Viet Dragon Securities Corp. · HOSE:VDS
Viet Dragon Securities — Investor Presentation (July 2025)
119 slides from Viet Dragon Securities's investor presentation, July 2025
Slide 1: Mid-Year Investment Strategy 2025: The Unique Path
Slide 2: Foreword
CONTRIBUTORS FOREWORD Lam Nguyen Dear Investors, Head of Research At the beginning of this year, we introduced our strategic outlook with the theme “Dare to Depart”, a message that lam.ntp@vdsc.com.vn captured not only the anticipation of a new growth cycle but also a call to shift mindsets, realign
Slide 3: Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS Part I: Macroeconomic overview for the first half of 2025 Market overview for 1H 2025 Review of 1H 2025 – Resilient amid uncertainty Part II: Theme 1: Adapting to uncertainty Theme 2: Vietnam’s monetary policy amid global easing cycle Macroeconomic outlook – Reforms and adaptation
Slide 4: Macroeconomics and Market Outlook for the First Half of 2025
MACROECONOMICS AND MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2025 “Resilient amid uncertainty” Table of Contents - 4
Slide 5: 1H2025 Review: Resilient Amid Uncertainty
1H2025 REVIEW: RESILIENT AMID UNCERTAINTY • In our Strategic Outlook Report for early 2025, we chose the title "A New Era", implying that 2025 would be a year filled with both opportunities and challenges. In reality, the opportunities and challenges that have emerged in the first half of the year h
Slide 6: Macroeconomic Indicators in 1H2025 vs. Target
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN 1H2025 VS. TARGET 2025 Target 2024A Q1/25A Q2/25A 1H25A GDP growth 8.0% 7.1% 7.1% 8.0% 7.5% – Agriculture, forestry & fishery 3.9% 3.3% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% – Industry & construction 9.5% 8.2% 7.6% 9.0% 8.3% – Services 8.1% 7.4% 7.8% 8.5% 8.1% – Taxes & subsidies 6.1% 5.7% 5.0%
Slide 7: Macroeconomic Outlook for Vietnam: Reforms and Adaptation
MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR VIETNAM “Reforms and adaptation”” Table of Contents - 7
Slide 8: Economic Outlook: Reform and Adaptation
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: REFORM AND ADAPTATION • Vietnam’s macroeconomic outlook for the next 6 to 12 months will revolve around two keywords: “Reform” and “Adaptation,” with a focus on internal reform as the cornerstone enabling the economy to adapt to external pressures. In this section, we analyze three
Slide 9: Theme 1: Adapting to Uncertainty
THEME 1: ADAPTING TO UNCERTAINTY • The macroeconomic environment is being navigated towards reducing uncertainty, as Vietnam is one of the first countries to secure a trade agreement with the US. However, uncertainty persists as more time is needed to negotiate the details and clarify the concept of
Slide 10: Tariff Policy in Trump 2.0 – Key Indicators
TARIFF POLICY IN TRUMP 2.0 – KEY INDICATORS Tariff policy in Trump 2.0 Source: RongViet Securities • The tariff rates announced on April 2nd are considered a threat, however, the 10% rate represents the lower limit. • Tariffs on strategic items such as aluminum, steel (50%), automobiles (25%), and p
Slide 11: Vietnam's Tariff Rates in Comparison with Other Countries
VIETNAM'S TARIFF RATES IN COMPARISON WITH OTHER COUNTRIES Announced tariff rates Effective tariff rates after excluding exempted goods Singapore Taiwan Korea Philippines EU Japan Malaysia Singapore Taiwan Korea Philippines EU Japan Malaysia India Thailand Indonesia Vietnam China India Thailand Indon
Slide 12: Vietnam's Tariff Rates Are Lower Than Most Other Countries in Asia
VIETNAM'S TARIFF RATES ARE LOWER THAN MOST OTHER COUNTRIES IN ASIA Vietnam's tariff rates in comparison with other countries by industry Source: MUFG, RongViet Securities, Tariff rates in the table above are purely the reciprocal tariffs based on the most recent announcement and do not account for e
Slide 13: 40% Tariff - Impact Depends on Definition of Transshipment Goods
40% TARIFF - THE IMPACT DEPENDS ON THE DEFINITION OF "TRANSSHIPMENT" GOODS Risk levels of the 40% tariff by industry • Over 50% of the value of electronic and machinery exports to the U.S. falls under 60% products containing semiconductors, which Wooden products HIGH RISK are currently exempt from r
Slide 14: Tariff Scenarios
TARIFF SCENARIOS Although preliminary results of the trade agreement have been obtained, the uncertainty surrounding the tariff policy still depends on: 1. Vietnam's tariff rates in comparison with other countries, and 2. The definition of "transshipment" goods. Four scenarios have been considered,
Slide 15: Impact of Tariff Policies on Vietnam's Economic Growth
IMPACT OF TARIFF POLICIES ON VIETNAM'S ECONOMIC GROWTH Worst-case Scenario Moderate Scenario Best-case Scenario Tariff Level Compared to Other Countries Lower than China & higher Lower than China & higher Lower than China & higher (20%) than some other countries than some other countries than some o
Slide 16: Theme 2: Vietnam's Monetary Policy Amid Global Easing Cycle
THEME 2: VIETNAM’S MONETARY POLICY AMID GLOBAL EASING CYCLE • Central banks are currently in a monetary easing cycle, with Japan as the exception, while the Fed is among the most cautious in this interest rate cutting cycle. The Fed's additional interest rate cuts will assist Asian central banks in
Slide 17: Global Easing Cycle
GLOBAL EASING CYCLE The policy rate of G10 central bank The policy rate of Asia central bank United States United Kingdom Euro Area Australia China India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines New Zealand Canada Sweden Norway South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Switzerland Japan 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0
Slide 18: The Fed Rate Cut Expectation
THE FED RATE CUT EXPECTATION Fed rate cut cycle and terminal Fed fund rate of each cycle • The market expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates in September 2025. The key focus is the pace of reductions over the Months since the first rate cut 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 3
Slide 19: The Impact of the Fed Rate Cut on Assets
THE IMPACT OF THE FED RATE CUT ON ASSETS Returns after 12-18 months since the intial Fed rate cut Return after 12 months Gold S&P 500 MSCI EM Index VNIndex DXY Bitcoin Commodities 06/1989 - 09/1992 -2% 12% 34% na -4% na 7% 01/2001 - 06/2003 3% -24% -30% 115% 0% na -17% 09/2007 - 12/2008 40% -16% 4%
Slide 20: The Impact of Fed Rate Cut on USDVND Exchange Rate
THE IMPACT OF FED RATE CUT ON USDVND EXCHANGE RATE USDVND exchange rate and USD index (2014 = 100) VND REER and NEER (2014 = 100) VND REER VND NEER USD REER TỷUSD/VND giá USD/VND liên ngân exchange rate hàng Chỉ DXYsố index DXY 140 150 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 2014 2015 2016 2017 20
Slide 21: The Impact of the Fed Rate Cut on Vietnam's Monetary Policy
THE IMPACT OF THE FED RATE CUT ON THE VIETNAM’S MONETARY POLICY The SBV’s policy rates The banking system’s credit growth SBV bill 7D SBV bill 14D SBV bill 28D Credit Credit quota 24% OMO 7D OMO 14D OMO 28D 21% Rediscounting rate Refinancing rate O/N Interbank rate 18% 8.0% 7.0% 15% % YoY 6.0% 12% 5
Slide 22: Theme 3: Domestic Reform as a Driver of Medium- to Long-Term Growth
THEME 3: DOMESTIC REFORM AS A DRIVER OF MEDIUM- TO LONG-TERM GROWTH • The external pressure and the ambition to become a high-income country by 2045 have been driving a critical wave of reform within the nation. A key aspect of this reform process is its urgency and enthusiasm, backed by strong poli
Slide 23: Key Reform Milestones
KEY REFORM MILESTONES 05/02: Resolution 25 - assigning growth targets for industries, sectors, and localities 20/12: Decision 137 - promoting 08/02: Resolution 28 - special mechanisms for HN and economic growth in 2025 08/01: Resolution 01 - socio- HCMC metro systems 22/12: Resolution 57 - economic
Slide 24: The 2.0 Reform: Raising Productivity Is Key
THE 2.0 REFORM: RASING PRODUCTIVITY IS A KEY Vietnam’s GDP growth The breakdown of output growth Tăng trưởng GDP GDP growth (%) (%) 1985-2024 Labor growth Capital growth TFP growth 1992-1997 2003-2007 & 2015-2024 12 8.8% 7.2% 6.8%* 10 8 6 4 2 0 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Slide 25: Three Key Priorities of the 2.0 Reform
THREE KEY PRIORITIES OF THE 2.0 REFORM TFP contribution share & GDP per capita Resolution 57 Resolution 59 Resolution 66 Resolution 68 Breakthroughs in Policy on Institutional reform The private science, technology, international to build a modern, economy as the innovation integration in the substa
Slide 26: A Road Ahead
A ROAD AHEAD SHORT-TERM ADDITIONAL Capital Special Mechanism Institutional Reform - Development investment expenditure/total Develop science, technology, and Streamline the administrative apparatus. state budget expenditure: ~31%. innovation (Resolution 57/2024). Policy to attract talent to the publ
Slide 27: Opportunities from the 2.0 Reform
OPPORTUNITIES FROM THE 2.0 REFORM • Reform brings many opportunities. The impacts listed in the table below aim to provide a brief overview of the various aspects that current reforms may touch upon: Policy Impact Banks provide financing for infrastructure and real estate Capital-driven growth Expan
Slide 28: 2H25 & 1H26 Economic Outlook
2H25 & 1H26 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • In the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026, we expect the impetus from reforms to offset the decline in export growth by boosting domestic public and private investment and consumption. • On the fiscal front, the government will strive to maximize fiscal roo
Slide 29: Resilient Growth Amid Challenging Environment
RESILIENT GROWTH AMID CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT FISCAL POLICY MONETARY POLICY GROWTH MAXIMIZE ROOM TO SUPPORT GROWTH - Streamlining the administrative apparatus and merging provinces and cities help address the MANAGABLE EASING fragmentation of investment resources, promoting RESILIENT GROWTH AMID - K
Slide 30: Fiscal Policy for Growth
FISCAL POLICY FOR GROWTH Public investment growth State budget revenue/expenditure in 1H25 2022 2023 2024 2025 60% Land use fee, 176% Current 60% 50% expenditure, 41% 50% 40% 40% Individual income Non-tax revenue, 30% tax, 25% 23% 30% Public investment, % YoY 20% VAT, 12% 36% 20% Im-Ex, 9% 10% Lotte
Slide 31: The Need of Public-Private Partnership to Build Infrastructure
THE NEED OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP TO BUILD INFRASTRUCTURE Vietnam’s infrastructure demand by 2030 • According to the infrastructure investment plan through 2030, the Seaport estimated demand is approximately VND4-5 trillion (US$144-202 bn, VND trillion 352 equivalent to 32-45% of 2024 GDP). Roa
Slide 32: Capital-Driven Growth Must Be Substantive
CAPITAL-DRIVEN GROWTH MUST BE SUBSTANTIVE Credit and M2 growth Vietnam’s credit/GDP ratio vs. middle income countries M2 Credit 21% Lower middle income Upper middle income Vietnam 18% 160 15% 140 12% 120 %YoY 9% 100 % GDP 80 6% 60 3% 40 0% 20 01/2020 04/2020 07/2020 10/2020 01/2021 04/2021 07/2021 1
Slide 33: Our Forecasts for 2H25 & 1H26
OUR FORECASTS FOR 2H25 & 1H26 2H2025 and 1H2026 Outlook 2025 Target 1H2025 Negative Base Case Positive Case GDP growth 8.0% 7.5% 5.5-6.0% ~6.5% ~7.0% Industrial production index 9.5% 9.2% 5.0-6.0% 6.0-7.0% 7.0-8.0% Retail sales 12.0% 9.3% 8.0-9.0% 9.0-10.0% 12.0% Trade growth 12.0% 16.9% 1.4% 5.5% 5
Slide 34: Appendix: Tariff Negotiation Information of Countries
APPENDIX: TARIFF NEGOTIATION INFORMATION OF COUNTRIES Country Reciprocal tariff Negotiation status China 30 Trade truce after the agreement on June 11, agreeing to remove export barriers. EU 10 Agreed on a base tariff rate of 10%, expecting an agreement before July 9. Vietnam 20 Reciprocal tariff at
Slide 35: Appendix: 4 Pillars of Reform
APPENDIX: 4 PILLARS OF REFORM - THE FOUNDATION FOR GROWTH 4 pillars of reform Goals for 2030 - Digital economy: 30% of GDP (18.3% in 2024) - HR: 12 researchers/10,000 people, with 40-50 - Among the top 3 ASEAN countries and in the - Total factor productivity (TFP) to contribute over regional-standar
Slide 36: Appendix: Legal Bottleneck Removal for PPP Projects
APPENDIX: LEGAL BOTTLENECK REMOVAL FOR PPP PROJECTS Regulation Policy update Date of issue Decree 71/2025 guiding PPP investment Streamlined review period for pre-feasibility study reports on PPP projects. 28/03/2025 Clarified process for designating competent authorities for PPP projects spanning t
Slide 37: Appendix: Expressways, Aviation, and Seaport Infrastructure
APPENDIX: EXPRESSWAYS, AVIATION, AND SEAPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Project Estimated Cost (VND bn) Length (km) Completion Type of investment North-South Expressway – Phase 2 146,985 729 km 2025 Public Bac Kan – Cao Bang 29,900 90 km 2030 Ninh Binh – Hai Phong 6,865 109 km 2029 Dong Dang – Tra Linh 23,000 1
Slide 38: Appendix: Expressways, Aviation, and Seaport Infrastructure
APPENDIX: EXPRESSWAYS, AVIATION, AND SEAPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Estimated Cost (VND bn) Length/Scale Completion Investor/Proponent II. RAILWAYS Hanoi Urban Railway 70,414 25 km 2027-2031 HCMC Urban Railway 47,890 11 km 2031 VinGroup (via Vinspeed), THACO proposed North-South High-Speed Rail 1,713,548 1.
Slide 39: Appendix: Sectoral Credit and Preferential Credit Packages
APPENDIX: SECTORAL CREDIT AND ONGOING PREFERENTIAL CREDIT PACKAGES Credit growth in early 2025 and selected ongoing preferential credit packages Share (%) Growth (%) Compared to System growth (%) Period SMEs 17.5% 5.7% < 6.5% May-25 Supporting Industries 3.2% 15.7% > 6.5% May-25 Export 2.1% 2.9% < 6
Slide 40: Market Outlook for the Stock Market
MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE STOCK MARKET “Ample liquidity supports repricing” Table of Contents - 40
Slide 41: Market Outlook for 2H 2025: Strong Liquidity Supports Revaluation
MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 2H 2025: STRONG LIQUIDITY SUPPORTS REVALUATION • We forecast that the VN-Index may reach the range of 1,513 to 1,756 over the next 6 to 8 months, equivalent to a 6%–23% increase compared to the closing level on July 9, 2025. • We believe the direct impact of tariffs on Vietnam's e
Slide 42: VN-Index Could Reach 1,513 to 1,758 in the Next 6-8 Months
VN-INDEX COULD POTENTIALLY REACH THE RANGE OF 1,513 TO 1,758 IN THE NEXT 6-8 MONTHS We forecast that the VN-Index may reach the range of 1,513 to 1,756 in the next 6 to 8 months, equivalent to a 6%–23% increase compared to the closing level on July 9, 2025. Our forecast is based on the following key
Slide 43: Earnings Outlook – VN-Index EPS Forecast to Grow 15–21% in 2025
EARNINGS OUTLOOK – VN-INDEX EPS FORECAST TO GROW 15–21% IN 2025 We forecast that the EPS growth of the VN-Index in 2025 will reach 114–120 VND, representing a 15%–21% YoY increase. • Using a "top-down" approach, combining factors such as GDP growth, credit, asset turnover, and profit margins, the 20
Slide 44: Earnings Outlook – Top-Down Perspective
EARNINGS OUTLOOK – "TOP-DOWN" PERSPECTIVE We believe that the direct impact of tariffs on Vietnam’s economic growth in 2025 will not be significant, as the macroeconomic environment is being managed in a way that minimizes uncertainty, particularly in the context of Vietnam's significant progress in
Slide 45: Earnings Outlook – Bottom-Up Perspective from VDSC's Stock Coverage
EARNINGS OUTLOOK – "BOTTOM-UP" PERSPECTIVE FROM VDSC'S STOCK COVERAGE The market capitalization of the stock coverage by Viet Dragon’s Analysis Center currently represents approximately 54% of the total market capitalization, reflecting a high level of coverage and representativeness in forecasts. A
Slide 46: Earnings Outlook – Bottom-Up Perspective from VDSC's Stock Coverage
EARNINGS OUTLOOK – "BOTTOM-UP" PERSPECTIVE FROM VDSC'S STOCK COVERAGE In the profit growth outlook for 2025, the Banking, Utilities, Real Estate, and Materials sectors stand out as the most prominent. The banking sector is expected to play a pivotal role, contributing the largest share to overall ma
Slide 47: Profit Outlook – Market Expectations Perspective
PROFIT OUTLOOK – MARKET EXPECTATIONS PERSPECTIVE According to data from Bloomberg, the EPS of the VN-Index for 2025, compiled using the "bottom-up" method from market analysts' forecasts, is expected to grow by approximately 21% YoY, reaching 120 VND per share. A notable point is that the EPS foreca
Slide 48: Valuation Perspective – Target P/E 13.3x to 14.7x
VALUATION PERSPECTIVE – TARGET P/E EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 13.3X AND 14.7X We have adjusted the target P/E range for the VN-Index over the next 6–8 months to a broader range of 13.3x–14.7x from the previous 13.5x–14.5x, in response to newly emerging support factors and risks, compared to the scena
Slide 49: The Upgrade Story Is Almost Here
THE UPGRADE STORY IS ALMOST HERE March 2025 evaluation by Russell continues to indicate that Vietnam’s upgrade to Emerging Impact in the scenario of "upgrading to secondary emerging market" Market status is very close. FTSE has recommended that Vietnam establish more efficient Capital inflows (~$1 m
Slide 50: Hidden Risks – Multipolar Trend Could Lead to Unexpected Volatility
HIDDEN RISKS – THE MULTIPOLAR TREND COULD LEAD TO UNEXPECTED VOLATILITY EVENTS How geopolitical volatility can impact financial markets and trade The emerging multipolar trend is creating a new global order, where multiple power centers are competing, leading to increased economic competition, geopo
Slide 51: Hidden Risks – If the Fed Put Arrives Later
HIDDEN RISKS – IF THE "FED PUT" ARRIVES LATER, POLICY IMPLEMENTATION COULD BE AFFECTED Front-loading effect and tax extensions Labor market is in a "low entry, low exit" delay the impact of tariffs on inflation equilibrium Inflation in the U.S. for May 2025 stands at 2.4% YoY. However, Foods Goods U
Slide 52: Hidden Risks – Trump Administration Policy Remains Uncertain
HIDDEN RISKS – THE POLICY OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION REMAINS AN UNCERTAIN FACTOR Sector's proposed tax rates are expected to be higher than the China is actively acquiring mines globally to secure its supply of raw reciprocal tariffs materials Sector Effective date Legal basis Proposed tariff rate
Slide 53: 2H2025 Investment Strategy
2H2025 INVESTMENT STRATEGY Our Strategic Investment Message for the Upcoming Period Includes: Preparing a sustainable investment plan Periodically rebalancing the portfolio allocation Favorable Conditions to add more weight to Listed Equities Continuously monitoring and assessing risk factor
Slide 54: Preparing a Sustainable Investment Plan
PREPARING A SUSTAINABLE INVESTMENT PLAN The order of priority in financial investment planning is as follows Prepare a strategic plan that enhances investors' chances of success and maintains a long-term focus, even during volatile market periods. The investment plan should prioritise: 1/ liquidity
Slide 55: Favorable Conditions to Add More Weight to Listed Equities
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO ADD MORE WEIGHT TO LISTED EQUITIES Despite the uncertain global macroeconomic environment, particularly as a result of US tariff policies, countries are generally strengthening their domestic resilience by combining expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to support growth.
Slide 56: Diversifying the Investment Portfolio
DIVERSIFYING THE INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO VN Index Transportation 4% Software & Services 3% Utilities 5% Real Estate Banking Management & 38% Development 18% Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Materials Sciences 8% 1% Capital Goods Insurance 5% 1% Consumer Food, Beverage & Discretionary Tobacco Energ
Slide 57: Periodically Rebalancing the Portfolio
PERIODICALLY REBALANCING THE PORTFOLIO Rebalancing involves adjusting the allocation of assets in a portfolio when it deviates from the initial strategy. This is particularly important for listed stock portfolios. The objective is to maintain the desired level of risk and prevent any individual stoc
Slide 58: Continuously Monitoring and Assessing Risk Factors
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORING AND ASSESSING RISK FACTORS Price volatility is an inseparable part of the stock market. Unsystematic risk, such as industry- or company-specific fluctuations, can be mitigated through portfolio diversification. However, systematic risk, or market risk, affects the entire mark
Slide 59: Investment Themes 2H2025
INVESTMENT THEMES 2H2025 1 2 3 4 5 THEME 1: MARKET THEME 2: CRUCIAL THEME 3: RETAIL AND THEME 4: THEME 5: TURNING UPGRADE, SEED ROLE OF THE BANKING CONSUMER – A VITAL OPPORTUNITIES FROM POINT CAPITAL DRIVING THE INDUSTRY IN ECONOMIC DRIVER NATIONAL KEY WAVE UPLIFTING VIETNAM INFRASTRUCTURE ECONOMIC
Slide 60: Theme 1: Market Upgrade, Seed Capital Driving the Wave
THEME 1: MARKET UPGRADE, SEED CAPITAL DRIVING THE WAVE Statistics on the number and total assets under management of Accumulative net capital flows into markets before and after 12 Investment thesis investment funds tracking FTSE months of being recognized by FTSE as eligible for an upgrade to • Giv
Slide 61: Theme 1: Market Upgrade, Seed Capital Driving the Wave
THEME 1: MARKET UPGRADE, SEED CAPITAL DRIVING THE WAVE Listed securities brokerage firms with strong fundamentals, leading market positions and high liquidity that are suitable for trading. SSI and HCM are particularly attractive options for capitalizing on this trend thanks to their stable return o
Slide 62: Theme 2: Crucial Role of Banking Industry
THEME 2: CRUCIAL ROLE OF THE BANKING INDUSTRY IN UPLIFTING VIETNAM ECONOMIC GROWTH Investment Rationales Credit, the primary channel for capital mobilization in the economy, is projected to embark on The government's growth-oriented policy stance creates promising a robust growth trajectory to reali
Slide 63: Theme 2: Crucial Role of Banking Industry
THEME 2: CRUCIAL ROLE OF THE BANKING INDUSTRY IN UPLIFTING VIETNAM ECONOMIC GROWTH Investment Rationales The banking sector’s price-to-book (P/B) valuation remains below its five-year average Current valuations have yet to fully reflect the growth prospects of the 3.00 20.0% economy and the banking
Slide 64: Theme 2: Stock Picks in the Banking Sector
THEME 2: CRUCIAL ROLE OF THE BANKING INDUSTRY IN UPLIFTING VIETNAM ECONOMIC GROWTH Stock picks in the banking sector Market TOI NPAT-MI Expected ROE % P/B (x) TP Cash div price YoY % YoY % Stock return Investment thesis related to the topic (VND) (VND) @July 09 (%) 2025F 2026F 2025F 2026F 2025F 2026
Slide 65: Theme 3: Retail and Consumer – A Vital Economic Driver
THEME 3: RETAIL AND CONSUMER – A VITAL ECONOMIC DRIVER The market share growth narrative, diverging among industry giants, hinges In the short to medium term, the narrative of “market share consolidation among industry giants” emerges as a focal point amid subdued consumption growth closely on the e
Slide 66: Theme 3: Retail and Consumer – A Vital Economic Driver
THEME 3: RETAIL AND CONSUMER – A VITAL ECONOMIC DRIVER In near-term, the diposable income and consumer sentiment have still Short-term (2023-24) Long-term been gloomy mainly attributed to macro uncertainty and price inflation YoY 90 Growth Growth YoY growth Sub-segment growth Note 80 driver driver r
Slide 67: Theme 3: Stock Picks in Consumer-Retail Sector
THEME 3: RETAIL AND CONSUMER – A VITAL ECONOMIC DRIVER Sub-Investment thesis STOCK PICKS IN CONSUMER-RETAIL SECTOR Modest growth in NPAT but cheap Market Target Dividend yield valuation: VNM PE (x) EVEBITDA (x) Stock price Recommendation price (*) (%) High risk high rewards - High long- (VND) (V
Slide 68: Theme 4: Opportunities from Key Infrastructure Investment Projects
THEME 4: OPPORTUNITIES ARISING FROM KEY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT PROJECTS Business Models Benefiting from Key Transportation Infrastructure Projects Infrastructure serves as a pivotal element in the economic growth strategy. We posit that the ongoing reforms will enable Vietnam to expedite its infr
Slide 69: Theme 4: Selected Stocks – Transportation Infrastructure
THEME 4: OPPORTUNITIES ARISING FROM NATIONAL KEY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT PROJECTS Selected Stocks Based on Investment Themes - Accelerating Transportation Infrastructure Projects Closed Upside Revenue NPAT-MI 12M Form of Target Div. in ROA 2025 ROE 2025 P/E 2025 P/B 2025 Stock price (Including gro
Slide 70: Theme 4: Power Capacity Expansion
THEME 4: OPPORTUNITIES ARISING FROM NATIONAL KEY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT PROJECTS 2. Power Capacity Expansion – An Urgent Necessity Total installed capacity (MW), classify by energy sources 200 The Revised Power Development Plan VIII sets a target for average GDP growth of approximately 10% 180 pe
Slide 71: Theme 4: Selected Stocks – Power Supply Capacity
THEME 4: OPPORTUNITIES FROM NATIONAL KEY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT PROJECTS Selected Stocks Based on Investment Themes - The Urgency of Investing in Expanding Power Supply Capacity Business Target Div. in Closed Upside Revenue NPAT-MI ROA ROE P/E P/B 12M Growth Stock segment price next price (Includ
Slide 72: Theme 4: Expansion of National Energy Infrastructure
THEME 4: OPPORTUNITIES FROM NATIONAL KEY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT PROJECTS Investment Ideas from the Expansion of National Energy Infrastructure 3. Expanding National Energy Infrastructure Main Theme Key Operations Beneficiary Company We believe that investing in gas and LNG infrastructure is a key
Slide 73: Theme 4: Selected Stocks – National Energy Infrastructure
THEME 4: OPPORTUNITIES FROM NATIONAL KEY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT PROJECTS Selected Stocks Based on Investment Themes - Expanding national energy infrastructure Business Target Div. in Closed Upside Revenue NPAT-MI ROA ROE P/E P/B 12M Growth Stock segment price next price (Including growth in 2025
Slide 74: Theme 5: Turning Point
THEME 5: TURNING POINT We believe that potential investment opportunities also come from factors that create a tipping point in terms of business results. New income streams of a regular nature or large enough one-time receipts can completely create value and benefits for shareholders. In this topic
Slide 75: Theme 5: Turning Point
THEME 5: TURNING POINT • Banking industry: Legalizing three important pillars from Resolution 42 – Expecting to make a breakthrough in handling bad debts The three core provisions of Resolution 42 included in the amended Law on Credit Institutions include:: 1. The right to seize collateral (fixed as
Slide 76: Theme 5: Removing Institutional and Legal Bottlenecks
THEME 5: TURNING POINT Stocks selected by investment theme - Removing mechanical and legal bottlenecks Dividend Expected NPAT- Target for the rate of 12M Market MI P/E Ticker Segment price next 12 return ROE (%) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA Notes related to investment topics price(*) YoY% (x) (dong) months (in
Slide 77: Theme 5: Unexpected Gains from One-off Profits
THEME 5: TURNING POINT Selected Stocks Based on Investment Themes - Unexpected Gains from One-off Profits % Market NPAT- Cumulat Closed Upside cap MI Target EV/EBIT Stock ive 12M price (Including) ROE P/E P/B Investment thesis related to the topic (VND (VND price DA dividend @09/07 dividend bn) bn)
Slide 78: Our Strategic Portfolio 2H2025
OUR STRATEGIC PORTFOLIO 2H2025 List of selected stocks for the strategic investment portfolio Stock Selection and Portfolio Allocation Strategy Expected NPAT Target Closing P/E P/B ROE% Stock Dividend rate of YoY% %Weight We prioritize the Banking sector, which is the main conduit of capital in the
Slide 79: KDH: Gladia Project – A Bright Spot for 2025
GLADIA PROJECT – A BRIGHT SPOT FOR BUSINESS RESULTS IN 2025 HSX: KDH BUY: 37% MP: 31,000 TP: 42,600 STOCK INFORMATION FINANCIAL 2023A 2024F 2025F 12M relative performance Sector Revenue (VND bn) 3,279 7,431 5,778 TP Low Risk Real Estate 130 VN Index NPATMI (VND bn) 810 1,115 865 120 KDH 4 Market Cap
Slide 80: REE: Energy and Real Estate Fuel Business Growth
REE: ENERGY AND REAL ESTATE FUEL BUSINESS GROWTH HSX: REE STOCK INFO FINANCIALS 2024A 2025F 2026F BUY: 24.1% MP: 67,500 TP: 83,800 Sector Revenue (VND bn) 8,384 9,284 8,885 12M relative performance Low Risk Ultilities 160 5 NPATMI (VND bn) 1,994 2,544 2,323 VN Index REE TP TP 4 Market Cap (USD Mn) 1
Slide 81: KBC: Leveraging for Long-Term Growth Expectations
LEVERAGING FOR LONG-TERM GROWTH EXPECTATIONS HSX: KBC BUY: 25% MP: 27,700 TP: 34,600 STOCK INFO FINANCIALS 2024 2025F 2026F Real Estate Revenue (VND bn) 12M relative performance 2,776 4,811 12,278 130 Sector Low Risk VN Index TP 5 NPATMI (VND bn) 426 1,441 3,047 120 KBC 4 Market Cap (USD Mn) 1,000 1
Slide 82: QNS: Highly Dependent on Sugar Industry Trends
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SUGAR INDUSTRY TRENDS HSX: QNS ACCUMULATE 15.7% MP: 48,500 TP: 56,100 STOCK INFO FINANCIALS 2024A 2025F 2026F 12M relative performance Sector Food & Beverage Revenue (VND bn) 10,243 10,123 10,946 Low Risk 120 VN Index TP Market Cap (USD Mn) 682 NPATMI (VND bn) 2,377 2,190 2,212 Q
Slide 83: PVS: M&C Progress Boosts Business Performance
M&C PROGRESS BOOSTS BUSINESS PERFORMANCE HSX: PVS BUY: 20.4% MP: 32,800 TP: 38,500 STOCK INFO FINANCIALS 2024A 2025F 2026F 12M relative performance Low Sector Oil & Gas Revenue (VND bn) 23,770 32,620 39,478 120 Risk VN Index 5 NPATMI (VND bn) 1,070 1,230 1,145 110 PVS Market Cap (USD Mn) 15,677 ROA
Slide 84: MBB: Attractive Growth Prospects
ATTRACTIVE GROWTH PROSPECTS WITH LEADING OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY HSX: MBB BUY: 19% MP: 26,600 TP: 31,500 STOCK INFO FINANCIALS 2024A 2025F 2026F 12M relative performance Low Risk Sector Banks TOI (VND bn) 55,413 63,272 77,291 180 VN Index TP 5 NPATMI (VND bn) 22,634 24,877 31,151 MBB 4 Market Cap (US
Slide 85: VCB: Moderate but Sustainable Growth
MODERATE BUT SUSTAINABLE GROWTH HSX: VCB BUY: 19% MP: 61,500 TP: 73,000 STOCK INFO FINANCIALS 2024A 2025F 2026F 12M relative performance 68,578 75,015 84,791 Low Risk TOI (VND bn) 130 VN Index TP 5 Sector Banks VCB NPATMI (VND bn) 33,831 37,021 41,433 120 4 TP 3 Market Cap (USD Mn) 19,660 ROA (%) 1.
Slide 86: VPB: Towards More Sustainable and Stable Growth
TOWARDS MORE SUSTAINABLE AND STABLE GROWTH HSX: VPB ACCUMULATE: 16% MP: 20,050 TP: 22,800 STOCK INFO FINANCIALS 2024A 2025F 2026F 12M relative performance 62,255 69,037 79,197 130 Low Risk Sector Banks TOI (VND bn) VN Index 5 TP NPATMI (VND bn) 15,779 20,429 23,376 120 VPB 4 Market Cap (USD Mn) 6,08
Slide 87: HPG: Dung Quat 02 with Long-Term Potential
DUNG QUAT 02 WITH LONG-TERM POTENTIAL HSX: HPG BUY: 15% MP: 24,600 TP: 28,200 STOCK INFO FINANCIALS 2024 2025F 2026F 12M relative performance 120 TP Sector Revenue (VND bn) 138,855 180,667 218,673 VN Index Low Risk Basic Resources 110 HPG 5 NPATMI (VND bn) 12,019 18,699 24,574 TP Market Cap (USD Mn)
Slide 88: SAB: Highlight from Substantial Cash Dividend
HIGHLIGHT FROM SUBSTANTIAL CASH DIVIDEND HSX: SAB ACCUMULATE 13.5% MP: 47,650 TP: 54,100 STOCK INFO FINANCIALS 2024A 2025F 2026F 12M relative performance Low Risk Sector Food & Beverage Revenue (VND bn) 31,782 26,965 27,316 120 VN Index SAB 4 Market Cap (USD Mn) 2.339 NPATMI (VND bn) 4,330 3,845 3,7
Slide 89: MWG: Anticipating Upswing in BHX's Profitability
ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT UPSWING IN BHX’S PROFITABILITY HSX: MWG ACCUMULATE 11.7% MP: 67,700 TP: 75,300 STOCK INFO FINANCIALS 2024A 2025F 2026F 12M relative performance Low Risk Sector Retail Revenue (VND bn) 134,341 147,515 157,178 120 VN Index TP NPATMI (VND bn) 3,722 5,223 5,830 MWG 4 Market Ca
Slide 90: MSN: Efforts to Streamline Business Model
EFFORTS TO STREAMLINE BUSINESS MODEL HSX: MSN ACCUMULATE 9.5% MP: 75,800 TP: 83,000 STOCK INFO FINANCIALS 2024A 2025F 2026F 12M relative performance Low Risk Sector Food & Beverage Revenue (VND bn) 83,178 83,285 90,048 120 VN Index TP NPATMI (VND bn) 1,999 3,245 3,748 110 MSN 4 Market Cap (USD Mn) 4
Slide 91: CTG: Declining Credit Costs Drive Resilient Growth
DECLINING CREDIT COSTS DRIVE RESILIENT GROWTH HSX: CTG ACCUMULATE: 7% MP: 45,000 TP: 48,300 STOCK INFO FINANCIALS 2024A 2025F 2026F 12M relative performance 81,909 87,773 95,867 160 TP Low Risk Sector Banks TOI (VND bn) VN Index 5 NPATMI (VND bn) 25,342 30,501 38,927 140 CTG 4 Market Cap (USD Mn) 9,
Slide 92: Market Appendix
MARKET APPENDIX Table of Contents 92
Slide 93: Market Trends
MARKET TRENDS VN-Index, January 2025 - June 2025 200,000 Trading Volume (VND Bn - LHS) VN Index (RHS) 1,600 180,000 20/01 12/02 08/03 02/04 04/05 05/05 12/06 24/06 Trump's 9th extraordinary AD tax applied to U.S. has announced Resolution No. 68 was issued 9th Session of 15th Israel NATO 1,500 inaugu
Slide 94: VN-Index Performance vs. Other Indices & Market Liquidity
THE PERFORMANCE OF THE VNINDEX COMPARED TO OTHER INDICES & MARKET LIQUIDITY Most stock markets have witnessed positive growth since the beginning of the year. Vietnam has become a standout in Southeast Market liquidity has seen a significant increase since the end of Q1 Asia, with the VN-Index incre
Slide 95: Investment Performance by Sector
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE BY SECTOR Sector contributions and VNIndex investment performance 10% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 09% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 09% 00% 00% 08% 00% 01% 07% 06% 02% 05% 04% 04% 03% 02% 01% 00% Year-to-date performance among industry groups 80% 51% 13% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9%
Slide 96: Monthly Average Order-Matching Liquidity by Industry
MONTHLY AVERAGE ORDER-MATCHING LIQUIDITY PER SESSION BY INDUSTRY Trading value rebounded significantly across most sectors in May 2025 Average daily liquidity per quarter for the last 12 consecutive quarters VND bn/ section 2H2019 1H2020 2H2020 1H2021 2H2021 1H2022 2H2022 1H2023 2H2023 1H2024 2H2024
Slide 97: P/E & P/B by Sector
P/E & P/B BY SECTOR P/E by sector Auto Commercial Consumer Consumer Consumer Energy Financial Real Software Tech. Telecom. Transport. Banks Capital F&B Health Household Insurance Media Pharma. Estate Utilities & & Discrete Durables Services 31.0 Services 18.2 Care 15.4 Materials & & Hardware Service
Slide 98: Earnings Outlook – By Sector
EARNINGS OUTLOOK – BY SECTOR % 2025 growth 2H 2025 Median Median Median 2025 growth Market Sector Stock (new growth P/E P/B ROE Sector outlook for 2H 2025 (old forecast) cap forecast) (estimate) 2025 2025 2025 weight Fertilizer sector: Growth driven by price and VAT tax policy support • Fertilizer p
Slide 99: Earnings Outlook – By Sector
EARNINGS OUTLOOK – BY SECTOR 2025 % 2025 2H 2025 Median Median Median growth Market Sector Stock growth (old growth P/E P/B ROE Sector outlook for 2H 2025 (new cap forecast) (estimate) 2025 2025 2025 forecast) weight Hydropower: Slight decrease in production compared to high base in 2H 2024 • Volume
Slide 100: Earnings Outlook – By Sector
EARNINGS OUTLOOK – BY SECTOR 2025 2025 % 2H 2025 Median Median Median growth growth Market Sector Stock growth P/E P/B ROE Sector outlook for 2H 2025 (old (new cap (estimate) 2025 2025 2025 forecast) forecast) weight Industrial parks: Growth driven by land handover and trade negotiation outcomes Ind
Slide 101: Earnings Outlook – By Sector
EARNINGS OUTLOOK – BY SECTOR 2025 2025 growth 2H 2025 Media Median Media growth % Market Sector Stock (new growth n P/E P/B n ROE Sector outlook for 2H 2025 (old cap weight forecast) (estimate) 2025 2025 2025 forecast) Retail sector: Profit growth driven by market share gains and cost optimization •
Slide 102: Earnings Outlook – By Sector
EARNINGS OUTLOOK – BY SECTOR 2025 2025 2H 2025 % Median Median Median growth growth growth Market Sector Stock P/E P/B ROE Sector outlook for 2H 2025 (old (new (estimat cap 2025 2025 2025 forecast) forecast) e) weight Banking sector: Focus on domestic credit growth – Expecting a breakthrough from po
Slide 103: Earnings Outlook – By Sector
EARNINGS OUTLOOK – BY SECTOR % 2025 2025 growth 2H 2025 Median Median Median Market Sector Stock growth (old (new growth P/E P/B ROE Sector outlook for 2H 2025 cap forecast) forecast) (estimate) 2025 2025 2025 weight Textile industry is expected to face a lackluster performance in H2 2025, as the im
Slide 104: Earnings Outlook – By Sector
EARNINGS OUTLOOK – BY SECTOR 2025 2025 2H 2025 Media Median Median % Market growth Sector Stock growth (old growth n P/E P/B ROE cap Sector outlook for 2H 2025 (new forecast) (estimate) 2025 2025 2025 weight forecast) Oil and gas infrastructure construction: PVS – Positive outlook from key projects
Slide 105: Earnings Outlook – By Sector
EARNINGS OUTLOOK – BY SECTOR 2025 2025 growth 2H 2025 Median Median % Market growth Median Sector Stock (new growth P/B ROE cap Sector outlook for 2H 2025 (old P/E 2025 forecast) (estimate) 2025 2025 weight forecast) 1. Trade and commodity flow demand: Although the likelihood of a 145% tariff being
Slide 106: Earnings Outlook – By Sector
EARNINGS OUTLOOK – BY SECTOR 2H 2025 Median 2025 growth 2025 growth Median Median % Market Sector Stock growth ROE Sector outlook for 2H 2025 (old forecast) (new forecast) P/E 2025 P/B 2025 cap weight (estimate) 2025 Tire sector: Profit recovery outlook from 2H 2025 The tire industry is expected to
Slide 107: Market Movements Across Capitalization Groups
MARKET MOVEMENTS ACROSS CAPITALIZATION GROUPS VNSMALL Index leads performance in June P/E ratios by cap size compared to historical data 120 VN Index VN30 VNMID VNSMALL VN Index VN30 VNMID VNSMALL 35 110 30 25 100 20 19.4 15 15.5 13.3 90 10.7 10 5 80 04/01 05/01 06/01 0 X: 5 year average P/E, : cur
Slide 108: Trading Among Investor Groups
TRADING AMONG INVESTOR GROUPS Market performance correlation and trading activity by investor group – 12-month rolling basis Cumulative net buy/sell value in 1H.2025 Top traded stocks in 1H.2025 Banks 19,775 FPT 11,295 Retail Investors 250,000 Technology 11,114 VIC 6,143 Food & Beverage 7,645 VNM 3,
Slide 109: Foreign Flow in Asia Markets
FOREIGN FLOW IN ASIA MARKETS Cumulative net capital flow (12-month rolling) - foreign capital flow Cumulative net capital flow (12-month rolling) - Southeast in Asian markets shows net selling trend, with a slight recovery in Asia's net selling trend continues to increase (million USD) China 5,000 4
Slide 110: Correlation Between Stock Returns and Fixed-Income Asset Classes
CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK MARKET RETURNS AND FIXED-INCOME ASSET CLASSES Correlation between stock market returns, 10-year government bond yields, Yield spread between stock market returns and 10-year government and VCB’s 12-month deposit interest rate bond yields 12.0% 7.0% 7.5% 6.0% 10.0% 5.0% 8.0%
Slide 111: Market Valuation and Historical Returns (2015-2025)
APPENDIX: MARKET VALUATION AND HISTORICAL RETURNS (2015-2025) VN Index P/E ratio and 1-year holding period returns VN Index P/E ratio and 2-year holding period returns 100% 60% 6/30/2025 13.28x 80% 50% 30/06/2025 13,28x 40% 60% 30% 40% y = -3.02%x + 58.27% R² = 9.36% 20% 20% 10% y = -3.35%x + 61.65%
Slide 112: Monthly Market Investment Performance
APPENDIX: MONTHLY MARKET INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE Historical monthly returns of VN Index (2009-2025) VN Index monthly volatility (2020-2025) 25.0% 2025 -0,1% 3,2% 0,1% -6,2% 8,7% 3,3% 2024 3,0% 7,6% 2,5% -5,8% 4,3% -1,3% 0,5% 2,6% 0,3% -1,8% -1,1% 1,3% 20.0% 2023 10,3% -7,8% 3,9% -1,5% 2,5% 4,2% 9,2%
Slide 113: Investment Performance of the Strategic Stock Portfolio
APPENDIX: INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE OF THE STRATEGIC STOCK PORTFOLIO Performance of Selected Stocks in VDSC’s Strategic Investment Portfolio Year-to-Date (7/9/2025) Portfolio Rebalance CTG ACB VIB HPG HSG KBC SIP KDH REE PVT HAH VCB GEG POW VNM NT2 MWG MBB SAB VPB PHR PVS date 31/12/2024 1% -2% 5% 0% -
Slide 114: Stocks in the FTSE Vietnam Index Basket
APPENDIX OF STOCKS IN THE FTSE VIETNAM INDEX BASKET %Revenue %Net %Total Mean The The Foreign %Market Growth Income - 5 Assets - 5 EV/ Discount/( Market highest Lowest Foreign %AVG 5 %diff. to Cur. P/B AVG P/B 5 %Dividen Potential Current remaining %Floating Ticker Cap Adjusted Yr Yr EBITDA P/E (x)
Slide 115: Highlight Stocks
HIGHLIGHT STOCKS 2024A 2025F 3-month avg. Closed Market PB Div daily Foreign Target price price @ PE 2024 PE 2025F +/- Price Ticker Exchange cap (USD Total Return Recommendation +/- Rev. +/- NPAT +/- Rev. +/- NPAT 2025F Yield turnover remaining (VND) 07/09/25 (x) (x) 1y (%) mn) (%) (%) (%) (%) (x) (
Slide 116: Highlight Stocks
HIGHLIGHT STOCKS 2024A 2025F 3-month avg. Closed Market PB Div daily Foreign Target price price @ Recommendatio PE 2024 PE 2025F +/- Price Ticker Exchange cap (USD Total Return +/- Rev. +/- NPAT +/- Rev. +/- NPAT 2025F Yield turnover remaining (VND) 07/09/25 n (x) (x) 1y (%) mn) (%) (%) (%) (%) (x)
Slide 117: Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER: This report is prepared in order to provide information and analysis to clients of Rong Viet Securities only. It is and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities. No consideration has been given to the investment objectives, fina
Slide 118: Disclaimer for U.S. Recipients
DISCLAIMER: Any U.S. recipient of this research report wishing to effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments based on the information provided in this research report should do so only through Tellimer Markets, Inc., located at Floor 36, 444 Madison Avenue, Flo
Slide 119: Viet Dragon Securities Corporation
VIET DRAGON SECURITIES CORPORATION Floor 1 to Floor 8, Viet Dragon Tower, 141 Nguyen Du Street., HCMC, Vietnam www.vdsc.com.vn August 2020
Viet Dragon Securities — Investor Presentation (July 2025) on 6ix