sharper VIX acceleration
2020 vs 2008 Sharper VIX acceleration than 2008 Groupe ABC arbitrage 33
Slide 34: SP500 (Close) on 20th March 2020
SP500 (Close) on 20th March 2020 2020 vs worst past markets crash 2020 =so far the worst DD for modern markets era Groupe ABC arbitrage 34
Slide 35: Liquidity crash or Value crash?
Liquidity crash or Value crash ? Both...unable to determine % of each ! Groupe ABC arbitrage 35
Slide 36: Major Differences with 2008 - 1/3
Major Differences with 2008 - 1/3 Very high PE explains a part of “Covid Crash” Groupe ABC arbitrage 36
Slide 37: Major Differences with 2008 - 2/3
Major Differences with 2008 - 2/3 A more visible & understandable crisis than 2008 and 1987 Especially for non expert Groupe ABC arbitrage 37
Slide 38: Major Differences with 2008 - 3/3
Major Differences with 2008 - 3/3 Consequences of 2008 was a “Demand” crisis… ...2020 could be a “Supply and Demand” crisis! Groupe ABC arbitrage 38
Slide 39: Even Hedge Fund Stars has been trapped??
Even Hedge Fund Stars has been trapped ?? Too soon to say... Groupe ABC arbitrage 39
Slide 40: How long? How much?
How long ? How much ? Groupe ABC arbitrage 40
Slide 41: Strategic Plan ABC 2022
Strategic Plan ABC 2022 Groupe ABC arbitrage 41
Slide 42: 2019 Conviction: New Paradigm, a world of entropy
2019 Conviction New Paradigm = a world of entropy. Global Debts Level Assets Bubble Groupe ABC arbitrage 42
Slide 43: ABC 2022 - Same Target...
ABC 2022 - Same Target... 90M€ cumulative income over next 3 years For almost all market conditions ABC arbitrage 43
Slide 44: Alternative solutions - Top 3 for ABC 2022
...Alternative solutions - Top 3 for ABC 2022 Strong increase of AUM up to 1B€ Strong increase of AUM Capacity Beyond 1B€ Improvement of our historic knowhow ABC arbitrage 44
Slide 45: 2022 - Talent Acquisition
2022 - Talent Acquisition Groupe ABC arbitrage 45
Slide 46: R&D 2022 - Low Volatility PnL
R&D 2022 - Low Volatility PnL Volatilité + 2008 R&D 2018 2019 2017 ➢ Low volatility focus ➢ Capacity focus ➢ Product diversification Volumes + Document confidentiel - ne pas imprimer - ne pas diffuser Groupe ABC arbitrage 46
Slide 47: External Expertise Integration - Speed up our evolution
External Expertise Integration - Speed up our evolution Already several recruitments in 2019/2020 Some others for the end of the HY R&D - IT - Sales team Groupe ABC arbitrage
Slide 48: Les actions ABC arbitrage
Les actions ABC arbitrage Groupe ABC arbitrage 48
Slide 49: For last 5 years ABCA = +11.22% + Distributions
For last 5 years ABCA = +11.22% + Distributions = 2.08€ CAC Mid Small = -19.27% CAC40 = -22.24% Groupe ABC arbitrage 49
Slide 50: GBR/BEL/NLD/LUX/SPA
GBR/BEL/NLD/LUX/SPA Groupe ABC arbitrage 50
Slide 51: Distributions and Share Buyback Program
Distributions and Share Buyback Program New Quarter Distribution Program 0,53€ since last july 0.23€ - Ex-date 9 Jul. 2019* 0.10€ - Ex-date 8 Oct. 2019* 0.10€ - Ex-date 10 Dec. 2019* 0.10€ - interim dividend - 23 April 2020 2019 dividend - to be announced 24 April 2020 Distribution from 2000 = 9.35€
Slide 52: Corner Stone Capital Protection
Corner Stone Capital Protection Groupe ABC arbitrage
Slide 53: Q&A Groupe ABC arbitrage
Q&A Groupe ABC arbitrage 53