Geiger Counter Limited · LSE:GCL
Geiger Counter — Investor Presentation (April 2020)
24 slides from Geiger Counter's investor presentation, April 2020
Slide 1: Geiger Counter Limited
Geiger Counter Limited April 2020 All investors should ensure that they have received and read the latest Offering Documentation and Pre-Investment Disclosure which is available from CQS at clientservice@cqsm.com
Slide 2: CQS at a glance: founded 1999, headquartered in London
1999 Headquartered in London with investment offices in Founded New York and Hong Kong 270+ Staff We adopt a fundamental, $15.4bn Across the Globe research-driven approach across the entire capital structure AUM Team of 90+ investment professionals including specialist instrument level research, as
Slide 3: Snapshot
Snapshot • Investment trust – focused on Uranium mining companies • Gross assets £15.4m* • 43 Holdings, Top 5 are 61.1% • Gearing 18.20% • Uranium is good diversifier to market volatility – less volatile utility demand • Deep value focus through bottom up analysis • Existing positions are well place
Slide 4: Geiger Fund Performance
Geiger Fund Performance 300 90 80 250 70 200 60 50 150 40 100 30 20 50 10 0 0 Jul 2006 Oct 2007 Jan 2009 Apr 2010 Jul 2011 Oct 2012 Jan 2014 Apr 2015 Jul 2016 Oct 2017 Jan 2019 Apr 2020 GCL LN Equity (GBP) (R1) GCL LN Equity (GBP) (L1) URA US Equity (GBP) (L1) UXA1 Comdty (GBP) (R1) Source: Bloomber
Slide 5: Uranium Market Overview
Uranium Market Overview Demand growth Supply discipline Nuclear power not going away Equities decouple 5
Slide 6: Month-end Uranium Price 1970 to Present
Month-end Uranium Price 1970 to Present 250 200 World Uranium Production Secondary Production Uranium Price (Nominal) Uranium Price (Real) 180 2020: COVID-19 Pandemic. Cigar Lake Suspension; 200 160 Kazatomprom 10Mlb Production (Mlb U3O8) Production Curtailment; 2006: Cigar Namibian Mining Lake Floo
Slide 7: Production Today
Production Today • Concentrated production - 9 “producers” control circa 90% of mine supply • Supply shock risk from highly concentrated production from regions, companies and mines • Geopolitical risks - Kazakhstan 40%, Russia ex-FSU 5% of primary mine supply • Imbalances - USA only 3% of primary s
Slide 8: Demand Growth Fuelled by New Builds
Demand Growth Fuelled by New Builds • Chinese air quality driving nuclear expansion Uranium Production • China, India and Russia represent over 65% of the 493 reactors in the construction, planned or proposed categories1 200.0 • Chinese cookie cutter – new generation designs are safer, 180.0 larger,
Slide 9: Uranium Demand Growth: Driven by Environmental Policy in China
Uranium Demand Growth: Driven by Environmental Policy in the China Nuclear generation back to pre-Fukishima levels1 Socially not just economically driven Bring back blue skies Xi Jinping: August 2018 We will make our skies blue again Li Keqiang: December 2015 Sources: WNISR, with IAEA-PRIS, July 201
Slide 10: Supply Closures Put the Market Firmly into Deficit
Supply Closures Put the Market Firmly into Deficit Global Uranium Supply vs. Demand (Mlbs/yr)1 250 Primary Mined Production • Kazakhstan announces 10% reduction in production to be Secondary Supply and Inventories maintained for 3 years2 230 BMO Demand Forecast Inc. BIB* • Cameco announce closure of
Slide 11: Total Cost Curve (US$/lb U3O8)
11 Total Cost Curve (US$/lb U3O8) 100 70 90 80 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Baghalcar/Issa Khel Jaduguda 130 Husab Total Cost 2020 (estimates include Royalties, Opex, Depreciation, Corporate G&A, Net Interest)1 120 China Various Lost Creek White Mesa Mill and Deposits Rossing Beverley (4 Mile East) 110 Dal
Slide 12: Catalysts / Themes
Catalysts/ Themes Chinese focus air quality drives long-term reactor build-out 10 year contracts now rolling off and uneconomic Slow Japan restarts supply is closing Global electrification Utilities will need to contract after significant absence during US 232 investigation and inventory u
Slide 13: Equity Disconnect
Equity Disconnect Equities Lag Physical Price 160 160 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 Jul/2006 Oct/2007 Jan/2009 Apr/2010 Jul/2011 Oct/2012 Jan/2014 Apr/2015 Jul/2016 Oct/2017 Jan/2019 Apr/2020 GCL LN Equity (L1) GCL LN Equity (L1) URA US Equity (GBP) (L1) UXA1 Comdty (R1) Source
Slide 14: Portfolio
COS | Portfolio
Slide 15: Geiger Portfolio Positioning
Geiger Portfolio Positioning1 2% 12% Focus on countries with good geology and mining-friendly environment 37% 13% Strong emphasis on companies which can deliver growth or prospect for improvement in production and reserves 10% Global mandate yet the portfolio is 26% predominantly in North Amer
Slide 16: Appendix
COS | Appendix
Slide 17: Summary
Summary • Geiger Counter Limited (‘Geiger Counter’) is a CISX-listed (traded on LSE’s SETSqx) 1 closed-ended fund with assets of c. £20.6m2 • Launched in July 2006, Geiger Counter aims to provide long term capital growth by investment in companies in the energy sector, predominantly within the urani
Slide 18: Portfolio Management Team
Portfolio Management Team Geiger Counter Team Key CQS Resources Keith Watson Joint Portfolio Manager Sir Michael Hintze Founder, Group Executive Chairman & Robert Crayfourd Senior Investment Officer of CQS Joint Portfolio Manager Ian ‘Franco’ Francis Portfolio Managers Senior Portfolio Manager Craig
Slide 19: Fund Premium
Premium to Net Asset Value 30 20 10 Fund Premium 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 July January July January July January July June January 2008 2010 2011 2013 2014 2016 2017 2019 2019 Source: Bloomberg as at 14 June 2019. 19
Slide 20: Nuclear Required to Meet Paris Climate Accord
Nuclear Required to Meet Paris Climate Accord • In 2018, 11.2 GW of additional Current and Future Capacity nuclear capacity were connected to the grid, the largest increase since 1989. • SDS = IEA’s sustainable development scenario to meet the Paris Climate Accord Source: IEA. https://www.iea.org/tc
Slide 21: Biographies
Biographies Keith Watson Keith is joint Portfolio Manager for Golden Prospect Precious Metals Limited, Geiger Counter Limited, New City Energy Limited and City Natural Resources High Yield Trust plc. Keith joined CQS in July 2013 from Mirabaud Securities where he was a Senior Natural Resource Analys
Slide 22: Contact Information
Contact Information London New York Hong Kong Craig Cleland Email: craig.cleland@cqsm.com Tel: +44 207 201 5368 Sydney Email: clientservice@cqsm.com Web: www.cqs.com London New York Hong Kong Sydney CQS (UK) LLP CQS (US) LLC CQS (Hong Kong) Limited CQS Investment Management (Australia) Pty Limited 4
Slide 23: Important Information
Important Information This document has been issued by CQS (UK) LLP (FRN 400496) which is authorised and regulated as appropriate (each an “Offering Document”). Any Transaction will be subject to the terms set out in by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and/or (as the case may be) CQS (US), LLC whi
Slide 24: Important Information
Important Information The Statements should not in any way be relied upon, and involve inherent risk and uncertainties The majority of the prescribed information is contained in the latest Offering Document of the AIF. The beyond CQS’s control. The Statements should not be assumed to be accurate or