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59 slides from Iqvia's investor presentation, Nov 4, 2025
Slide 1: The Global Use of Medicines 2025: Outlook to 2029
The Global Use of Medicines 2025: Outlook to 2029 Global Webinar August 27, 2025 Copyright © 2025 IQVIA. All rights reserved. IQVIA® is a registered trademark of IQVIA Inc. in the United States and various other countries.
Slide 2: Today's panelists
Today’s panelists Mark Omoto GM, Thought Leadership and Marketing, Canada Alan Thomas Senior Director, Sarah Rickwood Thought Leadership, VP, Thought Leadership, Japan EMEA Howard Chen Luke Greenwalt Head of Services, VP, Thought Leadership and MC& PI, China Innovation, U.S. Moderator: Murray Aitken
Slide 3: Research Highlights
SIQVIA INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DATA SCIENCE Research Highlights
Slide 4: Global medicines market: outlook to 2029
• Growth outlook unchanged at 5-8% CAGR, reaching $2.4Tn by Growth outlook 2029, driven by immunology and oncology despite both slowing continues to increase later in the forecast, and endocrinology, especially diabetes and obesity Medicine use • Medicine use in Latin America and Asia, including Chi
Slide 5: Novel active substances launched globally in the past 5 years
A total of 394 novel active substances have launched globally in the past 5 years, with fewer launched in various regions Number of novel active substances (NAS) launched globally and in selected countries, 2005–2024 450 Total launched 2005-2024 400 394 350 Global (1005) 300 US (810) 273 250 254 224
Slide 6: Per capita medicine use varies by region
Per capita medicine use varies by region, with Japan and Western Europe having more than double the use of most other regions Historical and projected per capita use of medicine by region, 2014–2029 Forecast 1,400 5-Year 5-Year 5-Year CAGRs CAGRs CAGRs 1.1% 1.1% 1,200 1.4% 0.4% 1.8% 1,000 1.1% DDD p
Slide 7: Global growth driven by new and existing brands in developed countries
Global growth will continue to be driven by new and existing brands in leading developed countries Global Spending and Growth, Const $US Billion 2019-2029, Excluding COVID Vaccines and Therapeutics 89 3 2,376 91 461 28 6 181 77 1 1,737 70 28 9 -220 240 177 1,199 -64 Source: IQVIA Market Prognosis, M
Slide 8: Spending and volume growth following diverging trends by region
Spending and volume growth are following diverging trends by region Spending and volume growth by region 55% Spending growth through 2029 expected to be high, driven by Eastern Europe 50% 'mix' (wider use of novel drugs India 2025 – 2029 Percent spending growth at higher average prices) Above averag
Slide 9: Oncology and obesity to lead growth through 2029
Oncology and obesity to lead growth through 2029 while immunology and diabetes growth to slow Global historic and forecast growth for top 20 therapy areas 15% 30% Forecast 5-YR CAGR 2024–2029 Forecast 5-YR CAGR 2024–2029 Oncology 10% Lipid regulators Ophthalmology Pain Diabetes 25% Dermatology Muscu
Slide 10: Cancer medicine spending rose to $252Bn in 2024
Cancer medicine spending rose to $252Bn globally in 2024 and growth is expected to slow, reaching $441Bn by 2029 Global oncology spending, US$Bn, 2015–2029 450 Forecast 20% 400 2025–2029 Key metrics % Spending growth constant US$ 350 +75% total 15% spending growth 300 (10.5–13.5% Spending US$Bn CAGR
Slide 11: Immunology spending growth to slow through 2029
Immunology spending growth to slow to 3.5–6.5 % through 2029 from biosimilar impact as volume growth continues at 6–9% annually Global immunology spending and growth 250 Forecast 25% 2024–2028 Key metrics Global spending constant US$Bn 200 20% +44% total volume % Spending growth constant US$ growth
Slide 12: Diabetes spending growth accelerating in developed markets
Diabetes spending growth accelerating in many developed markets associated with GLP-1 adoption, U.S. slows to 1-4% net Diabetes spending and growth Diabetes spending: U.S. estimated net Diabetes spending in developed markets 5-Year CAGR spending and discount to invoice const US$Bn 2025–2029 Const US
Slide 13: Global obesity spending accelerated from novel drugs
Global obesity spending has accelerated in the past 2 years from novel drugs with upside if more widely reimbursed Global obesity spending and growth Forecast 140 2025–2029 Key metrics 120 Spending constant US$Bn +201% total 100 spending growth (23–26% CAGR) 80 60 +$50.7Bn 40 Pipeline of new 20 trea
Slide 14: Growth outlook unchanged at 5-8% CAGR to 2029
Growth outlook unchanged at 5-8% CAGR to 2029, driven by immunology, oncology, diabetes and obesity Global NAS in the last five years totaled 394 up from 254 five years earlier, but China-only NAS, and U.S. 1 Rising #s of NAS but access varies launches delayed in reaching other markets. Lower- incom
Slide 15: United States
SIQVIA INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DATA SCIENCE United States
Slide 16: The US market continues to be a multi-industry growth engine
The US Market continues to be a multi-industry growth engine $1 Trillion in U.S. spend in 2024; Growth is driven by a small set of products Medicine Spending Growth Drivers at U.S. Medicine Spending at List Price (WAC) and estimated net manufacturer prices, 2015–2029, US$Bn Estimated Net Manufacture
Slide 17: Perception of high drug costs driven by cost of innovation
The perception of high drug costs has in part been driven by the cost of innovation into small high need patient populations As more high-cost treatments launch, the narrative of US drug pricing remains in the news Median Annual Cost of Treatment at Launch for Brands 2019–2024, US$ Does the US shoul
Slide 18: Is the industry entering a boom or bust cycle?
Is the industry entering a boom or bust cycle? While some launches succeed, many struggle Branded Products* Exceeding $100M Gross Sales in YR1 Launch Gross Sales >$1M; Excludes Hormones, Contraceptives, Diagnostic Equipment, Covid Vaccines & Tx, Line Extensions, Medical Products, and Biosimilars (n=
Slide 19: Zepbound and Mounjaro are the fastest US launches ever observed
Zebound & Mounjaro are the fastest US launches ever observed Impressive growth and expansion despite supply chain and market access headwind Monthly Gross Sales by Month Post-Launch $5.0 $4.5 • Combined, the GLP-1s are over $4.0 $100B in annual revenues in the Monthly Sales (US $B) $3.5 US excluding
Slide 20: Potential Trump administration healthcare policy reforms
Beyond IRA, the second Trump administration’s potential healthcare policy reforms have important implications 1 2 3 4 Tough on Regulatory Trade & AI in Price Shifts Tariffs Healthcare • Executive Orders: • Reduction in size of • Decades of globalization • Following reduction in Americans pay too muc
Slide 21: Canada
SIQVIA INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DATA SCIENCE Canada
Slide 22: 2025 Canada Snapshot
2025 Canada Snapshot Demographics Almost 20% of Canada is a pivotal market within the pharma/biotech landscape not just 42M Canadians are over 60 because of its proximity to the US and healthcare similarities to EU5 countries. years old. Fortunately, every Canadian lives Canada exerts global influen
Slide 23: Nine issues impacting the Canadian health care and prescription medicine market
Nine issues impacting the Canadian health care and prescription medicine market that are new or trending from 2025 onwards Macro/environmental issues Innovative/therapeutic Business/competitive After the electoral party: What Health care capacity and funding does 2025 mean for Diabesity, Oncology an
Slide 24: Canada leads the way in biologics market utilization
Canada leads the way in biologics market utilization Immunology per capita DDDs and share of DDDs by type for 9 developed countries 24
Slide 25: Oncology biosimilar uptake and savings
Global Oncology biosimilar uptake reached greater than 50% across major markets and biosimilars saved payers over $8Bn in 2024 Canada oncology biosimilar uptake >81% buoyed by mandatory biosimilar switch policies have led to a rapid uptake across all biosimilar therapeutic categories Average oncolog
Slide 26: Europe
SIQVIA INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DATA SCIENCE Europe
Slide 27: Spending in Europe expected to increase by $85Bn through 2029
Spending in Europe is expected to increase by $85Bn through 2029, driven by new and existing brands Spending and growth drivers in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK 2018–2028 const US$Bn Forecast 10 3 327 52 45 3 242 -26 12 32 37 -11 168 2019 New brands Existing brands Others 2024 New brands Exi
Slide 28: Impact of exclusivity losses will reach $25Bn+ over 5 years
The impact of exclusivity losses will reach $25Bn+ over 5 years, with most due to small molecules EU4+UK impact of brand losses of exclusivity 2020–2029, US$Bn Forecast 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -1.0 -0.7 -1.4 (1) -0.8 -1.8 -1.4 -2.4 -1.1 -3.3 (
Slide 29: New brand spending in EU4+UK projected higher than last 5 years
New brand spending in EU4+UK is projected to be higher than the last 5 years but a smaller share of spending EU4+UK new brand spending Forecast 15 Total 2015−19 = $53Bn 15% New brands % of total brand spending Total 2020−24 = $37Bn Total 2025−29 = $45Bn New brand spending US$Bn 10 10% 5 5% 11 12 10
Slide 30: Innovative Rx launch trajectories vary across Europe
Innovative Rx launch trajectories vary across Europe; steepest in Germany Speed of uptake for innovative launches by country Sales uptake at 6 and 12 months Median sales uptake, normalised to 18-month sales (% of 18-month sales) 120% Germany Almost flat between 12- Fast uptake 6-month 12-month Speed
Slide 31: European Union policy initiatives 2024-2029
European Union policy initiatives 2024 – 2029 focus on security and investment Security R&D Health Existing Critical Medicines Preparedness Lifescience and biotech Disease specific Implementing Act Union Strategy boost action existing initiatives Strengthen supply Focus on preparedness - European Bi
Slide 32: China
SIQVIA INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DATA SCIENCE China
Slide 33: China's volume growth has tapered
China’s volume growth has tapered, as basic medical insurance coverage has extended across the country and population in the past few years Historical and projected use of medicines by region, 2019-2029 Defined Daily Doses (DDD) in billions Underlying Demands Drivers • 1.4 Bn population base • Aging
Slide 34: Volume-based procurement shifts budget toward innovative drugs
As the centralized “volume-based procurement” shifts social insurance budget towards innovative new drugs, new launches will be the driving factor of growth China medicine spending by product type 2015-2029 Key Dynamics Synchronized China launch Original Accelerated new drug approval brands Faster t
Slide 35: Key elements to drive China pharma company growth
Under these changing dynamics, the following are key elements to drive China pharma company growth Integrated Winning Portfolio Market Access • Innovative drugs • Basic Medical are developing Insurance rapidly in China New Launches remains the and even around • Regular NRDL major funding New GTM Mod
Slide 36: A rising innovation hub: trial starts from China-headquartered companies
Winning Portfolio A rising innovation hub: Trial starts from China-headquartered companies have risen to 30%, close to the US already Number of Phase I to III trial starts based on company headquarters location, 2008–2024 36
Slide 37: Local players become a strong pillar of China innovation
Winning Portfolio Local players become an increasingly strong pillar of China innovation, bringing both competition and collaboration opportunities A rise in the proportion of local innovative drug More China originated novel products have been approvals emerged in recent years licensed out to Globa
Slide 38: NRDL normalized with average price cut stabilized at ~60%
New Launches NRDL has been normalized with average price cut stabilized at ~60%, and the rules are getting more transparent and scientific to favor innovations NRDL negotiation success rate evolution since 2017 NRDL negotiation Jul 2017 Aug 2018 Nov 2019 Dec 2020 Nov 2021 Dec 2022 Dec 2023 Dec 2024
Slide 39: China has conducted 10 batches of national VBP
New Launches Up to now, China has conducted 10 batches of national VBP, and is expected to continue at a relatively fixed frequency Milestone of China VBP Policies “Notice on Policies and Measures to Further Deepen the “Opinions on Promoting the Normalized and Reform of the Medical and Health System
Slide 40: Basic Medical Insurance remains the major funding source for innovation
Integrated Market Access Basic Medical Insurance remains the major funding source for innovation with innovative CHI, although nascent, but a fast-growing source of funding China’s healthcare spending on products and services- BMI remains the major funding source, Bn USD Meet the growing Self-pay de
Slide 41: Tailored GTM supported with optimized approach
New GTM Model In an increasingly competitive market, tailored GTM supported with optimized and efficient approach will also be of critical importance Traditional market Multi-disciplinary/ Patient and Digital enabled Commercial Initiatives departmental consumer engagement partnerships (hospital/ HCP
Slide 42: Collaboration models to enrich MNC pipelines
Various collaboration models can be explored to enrich MNCs pipelines and transform portfolios to accelerate the path Early Phase Late Phase Incubation R&D Equity Financing M&A Commercialization Globalization • Suzhou Ribo Life • Novartis announced the • Nhwa Pharmaceutical • Biokin Pharmaceutical S
Slide 43: Japan
SIQVIA INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DATA SCIENCE Japan
Slide 44: Japan has the highest per capita medicine use of developed markets
As we saw earlier, Japan has the highest per capita medicine use of the Developed Markets* An indicator of high drug utilization in Japan As a result Defined Daily Dose (DDD) volume growth will be lower than majority of other Developed markets through 2029, with additional impact from NHI Price revi
Slide 45: Japan Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Reform (Honebuto)
Japan Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Reform Honebuto no Hoshin (骨太の方針) or more simply Honebuto The Japan Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform (Honebuto) is a set of policy guidelines utilized by the Japanese Government to support budget and fiscal management decisions The H
Slide 46: Honebuto: Strengthening drug discovery capabilities and promoting innovation
Japan Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Reform Honebuto no Hoshin (骨太の方針) or more simply Honebuto A key area of focus in Chapter 3; Section 2-1 of the 2025 Honebuto is: "Strengthening Drug Discovery Capabilities and Promoting Innovation” (創薬力の強化とイノベーションの推進) and includes the following, amongst othe
Slide 47: Focus on innovation will drive volume growth
Focus on “innovation” will drive volume growth with patient access and disease shifts providing opportunities for expansion NHI (National Health Insurance) Market Elements of Growth Japan Fiscal Year (April ~ March) Volume Growth NAS (Launched in Reporting Year) NHI Price Revision Impact +1.1% +0.2%
Slide 48: Pressure on NHI price from demographics and budgets
With focus on “innovation”, demographic shifts and shrinking social security budgets are putting pressure on NHI Price NHI (National Health Insurance) Market Elements of Growth Japan Fiscal Year (April ~ March) Volume Growth NAS (Launched in Reporting Year) NHI Price Revision Impact NHI Price Out-of
Slide 49: Cost Effective Assessment and NHI price pressure
With focus on “innovation”, demographic shifts and shrinking social security budgets are putting pressure on NHI Price NHI (National Health Insurance) Market Elements of Growth Japan Fiscal Year (April ~ March) Volume Growth NAS (Launched in Reporting Year) NHI Price Revision Impact Cost Effective A
Slide 50: Japan top-line growth flat; protected brands growth continues
Forecast top-line growth will remain flat, growth in Protected Brands expected to continue as access remains unchanged Japan medicine spending by product type 2015–2029, constant US$Bn 100 90 5-Year Forecast 5-Year 5-Year CAGRs CAGRs CAGRs Medicine spending const US$Bn 80 70 71 72 72 +1.2% 68 +1.5%
Slide 51: Latin America
SIQVIA INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DATA SCIENCE Latin America
Slide 52: Latin America Pharmaceutical Market
Latin America Pharmaceutical Market Total market 12.3 Bi units, USD 93.1 Bi Retail Channel Non-Retail Channel 9.8 Bi units, USD 58.1 Bi 2.5 Bi, USD 35.0 Bi • Drugs sold at pharmacies • Mostly drugs used in in-patient settings • Mostly paid out-of-pocket by the patient • Mostly payer funded (both pub
Slide 53: Latin America Pharmaceutical Market: categories and therapy areas
Latin America Pharmaceutical Market Total market 12.3 Bi units, USD 93.1 Bi OTC/OTX Prescription Drugs 4.1 Bi units, USD 16.9 Bi 8.2 Bi, USD 76.2 Bi Top 8 Categories 2024 Spend & Growth Top 8 Therapy Areas 2024 Spend & Growth 1. Cough, Cold & Allergy $2.4 bi +2.4% 1. Oncology $11.4 bi +16.6% 2. Derm
Slide 54: LatAm projected to grow 8.3% in 2025 and 7.7% over 2025-29
LatAm is projected to grow 8.3% in 2025 and 7.7% over 2025-29 LATAM Pharma Market Forecast – Constant* USD growth (%) 10 History Projected Growth 9 BR (39,4) Country CAGR CAGR 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 8 MX (16,2) 2021-24 2025-29 Brazil 13.4% 11,8% 10,4% 9,3% 8,3% 7,9% 9,0% 7 Mexico 7.9% 5,9% 6,2% 6,
Slide 55: Key country dynamics: Brazil and Mexico
Key country dynamics Brazil ($39 bi, +9.0% CAGR*) Mexico ($16 bi, +6.5% CAGR*) Tailwinds Tailwinds • Top 10 global pharma market • Improvement in gov’t purchases, mainly • Fast-ageing population IMSS and ISSSTE, focused on oncology and chronic degenerative diseases • Largest private market in LATAM
Slide 56: Key country dynamics: Argentina and Colombia
Key country dynamics Argentina ($14 bi, +2.4% CAGR*) Colombia ($7 bi, +6.3% CAGR*) Tailwinds Shifting & uncertain dynamics • Macro-economic recovery supporting • Deficits and delay payment among EPS, pharma market volume recovery hospitals and gov’t threatens system • Strong USD market growth driven
Slide 57: Conclusion
SIQVIA INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DATA SCIENCE Conclusion
Slide 58: Connect with the IQVIA Institute
Connect with the IQVIA Institute Keep up with our activities by Find us on social media: joining our mailing list: #IQVIAInstitute @IQVIA_Institute Download the full report 58
Slide 59: Thank you
S/QVIA INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN DATA SCIENCE Thank you