Elia Group SA/NV · EURONEXT:ELI
Elia Group SA/NV — Corporate Update (May 2021)
46 slides from Elia Group SA/NV's corporate update, May 6, 2021
Slide 1: CRM Calibration 2026-27
CRM Calibration 2026-27 TF CRM -public consultation on scenario, data and sensitivities 06.05.2021 | Elia
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda 1. Planning 2. Public consultation – Royal Decree framework 3. Scenario & sensitivities – Context 4. Scenario dataset 5. Sensitivities 6. Other parameters to be consulted CRM Calibration 2026-27 2
Slide 3: Indicative planning - CRM scenario choice for the DY26-27 Y-4 auction
Indicative planning - CRM scenario choice for the DY26-27 Y-4 auction 2021 March Apr May June July Aug Sep TF 06.05.2021 29.06.2021 15/09 New date proposal Ministerial Decree regarding Reference scenario Process 1) reference scenario 2) intermediate 4 weeks 3 weeks 4 weeks values Establishment of sc
Slide 4: Public consultation – RD framework
Public consultation – RD framework
Slide 5: Context : Royal Decree framework
Context : Royal Decree framework Art. 5. § 1er. Le gestionnaire de réseau organise une ou plusieurs Art. 5. § 1. De netbeheerder organiseert een of meerdere openbare consultations publiques conformément à l’article 7undecies, § 3, alinéa raadpleging(en) met het oog op de opmaak van zijn verslag en z
Slide 6: Context : Royal Decree framework
Context : Royal Decree framework The first part of this presentation will introduce the data and assumptions associated with the scenario, as mentioned in article 3, §3 of the RD. The second part of this presentation will presents the proposed sensitivities, their source and the impact on the input
Slide 7: Public consultation includes reference scenario parameters for the delivery period
The public consultation includes the reference scenario parameters for the delivery period and the source of the scenario for the periods after the delivery period 2026 2030 2035 2040 Used for all CRM Used for technology revenues assessment over the lifetime calibration parameters 2026 is the delive
Slide 8: Scenario & Sensitivities – How are they constructed?
Scenario & Sensitivities – How are they constructed ?
Slide 9: Reference scenario for 2026 is based on the most recent European adequacy assessment
The reference scenario for 2026 is constructed based the most recent European adequacy assessment complemented with additional events to be selected by Belgian authorities after public consultation Art. 3. § 1er. Le gestionnaire de réseau effectue, en collaboration avec la Direction générale de l’En
Slide 10: Reference scenario for 2026 is based on the most recent European adequacy assessment
The reference scenario for 2026 is constructed based the most recent European adequacy assessment complemented with additional events to be selected by Belgian authorities after public consultation Following Article 3, §2-3 Following Article 3, §4 Scenario Additional sensitivities components to be i
Slide 11: Reference scenario for 2026 is based on the most recent European adequacy assessment
The reference scenario for 2026 is constructed based the most recent European adequacy assessment complemented with additional events to be selected by Belgian authorities after public consultation Following Article 3, §2-3 Following Article 3, §4 Following Article 3, §6-7 Scenario Additional sensit
Slide 12: What elements of the reference scenario will be submitted to public consultation?
What elements of the reference scenario will be submitted to public consultation ? Details for each scenario component will be provided in an Excel file complemented with an explanatory note • Generation and storage capacities per type (including a list of all CIPU thermal units) • Forced outage rat
Slide 13: Scenario dataset
lia Scenario dataset
Slide 14: Overview of generation and storage installed capacities
Scenario components Overview of generation and storage installed capacities Net generating and storage capacities CRM calibration 25-26 CRM calibration 26-27 10000 9000 8600 8000 8000 7000 6000 5630 5428 5000 3747 3978 4000 2953 3000 2253 2000 1244 1379 1000 1000 732 904 757 433 0 158 134 140 0 Nucl
Slide 15: Generation – Installed capacities
Scenario components Generation – Installed capacities – All existing units are considered (unless closure announcement known). – Aligned with the data consulted upon in the Adequacy and Flexibility study (2021) Overview of the updates CRM CRM Net Generating Capacities* (MW) calibration calibration C
Slide 16: Storage – Reservoir volumes & capacities
Scenario components Storage – Reservoir volumes & capacities – Pumped-storage is in line with the data consulted upon in the Adequacy and Flexibility study (2021) Pumped-storage Pumped-Storage facilities Reservoir Volume [MWh] Storage reservoir 5800 Storage reservoir derating (ancillary services) 50
Slide 17: Storage – Reservoir volumes & capacities
Scenario components Storage – Reservoir volumes & capacities – Batteries’ projections are in line with the data consulted upon in the Adequacy and Flexibility study (2021) Batteries Category Sub category Capacity and volume of storage in 2026 [MW] or [MWh] Total capacity [MW] 757 Large scale storage
Slide 18: Forced outage rate
Scenario components Forced outage rate – Forced outage rate have been determined for all thermal generation & storage technologies available in Belgium, such as done for other Elia adequacy studies. – It is based on historical data from the last 10 years (source : ENTSO-E Transparency platform, Elia
Slide 19: Demand-side response – Categories & Capacities
Scenario components Demand-side response – Categories & Capacities – Demand-side response shedding categories are based on the data consulted upon in the Adequacy and Flexibility study (Elia, 2021) – Demand-side response shifting values are based on the Energy Pact. Overview of the updates with CRM
Slide 20: Demand-side response – Categories & Capacities
Scenario components Demand-side response – Categories & Capacities – Demand-side response values are based on the Energy Pact for 2030. – Demand-side response shedding categories are based on the data consulted upon in the Adequacy and Flexibility study (Elia, 2021) Total volume Categories [MW] Max
Slide 21: Balancing capacity - Purpose
Scenario components Balancing capacity - Purpose – There are 2 purposes for the evaluation of balancing reserves volume : 1) A volume will be taken into account for the energy market model in line with national and European studies 2) A volume will be taken into account for the determination of the
Slide 22: Demand curve - Reminder
Scenario components Demand curve - Reminder Determination of the volume parameters – Article 11 of the Royal Decree Balancing Average load in simulated scarcity Balancing hours from an adequate scenario capacity capacity need need Y-4 auction Average load in simulated scarcity hours from an adequate
Slide 23: Balancing capacity - Purpose
Scenario components Balancing capacity - Purpose Determination of the volume parameters – Article 11 of the Royal Decree Balancing Average load in simulated scarcity hours from an adequate scenario capacity need Y-4 auction The model will allow to determine 3 parameters of the Y-4 auction of deliver
Slide 24: Balancing capacity
Scenario components Balancing capacity – Balancing reserves volume should be considered neither as an expert estimation. Indeed, the reserves are daily dimensioned depending on system conditions and market performance. Volume [MW] Total FCR 75 Total FRR 1104 Total reserve capacity 1179 – Total balan
Slide 25: Total normalized electricity consumption for Belgium
Scenario components Total normalized electricity consumption for Belgium – Consumption follows the one of the final NECP (WAM) Final total electricity consumption • 2025 and 2026 projections are based on the Total demand forecasting tool developed in collaboration with Climact taking into account th
Slide 26: Flow-based perimeter and bidding zone definition
Flow-based perimeter and bidding zone definition This approach is identical to the one consulted upon in the Adequacy and Flexibility study (2021) The bidding zones are assumed to be the same ones that we have today for all future time horizons. Major improvements were done to extend the flow-based
Slide 27: Climate data base
Climate data base The last European adequacy study (MAF2020) performed by ENTSO-E still used the full Pan European Climate Database consisting of 35 historical climate years. In order to be compliant with the recently adopted ERAA methodology, the climate database used for this study will be based o
Slide 28: Economic parameters
Scenario components Economic parameters – The economic parameters are proposed to be based on World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2020. – Prices for CRM calibration are expressed in € 2019. CRM CRM Calibration Calibration 2025-26 2026-27 Category Price Price [€/GJ] [€/GJ] Oil 11.7 10.5 Gas 6.4 5.8 Coal 2.6 2
Slide 29: Definition of sensitivities
Definition of sensitivities
Slide 30: Sensitivities were built in collaboration with FPS as stated in RD article 3
Additional sensitivities that could be included in the reference scenario (those are detailed further in the presentation) that were defined following the process described in the RD) French nuclear Decreased French nuclear availability in continuity of last year’s reference scenario availability 1
Slide 31: Reduced availability of France's nuclear fleet in continuity with last year
French nuclear availability 1 Reduced availability of France’s nuclear fleet in continuity with last year’s reference scenario FR: NUC availability reduced by 2 units in winter • Significant degree of uncertainty on the availability of the French nuclear fleet • Nuclear availability reduction by 2 u
Slide 32: Several events in past 4 winters reduced French nuclear availability
French nuclear availability 2 Several events took place in the past 4 winters in France which substantially reduced the nuclear availability of the nuclear fleet. The last two winters have shown an under estimate of the planned FR: NUC availability reduced unavailability see purple arrow showing at
Slide 33: Flow based model with 50% RAM instead of 70% minRAM
FB CEP rules While MAF is in NTC, we propose to use a flow based model including 70% of minRAM on each cross border CNEC but there are uncertainties on whether such margin will be available at all times 50% RAM instead of minRAM 70% Several reasons might exist that could lead to smaller domains that
Slide 34: Uncertainties on Belgium's thermal units
BE unit at risk Uncertainties on Belgium's thermal units • Due to obsolescence and economic viability turbojets could be considered to have left the market by 2026 • The official closure of Vilvoorde GT has been in the meantime announced • -158 MW turbojets • -255 MW Vilvoorde GT CRM Calibration 202
Slide 35: Other parameters to be consulted upon
Other parameters to be consulted upon
Slide 36: Preselected capacity types
Preselected capacity types Royal Decree Context Art. 6. §1er. Le gestionnaire du réseau s’assure que le scénario de référence tel que déterminé selon l'article 3, §7, répond au niveau de la sécurité d'approvisionnement requis par l'article 7undecies, §7, premier et deuxième alinéas, de la loi du 29
Slide 37: Preselected capacity types
Preselected capacity types Purpose Determination of the Reference scenario Calibration of the CRM volume & defined by the Minister reference scenario parameters This scenario does not As long as the security of supply The output from the model necessarily meet the legal criteria is not reached, capa
Slide 38: Preselected capacity types
Preselected capacity types Purpose Determination of the Reference scenario Calibration of the CRM volume & defined by the Minister reference scenario parameters This scenario does not As long as the security of supply The output from the model necessarily meet the legal criteria are not reached, ens
Slide 39: Preselected capacity types
Preselected capacity types Application to Y-4 auction for DY 2026-2027 Associated Category Volume Calculation Marginal Price Calculation technology Type 1 - Baseload CCGT, CHP Add new CCGT Marginal price of a new CCGT Type 2 - Peakers 1 OCGT Add new OCGT Marginal price of a new OCGT Type 3 - Peakers
Slide 40: Scenario choice post delivery period for market revenues calculation
Scenario choice post delivery period for market revenues calculation Royal Decree Context “Article 10, §6 Les rentes inframarginales annuelles estimées de la référence pour chaque technologie sont exprimées en €/MW/an et sont calculées, avec une périodicité annuelle, sur l’ensemble de la durée de vi
Slide 41: Scenario choice post delivery period for market revenues calculation
Scenario choice post delivery period for market revenues calculation Purpose Determination of market revenues Calculation of market revenues on the technology lifetime Only the delivery period scenario is not enough The purpose of the scenario choice post-delivery period is : • To use available scen
Slide 42: Scenario choice post delivery period for market revenues calculation
Scenario choice post delivery period for market revenues calculation Application to Y-4 auction for DY 2026-2027 2026 2028 2030 2035 2040 AdFlex 2028 AdFlex 2030 AdFlex 2032 CRM Calibration 2026-27 42
Slide 43: Shortlist of existing technologies for the Intermediate Price Cap
Shortlist of existing technologies for the determination of the Intermediate Price Cap : same shortlist than for in the calibration report related to DP 2025-26 Royal Decree Context “Article 18, § 1 Le gestionnaire du réseau détermine, sur la base de l’étude visée à l’article 17, après la consultati
Slide 44: Shortlist of existing technologies for the Intermediate Price Cap and underlying hypotheses
Shortlist of existing technologies for the determination of the Intermediate Price Cap and other relevant underlying hypotheses : same framework applied as for the Calibration report linked to DP 2025-26 Purpose Calibration of the Intermediate Price Cap Fixed O&M, incl. provision for non-yearly Cost
Slide 45: Shortlist of existing technologies for the Intermediate Price Cap – Application
Shortlist of existing technologies for the determination of the Intermediate Price Cap – Application to Y-4 auction for DP 2026-27: the shortlist of existing technologies applied is the same than the one considered in the calibration report related to DP 2025-26. Technology (existing units) CCGT OCG
Slide 46: Expert study on costs for various technologies
Expert study on costs for various technologies : Fichtner study followed by a peer review by Afry applied in the same way than for the calibration report – The Fichtner study on the costs underlying various technologies was realized in 2019-20 and published by Elia in April 2020. – After the public