Nrg Energy, Inc. · NYSE:NRG
Nrg Energy — IWCS Special Session 2025
24 slides from Nrg Energy's conference presentation, Oct 30, 2025
Slide 1: Grid at the Crossroads: Innovation and Infrastructure
IWCS Special session October 30, 2025 GRID AT THE CROSSROADS: INNOVATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Travis Kavulla, Vice President of Regulatory Affairs NRG Energy
Slide 2: Summary
SUMMARY • Demand forecasts for power are extremely robust but highly uncertain • Ultimate rate impacts for everyday consumers could be good—or bad— depending on whether the normal economics of network industries obtain (lower unit costs with more throughput) in our current, somewhat abnormal environ
Slide 3: Data Centers Are Driving Incredible Load Forecasts
DATA CENTERS ARE DRIVING INCREDIBLE LOAD FORECASTS ERCOT (Texas) PJM (Mid-Atlantic to Chicago) Source: ERCOT’s Revisions to Adjusted Load Forecasts and Amended Draft Proposed Order. Source: PJM Long-Term Load Forecast Report, 2025. © 2025 NRG Energy, Inc. All rights reserved. / Proprietary and Confi
Slide 4: Utility Prices: One Big Division Problem?
UTILITY PRICES: ONE BIG DIVISION PROBLEM? • The grid, which is mostly large capital costs of a fixed nature with a good measure of ‘fixed’ O&M to support it, is subject to cost-of-service regulation where price results from: • The math is not hard! ◦ If you add demand to the system without triggerin
Slide 5: A New LBNL Study Shows This Effect with Empirical Data
A NEW LBNL STUDY SHOWS THIS EFFECT WITH EMPIRICAL DATA • North Dakota the big winner of the demand-growth Olympics: If the numerator includes a lot of fixed grid costs that can fit a bunch more load under the hood, and demand booms, prices go down • Conversely, consider California: eroding the denom
Slide 6: But Will This Good-News Story About Demand Growth & Power Prices Hold True?
BUT WILL THIS GOOD-NEWS STORY ABOUT DEMAND GROWTH & POWER PRICES HOLD TRUE? Source: Ryan Wiser et al., “Factors Influencing Recent Trends in Retail Electricity Prices in the United States,” Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and The Brattle Group, October 2025, Slides 27 and 29 © 2025 NRG Energy,
Slide 7: How Much 'Headroom' Exists on the Power Grid Depends on Demand Flexibility
HOW MUCH ‘HEADROOM’ EXISTS ON THE POWER GRID DEPENDS ON ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT DEMAND FLEXIBILITY • Consider the airline industry: ◦ “Load factor” was also historically low—until regulatory policies introduced more competition around demand, at which point airlines optimized fleets, engaged in creative p
Slide 8: Can Demand Be as Dynamic as Supply?
CAN DEMAND BE AS DYNAMIC AS SUPPLY? • In the power sector, the market for supply has a lot of churn: new technologies, fast- US Net Summer Capacity Additions and Retirements (MW) by ramping capabilities (gas and batteries), Energy Source, 2020-2024 renewables that produce a lot of 60,000 intermitten
Slide 9: All of That Is Wrong (Part I)
ALL OF THAT IS WRONG (PART I) • Prices can now be sent to end-use customers, or to retailers/distributed- energy-resource providers who may intermediate those prices on their behalf through automation • Advanced Metering Infrastructure becoming ubiquitous (~three- quarters of all U.S. customers) Sou
Slide 10: All of That Is Wrong (Part II)
ALL OF THAT IS WRONG (PART II) Marginal costs are no longer low and/or flat, because: ◦ There are periods of great abundance of zero-marginal cost energy, and there are periods where scarcity reigns. See California’s “duck curve” at right. ◦ Demand growth at peak requires new capital investments in
Slide 11: The Markets Come at You Fast!
THE MARKETS COME AT YOU FAST! 6:55 p.m., Apr 27, 2022 8:15 p.m., Apr. 27, 2022 © 2025 NRG Energy, Inc. All rights reserved. / Proprietary and Confidential Information 11
Slide 12: All of That Is Wrong (Parts III & IV)
ALL OF THAT IS WRONG (PARTS III & IV) • Flat rate design is contrary to the core principle of regulated ratemaking, that prices should equal costs; a ‘flat rate’ seems incompatible with ‘cost of service’ regulation in any precise sense • Customers behaviorally respond to pricing, and technology give
Slide 13: Smart Meters, Dumb Rates
SMART METERS, DUMB RATES Meters • Commissioner Rob Powelson (PA PUC): “To be frank, it is pointless to have smart meters if you are still going to have ‘dumb’ rates.” (2009) Smart Dumb • Pennsylvania law (AB 129) makes smart meter deployment contingent on time-varying rate offerings. • By 2019, Firs
Slide 14: Smart Meters, Dumb Rates (Cont'd)
SMART METERS, DUMB RATES (CONT’D) © 2025 NRG Energy, Inc. All rights reserved. / Proprietary and Confidential Information 14
Slide 15: Can Electricity 'Apps' Be as Exciting as the Stuff on Your Phone?
CAN ELECTRICITY ‘APPS’ BE AS EXCITING AS THE STUFF ON YOUR PHONE? © 2025 NRG Energy, Inc. All rights reserved. / Proprietary and Confidential Information 15
Slide 16: VPPs Provide Flexibility to the Grid
VPPS PROVIDE FLEXIBILITY TO THE GRID © 2025 NRG Energy, Inc. All rights reserved. / Proprietary and Confidential Information 16
Slide 17: Residential Applications of VPP
RESIDENTIAL APPLICATIONS OF VPP © 2025 NRG Energy, Inc. All rights reserved. / Proprietary and Confidential Information 17
Slide 18: Combining Smart Home Capabilities with Energy Supply
COMBINING SMART HOME CAPABILITIES WITH ENERGY SUPPLY © 2025 NRG Energy, Inc. All rights reserved. / Proprietary and Confidential Information 18
Slide 19: Making VPP Accessible at Scale
MAKING VPP ACCESSIBLE AT SCALE © 2025 NRG Energy, Inc. All rights reserved. / Proprietary and Confidential Information 19
Slide 20: VPP Optimized Load Reduction
VPP OPTIMIZED LOAD REDUCTION • Learn customers’ schedules • Listen to them when they say they want to make a change • Personalized optimization - Occupancy & individual preferences • Maximizing value for customer & VPP © 2025 NRG Energy, Inc. All rights reserved. / Proprietary and Confidential Infor
Slide 21: NRG & Renew Home Announced a 1 GW Virtual Power Plant
NRG & RENEW HOME ANNOUNCED A 1 GW VIRTUAL POWER PLANT © 2025 NRG Energy, Inc. All rights reserved. / Proprietary and Confidential Information 21
Slide 22: Travis Kavulla
Travis Kavulla Vice President, Regulatory Affairs NRG Energy (406) 788-3419 travis.kavulla@nrg.com © 2025 NRG Energy, Inc. All rights reserved. / Proprietary and Confidential Information 22
Slide 23: An Illustrative Example of Utility Time-Varying Rate Design
AN ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE OF UTILITY TIME-VARYING RATE DESIGN National Grid (MA) cost structure justifies a TOU supply Oil-fired generation as a % of total supply in ISO-NE 01/21 to price spread of 3x- 4x 01/23 On-Peak Off-Peak Supply 12% Transmission 10% Capacity Winter 8% • 4 3-month pricing seasons
Slide 24: Monthly Subscriptions: An Idea Not Yet Implemented
MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTIONS: AN IDEA NOT YET IMPLEMENTED • Subscriptions offered by utility • Third party aggregators/brokers could evaluate offers and manage risk • Hedges • Comprehensive device management Source: California Public Utility Commission, Demand Response and Retail Rates Sections, Energy Div