Slide 1: Mosaic's 2nd Quarter Fiscal 2010 Earnings and Conference Call
Mosaic’s 2 Quarter Fiscal 2010 Earnings and Conference Call Wednesday, January 6, 2010 Jim Prokopanko, President and CEO Dr. Mike Rahm, VP Market Analysis & Strategic Planning Christine Battist, Director - Investor Relations Exhibit 99.2 nd
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statement
Safe Harbor Statement This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the curren
Slide 3: Mosaic Sustainability Report
Mosaic Sustainability Report www.mosaicco.com/sustainability Six principles that define Mosaic’s commitment to sustainability 1. Investing in people 2. Ensuring environmental stewardship for responsible land and natural resource use. 3. Applying effective agronomic principles to help meet increasing
Slide 4: Mosaic's 2nd Quarter Fiscal 2010
Mosaic’s 2 Quarter Fiscal 2010 nd
Slide 5: Financial Results
Financial Results 11/30/09 11/30/08 11/30/09 11/30/08 (In millions, except per share amounts) Net Sales Gross Margin (% of net sales) Net Earnings (% of net sales) Diluted EPS Effective Tax Rate Cash Flow from Operations Six Months Ended Three Months Ended Cash and Cash Equivalents as of November 30
Slide 6: Mosaic's 2nd Quarter Fiscal 2010
Mosaic’s 2 nd Quarter Fiscal 2010
Slide 7: Financial Results by Segment
Financial Results by Segment (in millions) 11/30/09 11/30/08 11/30/09 11/30/08 Net Sales Operating Earnings Net Sales Operating Earnings Net Sales (Eliminations) Operating Earnings (Loss) Net Sales Operating Earnings Three Months Ended Six Months Ended Potash Phosphates Corporate/Other Total $414.3
Slide 8: Financial Guidance
Financial Guidance 3rd Qtr FY 2010 FY 2010 Phosphate Sales Volume 2.2 - 2.6 million tonnes (total segment) DAP Selling Price $310 - $350 per tonne Capital Spending $1.0 billion - $1.2 billion SG&A $350 - $370 million Effective Tax Rate High 20% range Note: Mosaic is not providing financial guidance
Slide 9: Mosaic's 2nd Quarter Fiscal 2010
Mosaic’s nd Quarter Fiscal 2010
Slide 10: Positive Developments Bolster Demand Outlook
Positive Developments Bolster Demand Outlook Agricultural commodity price rally
Slide 11: Another Harvest Rally
Another Harvest Rally 2010 New Crop Prices Daily Close of New Crop Options August 1, 2009 to January 5, 2010 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Corn $ BU 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50 10.00 10.50 11.00 Soybeans $ Bu Dec 10 Corn Nov 10 Soybeans Source: CME
Slide 12: Positive Developments Bolster Demand Outlook
Positive Developments Bolster Demand Outlook Agricultural commodity price rally Ideal November weather salvages a fall application season in North America
Slide 13: Domestic P&K Shipments Rebound in November
Domestic P&K Shipments Rebound in November U.S. DAP and MAP Domestic Shipments 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Mil Tons MIN MAX Range (2004/05-2008/09) 2009/10 3-Yr Average Source: TFI North America MOP Domestic Disapperance 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Slide 14: Positive Developments Bolster Demand Outlook
Positive Developments Bolster Demand Outlook Agricultural commodity price rally Ideal November weather salvages a fall application season in North America Recovery in P&K application rates
Slide 15: Crop Nutrient Costs Have Declined
Crop Nutrient Costs Have Declined Crop Nutrient Costs on Corn in Iowa Bushels of Corn Per Acre 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: Iowa State University, USDA and Mosaic Bu Corn
Slide 16: Positive Developments Bolster Demand Outlook
Positive Developments Bolster Demand Outlook Agricultural commodity price rally Ideal November weather salvages a fall application season in North America Recovery in P&K application rates China imports ~600,000 tonnes of DAP
Slide 17: Positive Developments Bolster Demand Outlook
Positive Developments Bolster Demand Outlook Agricultural commodity price rally Ideal November weather salvages a fall application season in North America Recovery in P&K application rates China imports ~600,000 tonnes of DAP Customers begin to position phosphate for deferred application
Slide 18: Market Impact
Market Impact Phosphate prices surge (expectations of a seasonal drop change quickly) 2009 Weekly DAP Prices fob Tampa Vessel 1/1/09 3/1/09 5/1/09 7/1/09 9/1/09 11/1/09 1/1/10 $ MT Source: Fertecon
Slide 19: Market Impact
Market Impact Phosphate prices surge (expectations of a seasonal drop change quickly) Potash buyers remain cautious (expectations of a price decline) • Hand-to-mouth shipments to meet end user demand • Minimal channel inventories
Slide 20: Mosaic's 2nd Quarter Fiscal 2010
Mosaic’s 2 nd Quarter Fiscal 2010
Slide 21: Factors To Watch
Factors To Watch Agricultural commodity prices • Weather • Dollar, oil and commodity fund strategies
Slide 22: Global Stocks Still Not Secure
Global Stocks Still Not Secure World Grain and Oilseed Stocks L M H Mil Tonnes 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 28% 31% 34% Percent Stocks Percent of Use Source: USDA and Mosaic (for 10/11 scenarios) 2010/11 Scenario Assumptions Low Medium High Harvested Area Change -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% Yield Deviation from 11-
Slide 23: Factors To Watch
Factors To Watch Agricultural commodity prices • Weather • Dollar, oil and commodity fund strategies Potash demand response to lower prices
Slide 24: Factors To Watch
Factors To Watch Agricultural commodity prices • Weather • Dollar, oil and commodity fund strategies Potash demand response to lower prices Government policies • China phosphate export tax
Slide 25: Factors To Watch
Factors To Watch Agricultural commodity prices • Weather • Dollar, oil and commodity fund strategies Potash demand response to lower prices Government policies • China phosphate export tax Potential N America supply chain pinch points
Slide 26: 2010 Outlook
2010 Outlook Strong recovery in P&K demand and shipments • High agricultural commodity prices and solid farm economics • Need to re-stock a bare distribution pipeline • Potential North American supply chain bottlenecks this spring
Slide 27: 2010 Outlook
2010 Outlook Strong recovery in P&K demand and shipments • High agricultural commodity prices and solid farm economics • Need to re-stock a bare distribution pipeline • Potential North American supply chain bottlenecks this spring Phosphate market remains tight • Strong domestic and offshore demand
Slide 28: 2010 Outlook
2010 Outlook Strong recovery in P&K demand and shipments • High agricultural commodity prices and solid farm economics • Need to re-stock a bare distribution pipeline • Potential North American supply chain bottlenecks this spring Phosphate market remains tight • Strong domestic and offshore demand
Slide 29: Mosaic's 2nd Quarter Fiscal 2010
Mosaic’s 2 nd Quarter Fiscal 2010
Slide 30: Mosaic Positioned for Demand Recovery
Mosaic Positioned for Demand Recovery Confident in outlook for agriculture • Farmer economics are strong • Continued strong grain and oilseed demand growth Positive trends • Phosphates – uptick in pricing; demand at normal levels • Potash – demand will emerge soon Commitment to value creation • Grow
Slide 31: Thank you
Mosaic’s 2 nd Quarter Fiscal 2010 Thank you