Elia Group Sa/nv · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group Sa/nv — Investor Presentation (March 2024)
88 slides from Elia Group Sa/nv's investor presentation, Mar 1, 2024
Slide 1: The Horizontal Electricity System Think Tank
THE HORIZONTAL ELECTRICITY SYSTEM THINK TANK 1st March 2024
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 1. Flux50/Vito – Energyville Paths2050 & Sensitivities 2. Elia – System Blueprint Study 3. Elia – How to realize Belgian and European offshore ambitions 4. Florence School of Regulation – Energy policy ideas for the next European Commission
Slide 3: Flux50/Vito: Energyville Paths2050 & Sensitivities
Flux50/Vito Energyville Paths2050 & Sensitivities
Slide 4: How can Belgium become carbon neutral between now and 2050?
How can Belgium become carbon neutral between now and 2050? PATHS2050 – The Power of Perspective Wouter Nijs
Slide 5: Energy strategies and markets
Energy strategies and markets
Slide 6: Our expertise
Our expertise Techno-economic model development Pathways to net-zero 2050 Industrial transformation
Slide 7: Topics typically addressed
Topics typically addressed • Speed of electrification. Will industry consume too much electricity ? • Role of clean gas and the gas grid. Hydrogen (or derived) pipelines ? At what cost ? • Interconnections and TYNDP 2024 • Industries • Role of flexibility in industry • Does industry follow cheap ene
Slide 8: Boosting interconnections
Boosting interconnections Increased electricity imports: Germany (x 6), Poland (x 4), Belgium (x 2.5), Romania (x 1.8), and the Netherlands (x 1.7), compared to highest historical annual import • The Netherlands, Poland, and Romania: combined focus on import and increased renewables • Belgium and Ge
Slide 9: EU Climate target 2040
EU Climate target 2040 Sources for all data: PRIMES
Slide 10: Climate goal for 2040 blog article
energyville.be/blogs/climate-goal-for-2040-a-new-milestone-for-the-eu/ Klimaatdoelstelling voor 2040: een nieuw baken voor de EU Nieuws 07-02-2024 Op 6 februari 2024 publiceerde de Europese Commissie (EC) een gedetailleerde impactbeoordeling over mogelijke routes om het afgesproken doel te bereiken
Slide 11: Natural gas: down 75-80% by 2040
Natural gas: down 75-80% by 2040
Slide 12: Average annual energy system investment needs, excluding transport
Average annual energy system investment needs, excluding transport
Slide 13: Investment profiles, annual averages, EU, S3
Investment profiles, annual averages, EU, S3
Slide 14: The Power of Perspective
The Power of Perspective https://perspective2050.energyville.be
Slide 15: Energy System Analysis and Long-term Energy Modelling - TIMES
Energy System Analysis and Long–term Energy Modelling - TIMES • TIMES is a Model Generator for Energy Technology Systems Analysis • Developed by the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) • Coordinated by the IEA (International Energy Agency, Paris), which is part of the OECD • Members
Slide 16: The EnergyVille TIMES Be model
The EnergyVille TIMES Be model • Most detailed, full system optimization model of the Belgian energy system, to date • Cross-vector: covering energy use (fossil fuels, renewables, clean molecules and electricity), feedstock • Cross-sector: covering all supply (refineries, power sector) and end-use d
Slide 17: What makes TIMES TIMES?
What makes TIMES TIMES? Climate Module User Policies Constraints Balancing Macro General Stochastic
Slide 18: TIMES basics on discounting
TIMES basics on discounting
Slide 19: Scenario assumptions overview
Offshore North Sea 2050: ~212 GW, AF 60% EU countries ambitions 2030, 2050 … 16 GW Direct access for Belgium Offshore Belgium >2030 max.: 8 GW (Source: Fed Gov.) Electricity import ~6.5 GW 13 GW by 2040 Industry (Source: ENTSO-E) - Output levels constant to 2050 - Refineries cf. EU decrease with 4
Slide 20: The scenarios to net-zero 2050
The 3 scenarios to net-zero 2050 Electrification Central Clean Molecules + + • Direct access to Industrial product demand stable additional 16 GW Population growth buildings, transport • Lower cost range of of offshore wind Technical renewable potential: 104 GW rooftop PV, 20 GW onshore, 8 GW o
Slide 21: Fit-for-55 by 2030?
Fit-for-55 by 2030 ? •Renovation & Evaluation limited to CO2 emissions insulation •1,5 M heat pumps • No policy projection or prognosis Buildings • Belgian CO2 emissions 1990: 120 Mton CO2 emissions excluding net CO2 from LULUCF •Smart charging • Central scenario 2030: 52 Mton Transport infrastructu
Slide 22: Technology options interact
Technology options interact Clean Hydrogen CCS electrons E-fuel (CxHy Bio NH3)
Slide 23: Residential & commercial - final energy demand
Residential & commercial – final energy demand Renovation & electrification
Slide 24: Transport - final energy demand
Transport – final energy demand Electrification
Slide 25: Industry - final energy use
Industry – final energy use Electrification & limited use of clean molecules
Slide 26: Industry - CO2 emissions
Industry – CO2 emissions Carbon capture & storage 18210 1374 8653 8435 1271 1259 • Clean Molecules, limited storage access (5 Mton/y) • Delayed reduction path • Carbon capture & utilisation in 2050
Slide 27: Power sector - Capacity
Power sector - Capacity By 2030, Solar PV capacity needs to increase By 2030, wind onshore and offshore up to >20 GW inall scenarios, to be on track to net-zero 2050. » 4 2 as no regret in all scenarios By 2050 eFuel turbines grow toa capacity of 8 GW in the Central scenario to provide peak power. B
Slide 28: Power sector - Generation
Power sector - Generation Power - Generation (TWhe) demand flexibility a grows drastically: smart 100 charging, heat pump with buffers, battery storage, hydrogen electrolysers. 50 ee a 2020 2030 2050 Fossil Nuclear Biomass Wind Offshore Wind Onshore Solar PV Hydrogen Hydro Transmission
Slide 29: Average electricity generation cost
Average electricity generation cost • Central scenario leads to average generation costs of 94 €/MWh • Offshore wind + SMR leads to lowest generation cost of 56 €/MWh 8,1 GW 18,5 GW offshore offshore 23,4 GW offshore 6 GW SMR
Slide 30: Annual additional costs compared to limited climate ambition
Annual additional costs compared to a scenario with limited climate ambition
Slide 31: Annual costs per period
Annual costs per period Comparison with scenario without climate ambition 21.244 19.275 11.660
Slide 32: More sensitivity scenarios
More sensitivity scenarios What if … • Offshore wind: additional direct access is available - >16 – 40 GW • PV efficiency increases to 35% (tandem cells) = cost/kWpeak decreases by 1/3th • SMR: in-/decreasing investment costs • Industry flex: some industry processes with high electricity demand can
Slide 33: Annual costs per period
Annual costs per period 2030 20 2040 2050 | Fs eS oO ry oO Bb Sob & = nN _ BoE \) = B Central Clean molecules Central + SMR Electr. PV 75% push Central +16 GW Electr. Carbon storage limit Electr. SMR Higher Cost Electrification Max offshore Electr. Industry flexibility Electr. SMR Lower Cost Electr.
Slide 34: It is important to have clean electrons timely
It is important to have clean electrons timely and targeting 2040 already now is crucial.
Slide 35: PATHS2050 Coalition
PATHS2050 Coalition • Scenario/storyline development • Technology driven • Impact of (European or national) legislative packages on cost optimal investments • Societal cost optimization • … • Early access to modelling results • Annual updated Perspectives 2050 platform • From complex model simple
Slide 36: PATHS2050 Coalition - topics to be discussed
PATHS2050 Coalition – topics to be discussed • Energy infrastructure: we need a fundamental re-thinking of the role of energy infrastructure • Follow up project Trilate for long term modelling with Elia and Fluxys • Follow up project Cirec on the role of materials and circularity • Cross-border scen
Slide 37: Slide 37
Slide 38: Annual expenditures for private vehicles and transport-related energy per household
Annual expenditures for private vehicles and transport- related energy purchases per household
Slide 39: Investment profiles, per household per 10 years, Belgium
Investment profiles, per household per 10 years, Belgium (based on 3.5% of EU GDP, S3) Supply includes Power grid, Power plants & Other supply
Slide 40: Investment profiles, per household per 10 years, Belgium
Investment profiles, per household per 10 years, Belgium (based on 3.5% of EU GDP, S3) Same data, but part of the PV panels now allocated to the Residential sector. Supply remains high.
Slide 41: Investment needs 2030 - 2050
Investment needs 2030 - 2050 Energy crisis 2022 – earmarked/allocated funding • From universal energy subsidies • 646 billion € in EU27 from Sept 2021 to Jan 2023 • 9,4 billion € in Belgium - 1,9% of GDP • Earmarked to shield consumers from rising energy costs • To targeted measures for households a
Slide 42: België heeft een reductie in EU modellering onder 40%
België heeft een reductie in EU modellering onder 40% Fit For 55* Fit For 55* Fit For 55* REPowerEU Mton CO2-eq GDP Cost Optimal Cost Optimal Proxy** Corrected Region EU BE BE BE ETS -62% -26% -26% -32% Niet – ETS -40% -41% -47% -45% Totaal -50% -34% -38% -39% *Data tov 2005 (voor België zijn 1990 e
Slide 43: Total final energy demand Belgium
Total final energy demand Belgium
Slide 44: EnergyVille as partner on energy strategies
EnergyVille as partner on energy strategies Energy Independent Diverse client Beyond state- technologies advice and Future-proof base and of-the-art and grids technology- solutions collaborations models experts neutral A wide range of Allows partners (EC- embedding In-depth Through our BE-FL-cities,
Slide 45: Natural gas: volatile but now below 25 EUR/MWh
Natural gas: volatile but now below 25 EUR/MWh
Slide 46: EU ETS: focus on the longer term
EU ETS: focus on the longer term.
Slide 47: Trilateral collaboration
Trilateral collaboration At the heart of TRILATE is the belief that the industrial transformation does not stop at national borders. EnergyVille has established and will grow a collaboration platform with Dutch and German partners to contribute to a sustainable and economically viable energy and fee
Slide 48: Power sector - representative summer day 2050
Power sector – representative summer day 2050 Production + storage • Central • PV peak of 55 GW at noon • 18,8 GW battery storage • Electrification • PV peak of <25 GW at noon • 5,6 GW battery storage • Constant 13 GW wind • 6 GW SMR during evening • Clean Molecules • Comparable with Central but • 1
Slide 49: Power sector - representative summer day 2050
Power sector – representative summer day 2050 Demand sectors • Central, accommodate noon peak • Electrolysers: 13,2 GW (H2 production) • Smart EV charging, water heating • Electrification, more baseload • Electrolyser (8,2 GW) constant production • Clean Molecules • Electrolysers: 10,3 GW (H2 produc
Slide 50: Flexibility needs in the energy system
Flexibility needs in the energy system • Growing from 2040 onwards, by 2050 • Balance between Belgian production and import 2050 • Central: 18,8 GW • Central: 13,2 GW 23 TWh Belgian • Electrification: 5,6 GW production - 36 TWh import • Clean Molecules: 13,5 GW • Electrification: 8,2 GW 28 TWh B
Slide 51: Input data - Imports
Input data - Imports Neighboring countries export price curves (hourly) Power price [€/MWh] 0 400
Slide 52: Central scenario
Central scenario Electricity sector – production 2050 – 120 timeslices (10d/2h) Limited curtailment: 3 TWh GW
Slide 53: Central scenario
Central scenario Electricity sector – demand 2050 – 120 timeslices (10d/2h) GW
Slide 54: Central scenario
Central scenario Representative summer day 2030 2050 ‘Baseload’ demand Industry Export Transport Smart EV charging Hydrogen production Buildings Batt charging Battery capacity: from 11 GW in 350 €/ton 2050 18,5 GW in Net-zero 2050 16 TWh (dis)charging in 2050
Slide 55: Elia: System Blueprint Study
Elia System Blueprint Study
Slide 56: Electricity System BluePrint study
Electricity System BluePrint study Horizontal Electricity Think Tank 01/03/2024 Generated with AI (FireFly)
Slide 57: Short update on the BluePrint study
Short update on the BluePrint study Outcomes of the public consultation Modelling improvements (-> multi-energy modelling) Energy demand & supply scenarios for Belgium 57
Slide 58: Timeline
Timeline 2023 2024 September October November December January February March April May June 13/09 19/12 Think Think Think Think Tank #1 Tank #2 Tank #3 Tank #4 24/10 AM 13/11 AM 13/12 AM Publication Think Tank Q2 2024 WS #1 WS #2 WS #3 Modelling/ Costs Modelling/ scenarios scenarios Consultation on
Slide 59: Public consultation outcomes
Public consultation outcomes Main feedback received (non exhaustive) ► Many questions on the modelling of other vectors than electricity ► We will model all energy vectors (see next slide) ► Costs assumptions for certain technologies, WACC assumption ► Costs assumptions were updated and aligned with
Slide 60: We will model the whole European energy sector
We will model the whole European energy sector including feedstock and international aviation & shipping requirements e- • Hourly Electricity market model of Europe • Zonal model (higher resolution per country) • Investments in onshore/offshore grid, offshore windfarms, electrolysers, back up capaci
Slide 61: Scenario framework - Demand in Belgium
Scenario framework – Demand in Belgium The final demand will be pre-defined in the models but several scenarios/sensitivities will be used. 2021 2050 Final demand [TWh] Final Demand including electricity losses... ... but excluding: Coal • Feedstock and international aviation & Heat shipping; • Powe
Slide 62: Supply scenarios for Belgium assessed as sensitivities
Supply scenarios for Belgium will be assessed as sensitivities and compared between each other 1 Evolution of final energy demand 2 Multiple Supply and storage options Historical To be simulated 500 Renewables: Solar PV, Onshore & Offshore Wind Biomass illustrative shares 450 Flexibility & storage 4
Slide 63: Thank you.
Gra group Thank you. < gG3 5s _ttthoe
Slide 64: Elia: How to realize Belgian and European offshore ambitions
Elia How to realize Belgian and European offshore ambitions
Slide 65: Realising our Belgian and European offshore ambitions
Realising our Belgian and European offshore ambitions 1st March 2024 – Benjamin Genêt Elia Think Tank
Slide 66: The case for offshore and (hybrid) interconnectors
The case for offshore and (hybrid) interconnectors 66
Slide 67: Interconnectors and offshore are essential to net-zero
Interconnectors and offshore are essential contributors to our transition to net-zero Study published by Elia Group in November 2021 67
Slide 68: 68
68
Slide 69: Developing interconnections and accessing RES potential is key for competitiveness
Developing our interconnections and accessing RES potential is key for our competitiveness 69
Slide 70: The challenges
~@3ia group The challenges vl, 09 FER . —___)
Slide 71: Developing interconnectors was not easy
Developing interconnectors was not easy… • Lengthy and complex ad hoc negotiations … developing hybrid • Misaligned incentives interconnectors is even • Grid vs. wind more challenging! • Long RES vs. short RES countries • No contribution by non-hosting countries • Limited EU funding • Limited option
Slide 72: Areas of possible solutions
Areas of possible solutions 72
Slide 73: Improvements in two key areas should be explored
Improvements in two key areas should be explored 1. Joint optimised planning Practical solutions to 2. cost sharing and funding 73
Slide 74: Planning must be improved to identify the optimal projects
Planning must be improved with the spirit to identify the optimal projects – Offshore Network Development Plan is a great first edition! – …but improvements are possible on regulatory and modelling levels – Starting assumptions are preventing to identify the most optimal projects – Non-negotiable ra
Slide 75: Practical solutions for cost sharing and funding
Practical solutions for cost sharing and funding should be found A possible concept: setting up an offshore investment bank per Sea Basin, streamlining the funding and financing from different origins Transmission Grants (6) Grants, loans & Investment & return (8) guarantees (5) TSOs of the Sea Cong
Slide 76: Key design features and benefits of the offshore bank
Key design features and benefits of the offshore bank Regional setup per sea basin Not only EU funding, but also contributions from States Coalition of the willings, building on e.g. NSEC Facilitate involvement of third countries Providing a consistent approach for grid and generation 2
Slide 77: Both areas need to be tackled in a consistent way
Both areas need to be tackled in a consistent way Cost Planning sharing At sea basin level We need to plan together what we pay together! 77
Slide 78: Thank you.
Gra group Thank you. < gG3 5s _ttthoe
Slide 79: Florence School of Regulation
Florence School of Regulation Energy policy ideas for the next European Commission
Slide 80: Energy Policy ideas for the next European Commission
Energy Policy ideas for the next European Commission: from targets to investments Leonardo Meeus, llaria Conti, Lucila de Almeida, Jean-Michel Glachant, Leigh Hancher, Max Münchmeyer, Andris Piebalgs, Alberto Pototschnig 1
Slide 81: Introduction
Introduction • The next European Commission will need to work on energy security • By integrating our energy markets and infrastructure across borders, we increase our resilience against shocks, but we also increase our interdependencies. • We therefore need to avoid that Member States can voluntari
Slide 82: O1: Make Member States more accountable for investment potential
O1: Make Member States more accountable to live up to their national investment potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy Current approach • NECPs with national pledges Issues with the current approach • In 2019, the first versions of the NECPs fell short of reaching the EU targets for 20
Slide 83: O2: Promote multilateral cooperation among Member States
O2: Promote multilateral cooperation (and solidarity) among Member States for network infrastructure, resource adequacy and flexibility Current approach • TYNDPs, PCIs, ERAA, flexibility assessment, Risk Preparedness Regulation for electricity, and the Gas Security of Supply Regulation. Issues with
Slide 84: O3: Strengthen the management of our global dependencies
O3: Strengthen the management of our global dependencies Current approach • NZIA target to manufacture 40% clean tech needs in Europe by 2030 • CRM target by 2030 to ambition is to • restart mining (at least 10% of the annual EU’s CRM consumption is to be extracted locally) • increase processing (at
Slide 85: O4: Reinforce the EU institutional setup
O4: Reinforce the EU institutional setup Current approach • European Commission (supported by JRC, Scientific Board), ACER, ENTSOs (ENNOH), EU DSO Entity, European net zero platform, European Critical Raw Materials Board Risks/issues with the current approach Competent authorities for national imple
Slide 86: www.leonardomeeus.com
fa FLORENCE SCHOOL OF REGULATION ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE Reena EE) ELECTRICITY NETWORK REGULATION IN THE EU www.leonardomeeus.com
Slide 87: Think tank
Think tank Feedback & agenda 19th December 2023
Slide 88: Feedback & agenda
Feedback & agenda Agenda 10/06/2024: Dates 2024 – 13-16h: 1. TBD • 10/06/2024 • 23/09/2024 • 25/11/2024