Thai Oil Public Co. Ltd. · SET:TOP
Thai Oil Public — Q2 2019 Earnings Presentation
61 slides from Thai Oil Public's earnings presentation, Aug 14, 2019
Slide 1: Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q2/19 Analyst Presentation
-1- Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q2/19 Analyst Presentation 14 August 2019 Time : 10.00 - 12.00 hrs. Venue : ENCO, C Building, 6th Floor - Synergy Hall
Slide 2: Disclaimer
-2- Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. Some statements mad
Slide 3: Corporate Vision, Mission and Values
-3- Corporate Vision, Mission and Values Empower Human Life VISION through Sustainable Energy and Chemicals • To enrich stakeholders’ well-being and deliver sustainable returns MISSION built upon innovation, technology and resilient portfolio with top class management and accountable corporate gover
Slide 4: Corporate Governance
-4- Corporate Governance Corporate Governance Policy Roles and Responsibilities The board of directors, management and all staff shall commit to moral principles, equitable treatment to all for Stakeholders stakeholders and perform their duties for the company’s interest with dedication, integrity,
Slide 5: Our Achievement in Sustainable Development
-5- Our Achievement in Sustainable Development 6th Consecutive Year as the Member of DJSI Emerging Markets and high ranked positions.
Slide 6: Presentation Agenda
-6- Presentation Agenda Q2/19 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Q2/19 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS Q4/19 MARKET OUTLOOK
Slide 7: Q2/19 Key Highlights
Q2/19 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sanaon
Slide 8: Q2/19 Key Market Drivers Highlights
Key Highlights -8- Q2/19 Key Market Drivers Highlights Refinery Soften refinery margins pressured by higher crude premium due to Implication supply tightness as OPEC’s production cut and soften middle distillates Mkt GRM at 2.6 $/bbl 1) margin due to higher inventory and lower demand. But negative
Slide 9: Q2/19 Key Highlights
Key Highlights -9- Q2/19 Key Highlights Key Highlights Q2/19 TOP Group Net Profit Operational Maintain high reliable production Net Operating Profit Unit : million THB (MB) F/X Risk management gain/(loss) Excellence Stock gain/(loss) Q2/19 Q1/19 Reversal of Crude NRV /(Crude NRV) & Others i.e. Hed
Slide 10: 1H/19 Margin and Productivity Improvement (VS Corporate Plan)
Key Highlights -10- 1H/19 Margin and Productivity Improvement (VS Corporate Plan) Cost Management 175 MB 284 MB General & Admin , Procurement & warehouse , Operation & Maintenance , Project & Manpower Margin Improvement management Unit: million THB (Hydrocarbon Management : HMR) and Productivity Imp
Slide 11: Q2/19 Performance Analysis
-11- Q2/19 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
Slide 12: Refinery: High U-Rate Operation and Robust Domestic & CLMV Sales
Refining -12- Refinery: High U-Rate Operation and Robust Domestic & CLMV Sales TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate Domestic Oil Demand Unit: % Utilization Rate 1H/18 1H/19 1.2% 116% 113% 115% 115% 800.0 108% 110% 110% 110% 103% 600.0 0.3% 97% 97% 98% 98% 96% 97% 400.0 3.9% 90% 94% 95% 0.0% 200.0
Slide 13: Q2/19: Lower Mkt GRM pressured by Higher Crude Premium
Refining -13- Q2/19: Lower Mkt GRM pressured by Higher Crude Premium Refinery Utilization Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Q1/19 Q2/19 1H/19 2018 2019 2018 116% 103% 110% $/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 1H Q3TD* FY18 % MB Intake/OSP* DUBAI (DB) 63.9 72.1 74.3 67.4 63.5 67.4 65.4 61.3 69.4 3
Slide 14: Q2/19: Soften Aromatics Contribution pressured by Lower PX Spread
Aromatics/LAB -14- Q2/19: Soften Aromatics Contribution pressured by Lower PX Spread Aromatics Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production 2018 2019 2018 Q1/19 Q2/19 1H/19 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 1H Q3TD* FY18 92% 64% 78% PX**-ULG95 304 268 451 528 508 273 391 216 388 Q2/19 Market BZ**-ULG95 231 126 12
Slide 15: Q2/19: Recovered Contribution supported by Improved Bitumen Spread
Lube Base Oil -15- Q2/19: Recovered Contribution supported by Improved Bitumen Spread Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production 2018 2019 2018 Q1/19 Q2/19 1H/19 $/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 1H Q3TD* FY18 89% 85% 87% 500SN-HSFO 512 481 417 376 330 287 308 284 447 % Base Oil & Specialty Sale
Slide 16: Q2/19 Power Sector Performance…Growing Contribution to the Group
Power -16- Q2/19 Power Sector Performance…Growing Contribution to the Group Power Business Sector Equity holding in SPP GPSC **** 74% 100% ***TOP shareholding 24.29% (8.91% Power & Steam Sales via TOP and 20.79% via TP) 2,544 GPSC is an associate company of TOP. Electricity(1) Equity method is appli
Slide 17: Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost
Financial -17- Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost (Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl) Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense (net) (excl. one-time non- operating item) Higher refinery cash cost in Q2/19 mainly
Slide 18: Q2/19: Performance Breakdown by Business Unit
Performance Breakdown -18- Q2/19: Performance Breakdown by Business Unit Utilization/Production (%) & Net Profit (million THB) Key Points • Refinery: lower utilization due to MTA CDU-3 for 30 days (Mid Jun’19 – Mid Jul’19) • Aromatic/LAB: lower utilization due to maintenance TPX’s complex for 45 day
Slide 19: Q2 & 1H/19 TOP Group Consolidated P&L
Financial -19- Q2 & 1H/19 TOP Group Consolidated P&L (Unit : million THB) Q2/19 Q1/19 QoQ Q2/18 YoY 1H/19 1H/18 YoY (A) Sales Revenue 91,962 91,626 336 96,637 (4,675) 183,588 188,172 (4,584) (B) Hedging Gain / (Loss) 90 (166) 256 70 20 (76) 172 (248) (C) EBITDA 2,072 6,889 (4,817) 9,337 (7,265) 8,96
Slide 20: 1H/19 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow
Financial -20- 1H/19 TOP Group Consolidated Cash Flow (Unit: Million THB) 1H/19 1H/18 (Unit: Million THB) Investments 26,266 9,604 1H/19 1H/18 Dividend income 541 568 Operating Cash Flow 8,647 11,184 ST investments 36,259 10,420 Net income & non-cash adj. 10,013 17,666 + Available for sale - 919 Cha
Slide 21: Q2/19 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios
Financial -21- Q2/19 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 30 Jun 19 (Unit: million THB) Total IBD Net Debt 272,231 256,453 99,597 million THB 5,419 million THB Trade Payable 39,266 (US$ 3,114 million (US$ 169 millio
Slide 22: Q4/19 Market Outlook
Q4/19 MARKET OUTLOOK • Crude Oil • Petroleum Products • Aromatics • Base Oil & Bitumen • Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Slide 23: Crude Oil
CRUDE OIL
Slide 24: Softer Crude Price on Lower Oil Demand following Weak Economy
Crude Oil -24- Softer Crude Price on Lower Oil Demand following Weak Economy Dubai Price Movement $/BBL U.S. Re-imposed Falling Risk Assets Supply Loss OPEC-led Cut as FED raised rates from Iran and 100 Deal Extended Sanctions on Iran Venezuela on until the Dec-18 Concern Over Escalating OPEC-led Cu
Slide 25: Rising U.S. Production Counterbalanced by OPEC Production Cut and Supply Loss
Crude Oil -25- Rising U.S. Production Counterbalanced by OPEC Production Cut 1 and Supply Loss from Iran and Venezuela A Surging U.S. Crude Output to Hit Record High BC Lower OPEC Supply following Production Cut Deal MBD U.S. Crude Oil Production MBD MBD OPEC-11* Production *OPEC-11 excludes Qatar (
Slide 26: Soft Oil Demand due to Lower Economic Growth
Crude Oil -26- 2 Soft Oil Demand due to Lower Economic Growth A Trade War Dragged Economic Growth Down B Lower Oil Demand Growth on Slowing Economy Cumulative Tariffs between the U.S. and China Global GDP Growth in 2019 (%) 3.5% U.S. tariffs on Chinese tariffs on 3.3% 3.2% Chinese imports U.S. impor
Slide 27: Petroleum Products
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
Slide 28: Refining Margins Boosted by IMO 2020, but Capped by Abundant Light Distillate Supply
Refinery -29- Refining Margins Boosted by IMO 2020, but Capped by Abundant Light Distillate Supply Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL) 7.7 8.2 6.7 7.2 7.1 7 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.1 5.9 6.4 5.0 5.2 4.2 3.2 3.5 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Y2016 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Y2017 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Y2018 Q1-19 Q2-1
Slide 29: Weaker Gasoline Cracks Q-o-Q due to Rising Supply from China
Refinery -30- 1 Weaker Gasoline Cracks Q-o-Q due to Rising Supply from China and Softer Seasonal Demand A Weaken Driving Demand in Winter B Climbing Stock to Above 5-year Average Level U.S. Gasoline Demand Global Gasoline Inventory MBD MBBL Q4’19 : 9.3 MBD (-0.3 MBD QoQ) Some refineries cut run rate
Slide 30: Stronger Middle Distillate Cracks Q-o-Q from Firm Seasonal Demand and IMO Impact
Refinery -31- Stronger Middle Distillate Cracks Q-o-Q from Firm Seasonal 2 Demand and IMO Impact A Surging Seasonal Demand with IMO Impact B Positive Sentiment Ahead of IMO Sulfur Cap Global Middle Distillate Demand SING Gasoil 500 PPM vs Dubai Forward Price MBD $/BBL 40 Q4’18 : 38.0 MBD (+0.68 MBD
Slide 31: Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Addition
Refinery -32- 3 Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Addition Asia Pacific and Middle East Effective CDU Addition VS Additional Demand AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China Other AP Japan India Vietnam Teapot Thailand Net Addition Operating Rate [RHS] Refinery Country Start-up CDU (KBD) KBD Hengyi Brune
Slide 32: Thailand Oil Demand Growth
Domestic -33- Thailand Oil Demand Growth Thailand Oil Demand Growth (B) (B) (B) 1H2019(B) YoY Y2016 Y2017 Y2018 VS 1H2018 Reasons Mogas (A) +10.1% +3.4% +3.3% +3.9% Low gasoline price Jet/Kero +7.0% +4.1% +5.4% 0.0% Decreased number of tourists Diesel (E) +3.4% +2.7% +1.5% +0.3% Slower Thailand’s Ex
Slide 33: Aromatics
AROMATICS
Slide 34: Stable-to-Soft Aromatics Market due to High Capacity Addition in Q4
Aromatics -35- Stable-to-Soft Aromatics Market due to High Capacity Addition in Q4 amid New Downstream Start-Up Aromatics Market PX CFR Taiwan-ULG95 ($/TON) BZ FOB Korea-ULG95 ($/TON) 529 508 447 387 343 313 304 245 273 258 260 276 268 274 225 231 216 195 212 126 127 141 81 46 18 Y2017 Y2018 Q3TD-19
Slide 35: Soft PX Market due to New Capacity Concerns amid a New PTA Plant
Aromatics -36- 1 Soft PX Market due to New Capacity Concerns amid a New PTA Plant A Higher Capacity Addition to Pressure in Q4-19 B New PTA Plant in Q4-19 to Support PX Consumption AP/ME Effective PX Capacity Addition AP/ME Effective PTA Capacity Addition Mil TON Heng Li 2 2.25MTA (Jun) Mil TON Zhej
Slide 36: Stable BZ Market due to Concerns of New Capacity amid a New SM Plant
Aromatics -37- 2 Stable BZ Market due to Concerns of New Capacity amid a New SM Plant A Higher Capacity Addition in Q4-19 B Lower Stock in China Towards Seasonal Demand AP/ME Effective BZ Capacity Addition KTON BZ Stock in East China Mil TON Heng Li 2 RAPID 250 221 0.65MTA (Jun) 0.24MTA 2 Hainan 200
Slide 37: Base Oil & Bitumen
BASE OIL & BITUMEN
Slide 38: Stable Base Oil Market on High Supply in Asia
Base Oil & Bitumen -39- Stable Base Oil Market on High Supply in Asia 500SN – HSFO ($/TON) 1 AP Base Oil Effective Capacity Addition 556 528 512 482 451 458 498 417 376 447 Mil TON Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Net Capacity 330 287 284 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.0 1.5 Y2017 Y2018 Q3TD-19* Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18
Slide 39: Stable Bitumen Market on Firmer Demand
Base Oil & Bitumen -40- Stable Bitumen Market on Firmer Demand Bitumen-HSFO ($/TON) 1 Better Demand after Rainy Season KTON/month Import Bitumen Volume -13 -4 -9 250 -19 -38 -29 -45 -31 -41 -40 200 -56 -67 150 100 Y2017 Q4-17 Q3-18 Q3TD-19* Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 50 0 Q1-19
Slide 40: Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
Slide 41: Stable-to-firm LAB Market After Rainy Season
LAB -42- Stable-to-firm LAB Market After Rainy Season and Supported by Still High Regional LAB Maintenance/Closure LAB Market KTON India LAB Import Volume LAB Spread* ($/TON) 70 60 2018 50 2019 635 627 619 606 603 616 574 615 626 649 40 543 539 534 522 550 529 566562 30 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 KTA AP/ME Effecti
Slide 42: Conclusion
CONCLUSION
Slide 43: Q4-2019 Market Outlook Conclusion
Conclusion -44- Q4-2019 Market Outlook Conclusion (vs. Q3-2019) Crude Oil Softer Oil Price due to Soft Global Oil Demand on Weak Economic Growth Higher Refining Margins Supported by Increasing Refinery Middle Distillate Demand in Preparation for IMO 2020 Stable-to-Soft Aromatics Market due to High C
Slide 44: Thank You
-45- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Slide 45: Appendix
-46- APPENDIX • Strategic Investment Plan • 2018 Dividend Payment • Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance • CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME • World GRM / Inventories • Thailand petroleum demand by products
Slide 46: Strategic Investment Plan Approved by Board of Directors
-UseonlyforKMSession- -47- Strategic Investment Plan Approved by Board of Directors CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Planned capital investment Project Total 2019 - 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 50 17 2 Infrastructure Improvement - Jetty 7&8 / Improve
Slide 47: 2018 Dividend Payment
Financial -48- 2018 Dividend Payment Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan Unit : THB/Share EPSR 2H dividend 1H dividend Year Dividend 12.18 10.40 9.19 9.40 8.66 7.82 7.28 5.91 6.04 5.97 4.57 4.97 4.39 2.75 3
Slide 48: Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance
Crude -49- Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Domestic demand for Reference Price TOP configuration* Crude output petroleum products** Thai Oil is able to diversify its type of crude intake and product outputs to maximize demand and margin %
Slide 49: Asia Pacific and Middle East Refinery Addition
Refinery -50- Asia Pacific and Middle East Refinery Addition Start-up Nameplate Country Company AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East period) (KBD) China Other AP Q2-19 China 400 Hengli Petrochemical Dalian Japan India Vietnam Teapot South Korea 37 Hyundai Lotte - Seosan Thailand Net Addition Hengyi Pet
Slide 50: Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin
World GRM -51- Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin SINGAPORE GRM EU - US Margins $/BBL $/BBL 14 40 12 10 30 8 6 20 4 2 0 10 -2 -4 0 -6 -8 -10 Apr-17 Jul-17 Apr-18 Jul-18 Apr-19 Jul-19 Jan-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-17 Jul-17 Apr-18 Jul-18 Apr-19 Jul-19 Jan-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 SING CRACK
Slide 51: Global Crude Oil Inventories
Inventories -52- Global Crude Oil Inventories U.S. Crude Stocks (excl. SPR) Crude Oil, Cushing, Oklahoma MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : EIA 600 80 550 70 500 60 50 450 40 400 30 350 20 300 10 250 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18
Slide 52: Global Gasoline Inventories
Inventories -53- Global Gasoline Inventories U.S. Gasoline Stocks Singapore Gasoline Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 280 20 260 240 10 220 200 180 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18 5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18
Slide 53: Global Middle Distillate Inventories
Inventories -54- Global Middle Distillate Inventories U.S. Diesel Stocks Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 180 20 160 140 10 120 100 80 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18 5yr-range 2019
Slide 54: Global Fuel Oil Inventories
Inventories -55- Global Fuel Oil Inventories U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Stocks Singapore Residual Fuel Oil Stocks MBBL MBBL Source : EIA Source : IE Singapore 50 40 30 40 20 30 10 20 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18 5yr-range 2019 20
Slide 55: China's Refined Product Exports
China Export -56- China’s Refined Product Exports KBD China’s Gasoline Exports KBD China’s Gasoil Exports Source : China Custom Source : China Custom 500 700 600 400 500 300 400 200 300 200 100 100 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 20
Slide 56: Domestic LPG Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -57- Domestic LPG Demand Thailand LPG Demand LPG Demand Highlight KT/Day 2019 2016 2017 2018 • In 1H2019, LPG demand expanded 0.76% YoY 20 on the support of 11.4% YoY higher demand from 18.8 petrochemical sector, due to higher substitute 18.1 18.1 18 17.5 17.7 f
Slide 57: Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -58- Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand GASOLINE/Gasohol Demand Highlight MML/Day 2019 2016 2017 2018 • In 1H2019, Gasoline demand rose by 3.8% YoY 34 to an average 32.1 ML/day. Besides the retail 32.64 32.85 32.17 32.29 31.55 pric
Slide 58: Domestic Jet Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -59- Domestic Jet Demand Thailand JET Demand JET Demand Highlight MML/Day 2019 2016 2017 2018 • In 1H2019, Jet consumption dropped slightly 22 by 0.02% YoY as tourism sector faced a slowdown in growth following decreased number of Chinese 20 tourist at 4.3% YoY
Slide 59: Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -60- Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand Thailand Gasoil Demand Diesel Demand Highlight MML/Day 2019 2016 2017 2018 • In 1H2019, Diesel demand slightly increased by 72 0.3% YoY as a result of decreased agricultural and 70 manufacturing production activities leading t
Slide 60: Domestic Fuel Oil Demand
Thailand petroleum demand by products -61- Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Thailand Fuel Oil Demand Fuel Oil Demand Highlight MML/Day 2019 2016 2017 2018 • In 1H2019, Fuel Oil consumption fell by 3.4% 8 YoY, as a result of 10.2% YoY decrease in demand for industrial sector. While, the demand for bunker 6 s
Slide 61: Thank You
-62- Thank You Any queries, please contact: at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961 Fax: 662-797-2976
Thai Oil Public Company — Q2 2019 Earnings Presentation on 6ix