Freshpet, Inc. · NASDAQ:FRPT

Freshpet — Q2 2022 Earnings Presentation

61 slides from Freshpet's earnings presentation, Aug 8, 2022

  1. Slide 1: Q2 2022 Earnings Presentation

    pets. people. planet. Q2 2022 Earnings Presentation August 8, 2022 1

  2. Slide 2: Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Measures

    Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Measures Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements in this presentation by Freshpet, Inc. (the “Company”) constitute “forward-looking” statements, which include any statements related to the novel coronavirus ("COVID-19"), the Freshpet Kitchens Expansion, ou

  3. Slide 3: Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Measures (cont.)

    Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Measures (cont.) Freshpet defines Adjusted Gross Profit as gross profit before depreciation expense, plant start-up expense, COVID-19 expenses and non-cash share-based compensation, and Adjusted SG&A as SG&A expenses before depreciation and amortization expense,

  4. Slide 4: Nourishing Pets, People and Planet

    Nourishing Pets, People and Planet Freshpet strengthens the bond between people and our pets so that we both live longer, healthier and happier lives -- while being kind to the planet 4

  5. Slide 5: Q2 2022 Results

    freshpet Q2 2022 Results

  6. Slide 6: Strong net sales growth offset by inflation and operating challenges

    Strong net sales growth offset by inflation and operating challenges Net Sales Freshpet Q2 2022 Financial Results Adj. EBITDA $160 $146.0 $14 $140 +34% $12 $120 $10.9 $108.6 $100 -3% $10 +36% $8 $80 $6 $60 $3.9 $4 $40 -65% $20 $2 $0 $0 Q2 2021 Q2 2022 Net Sales ($ millions) Adj. EBITDA ($ millions)

  7. Slide 7: Net Sales growth driven by volume/mix, pricing and partially offset by trade inventory re-fill

    Net Sales growth driven by volume/mix, pricing and partially offset by trade inventory re-fill in the YA 7 Source: Nielsen consumption data thru 7/2/22 and internal sales data

  8. Slide 8: Q2 Adj. EBITDA impacted by timing, inflation and operational issues

    Q2 Adj. EBITDA impacted by timing, inflation and operational issues Price increase to offset these costs in Q4 Higher cost diesel, lane rates, fill rates & start- Increased up of new disposals, warehouse processing and earlier than testing due to planned June quality issue; non- Increased 1st half r

  9. Slide 9: Decline in Adj. Gross Margin due to quality issue and inflation

    Decline in Adj. Gross Margin due to quality issue and inflation Q2 2022 Adj. Gross Margin Progress 46.1% 43.8% Estimated impact of quality issue Reported Adj. 42.4% Gross Margin Q2 2021 Q2 2022 39.7% 35.0% Gross Margin (GAAP) 9 Freshpet defines Adjusted Gross Profit as gross profit before depreciati

  10. Slide 10: Price increase gains partially offset by inflation, quality issue and other minor issues

    Price increase gains partially offset by inflation, quality issue and other minor issues 10 Freshpet defines Adjusted Gross Profit as gross profit before depreciation expense, plant start-up expense, non-cash share-based compensation and COVID-19 expenses

  11. Slide 11: Strong production rates continue

    Strong production rates continue Year-on-Year Production Performance Comparison Omicron: ERP Rolling 7-Day Average Pounds Produced 800,000 Shut down 1 Conversion line 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1/1/2022 2/1/2022 3/1/2022 4/1/2022 5/1/2022 6/1/2022 7/1/2022 8/1/2022 9/1

  12. Slide 12: Pulled media forward to sell our way through the price increase

    Pulled media forward to sell our way through the price increase Q2 2022 Adj. SG&A Leverage 39.7% 36.1% Freight costs: +50 bps 16.3% 12.3% 12.9% 11.9% +340 bps Q2 2021 Q2 2022 Adj. SG&A % Excluding Media & Logistics Media % Total Adj. SG&A % 45.6% 47.4% SG&A (GAAP) Freshpet defines Adjusted SG&A as S

  13. Slide 13: Diesel costs increased dramatically in the past 4 months, but recent trends show some relief

    $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 Sep 13, 2021 Sep 20, 2021 Sep 27, 2021 Oct 04, 2021 Oct 11, 2021 Oct 18, 2021 Oct 25, 2021 Nov 01, 2021 Nov 08, 2021 Nov 15, 2021 Nov 22, 2021 Nov 29, 2021 Dec 06, 2021 Dec 13, 2021 2022 Guidance Assumption Dec 20, 2021 Source: US Energy Information Ad

  14. Slide 14: Year-to-Date 2022 Results Thru Q2

    Year-to-Date 2022 Results Thru Q2 14

  15. Slide 15: First half results impacted by Q2 challenges

    First half results impacted by Q2 challenges Net Sales Freshpet YTD Financial Results (June 30) Adj. EBITDA $300 $20 $18.6 $278.2 $18 +10% +38% $250 $16 $202.0 $14 $200 +35% $12 $150 $9.0 $10 -52% $8 $100 $6 $4 $50 $2 $0 $0 2021 2022 Net Sales ($ millions) Adj. EBITDA ($ millions) 15

  16. Slide 16: YTD decline in Adj. Gross Margin due to quality issue and inflation

    YTD decline in Adj. Gross Margin due to quality issue and inflation YTD Adj. Gross Margin Progress 46.4% 42.1% 2021 2022 39.3% 34.5% Gross Margin (GAAP) 16 Freshpet defines Adjusted Gross Profit as gross profit before depreciation expense, plant start-up expense, non-cash share-based compensation an

  17. Slide 17: First half media investment increased to reflect better in-stocks and offset higher pricing

    First half media investment increased to reflect better in- stocks and to offset higher pricing YTD Q2 2022 Adj. SG&A Leverage 39.0% 37.2% Freight costs: -50 bps 16.3% 13.4% 12.5% 11.9% +380 bps FY 2021 FY 2022 Adj. SG&A % Excluding Media & Logistics Media % Total Adj. SG&A % 47.3% 46.7% SG&A (GAAP)

  18. Slide 18: 2022 Guidance

    freshpet 2022 Guidance

  19. Slide 19: Updating Adj. EBITDA guidance to reflect timing mismatch on pricing/inflation and quality issue

    Updating Adj. EBITDA guidance to reflect timing mismatch on pricing/inflation and quality issue Net Sales Freshpet Financial Projections Adj. EBITDA $100 $700 $90 $600 $575.0 $575.0 $80 +35% +35% • Re-affirming Net Sales guidance $70 $500 • Adj. EBITDA guidance reduced to account for: $55.0 $60 • Co

  20. Slide 20: Timing mismatch on costs and pricing have cost ~$19 million of Adj. EBITDA this year

    Timing mismatch on costs and pricing have cost ~$19 million of Adj. EBITDA this year ~ ~ ~ +91% ~ +12% 20

  21. Slide 21: Adj. Gross Margin has been negatively impacted by inflation, quality issue and buffer capacity

    Adj. Gross Margin has been negatively impacted by inflation, quality issue and buffer capacity 21

  22. Slide 22: Projected 2022 capital spending reduced by $80 million; will support >$1 billion in 2023 capacity

    Projected 2022 capital spending reduced by $80 million; will support >$1 billion in 2023 capacity Projected Capital Spending Targeted Annualized Net Sales Capacity ($ millions) ($ in billions) ~$320 ~$300 $2.9 $2.1 ~$200 $1.5 $1.2 ~$100 $0.9 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 Full Capacity 22

  23. Slide 23: 2022 Freshpet Guidance: Net Sales

    2022 Freshpet Guidance: Net Sales Key Drivers of Net Sales Cadence Q1 Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 FY 2022 ++ -- ++ - 35+% growth vs YA Out-of-stocks and delayed marketing investment in YA Front loaded media investment (75/25) Complete trade Warehouse inventory refill on issue in YA bags ERP conversion Significa

  24. Slide 24: 2022 Freshpet Guidance: Adj. Gross Margin

    2022 Freshpet Guidance: Adj. Gross Margin Key Drivers of Adj. Gross Margin Cadence Q1 Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 FY 2022 + + - -- 40.8% (down ~370 bps vs YA) Buffer capacity Inflation in cost of materials, labor and transportation Second price increase ERP conversion Quality issue Third price increase Ennis st

  25. Slide 25: 2022 Freshpet Guidance: Adj. EBITDA

    2022 Freshpet Guidance: Adj. EBITDA Key Drivers of Adj. EBITDA Cadence Q1 Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 FY 2022 - -- + + 8.3% Adj. EBITDA Margin Buffer capacity Front loaded media investment (72/25) Ennis start-up/under-utilization Mismatch between inflation costs and pricing Third price increase Lower advertisin

  26. Slide 26: Household Penetration & Buying Rate

    Household Penetration & Buying Rate

  27. Slide 27: Updated Nielsen HH panel methodology shows a larger consumer franchise

    Updated Nielsen HH panel methodology shows a larger consumer franchise and balanced growth in penetration and buying rate Freshpet Household Penetration Growth Freshpet Buying Rate 4,923,734 $141.58 4,372,082 +13% $121.31 +17% 3,813,635 +15% $104.61 +16% 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Total Penetrati

  28. Slide 28: Still on path to meet our 2025 HH penetration goal

    Still on path to meet our 2025 HH penetration goal Progress Towards 2025 Household Penetration Goal 6.08 2025 Goal: 11 Million HH’s 4.92 Current HH Penetration Households to Achieve 2025 Target Source: Nielsen HH Panel for the period ending 7/16/22 28

  29. Slide 29: Nielsen's updated methodology for projecting HH penetration shows larger number of HH's

    Nielsen’s updated methodology for projecting HH penetration shows a larger number of HH’s and more rapid growth Comparison of Old and New Nielsen HH Panel Methodology June 2022 Data Freshpet Penetration Growth Freshpet Penetration Growth (Nielsen’s previous method) (Nielsen’s new method) 4,891,977 4

  30. Slide 30: Nielsen's updated methodology lowers calculated buying rate and growth

    Nielsen’s updated methodology for projecting HH penetration lowers our calculated buying rate and buying rate growth Comparison of Old and New Nielsen HH Panel Methodology June 2022 Data Freshpet Buying Rate Freshpet Buying Rate (Nielsen’s previous method) (Nielsen’s new method) $154.59 $139.15 $127

  31. Slide 31: Pricing Impact

    freshpet Pricing Impact

  32. Slide 32: Price sensitivity in line with our projections

    Price sensitivity in line with our projections Total Freshpet Unit Price Sensitivity 1,550,000 $11.00 1,500,000 units $10.50 1,450,000 $10.00 1,400,000 1,350,000 $9.50 1,300,000 price $9.00 1,250,000 $8.50 1,200,000 1,150,000 $8.00 Freshpet Total RFG Total MegaChannel (xAOC+Pet) Units Freshpet Total

  33. Slide 33: Freshpet buyers holding up better than the category and have begun to bounce back

    Freshpet buyers holding up better than the category and they have begun to bounce back Freshpet vs Total Dog Food Buying HHs Rolling Past 4 Week Buyers 35,000,000 2,500,000 34,000,000 Freshpet 2,000,000 33,000,000 1,500,000 32,000,000 1,000,000 31,000,000 Total Dog Food 500,000 30,000,000 29,000,000

  34. Slide 34: 52WE 2022-07-10, Rolling 52WE 2022-06-19, Rolling 52WE 2022-05-29, Rolling

    1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 0 500,000 52WE 2019-01-06, Rolling 52WE 2019-01-27, Rolling 52WE 2019-02-17, Rolling 52WE 2019-03-10, Rolling 52WE 2019-03-31, Rolling 52WE 2019-04-21, Rolling 52WE 2019-05-12, Rolling Source: Numerator Data thru 7/24/22 52WE 2019-06-02, Rolling 52WE

  35. Slide 35: 04WE 2022-07-10, Rolling 04WE 2022-06-19, Rolling 04WE 2022-05-29, Rolling

    1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 04WE 2019-01-06, Rolling 04WE 2019-01-27, Rolling 04WE 2019-02-17, Rolling 04WE 2019-03-10, Rolling 04WE 2019-03-31, Rolling 04WE 2019-04-21, Rolling 04WE 2019-05-12, Rolling Source: Numerator Data thru 7/24/22 04WE 2019-06-02, Rolling

  36. Slide 36: Current Consumption Trends

    Current Consumption Trends

  37. Slide 37: Strong, sustained growth entering traditional pre-pandemic summer consumption pattern

    Strong, sustained growth entering traditional pre-pandemic summer consumption pattern Nielsen Mega-Channel Consumption 18,000,000 16,000,000 Nielsen Mega-Channel consumption vs. YA: • Latest 4 weeks: +37% 14,000,000 • Q2: +41% • Q3 to date: 37% • YTD: +39% 12,000,000 +37% vs. YA (w/e 7/30/22) 10,000

  38. Slide 38: On a 3-year stacked basis, our growth is remarkably consistent

    On a 3-year stacked basis, our growth is remarkably consistent Nielsen Mega-Channel Consumption Growth 3-Year Stacked 102% 101%100% 100%100%101%99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 95% 93% 97% 96% 97% 98% 96% 94% 92% 93% 91% 93% 92% 94% 91% 92% 92% 90% 89% 38% 31% 27% 43% 41% 43%36%43%40%43% 45% 40%40% 37% 73% 42% 4

  39. Slide 39: Q2 2022 consumption: Strong growth in all channels

    Q2 2022 consumption: Strong growth in all channels Latest 13wk Nielsen Consumption Growth 45% 46% 41% 22% Mega-Channel XAOC Food Big Box Pet 39 Source: Nielsen consumption data thru 7/2/22

  40. Slide 40: Distribution growth continues

    4 W/E 01/06/18 42.9 4 W/E 02/03/18 43.1 4 W/E 03/03/18 43.5 4 W/E 03/31/18 43.9 4 W/E 04/28/18 44.2 4 W/E 05/26/18 44.5 4 W/E 06/23/18 4 W/E 07/21/18 44.744.9 4 W/E 08/18/18 4 W/E 09/15/18 45.045.3 4 W/E 10/13/18 4 W/E 11/10/18 4 W/E 12/08/18 Source: Nielsen Mega-Channel Data thru 7/30/22 4 W/E 01/0

  41. Slide 41: Retail availability remains at a high level

    500.0 550.0 600.0 650.0 700.0 750.0 850.0 900.0 800.0 1 W/E 05/30/20 1 W/E 06/13/20 1 W/E 06/27/20 1 W/E 07/11/20 1 W/E 07/25/20 1 W/E 08/08/20 1 W/E 08/22/20 1 W/E 09/05/20 1 W/E 09/19/20 1 W/E 10/03/20 Source: Nielsen Mega-Channel Data thru 7/30/22 1 W/E 10/17/20 1 W/E 10/31/20 1 W/E 11/14/20 1 W/

  42. Slide 42: Freshpet is now the leading brand in the grocery channel

    On a total brand basis, Freshpet is now the leading brand in the grocery channel Total Wet & Dry Dog Food Brands Dollar Sales: US Food (Latest 13wks thru 7/16/22 -- $M ) Freshpet Total RFG $105,220 Pedigree Total Dog Food $88,320 Blue Buffalo Total Dog Food $80,553 Purina ONE Total Dog Food $75,911

  43. Slide 43: Freshpet is now the #4 brand in the dog food category

    Freshpet is now the #4 brand in the dog food category Top Dog Food Brands Dollar Share Mega-Channel 13 weeks ending 7/16/22 Pedigree Total Dog Food 12.8 Private Label Total Dog Food 10.2 Blue Buffalo Total Dog Food 8.1 Purina ONE Total Dog Food 6.8 Freshpet Total RFG 6.1 Cesar Total Dog Food 5.3 Pur

  44. Slide 44: Building meaningful share of the category

    Building meaningful share of the category Freshpet $ Share of Wet & Dry Dog 14.3 14.5 13.8 12.7 7.3 7.5 7.2 6.8 5.9 6.1 5.8 5.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 4wk 13wk 26wk 52wk Freshpet Share of Wet + Dry Dog Total US Food Total US xAOC Mega-Channel Pet Superstore 44 Source: Nielsen Mega-Channel Data thru 7/16/22

  45. Slide 45: Q2 2022 Freshpet E-Com grew 92% vs YA

    Q2 2022 Freshpet E-Com grew 92% vs YA 16% Online Fresh Delivery 26% Last Mile Delivery $12.1MM 7.8% % of Total FP Sales 58% Click & Collect Through E-Com 84% of Sales Contribute to Brick & Mortar 45

  46. Slide 46: 1H 2022 Freshpet E-Com 86% vs YA

    1H 2022 Freshpet E-Com 86% vs YA 16% Online Fresh Delivery 26% Last Mile Delivery $23.2MM 7.9% % of Total FP Sales 58% Click & Collect Through E-Com 84% of Sales Contribute to Brick & Mortar 46

  47. Slide 47: Q2 2022 Visibility & Availability

    Q2 2022 Visibility & Availability

  48. Slide 48: Store count continues to grow

    Store count continues to grow Freshpet Store Count 24,277 23,631 22,716 21,570 2022 Guidance: +~1,300 to 24,931 19,499 18,004 16,609 15,015 13,387 10,826 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2Q 2022 48 Source: Internal data for the period ending 7/1/22

  49. Slide 49: Q2 2022: Strong increase in new stores

    Q2 2022: Strong increase in new stores Net New Stores Fridge Upgrades Second/Third Fridges 646 3,527 3,537 Store Count 3,003 3,108 24,277 439 346 265 617 631 23,155 277 331 Qtr. Increase YTD Increase Total Operating YTD Increase Total Operating YTD Increase Q2 2021 Q2 2022 Q2 2021 Q2 2022 Q2 2021 Q2

  50. Slide 50: Q2 2022: Continued success with placements of large and multi-fridge stores

    Q2 2022: Continued success with placements of large and multi-fridge stores Freshpet Fridge Fleet Installed Fridges by Size and Year Installed Distribution by Size (US & Canada) (US & Canada Stores) 6% 2% 8% 2% 1% 14% 4% 8% 17% 22% 18% 32% 63% 62% 68% 52% 50% 61% 25% 22% 25% 10% 8% Small Medium Larg

  51. Slide 51: International Business

    International Business 51

  52. Slide 52: Canadian business accelerating behind advertising investment

    $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 1/4/20 1/18/20 2/1/20 2/15/20 2/29/20 3/14/20 3/28/20 4/11/20 4/25/20 5/9/20 Source: Internal company data through 7/16/22 5/23/20 6/6/20 6/20/20 7/4/20 7/18/20 8/1/20 8/15/20 8/29/20 9/12/20 9/26/20 10/10/20 10/24/20 11/7/20 11/21/20 12/5/20 12/19/20 1/2/

  53. Slide 53: Freshpet's advertising-driven model works in the UK

    Freshpet’s advertising-driven model works in the UK Freshpet UK Weekly Sales by Retailer £140,000 £117 £117 £120,000 £113 £112 £110 £110 £110 £111 £110 £110 £111 £108 £109 £108 £107 £108 £106 £107 £107 £105 £105 £104 £104 £102 £103 £102 £102 £102 £103 £101 £102 £103 £102 £103 £104 £103 £102 £103 £10

  54. Slide 54: Ennis Kitchen Update

    freshpet Ennis Kitchen Update

  55. Slide 55: Ennis Phase I is on track to open in Q3 and produce meaningful quantities in Q4

    Ennis Phase I is on track to open in Q3 and produce meaningful quantities in Q4 • Enables total Freshpet growth to >$1.1 billion in 2022 • Most environmentally sustainable Kitchen • Most efficient Freshpet Kitchen • Enables significant quality improvements • Enables lower cost logistics for part of

  56. Slide 56: "Feed the Growth" creates scale and leverage through accelerated growth rate

    “Feed the Growth” creates scale and leverage through accelerated growth rate 56

  57. Slide 57: Appendix

    Appendix

  58. Slide 58: Reconciliation Between Gross Profit and Adjusted Gross Profit

    FRESHPET, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES RECONCILIATION BETWEEN GROSS PROFIT AND ADJUSTED GROSS PROFIT Three Months Ended Six Months Ended June 30, June 30, 2022 2021 2022 2021 (Dollars in thousands) Gross profit $ 51,080 $ 43,091 $ 95,833 $ 79,405 Depreciation expense 4,295 4,021 8,996 7,821 Plant start-up

  59. Slide 59: Reconciliation Between SG&A Expenses and Adjusted SG&A Expenses

    FRESHPET, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES RECONCILIATION BETWEEN SG&A EXPENSES AND ADJUSTED SG&A EXPENSES Three Months Ended Six Months Ended June 30, June 30, 2022 2021 2022 2021 (Dollars in thousands) SG&A expenses $ 69,215 $ 49,557 $ 129,846 $ 95,589 Depreciation and amortization expense 3,585 3,633 6,871

  60. Slide 60: Reconciliation Between Net Income (Loss) and Adjusted EBITDA

    FRESHPET, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES RECONCILIATION BETWEEN NET INCOME (LOSS) AND ADJUSTED EBITDA Three Months Ended Six Months Ended June 30, June 30, 2022 2021 2022 2021 (ollars in thousands) Net loss S$ (20,586) $ (7,475) $ (38,128) $ (18,364) Depreciation and amortization 7,880 7,654 15,867 14,743 In

  61. Slide 61: Freshpet: Million HH by 2025

    freshpet 4 11 MILLION HH BY 2025

Freshpet — Q2 2022 Earnings Presentation on 6ix