Asml Holding Nv · EURONEXT:ASML
Asml Holding Nv — UBS Global Technology and Services Conference 2009
26 slides from Asml Holding Nv's conference presentation, Jun 10, 2009
Slide 1: UBS Global Technology and Services Conference
UBS Global Technology and Services Conference New York City Craig DeYoung VP, Investor Relations & Corporate Communications June 9, 2009
Slide 2: Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor "Safe Harbor" Statement under the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: the matters discussed in this document may include forward-looking statements, including statements made about our outlook, realization of backlog, IC unit demand, financial results, average sales pric
Slide 3: The Markets
The Markets DRAM 300mm litho capacity utilization recovering while 200mm capacity is being built off DRAM 1Gb prices continue to rise DRAM manufacturers with 55nm process are making money DRAM manufacturer without 55nm process resume process "shrink" plans Some DRAM players preparing 45nm processes
Slide 4: DRAM revenues appear to bottom out in March
DRAM revenues appear to bottom out in March YoY DRAM unit growth still well below average of analysts Source: WSTS, ASML Last data point: March 2009 Analyst Average
Slide 5: DRAM utilization recovering while 200mm capacity is built off
DRAM 300 mm utilization recovering while 200mm capacity is built off
Slide 6: DRAM prices continue to increase during April
Source: DRAM Exchange (05/2009) DRAM 1 Gb prices continue to increase during April, due to persistent supply cut-backs, 5x nm manufacturers are cash positive 300 mm cash-costs for 5x nm 1 Gb DRAM between 0.8 & 0.9 USD 300 mm cash-costs for 7x nm 1 Gb DRAM between 1.4 & 1.6 USD 300 mm cash-costs for
Slide 7: Q1/09 DRAM operating margins
Q1/09 DRAM operating margins: Production cut-backs resulted in negative op. margins for all players, despite rising ASPs Source: DRAMeXchange (2/09), ASML Most advanced prod. node in Q1/09: 5x nm 5x nm 6x nm 6x nm 7x nm 7x nm
Slide 8: 3mma NAND sales rising as normal seasonal behavior
3mma NAND sales is rising as normal seasonal behavior 1Q09 units growth lower than annual forecast Analyst Average Source: WSTS, ASML Last data point: March 2009
Slide 9: NAND utilization, moving back to normal levels
NAND utilization, moving back to normal levels * One major manufacturer's dry tool utilization (?30% idle) is not capture in this graph
Slide 10: NAND MLC ASPs stabilized above cash-costs
Source: DRAM Exchange (05/2009) 300 mm cash-costs for 4x nm 16 Gb MLC NAND between 1,9 and 2,4 USD NAND MLC 16 Gb mainstream ASPs stabilized above 4x and 5x nm cash-costs 300 mm cash-costs for 5x nm 16 Gb MLC NAND between 2.5 and 3,1 USD
Slide 11: Operating Margins of main NAND Manufacturers
Operating Margins of main NAND Manufacturers (Q1/06 - Q1/09) - -100% - -80% - -60% - -40% - -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 Operating Margin [% of Sales] Q1/09 NAND operating margins: Margins driven by raising ASPs. Most advanced volume node in Q1
Slide 12: Logic sales appear to have reached a bottom in March 2009
Logic sales appear to have reached a bottom in March 2009 Analyst Average Source: WSTS, ASML Last data point: March 2009
Slide 13: Foundry utilizations are recovering fast
Foundry utilizations are recovering fast - but well below trigger point for capacity buys
Slide 14: Market Opportunity
Market Opportunity
Slide 15: Technology developments continue
* Note: Process development 1.5 ~ 2 years in advance of manufacturing Year of production start* 1/1/02 1/1/03 1/1/04 1/1/05 1/1/06 1/1/07 1/1/08 1/1/09 1/1/11 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/14 1/1/15 1/1/10 Resolution/half pitch, "Shrink" [nm] 20 30 40 50 60 80 200 100 Logic Logic / SRAM 6 Transistor SRAM Cell k
Slide 16: Lithography total market growth opportunity - simulation
Source: ASML Lithography total market growth opportunity - simulation Historical trends projected Factual until 2008 + simulation for 2009 IC trend-based simulation 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 WW Litho Demand Simulation
Slide 17: Bottom-up scenario: Four engines of growth
Bottom-up scenario: Four engines of growth Even when assuming slow chip unit growth of 4% (due to Moore's Law slowdown and slower electronics consumption in the West) More DRAM in expanding consumer electronics. Additional €1.2B Litho revenue over 5 years. NAND/DRAM penetration rises to 10% of hard
Slide 18: Bottoms-up scenario: significant litho demand indicated
Source: ASML Bottoms-up scenario: significant litho demand indicated Conservative scenario (4% unit growth) + emerging growth markets Factual until 2008 + simulation for 2009 IC trend-based simulation 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Slide 19: ASML confirms its strategy
ASML confirms its strategy The lithography market offers significant growth potential; the company target of EUR 5 billion in annual revenues is still achievable, timing depending on macro economic circumstances ASML's key success factor is unmatched R&D innovation which will remain unaffected in th
Slide 20: ASML Product Strategy Enabling the future
ASML Product Strategy Enabling the future
Slide 21: Committed to R&D
Committed to R&D New product introduction on track ASML is using its financial strength to uniquely continue aggressive R&D spending in strategic development programs to ensure timely introduction of next node production solutions Proved EUV imaging with the first full field 28 nm dense lines Introd
Slide 22: TWINSCAN NXT - improved overlay and productivity
TWINSCAN NXT - improved overlay and productivity Suitable for double patterning 32 nm and beyond x, y : 1.6nm, 1.7nm overlay x, y : 1.9nm, 1.8nm overlay Platform capability >200 wafers per hour Excellent overlay shown during SPIE
Slide 23: EUV pre-production systems ready in 2010
EUV pre-production systems ready in 2010 First full field 28 nm dense lines imaged
Slide 24: Summary
Summary Nt ‘seas ASML ly
Slide 25: Summary
Summary Litho system utilization at leading edge improving across all sectors Shrink drivers remain in all sectors (Device cost and functionality improvements) Technology purchases resume to support litho process node transitions in all sectors ASML continues to manage the company for cash generatio
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