10X S&P 500 ETF Units ZAR · JSE:CSP500
10X S&P 500 ETF Units ZAR — 10X Investments — Corporate Update (August 2025)
35 slides from 10X S&P 500 ETF Units ZAR's corporate update, August 2025
Slide 1: Multi-asset webinar Midyear 2025
Investments Multi-asset webinar Midyear 2025
Slide 2: Volatile first half of 2025 for equities
Volatile first half of 2025 for equities S&P 500 down 19% then rebounds 25% S&P 500 31 Dec 2024 – 30 June 2025 6,300 DeepSeek 6,100 5,900 Tariffs 5,700 5,500 5,300 5,100 +25% -19% 4,900 4,700 4,500 Source: 10X Investments, Bloomberg
Slide 3: Roundtrip for US equity valuations
Roundtrip for US equity valuations S&P 500 valuations unchanged after first 6 months of 2025 S&P 500 PE Ratio (LTM) 31 Dec 2024 – 30 June 2025 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 Source: 10X Investments, Bloomberg
Slide 4: DM bond yields continue to rise
DM bond yields continue to rise As debt sustainability comes into question Developed market government bond yields continue to rise US, German and Japanese 30-year government bond yields 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 Source: 10X Investments, Bloomberg Japan 30Y German 30Y US 30Y
Slide 5: Elevated real rates driving yields
Elevated real rates driving yields Market pricing of breakeven inflation remain contained Real rates moving higher US 30-year real rate and breakeven 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sept-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 US 30Y breakeven US 30Y real yield Li
Slide 6: Very weak US Dollar
0% 5% 15% 20% 25% 10% -20% -15% -10% -5% 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Source: 10X Investments, Bloomberg 1974 1975 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 DXY H1 performance 1969 - 2025 1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1991 1992 Down 11% over the first 6 months of 2025 1993 1994 1995 Very weak US Dollar 1996 19
Slide 7: Driving Rest of World outperformance vs US
Driving Rest of World outperformance vs US SA leading whilst US tech lagging Rest of World Strong equity returns outside of the US Equity index returns in Rand 31 Dec 2024 – 30 June 2025 120 115 115 110 110 108 105 100 99 95 96 90 85 80 75 S&P 500 in ZAR MSCI World ex-US in ZAR MSCI EM in ZAR FTSE J
Slide 8: Divergent commodity prices
Divergent commodity prices Precious metals up, Oil down Export prices up, import prices down Commodity prices in ZAR 30 June 2024 to 30 June 2025, rebased to 100 160 150 140 142 138 130 120 110 100 90 80 75 70 60 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sept-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 So
Slide 9: Gold and Platinum driving SA Equity
Gold and Platinum driving SA Equity Much higher weighting than global markets Resources driving SA equity JSE sector performance YTD to 30 June 2025, rebased to 100 160 150 147 140 130 120 117 110 106 100 90 80 Source: 10X Investments, Bloomberg Fini Indi Resi
Slide 10: Lower oil driving CPI and bond yields lower
Lower oil driving CPI and bond yields lower Low Inflation below 3% Driving bond yields down by 250bps SA CPI YoY Sept 2021 – May 2025 SA 10-year nominal and real yields Sept 2021 – June 2025 13.0 9 12.5 8 12.0 7 11.5 6 11.0 5 10.5 4 10.0 3 9.5 2 9.0 1 8.5 0 8.0 May-22 May-23 May-24 May-25 Nov-23 Jul
Slide 11: But SA real rates remain unchanged
But SA real rates remain unchanged Real yields create a high hurdle for competing asset classes in the portfolio SA real rates still at decade highs SA breakeven at lowest levels in more than a decade SA 10-year real yield 2012 - 2025 SA 10-year breakeven 2012 - 2025 14.0 8.0 12.0 7.5 7.0 10.0 6.5 8
Slide 12: And SA equity risk premium compresses
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Jan-03 Jun-03 Nov-03 Apr-04 Sept-04 Feb-05 Source: 10X Investments, Bloomberg Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sept-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Compressed SA Equity Risk Premium Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 FTSE-JSE All Sha
Slide 13: Risk assets rallied despite Tariff policy
Risk assets rallied despite Tariff policy Growth assets have had a strong start to the year Growth assets drive markets in H1 2025 Asset Class performance Rand 30 June 2024 – 30 June 2025 30% Growth Defensive 25.2% 25% 23.9% 20% 18.4% 16.7% 15% 13.2% 12.2% 10% 8.3% 8.1% 6.6% 7.4% 5.3% 6.0% 5% 3.8% 2
Slide 14: Portfolio performance and positioning
Portfolio performance and positioning
Slide 15: Portfolio positioning at the start of 2025
Portfolio positioning at the start of 2025 10X Your Future 31 Dec 2024 Benchmark Portfolio Relative SA Equity 35% 37% 2% • Defensively positioned: SA Bonds 10% 8% -2% SA ILB's 5% 12% 7% SA Cash 5% 7% 2% • Equities expensive compared to DM Equity 31% 18% -13% EM Equity 4% 8% 4% bonds around the world
Slide 16: Portfolio performance
Portfolio performance Strong performance YTD despite defensive positioning Portfolio returns to 30 June 2025 16% 15.2% 13.7% 13.8% 14% 13.4% 13.0% 11.9% 12% 11.2% 10% 9.4% 8.5% 8% 7.6% 7.6% 7.1% 6% 4% 1.8% 2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0% -2% -1.5% -4% YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 Year 10X Your Futu
Slide 17: Asset class return expectations
Asset class return expectations SA Bonds & US Equities represent largest disconnects SA Bonds attractive, US Equities Expensive 5-10 year expected real returns in Rands as at 30 June 2025 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.8% 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 4.2% 4.0% 3.6% 3.0% 2.8% 2.3% 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -0.9% -2.0%
Slide 18: What has really driven US exceptionalism?
What has really driven US exceptionalism?
Slide 19: One choice defines a decade
One choice defines a decade Market leadership cycles play out over many years US markets have outperformed over the last 15 years MSCI USA vs MSCI ACWI ex-US, Dec 1969 – Mar 2025 2.5 US +7.7% pa for 15 years 2.0 1.5 RoW +7.1% pa RoW +8.3% pa for 8 years US +11.1% pa for 18 years for 13 years 1.0 0.5
Slide 20: US exceptionalism
US exceptionalism Since 2010, the US has outperformed the rest of the world by 7.7% p.a. in USD US markets have outperformed over the last 15 years MSCI USA vs MSCI ACWI ex-US, Dec 2010 – Mar 2025 700 600 616 500 +7.7% p.a. 400 300 200 209 100 - Mar-16 Mar-11 Jun-17 Sept-18 Jan-12 Jun-12 Feb-14 Jul-
Slide 21: Was partly driven by a strong dollar
Was partly driven by a strong dollar Hedge out the strong dollar and 7.7% drops to 5.3% US markets have outperformed over the last 15 years MSCI USA vs MSCI ACWI ex-US vs MSCI ACWI ex-US FX hedged, Dec 2010 – Mar 2025 700 600 616 500 +5.3% p.a. 400 300 297 Dollar tailwind +2.4% p.a. 200 209 100 - Ma
Slide 22: Valuations and FX have driven US outperformance
Valuations and FX have driven US outperformance 89% of the US outperformance has come from more expensive valuations and a stronger USD 7.7% 0.9% 11% EPS & DY Valuation 4.4% 57% US Dollar Relative Net Total Return 2.4% 32% US vs MSCI ACWI ex-US Source: 10X Investments, Bloomberg, Total Returns Jan 2
Slide 23: Whisper 1 – Valuation gap
Whisper 1 – Valuation gap US equities are relatively more expensive that the rest of the world MSCI USA vs MSCI ACWI ex-US CAPE Ratio Dec 1998 – May 2025 40 35 34 30 25 20 21 15 10 Dec-98 Dec-14 Aug-99 Dec-00 Apr-06 Aug-01 Dec-02 Aug-03 Dec-04 Aug-05 Dec-06 Aug-07 Dec-08 Aug-09 Dec-10 Apr-22 Aug-11
Slide 24: Whisper 2 – Currency gap
70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 120 115 Jan-67 Jun-68 Nov-69 Apr-71 Sept-72 Peak Feb-74 Source: 10X Investments, Bloomberg Jul-75 -33% Dec-76 May-78 Oct-79 US REER Jan 1967 – May 2025 Mar-81 Trough Aug-82 Jan-84 The dollar is currently very strong Jun-85 Nov-86 Apr-88 Peak Sept-89 Feb-91 -36% Jul-92 D
Slide 25: What happens if the cycle turns…
What happens If the cycle turns… 10-year relative returns if the key drivers of US outperformance mean revert CAPE Valuations in 10 years US CAPE unchanged 34 US CAPE mean reverts to 24 Change in REER in USD US maintains +0.9% Equity valuation drag Unchanged fundamental edge -2.5% 10 years USD -30%
Slide 26: Shout 1 – AI disruption
Shout 1 – AI disruption Margins that justified premium multiples are already compressing Magnificent 7 has underperformed the S&P 500 by 3% YTD Magnificent 7 vs S&P 500 31 Dec 2024 – 30 June 2025 110 Emergence of DeepSeek triggered underperformance on Mag-7 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 S&P 500 Mag-7 So
Slide 27: $500bn capex spend has seen Tech become capital heavy
$500bn capex spend has seen Tech become capital heavy Capex/Sales – Sector comparison Capex/Sales – Sector comparison Hyperscalers are Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta and Microsoft Hyperscalers are Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta and Microsoft 350 Utilities ‘Hyperscalers’ 300 Telecoms 250 Technology Bas
Slide 28: Shout 2 – Trade war escalation
Shout 2 – Trade war escalation Trade policy appears set on minimising trade deficit 8 US Capital account + Financial account balance (% of GDP) 6 Net inflows into U.S. 4 assets Lower current account = 2 Lower foreign bid for US 0 assets -2 2 0 Isolationist policies -2 drive incremental -4 dollar awa
Slide 29: Shout 3 - Fiscal cliff
Shout 3 - Fiscal cliff The U.S fiscal outlook: from bad to worse US fiscal stimulus has underpinned robust US U.S.: Federal Government* (% of GDP): Budget balance economic performance 0 -5 U.S Deficit is the largest within the G7 -10 Government Budget Balance* (% of GDP) 0 Public Debt 80 -2 60 40 -4
Slide 30: Higher rates are a bigger problem for US
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sept-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Source: 10X Investments, Bloomberg Jun-15 Sept-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sept-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sept-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Excess CAPE Yield 31 Dec 2013 – 30 June 2025 Jun-18 US Sept-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 UK US equities are ex
Slide 31: Defensively positioned into H2 2025
Defensively positioned into H2 2025 Portfolio remains defensively positioned 10X Your Future - 30 June 2025 Benchmark Portfolio Relative • Overweight defensive assets SA Equity 35% 37% +2% • Defensive assets attractive to fair value SA Bonds 10% 6% -4% • Growth assets fair value to expensive SA ILB'
Slide 32: 10X Multi-Asset Resources
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Slide 33: Thank you Q&A?
Thank you Q&A? Cape Town Office Call: +27 (0) 21 412 1010 The Terraces,14th Floor, Office 01401 Email: invest@10x.co.za 34 Bree Street, Cape Town, 8001 Visit: www.10x.co.za
Slide 34: Important Information
Important Information 10X Fund Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd (the “Manager” or “10X FM”), Registration number 2006/006498/07, is a company incorporated in South Africa registered as a manager of collective investments schemes in securities in terms of Section 42 of the Collective Investments Schemes Contr
Slide 35: Important Information
Important Information CIS portfolios are generally medium to long-term investments. The value of participatory interests or the investment may go down as well as up. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Actual investment performance of the portfolios and the investor wi